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Polls: After Debate, Obama Gains More Voter Confidence On National Security

We now have two non-snap-polls that have measured a key question: Whether Obama gained or lost voter confidence on national security in the wake of the debate. Here's the operative number from the new Gallup poll:

Thirty-five percent said they now have more confidence in Obama's ability to deal with national defense, while a shade less (34%) said the same about McCain. Meanwhile, 29% said they had less confidence in Obama, less than the amount who said they now had more confidence in him. Another third (34%) weren't moved either way.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll measured the question a bit differently, and found that confidence in Obama's ability to "deal wisely with an international crisis" went up slightly, while it dropped slightly for McCain.

This could be key, because McCain was under enormous pressure to jar the electorate into seeing Obama as not merely unprepared, but risky and dangerous -- hence McCain's repeated use of that last word.

To be sure, it would be foolish to pretend that Obama doesn't have work to do to shore up his vulnerability in this area, particularly since the McCain team is preparing to unleash a barrage of adver-sleazements designed to paint Obama as dangerously unfit to be commander-in-chief. But that debate was a big opportunity for McCain to do something to dramatically undermine confidence in Obama on this front. These numbers suggest he may not have done anything of the sort.


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You pulled the economic graph instead of the national security graph.

Kind of sad seeing a Wachovia commercial.

Live by the sword, die by the sword. The 2006 Acquisition which boosted their stock was the harbinger of death.

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Your headline talks about National Security, but you're showing the poll for the Economy. Most confusing.

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This is monumental. One of the things we had to do was crack that National Security barrier and man Obama shattered it.

Obama has been spoiling for a National Security and Foreign Policy debate, and the numbnuts in our media have hitherto overlooked this.

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apologies for the error...the right graph is now in

Oilbama, who voted FOR the Bush Cheney Energy Bill that McCain opposed, debate performance was incredibly weak, "I have a bracelet too" was the most pathetic line in modern debate history.
Despite the fact that the woman that gave Oilbama the bracelet specifically asked Oilbama not to politisize her sons death Oilbama could not wait to mispernounce her sons name on National TV to further his "win at any cost" phony campaign.

Dem Bill C, troll jizz at its stickiest.

And she has gone on the record saying that she thought it was great that Obama used in response to McCain during the debate, in order to show there are different points of view of military families. Let get the whole story before you go posting (maybe listen to something other than Rush)

However, I think Obama could have done something he didn't there:

"You know, I kinda feel bad about talking about this, seeing as it was a personal exchange between this mother and myself, and I'm not inclined to pull out this sort of thing like it is some sort of political trick, but I am now forced to do so to demonstrate to you, John, and to the American People, that not all Military families want to see money wasted and more lives lost in wars governed by poor strategy and misguided reasoning."

I thought about that myself. But unless he was prepared with the exact words, it would have been a potential landmine if it came out wrong. By the way Obama began, I think he wasn't expecting McCain to pull this stunt.

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Jeez - the woman who gave him the bracelet was happy so I don't know why anyone wants to second guess that and want to reach into the past and change something you can't change now.

Coulda shoulda woulda - but you can't change the past.

Just a little harmless monday morning quarterbacking.

Too much apologizing.

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And too much troll feeding...

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Well you know we're doing great.

DemBillC got up this early to spam the threads, there are cold water carriers out this morning pouring cold water on good news and good poll results -

Yep - McLame is burnt toast.

;)

When your last great hope is for Palin to dazzle the world during the debate, the operative word is "toast."

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Extra burnt.

And all out of jam.

You all are underestimating the American People's ability to embrace STOOPID. Palid has looked so bad for so long that all she has to do is not look STOOPID this one time and then all the pundits will declare that Palid's performance laid to rest any "concerns about her ability to assume the reigns of government." You see, with 30 second sound-bite answers, it's much easier to not sound STOOPID. If you have to put forth a coherent five minute answer as in the Presidential Debate, the longer you talk, the more STOOPID you sound when you are, in fact, STOOPID. But Americans just love the 30 second sound-bite, and the VP "debate" is tailor-made for such sound-bites.

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You are underestimating my ability to estimate the American People's ability to embrace STOOPID.

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Knock it off, please.

Just because Bush won does not mean people are stupid. It just means they disagreed with you and that doesn't automatically mean they're stupid.

Where do you think they get Bush's approvals? Martians?

Please stop with the AMericans are stupid excuse. It's an excuse for losing.

Actually, yeah, voting for Bush means being stupid.

Question is, have people become less idiotic recently?

Americans in general do not embrace stupid, but many are willing to see the casual, downhome manner of speaking as representing good ole American "common sense." The consensus growing in the electorate consciousness is she is "dumb as rocks." 30 second sound bites will not be help her undo this damage unless she is utterly brillant.

This bounce will not be as elastic as previous ones. Perceptions are now finally crystallizing and will be reinforced by the behavior of the candidates. People are getting to know them.

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Yes - Look, the Katie Couric interview was deadly. Deadly.

That's what caused me to get messages from old friends who were aghast at her performance - I mean I get home from being out to a message that was practically a scream: She's dumber than rocks!

She can't make that up. If she does well Thursday people will just say: "They coached her well."

She's already done the damage to herself and McLame and there is no way they can undo that.

Palin is one untrainable pitbull. Dubya was ignorant and mediocre, but I've grown to believe he is not stupid, just obscenely incurious and vulgar. Palin on the other hand is so much worse than what even we ever expected, as uncoachable as Miss Teen USA South Carolina 2007, of whom Palin reminded me in her Couric interview.

McCain is damned if he keeps her and damned if he dumps her, and although he is worse off keeping her, the stubborn McGamble will never admit to his blunder.

I'll try that link again.

Miss Teen USA South Carolina 2007

the Katie Couric interview was deadly. Deadly.

Agreed. And if you combine it with the SNL skits and the conservative pundits who have come out against her, then it's safe to say that the conventional wisdom is now set. It's too late for an exceptional debate performance to change that. They may give her props for her preperation, but everyone will still think that she's a lightweight.

BTW, according to Howard Kurtz, CBS has even more footage from the interview that is likely damaging to Palin. The worst may be yet to come.

The panic in McCain's camp comes from the fact that victory will depend not only getting some undecideds but turning those who are have made the tentative decision to go with Obama. Obama meanwhile is focused just on those undecideds. He doesn't have to concern himself with the McCainites.

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If Eric gets mercilessly razzed for his poll characterizations, doesn't Greg deserve a bit, too?

... Obama Gains More Voter Confidence...

As opposed to losing more confidence or gaining less confidence???

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Ah, well, we give Greg infinite shit, too. It isn't just Eric, though of course we do yell at him more often because of the polls.

And that's one of my favorite things about this blog. There is blogger worship all over the net and it's obnoxious.

Actually it's not a grammatical error, it suggests a continuation on previous gains.

I.e Obama Gains confidence, Obama gains more confidence, Obama gains even more confidence.

I'm gunna get me an avatar.

Bah? Not working!! I DEMAND THE MEANING OF THIS!

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Actually it's not a grammatical error...

You're right.  It's a semantic error.

That's why it takes a bit of external context (the history of voters' confidence in BigO's foreign-policy ability) to spot it.  IMO.

Despite the fact that the woman that gave Oilbama the bracelet specifically asked Oilbama not to politisize her sons death Oilbama could not wait to mispernounce her sons name on National TV to further his "win at any cost" phony campaign.

Posted by Dem BillC

Wrong. Even the conservative blogs are conceding that story Billy. I'm afraid that you have misread your GOP talking points today.

Oh, and you may want to use Firefox as your browser. It has a nice spell-check feature built right in. It always helps to legitimize your argument when it at least appears like you have some intelligence.

http://thepajamapundit.com/

At this point in the race, I only take these kind of polls seriously if they are of undecided voters or soft-leaners. 80-90% of the electorate has made up their mind and their poll responses, assuming they are truthful and not an attempt at gaming the numbers, are irrelevant to understanding how the race might progress.

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Josh has a snippet on the main page:

MCCAIN CAMP TO IFILL:  GO EASY ON PALIN

Advice to Steve ConeHead Schmidt:  Don't mess with Gwen Ifill! She'll eat you for lunch!

(Also, there a new thread up on this, but comments aren't enabled yet.  Also, this virgin thread starts at 51 recommendations???  Somebody musta been text-messaging instead of paying attention to the signals!)

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Oops...  The new thread is really just an archive version of the main-page post.  It must have transiently snuck onto the TPM EC index page by accident.

anyone know why mcain wouldn't look at Barack during the debate? sure seemed odd for him to not turn his head a little bit to speak face to face with his opponent. probably afraid his temper would get the best of him if he didn't keep looking away.

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The only person who knows why is McLame.

We've all speculated and I think it looked extremely racist; others think it was anger control - who knows?

It looked really bad and almost everyone saw it - it wasn't lost on much of anyone that he wouldn't.

never mind - found the answer in TPM Election Central.

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I'm in the anger-management camp, but there is a simpler explanation:  Could McSame be feeling so guilty about all the lies he's been telling about Obama that he just couldn't look him in the eye?

Lots of fodder for speculation, none of it good for McSame.

While more people gained confidence in Obama with respect to foreign affairs than lost it, I don't think the results from this part of the poll are all good news.
People who became more confident in McCain similarly also outnumbered people who became less confident, and the percentage of people who became less confident of McCain is lower than that of Obama. Obama can't afford too many people having less confidence in him, and we can't afford people having more confidence in McCain.
I wonder if the results are misleading. It is possible that a lot of the people who say they have more (less) confidence in a particular candidate already have a lot (little) confidence, and they really should have answered "same amount."

McLame comes from a era when it was percieved as 'nothing unusual' to remind a man of his color and a woman of her gender.

His voting record shows he isn't the champion of Women's rights or racial equality. This guy thought MLK as a thug and an anti-social element. And we know John McCain still believes and lives in the past- the Cold war, the Vietnam war, Americans sole purpose is to defend Israel.

I don't think he was particularly thrilled to see a AA man, much more eloquent, educated and eligible, flaunt his abilities and go toe-to-toe and sometimes better against him for the highest office in the land. He would show same disdain (if not more) for a woman.

Not to mention tell him he wrong about being greeted as liberators, that the war would be short and easy, etc. (esp on military matters)

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I have no idea if McCain has any serious racial baggage, but I can't help but wonder if Obama's calling him "John" and, at times, being somewhat confrontational, were really hard for McCain to take, coming from a much younger and African-American man.

Quote:"particularly since the McCain team is preparing to unleash a barrage of adver-sleazements designed to paint Obama as dangerously unfit to be commander-in-chief"

They can do whatever they want, they'll saddly and badly fail, it won't work cause voters will see it as the desperate chaos operation of an angry old desperate man, seeking to revive his desperate campaign. It ain't gonna work granpa' McCain't !!

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Jzap's guilt theory on why McCain wouldn't look at Obama during the debate has merit. My own personal theory goes like this:

1. McCain wants to be seen as a leader (bellicose remarks on Russia/Georgia incident, campaign suspension to go to Washington etc.). The problem is that his congressional record shows a follower, a go along to get along Republican. He only displays maverickiness when someone in his own party pisses him off or he plans to run for president. His reaching across the aisle schtick is largely supporting or co-sponsering bill just to get his name in the news.

2. Bush screwed McCain out of his chance to be president eight years ago, and four years ago, right wing and republican leaning pundits had Bush's approval ratings artificially inflated to the point where it would have been impossible for McCain to secure the nomination.

So here in 2008, McCain sees his chance albeit his last and only chance to be president. And that, to me is what it's all about. McCain sees this election as his big moment of ultimate glory. He's worked hard for it, prostituted himself for it, lied through his teeth to get it. But Obama is standing in his way. McCain sees how excited people are about Obama's campaign and envies it.

That inability to look at Obama during the debate was part guilt, part contempt.

McCain is galled by the fact that Obama is well on his way to taking that which McCain feels he is entitled to.

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