Poll: Race Remains Dead Even; Only A Third Of Women View Palin Favorably
Some interesting numbers in the new CNN poll:
* There was no convention bounce for Obama in this survey, which was taken Friday through Sunday; it found that the race remains dead even, with the Obama-Biden ticket at 49% versus 48% for McCain-Palin.
* And yet...Barack Obama's convention acceptance speech was a success: Sixty-four percent rated it excellent or good, higher than recent speeches. And a majority -- 51 percent -- said the convention made them more likely to pick him.
* Palin's numbers are mixed: Fifty-two percent say the Palin pick is excellent or pretty good; 46 percent rate it as fair or poor.
* But barely more than a third -- 36 percent -- of women view Sarah Palin favorably.
* And fifty percent say she's unqualified for the presidency, versus 45 percent who say she's prepared.
We'll bring you the internals when they're available.
Well, here's how she was picked and why the press leads candidates to choose ridiculous VP picks:
http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/09/01/how-the-press-leads-candidates-to-make-silly-vp-choices/
September 1, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain was influenced by the press to pick sarah palin then, we might as give up. What about the other women republicans who were extremely more experienced and would be a challenge for Obama/Biden
Video: McCain Acts Presidential…Finally
September 1, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's an insult.
And if this election is really a dead heat, then I'm really Marie, the Queen of Romania.
September 1, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Marie! ;-) (Good to see you again, Tena.)
CNN seems to get strange results (among other things, they really push leaners compared to the other polls). Even Rasmussen is still at +3 today, and Gallup will probably show it more than that, based on yesterday's results.
But I await a series of comments here and elsewhere telling us that this shows that we are doomed, doomed.
-- Stu
September 1, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
All hail Queen Marie!
September 1, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Morning, subjects.
;)
September 1, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why, Good Morning,
Oh Great One!!
September 1, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Romania has a Queen?
Palin should move there. She wants to be Queen of Alaska, doesn't she, once they secede? Queen of Romania has to be a better gig.
CFMA!!
September 1, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Hate to say it but McCain campaign handled today at the convention perfectly. Eliminating the need for Bush and Cheney to speak is a major plus for them. Not inviting them would have pissed of the Bushies but would have reminded the middle that John McCain is in fact a Republican with all that entails.
2. If McCain doesn't stray too far over the line his being on the scene observing could work for him. MSM will give him a pass most likely.
3. Announcing VP on Friday worked for them. It managed to change the talk of the day from Obama's fantastic speech.
4. Will be very interesting how much of a grilling on bridge to nowhere, Troopergate Palin gets if any from MSM.
September 1, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Once their attention turns from Gustav, they'll be over it because Obama's people will make it an issue. The McCain surrogates are actually stating that her time as mayor is great executive experience (even her L. Bush make this case this morning). But she left the town in debt. Even some conservatives (eg Michael Savage) are p.o.'d about this choice.
September 1, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Leaving the economy in the red makes her a successful Republican administrator, don't ya know?
September 1, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah well that's probably because Savage is a misogynist. I once heard him say:
"If you are a white male and a woman or a minority get a job over you, 9x's out of 10, they're not qualified."
I hate to think that he's right here in this VP instance, though it is sweet justice that it's coming from his own party. =-D.
September 1, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh. Now we get four days of Republicans trashing Obama and telling us that they're for the common man and economic prosperity and victory in Iraq and that Palin has much 'executive' experience and that she's a reformer and that John McCain is for 'change'.
Americans are a stupid people. They voted Bush in twice. It's a good time to be a billionaire in the USA.
September 1, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
No it didn't. It made his speech stand out.
People are talking - yeah - about how egregiously insane this pick is.
September 1, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, I love you, but that's an aggressively optimistic reading of what happened.
NO ONE talked about the speech on Friday. The buzz was zapped from Obama-Biden and went to McCain-Palin (for better or worse, but mostly out of shock).
Look, the latter ticket is focused on the media cycle, the former on winning the election. So we need a couple weeks to see how this plays out.
September 1, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok fine - she's going win this election for McLame.
September 1, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I never said that! Just that they won the media game this week.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
September 1, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, people like you are going to win the election for McCain -- or lose it for Obama if you can relate to that better.
September 1, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Like me?
Yeah, I'm so damned important that the entire universe knows who I am and what I say everytime I open my mouth.
I personally am going to lose this election for the Democrats.
September 1, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
September 1, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
The needed to press to be talking about it only if the people didn't see it. But pretty much everyone saw it for themselves. One could say that it was better not have the talking heads and pens blather on about the speech.
September 1, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo. By changing the media narrative on Friday to McCain/Palin, the narrative of Obama's speech was frozen before the GOP pundits could deflate it and turn it negative.
September 1, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts exactly - who needs media yammering when people can see and judge for themselves? 38 million people watched the speech, more than watched the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony (or probably all the swimming and gymnastics coverage combined).
Their opinions will cement themselves. Let the media scrutinize Palin and the questionable choice that it was. It keeps the Reeps on the defensive.
September 1, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's not true. MSNBC and CNN did have day after analysis of the speech on Friday. As did NPR.
September 1, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
When on msnbc? I had it on almost all day in the background and I didn't hear any analysis or even discussion. For the first 3 hours it was all speculation on the pick and for the rest of the day it was a discussion about who in the f*ck palin was.
September 1, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just trying to figure out how a majority both thinks she's unqualified and thinks she's a good choice.
Shouldn't those two things be mutually exclusive?
September 1, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's why polls are ridiculous. That's one reason, anyway.
They can get any damn answer they want - they just frame the question right.
All polls reflect is the thinking of the pollster - almost every time.
September 1, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
"All polls reflect is the thinking of the pollster - almost every time."
This is a good comment (Oh, Exalted Majesty!).
Another thing said is that people answer polls in ways that make them feel good about themselves. It's obvious from this one that the sure don't worry about contradicting themselves!
September 1, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was what struck me. "I think it's great that my future president chooses unqualified people." Isn't that why mangled the Katrina response, etc?
September 1, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
OOooohh, another good comment! When are we going to move from the cream to the chaff in here, eh?!
September 1, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not everybody thinks the VP needs to be ready on Day One. Remember how Clinton supporters yammered on and on about a Clinton-Obama Dream Ticket, while at the same time trashing Obama's alleged inexperience?
So, even though a majority thinks she's unqualified, some of them might think she can learn on-the-job to be POTUS. Or as someone else pointed out, they could say this was a good choice politically.
September 1, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you look at the state by state polling and the estimate of EV's per state, BO has a comfortable lead. These national polls gives the impression that this race is a dead heat when truthfully its not.
the Republicans just tout the national polls and dont even mention the state by state polling or an estimated EV count. its all about perception, and right now the perception is that this race is close, but we all know better.
September 1, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
And that is where our ticket is running - state by state on the ground.
Obama and Plouffe in my opinion realized from the start that the press wouldn't be their friend. So they are working around the national press. They are organizing on the local level, just like Obama always has.
And it works.
September 1, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now, you see, that's where you're wrong. What has happened is that the Obama ground game just got nullified. We were counting on McCain not being able to field the evangelical church ground organization that Rove fielded in 2004. We thought Obama's church-based organization would carry him on the ground in November the way it did in the primary. However, Palin electrifies the evangelicals. They're back. The Republican ground game is back in states like Ohio. You're whistling past the graveyard. But gimme an O. Gimme a B.
September 1, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think it nullifies it. They needed everything they could get from the evangelicals last election to get just a tiny bit past a tie. This time, we will have the superior game.
September 1, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not only a better ground game, but also bringing in all of the new and younger voters and those who haven't voted in a while. These people aren't being picked up by the pollsters because they don't think they are likely voters and don't poll them.
September 1, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Spot-on, GVet, anyone who believes a CNN poll at this point is ignorant to the fact that any money the Republicans get between now and November wil go into TV advertising, the likes of which is pure gravy for the cablenews black hole of advertising.
And just in this post, the contradictions are so blatant, it reads "McCain loses support among most groups but maintains equal footing..."
DUH!!!
Come on folks, you wouldn't all be hanging out here on the blogs if you didn;t already suspect the MSM as a whole is a lying sack of cow manure, with one objective... profit.
And any references to the obvious reality of this campaign, like Chris and Keith tried to explain to Joe, won't get much MSM coverage, because they don't want the billionaires and 5-millionaires to stop making all those illegal contributions, which inevitably translate into... TV ADVERTISING.
Like I just said, most of you wouldn't even be here, looking for the truth, if the MSM was doing their job as the 4th Estate.
DOUBLE DUH!!!
September 1, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well considering that your opinion isn't shared by one other person here, why do you think you are right and everyone else is wrong?
September 1, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Come on Tena, how could you question such a track record?
September 1, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I respect what the guy is saying, but to me the bigger point is, we have to beat these religio motherfuckers. We have to be ready for them and out-work, out-organize them.
They are so smug in their superiority but they are 100% the same as Iranian mullahs -- America's horrid secret. Need to have better ground game. I think we easily do. There is no number of Ernest Angely reruns they they can throw at us, that Obama's organization can't top. Saying that, Ohio is filled with these Holy Roller shitballs and was never going to be easy.
September 1, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you propose that Hiallry replace Biden ? That would be a landslide, right ?
September 1, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
The above was to Billy boy.
September 1, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
We were counting on the ground game in part because we thought McCain would properly vet his VP choice and pick someone who would be qualified and not one embarrassment after another.
September 1, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's no gay marriage initiative on the ballot this year in Ohio like there was in 2004.
But thanks for trying.
September 1, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama's church-based" ground operation? That's a small component of the Obama ground forces.
Uh-uh. Try the "my.barackobama.com" based ground game. Try a donor base of a couple million, and field offices *everywhere*. Except Arkansas (?!?).
Then head over to http://fivethirtyeight.com and click on the "Organizing" label and read through some of the posts.
September 1, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
September 1, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
And what's the difference between "fair" and "pretty good"?
September 1, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fair weather is considered nice, decent, pleasant weather. What the heck is a fair VP choice?
It's like the Colbert question - Great VP pick, or Greatest VP pick? Utterly meaningless, yet posed as if it were serious. Tena nails it here.
September 1, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
In my household, if you rate something "pretty good," it counts as "not so great". This is an example of a lousy survey scale. The next point on the scale should have been "good." Thus, I would lump everything but "excellent" in the less-than-good column.
September 1, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I reallly wonder how these polls are conducted. How can 52% think she is an excellent choice, and 50% think she is unqualified?
And where did they find a group, 45% of whom say she is "prepared" to be president? If she's prepared, so am I! Come to think of it, I think I could do a better job than she OR McCain.
I think we need to stop talking about her and get back to McCain's bad temper, bad judgement, plan policies, and bad decision-making.
September 1, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Still good news for Obama folks. Typically a VP pick gives a party a bounce thus the GOP may have gotten a bounce out of their pick any other weekend except after the Dem convention.
I do think that Obama got a bounce from the Dem convention but it was counterbalanced by the GOP pick but it still shows Obama ahead.
Rasmussen and Gallup also show that Obama has a bounce.
Also, very important is that Obama is so close to 50% which is great. Also, it appears that Palin will not be drawing in women as the GOP had hoped.
Greater than 50% of people think that Palin is unfit for the job. Expect that to increase after her first gaffe which she will have for ALL politicians have them.
I am actually happen with these numbers.
September 1, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Junk poll. No one polls over holiday weekends. It is impossible to get a valid sample over a holiday weekend. Even leaving that aside, CNN/Opinion Dynamics are methodological train wrecks whose questions are structured to generate a seemingly "close" contest and thereby fuel CNN's own favored breathless narrative.
The idea that only three percent of registered voters in this country are undecided is facially ridiculous. The Gallup Daily is justly criticized for failing to to even attempt to distinguish between people who are locked in and people who just have a top of mind answer because they haven't really started deciding. Even with that, they show ten percent undecided. Like Gallup Daily, the CNN poll purports to be a registered voter, rather than "likely voter" poll and yet, polling the same sample they find only three percent undecided? Riiiight. But, hey, Wolfie and John King and Bill Schneider have something to hyperventillate over now, and that's the importhant thing.
September 1, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
The race isn't tied. The internals (the few that were released; don't hold your breath for too much more -- CNN can be pretty tight with the info) contradict the topline numbers. Palin's favorability is not overwhelming (+6), and voters don't think she's qualified (-5). Couple that with the fact that ~75% voters think that McCain chose her just to ad a woman to the ticket (recognize the political ploy), as well as an overwhelming majority of voters thinking Obama's speech was "excellent or good," not to mention that McCain had at least 3 days of very high-profile bashing... Toss all this together and you get a tied race? I mean, we already know that Palin's selection didn't strongly move voters (CNN notes this, as does Rasmussen), but for some mysterious reason, in this particular poll, McCain's choice somehow made a difference? It all flies in the face of reason.
The bottom line is that this poll is a junk poll, as others have already noted. It was conducted during a weekend, a holiday weekend to boot, so it's not surprising that you get wacky contradictory information like we're getting here with this poll. Take this with a HUGE grain of salt. Or, better yet, dismiss it.
Another point... Do you think McCain would have chosen Palin if his internals were good? I'm guessing not. If he was in a position of strength, he would have gone with a more "conventional wisdom" choice (i.e., Pawlenty). One doesn't make a "game changing" move when the game is going in your favor...
September 1, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Problem with the state by state polling is that state polls come out much more infrequently than nat'l polls.
So on a state-by-state, EV count basis, we have very little data yet as to what the impact of major recent events (DNC, Palin pick, Gustav, RNC) is.
We'll have to just wait and see.
Nevertheless, however much the Palin pick reduced TV and online coverage of Obama's speech (and it really did), and however much the EV impact is over the next two weeks, let's not forget that over the next couple of months the race is not about Biden v. Palin. It's Obama v. McCain. Once the "bumps" from all the recent and current events settle down, I think we'll be back on the winning path.
September 1, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, - it's all about Sarah now, she took the spotlight from Obama. Fine - she's going to have to live in the glare of that spotlight.
Keep shining it everywhere - I hope they put a microscope on her nationally and that way our ticket can continue on a state by state basis and win this damn election for real.
September 1, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
No there's a diary and a front pager over at DKos about her desire to "infiltrate" the national parties as a means of securing Alaskan independence for the Alaska Independence Party. Wonder if that'll make the newshour?
(I'd provide a link if I wasn't stuck in the 13th Century.)
September 1, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
meant to say, "Now there's a link".
September 1, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn, I'm flustered. "Now there is a diary . . ."
September 1, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here you go:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/1/84544/50180/809/581942
I would be surprised if she has anything but a very cursory relationship with this group, but this is a pretty interesting glimpse at a real wingnut group of people.
September 1, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I will also add that given the right-wing's hyperventilating over Obama's relationship to radical groups, I do think it's fair game to ask Governor Palin about her associations with people like this.
September 1, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
The success of the speech lies not in how much people talked about it on Friday (when attention shifted to the Palin pick) but the fact that Obama came off as presidential. I think that was the big question in the minds of the undecideds. "Is this guy presidential material." My gut tells me that anyone open to persuasion was won over by his speech. I'd be interested to see if the polls reflect a growing confidence in his ability to lead. I suspect they will, and this is more important than whatever mini-bounce is produced by the Palin choice.
September 1, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
That was basically my point - the speech is solidly in everyone's consciousness.
It's there whether they are talking about it or not and it's being compared to her whether they are doing it openly or not.
September 1, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do not want to hear one whine out of her about bad publicity.
And I don't want to hear that there are things we can't talk about - the hell.
She's running for leader of the free world then she is going to have to get used to the heat.
September 1, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin makes the Bushies happy, but I think they would have voted McCain anyway (claiming to hold their noses while they did it.)
Unless Palin can help with Clinton voters (loud booing during her stump mentions have already gotten that reference cut) she won't help in the end. I don't think she will help with the middle. (Anecdote - my retired successful professional mother who leans right gets that this pick is tokenism. She was already for Obama though. This wasn't a tipping point)
I worry about the MSM not grilling her. By the time Gustav is over the Repubs will be calling her fitness for the job old/settled news. After all it will have been what four, five days?
This is a roll of the dice pick no question. I think McCain internals must have shown that he would lose a "standard" election and that with this pick they solidify the right and make a pitch to Clinton voters.
I do not think it will work. Palin isn't up to it, but that's what they must have been thinking.
September 1, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agree! But I think Palin ups the enthusiasm factor among the rightwingnut faction - now they'll hit the streets for McCain, not just show up to vote.
Sarah Palin is a loser with the rest of the women - reeks of tokenism and reinforces the image of better qualified women passed over for the new, young model.
September 1, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just a thought... I wasn't polled, but if I was I might answer that the Palin pick is a good choice put still say she's unqualified.
The difference is if I interpret the question as asking if she's a good choice *politically* or just a good choice for VP. I happen to think that, not even talking about Hillary voters, she gave McCain a boost just by generating him some buzz and drowning out media coverage of Obama's speech. It might end up backfiring, but he needed a Hail Mary pass so all things considered it might have been a good political move for him.
Now on the flip side, she's clearly unqualified and the move is clearly a cynical ploy, so to questions like that I'd answer no, she's not qualified and I think she'd make a terrible VP.
But if I interpreted the question to be asking if it was a good political move, I might say yes.
September 1, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
If it was a good move, it was a very temporary one - that's what is so stupid here.
He got himself some PR - but once more gets known, this choice will worse and worse. It was a short term gain - and that's all it could be since she was impulse buy.
She was an impulse choice - that is not how you pick someone who can be president.
September 1, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you... I'm just trying to explain the logical disjoint between the majority of people saying that the pick was good but also saying that she's unqualified. At any given point in time, if a pollster called me and asked me that question, I might answer that the pick was good. Whether I am right or wrong in that assertion is not my point, just that I might answer that way.
September 1, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I understand and if I seem short, it's because I'm really quite annoyed with this whole thing. I'm insulted. I don't know when I've felt so insulted.
This woman is an insult to serious women.
September 1, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
"49 to 48" is all I need to see to know that this CNN poll is rubbish.
Does any sane political observer actually believe that at this stage in the election season there are only three percent of the voters that have not made a decision; and what about those who are going to vote for some third party types. The poll is a farce.
September 1, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
The VP pick may have stepped on Obama's acceptance speech. But it also stepped on any GOP response to it. Republicans could have done quite a lot to refute Obama's speech, especially considering how critical it was of McCain. Instead, it goes into the record unrefuted. That is very important down the line.
Once the novelty of Palin wears off, and non-far-right women realize what a nut Palin is, people will see this as the sop to the religious right. She's a better looking Monica Goodling. And Obama will have made the case for seriousness.
September 1, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
An excellent point, and I quote it in full because it bears repeating.
It is good that the media didn't analyze the speech to the bone - it was an outstanding speech seen by 10s of millions who can judge it for themselves. Let the media chase after the new shiny ball for a while, and let the voters' positive opinions of Obama cement unchallenged by the dimwitted media and the Reeps.
September 1, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with Liam. In the CNN poll only 3% of Americans are undecided which over a Labor Day weekend is hard to swallow.
Rasmussen and Gallup have a higher percentage of undecideds.
September 1, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is 3% hard to believe? After all this time, who could NOT have made a decision? The two choices are so stark and obvious. It's not like we have a choice of McCain v George Bush; whatever is important to a person, the contrast between Obama and McCain is there for all to see.
The only remaining questions might be:
Do I vote for the old man with years of experience who wants eternal war, will lower taxes even more for the richest among us, and is stuck in the 60's and whose dementia might get worse, or he could even die?
Or do I go for the intelligent, inspiring, and obviously capable, far-seeing guy whose policies help the middle class and shore up our country's reputation and economic standing in the world -- even though he's black? (because anyone who believes the first part of that sentence and who is on the fence, has to be hung up on Barack's race)
September 1, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember what Frank Rich said on Friday? McCain depends on national polls and the talking heads to sway voters. Obama is laser focused on the ground game. Since Friday he has had more than 20,000 at each venue attending rallies from Ohio, PA and Michigan.
The national polls are a myth.
September 1, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good News!
Gustav has veered to the west of NO - it's going to be spared the worst, they think now.
O thank heavens!
September 1, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good news indeed!
This also reduces the possibility that Senator McCain will make his acceptance speech via sattelite from the storm area. He'll be forced back to St. Paul because there will be less for him to do "managing the US response".
I love the thought of Senator McCain speaking in St. Paul and the attendant comparisons to TV viewership. Balloons descending on half-empty seats, dismal Nielsen ratings, no convention bounce, ....
September 1, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Won't he find some shameless way to crudely exploit this by patching roofs and handing out water bottles when he gravely intones, "My fellow Americans..."
Also, he may not need to read Sarah's name from a card this time!
September 1, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obamas speech was seen by more people than watched the Olympics opening ceremony. It does not matter that the media focused on McCain's vp because most people saw the speech and can make up their own minds what they thought about it. It was probably a good thing that they turned their attention to the VP pick because it prevented them from finding something to criticize in Obama's speech. The media has always found something to criticize Obama about, no matter if they are wrong, which is 90% of the time.
September 1, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please this is silly. Kerry's speech was also watched by a record number. And Palin's own mother says she loves to hear Obama talk, but not sure if she will vote for him.
If you make it about the speech audience, then year, Obama beats American Idol in popularity.
September 1, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the question is whether having the media talk on and on about the speech would have been that beneficial to Obama, even if it was positive. I doubt there are too many people not swayed by the speech, but hearing Gergen call it "a masterpiece" and "a symphony" they would then be swayed. This is even more so for those who didn't see the speech. Sometimes there is too much emphasis on dominating the national newscycles, as if all press is good press.
September 1, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
19 million, 38 million, what's the difference.
September 1, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
In 2004 121 million people voted, including 59 million for kerry. 38 million is a drop in the bucket. The republicans shut down any discussion of the "speech" with their pick. Smart move on their part. If they would have picked mitt the flip or paulenty, there would have been virtually no discussion. No matter what you feel about palin, it was a shrewd and smart pick and once again dominated the corporate run media.
September 1, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
"19 million, 38 million, what's the difference?"
19 million.
September 1, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin's mother in law and you reversed what she said.
She said she was thinking about voting for him - not what you said - you went with half-empty when she said half-full.
September 1, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of all four candidates, she is the only one with any executive experience.
Further her emphasis on the common good is sounder than Obama's emphasis on unity -- and no, they are not the same thing.
The common good requires a search for what will work for people -- calls for unity can arise from a driving desire to be loved and from a desperate need for power.
September 1, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Common Good. YOu want to define that, please?
I do not consider a woman who is anti-everything woman to be interested in the "common good."
That is a huge stinking pile of shit.
September 1, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
If that experience is so meaningful, why isn't she at the TOP of the ticket? Mitt Romney had more executive experience too, in a more populous state even, but he's nowehere to be found.
Obviously, there's more to leadership than simply checking off days on a calendar for how long you held an office.
September 1, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Way to move the goalposts just because you threw "common good" out there and you know it's meaningless.
So now it's back to experience.
That's a great line for the GOP now. Keep using it.
September 1, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
calls for unity can arise from a driving desire to be loved and from a desperate need for power.
What a bunch of hooey.
Let me guess - this pearl of wisdom magically doesn't apply when GWB fashions himself in 2000 as a 'uniter, not a divider'.
September 1, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Executive experience? A city of 8000? SNORT!
If this is true, then the mayor of my city of 15,000 is _much_ more qualified than Sarah Palin. So why pick her? Why not pick the mayor of a city that actually has more people? Or a governor who's actually been in office for more than 18 months, for christ's sake?
Tim Pawlenty, who was _thought_ to be a lightweight, has 6 years as governor and several as majority leader in a state with a population 700 times larger than Wasilla. (And Minnesota is 7.5 x larger than Alaska in population.)
I'd continue in my rage, but I've already violated my rule about feeding trolls.
September 1, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, I think you need to go back and learn a little about what Democrats stand for. Is not universal/affordabe health care, infrastucture repair, strenghtening the military after Iraq, etc. working for the common good?
Historical analysis is dicey, I know, but Kennedy had no "executive" experience, doubtfully Nixon, Johnson,...
Having it doesn't necessarily guarantee good performance either re: Bush.
September 1, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now yous are equivocating over "executive experience", as if only governors can be president? Is this more of the "9-11 changed everything" meme? This sophistry is, as Rachel Maddow says, "post-rational".
She's not running for the Executive position, remember? Rather the "assistant to the Executive". Running a lemonade stand is not the same as running a million dollar a year business (for Repub trolls, that's an analogy, not to be taken literally). But if you want to go on her record as mayor of Wasilla and governor of Alaska, let's see what the non-vetting process didn't reveal.
September 1, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is in Michigan and Wisconisn today.
Biden is in Scranton.
If I were the Obama team I would have Biden and Hillary campaign in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Obama can go to those places as well as every where else.
September 1, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting diary at Kos. She was once a member of the Alaska Independence Party, a secessionist group.
I suspect these revelations of her general nuttiness will accumulate over this week and may start to get MSM coverage middle of next week. (The kid gloves are on for now.)
Sorry in advance if I blew the formatting.
September 1, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the link to the aforementioned Kos diary.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/1/84544/50180/809/581942
September 1, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
She wasn't vetted by the McCain camp. Period. She's about to get a crash course on the national media.
September 1, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
So is McCain. This isn't a Senatorial race, nor is the early stages of a primary race.
September 1, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is that the McCain team made a big investment at the famous Intrade we hear so much about around here. How smart were the Intrade "investors" holding shares of the "smart" picks when McCain announced Palin? The McCain team probably cleaned up.
September 1, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
A presidential election is not a football game, Billy. It's not a matter of gaining inches on the field temporarily.
It's about the end result and right now we are too far from the end for you to make pronouncements about just what this means based on a field gain of an inch or two of publicity.
September 1, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Billy, this is the smartest thing I've seen you write. You nailed it. McCain & his staff bet the farm on Palin on InTrade and cleaned up. A little insider trading, eh?
September 1, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
The poll's revelation about Palin's weak support among female voters confirms the impression I was getting from posts I have been reading throughout the blogosphere. It has been the female posters who have been most critical and who have been asking the toughest questions. Some of this questioning has outraged the male posters who see Mrs Palin through quite different eyes.
September 1, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll say this again - women are not stupid. Women get women and she is not a nice woman.
ANd it's an insult to dangle this woman with no cred, no skills, no experience except popping babies out and leaning all over state employees in the attempt to influence an ongoing legal case and that's not legal.
She's an insult to women - and we get that.
September 1, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
If she is an insult to women, do you have to insult her so viciously or will it not be clear if you don't?
September 1, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right now - yes.
You don't like it? Tough.
I don't like her.
September 1, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can say whatever you like, it's your right. But you tone contradicts and diminishes your point, that's all I'm sayin.
September 1, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lalo - considering that you laughed when I made the point sarcastically that no one really pays any attention to what is said in conversation on a comments board, you can't have it both ways.
EIther it matter or it doesn't - and it doesn't. I can way what I want and I don't care what you think of it - your opinion doesn't mean much, frankly.
September 1, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since when is listing someone's qualifications (or lack thereof) an insult?
September 1, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Men like Rove and McCain picked Sarah Palin, primarily to placate the AmTalibangelicals, mostly men like Dobson, Robertson, etc. Rightwingnut women will just go along for the ride.
Women will be the ones to take her down. McRove clearly had no understanding of how bad it looks to pass over qualified, experienced GOP women, yet again.
September 1, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn straight.
She isn't qualified. She's an insult - she's everything that women have worked to try to get up and away from. Everything.
September 1, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
"AmTalibangenicals?"
You know, that really was not a nice fucking thing to say, was it?! No why don't you go hug some dimwitted Holy Roller today and make up for your intemperate outburst, young lady?!
September 1, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You've got a filthy mouth, Snowmobile Barbie!
Keep up the good work!
September 1, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the Republicans were hoping to get Clinton's female support, they messed up majorly.
This poll says it clearly, women voters do not like Palin.
September 1, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Huffingtonpost is reporting adviser to Hillary Clinton say she will play a much a greater role on Senator Obama's behalf. According, to the article Hillary was angered by the pick of Palin-assuming Palin would take the place of HRC or something to that extent. Nonetheless, this is fabolous news for Obama.
Hillary can go after Palin with Obama-Biden getting their hands dirty. Thank you, Hillary.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/01/clinton-advisers-palin-pi_n_122911.html
September 1, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Huffingtonpost is reporting advisers to Sen.Hillary Clinton are saying, she will play a much a greater role on Senator Obama's behalf. According, to the article Hillary was angered by the pick of Palin-assuming Palin would take the place of HRC or something to that extent. Nonetheless, this is fabolous news for Obama.
Hillary can go after Palin with Obama-Biden getting their hands dirty. Thank you, Hillary.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/01/clinton-advisers-palin-pi_n_122911.html
September 1, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it is and it's good news for me too. I'm so damn mad myself I'm glad as shit to hear that Hillary is. Good - turn her loose on that stupid bint immediately.
September 1, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good news if true. I know a least a couple of women who are iffy about Obama but seriously pissed-off by McCain's choice of Palin. I get the impression they would've gone ahead and voted for Obama in any case, but this puts them squarely into the "let's kick McCain's butt" camp.
September 1, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anectodal as they say, but yeah, interesting.
September 1, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Race is no dead heat.
This is an outlier and even then it still shows Obama ahead. I want more polls from battleground states. VA,MO,CO,OH,MS,SC,NM,NV,MT,AK e.t.c.
I am tired of seeing polls from CA,NY,MA,RI,UT e.t.c. as if they are going to change significantly.
September 1, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, its MSM hype!
September 1, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Huffingtonpost is reporting advisers to Sen.Hillary Clinton are saying, she will play a much a greater role on Senator Obama's behalf. According, to the article Hillary was angered by the pick of Palin-assuming Palin would take the place of HRC or something to that extent. Nonetheless, this is fabolous news for Obama.
Hillary can go after Palin with Obama-Biden getting their hands dirty. Thank you, Hillary.
September 1, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
When was the poll conducted? The weekend when everybody is heading to the shore? By the way, CNN pollster knows their poll doesn't make sense
September 1, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good points about Obama's speech. All the polls said that Americans had a very good impression of it and they will hold in people's minds because the GOP didn't pick it a part over the next few days.
40 million people who mostly have a very good impression of Obama's speech as well as Obama is an EXCELLENT thing. That will last for a long time.
I am glad that Gustav is a cat 2. There is no excuse for McCain to not give his speech from St. Paul. If he doesn't do it there, the Dems should be all over him for exploiting the hurricanes for his own political gain.
September 1, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Michael Scherer at Time brings up the issue of whether he should be speaking from the impacted areas, and says others in the media are asking the same question, although I haven't seen any.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1837807,00.html?cnn=yes
September 1, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't seen anyone question McCain on this either. I wish someone would because I think it's disgusting.
September 1, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly.
Obama goes overseas, and at a rally in Berlin, Candy Crowley asserts he's acting presumptuous.
McSame says he'll give his acceptance speech from NOLA in the middle of the disaster, and it raises no questions?
What the fuck?
September 1, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't waste a lot of energy discussing Palin's lack of fitness for the Veep slot, or McCain's judgment for naming her. The important thing to notice is that this outrageous choice and its announcement stepped on Obama's post convention bump. Where did it go, and how can we reciprocate with McCain, now?
September 1, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
As someone else noted (apologies to whomever it was ), it was a short-term gain, but a long-term hangover for McCain. In addition, Nate Silver over at 538, that the convention bounce eventually dissipates on it's own anyway.
September 1, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Give the Republicans a week to get over their ecstasy over not getting saddled with Mitt Romney or Joe Lieberman. Let this sink in a little. Let the press have their way with Governor Palin. Then watch McCain slide in the polls. McCain blew it. He's going to spend the rest of the campaign explaining his reckless choice.
September 1, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not convinced that Palin was anything more than a spectacular stunt designed to suck the air out of any post convention coverage of Obama. I would be less than stunned if she went away and a more mainstream Veep didn't appear.
September 1, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because the VP choice is (rightly or wrongly) deemed the most important decision a presidential candidate makes, if she is so bad she needs to be replaced, McCain can kiss the white house goodbye, no matter who he has a VP to replace her. Meets her once, does a poor job of vetting (goggled her once?).
September 1, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right - that's all it was - a stunt.
September 1, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm thinking that she leaves in a week, and then McLame is free to pick Lieberman since he won't have to worry about the convention blowing up in his face.
September 1, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this is his plan, then he is more of an idiot than George Bush. He is now on the Reformer Crusade '08, taking on the old boys network and cleaning up Washington with the true outsider Sarah Barracuda Palin. He would have to take a different message and explain over and over and over why he chose her based on one meeting. He would be toast (if he isn't already).
September 1, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me too.
I wish I could remember who it was the other night who said: '
Pal-IN; Pal-OUT.
She's not going to make it onto the ballot - that's my prediction.
September 1, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
McStunt is saddled with her. Picking ANOTHER veep is even more suicidal at this point...
September 1, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Morning all! Lots of interesting and really funny and stupid stuff about her over at Dailykos. One that stands out is that she filled out a questionarie when she was running for governor. One of the questions asked about how she felt about the phrase "Under God" in the Pledge of Alligence. She answered that if it was good enough for the Founding Fathers, it was good enough for her!! Duh!! The Pledge was introduced in 1892. Does this woman know anything?? They also have some great pictures of her from her Wasilla days.
September 1, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Under God" wasn't even in the original pledge, was added in the 1950s during the height of the RedScare.
September 1, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah cause the guy who wrote the pledge was a Socialist. It was supposed to be about the constitution.
The religious right got ahold of it.
September 1, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Folks the whole thing is a joke, an insult, Americans should be disgusted. Nobody out side of Alaska shouls have any opinion of this woman because NOBODY KNOWS HER, not even the guy who picked her to be his VP. This is electorate manipulation way off the charts and the American electorate are idiotic if they don't see it.
But they haven't. Conservatives lapped it up. We are arguing over her. The talking heads who steer the discussion like it or not, have already adopted the narrative and phrasing of "executive experience". This should be panned from the rooftops by the media and anyone with a hint of seriousness. But it is 50/50.
September 1, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
CNN and FOX are two pees in a pod. Anything from CNN is irrelevant.
September 1, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
They were the most watched network for the Democratic Convention. They have a large role in creating and maintaining the narratives of the campaign in the heads of the undecideds.
September 1, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sadly, that's the truth.
September 1, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, and cnn is getting worse than fox entertainment. Totally pathetic. They do virtually no reporting. They only regurgitate the right-wing talking points as fact. Disgusting.
September 1, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad the national tracking poll is neck-and-neck. Good.
Run scared, run hard, don't let up, don't take anything for granted. Shhh, don't tell about the EVs and the state polls. This is a dead heat.
Be afraid, be very afraid, and work your butts off.
September 1, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
You don't have to run scared to work hard, dammit.
I'm sick of the Democrats running scared all the time. Scared of what the Religious Right will say; scared of what the GOP will say; scared of what the MSM will say...
Enough.
There's not one thing to be afraid of.
September 1, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
The minute we start to think we can't lose, Tena, darlin, that's the minute we start losing.
September 1, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
As far as I can tell, she knows how to run everyone else's business but her own.
September 1, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin shouldn't be compared to all women politicians, just to Republican women politicians.
Remember: A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse, but not a remarkable mathematician.
September 1, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I liked Kerry's characterization of Palin - "she's a member of the flat-earth caucus".
Hmmm - no wonder the Ron Paul people are so excited.
September 1, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
lol...i almost fell out of my chair when Kerry made that comment.
September 1, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Someone needs to start a "Flat Earth Catalogue" full of t-shirts and bumper-stickers with Palin's name and face plastered upon them..
She and Glenn Beck make quite a pair...
September 1, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know who really has a right to be excited right now? Barr.
McLame very probably made Barr viable to a lot of otherwise Repug voters.
September 1, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kerry ends with: "What John McCain has proven with this choice is that John McCain is the prisoner of the right wing, not a maverick." Nice.
September 1, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Local news had video of Sarah getting off the plane with Cindy last night. He's treating her like a wife.
September 1, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
John Kerry has just been magnificent.
He broke my heart the other night - he was damn near Lincolnesque in his speech - it was a travesty that that election got stolen.
Dammit.
September 1, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
If so little is known to the general public about Palin, just what are those being polled basing her "favorability" on?? It's nuts and not to be trusted.
The Repbulicans are thanking Gustav. Not only is the rejiggering of the Repbublican National Convention a shameless and crass "concern" ploy but, more importantly, it's a convenient way to avoid having to call the "defendant" McCain (and his partners in crime) to the stand. No Bush, no Cheney, no McCain. I think some on the inside must feel that there's no need to take chances with further potential embarrassments, like the Palin pick. As long as they maintain their campaign of lies, distortions and disinformation (i.e. Palin more experienced that Obama) that should be enough.
September 1, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
The bogus executive experience claim is easily dispensed with. George W Bush was governor of larger and more important state for a longer period of time than Palin before becoming president and he's been a disaster. The Obama campaign should start circulating slogans such as "Palin: Almost as qualified as Bush.", "If you liked having George Bush as your president, you're going to love having Sarah Palin as your Vice-President."
September 1, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been saying the same thing for 2 days now - how in the world does the GOP think it is going to pull the same damn hat trick again?
People are so fucking fed up - if they elect another George W Bush, but with a vagina, I give up - 90% of us poll against Bush. And all she is is George Bush - with less experience.
September 1, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brownback will be nominating Palin at the convention.
THIS IS NOT SNARK!
As for electrifying the evangelicals?
Deaf sheep (evangelical preachers and their prejudiced church choir), led by blind goats(televangelists and wingnut radioheads), owned by hungry wolves (neocon billionaires).
Doesn't EVERYONE here agree the moderate independent vote is crucial in this election?
Is Palin in any way attractive or even acceptable to moderate independents?
Again, I think logic dictates, the McCain camp is reaching for the wingnuts, and abandoning all hope of keeping or gaining independents, by choosing Sarah (get your gun out) Palin.
Bush barely "won" with independents AND fundies.
McCain can't even keep his wingnut base aboard without an extreme VP, so what does that suggest for this election cycle?
September 1, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're very right, but there are pockets of voters where she'll do well (I named seven the other day). E.g.; mostly-Catholic-anti-abortion one issue zealots, Alex39's "Legally Blond" suburban women ("I kind of like her!"), a few man-haters and women-booster types who may lie before pulling the voting booth lever for her, a few Talibangelicals who might have otherwise stayed home.
I think over time (not quite yet) people need to get organized and energized to bring this cynical, would-be-manipulative charade down.
September 1, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you value judgment over experience Palin is qualified in McCain's view: they share the same policy preferences.
This shows that McCain was willing to pick a woman he viewed as qualified while Obama was not willing to pick one.
September 1, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
"they share the same policy preferences."
Where'd you get that? She is from the Talibangenical Bush base, he isn't. He is fascinated by foreign policy that he obviously doesn't understand, and it means nothing to her. She is an enemy of the environment and he isn't.
September 1, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
In Today's Gallup, Obama is still up 49-43. So much for the Palin effect.
September 1, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink