Quick! To the Panic Room!!

There's the Democracy Corp poll which shows Obama up, taken 9/1 - 9/3.

So maybe the story should be "conflicting polls", rather than a lead disappearing?

McCain gained slightly, but Obama lost everyone he had gained?

No, it just looks like its the 1 in 20 effect.

at least he raised $8 Million since yesterday thanks to Palin!!!

"according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week"

So the effect of her Buchanan-lite speech, Rudi's hissing Voldemort diatribe and Obama's abortion ad don't factor in?

I'll wait till Sept 15 to be really concerned or thrilled by any polls.

Eric,

I'm sorry to ask you but do you have any credentials or background to report or interpret the polls. Honestly? You're know different in your poll reports than junk on TV.

Do you see any correlated tabs that connect Obama numbers to Palin? Please...know your limitations.

I said the same thing when an Obama leading poll was published, they don't mean much.

That's a darned big swing to be legit, Eric. Unless it's confirmed by other polls, I'd be inclined to say it's an outlier.

As for the Palin announcement being bad for Obama: well, every other poll had Obama's lead widening just after the announcement. The CBS poll was taken from Monday to Wednesday. So this would be well post-announcement, and would reflect (if anything) negative backlash over Palin coverage and/or the Republican convention.

That is, again, assuming it's legit. That remains to be seen, and we have reason to doubt it at this point.

I think it's an outlier but there are a lot of f@*king idiots out there.

Seems like an outlier....way to many undecideds. CBS for some reason always has a lot of undecided voters. Even back in 2000 on election eve they had Gore ahead 44% to 43% over Bush....the only poll to actually have Gore ahead.

Obama leads 50%-45% in Rasmussen, 49%-42% in Gallup and 49%-44% in the new Democracy Corp poll. All were taken in the same time frame. So it is not time to panic. Maybe Eric should put up a combined entry that has all the new poll data.

They changed their likely voter model. That has to be it.

That doesn't make any sense considering all the other polls say he has a five point lead and there has been little to no movement in the tracking polls in 2 or 3 days.

Since I always apply the Bradley Effect to Barack Obama, he's never been in the lead in my books. The real results will show Nov. 4

If folks stopped replying to these poll threads then the message might be sent.

There are polls, and then there are polls. Want to understand the difference?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

The CBS/NYT polling organization is statistically shyte.

734 registered voters does not a legitimate national sample size make. I'm sure this poll will get a lot of airtime, but it is worthless.

Retarded fucking headline. Seriously, guys, you can do better.

How about this "CBS Poll Shows Palin Bounce".

Maybe Eric should put up a combined entry that has all the new poll data

.

No shit.

The arrows didn't transfer - I was afraid of that.

you know - regular HTML left arrow at start of code, right at end -

She has sucked all the air out of the room since McNuts announced her last week and as many viewers saw her speech last night as saw Obama's, plus nothing got in the way of all Palin all the time today, unlike last week the day after after Obama's speech when McNuts introed her and took all the talkers away. So it's no surprise the polls have changed. The soap opera has kept her in the news up to the pitbull speech last night and beyond.
Once again it's the Turdblossom phenomenon- A flower growing out of crap, something the GOP has been good at.
Obama's got to get an 8+ pt lead to counteract the GOP shenanigans, which will be out in force.

and Obama is up by 3% in ND...So where is the headline?

Are you planning to have one Headline for each poll?

I am just adding $100 for Senator Obama, just right now...

A little math on the CBS weighting:

CBS Party ID:
31.1% R
34.8% D
+3.7%

Rasmussen Party ID (9/2/08)
33.2% R
38.9% D
+5.7%

Gallup Party ID (July 2008, last I could find)
27% R
36% D
+9%

(Ras Party ID for July: +9.5%)

Republicans may have substantially closed a party ID gap in the last two months; Rasmussen has been pretty good in 2004 and 2006. (Though that seems to go against all of the voter registration stories.) If you weight CBS more like Rasmussen (instead of like 2004 :P) you wind up with roughly Obama +4. That's more in line with other polls for 9/1-9/3.

This gives us a good baseline for assessing reaction to the Palin and McCain speeches.

Is there any better methodology for identifying party ID out there?

Obama Ahead in Most Polls -- That's the headline I would have written. For some reason, TPM likes to dwell on the negative. Although, I think their coverage in general has gotten a lot better lately.

Obama has not trailed or tied McCain in the poll of polls since May 1st.

So, while folks freak out and the media work up a storm, keep that fact in mind. You are supporting a candidate that has been in the lead every day for over 4 months. And people wonder why Obama doesn't freak out every time a Republican says "boo"

Whoops, double post! The second post doesn't mention that I lifted this from FiveThirtyEight. I'm not this smart!

This CBS poll is another example of a concerted effort by the MSM to deceive the voters into believing the election is close---when it really is not.

Since 3 out of the 4 polls taken the same time Sept 1-3 show Obama ahead (Rasmussen, Gallup, Dem Corps), why is TPM focusing on the one poll where it shows that is tied?

That doesn't make any sense at all.

CBS poll turns out to have been weighted much more towards Republicans than their last poll. and the numbers went up by as much as the R's were over-weighted. not really anything to worry about, other than the sheer fact that so many traditional media sources are willing to throw these bones to the republicans...for whatever reason.

people, let's not forget that secretly some dem's want obama to fall flat on his face (some unknown clinton supporters who never really got the "country first" memo).....

phew....with that said, i am tired of polls...i dont get my bloomers in a bunch even when he is ahead...i am going to wait until november to see if we put our votes where our mouths are!!! everyone cheerleading in public is not necessarily a believer...like wise, some of the most vile opponents to an obama presidency just might wake up and find themselves on the right side of the issue come november....

the vote that matters to me is the one they tally up in november...the one that announces obama/biden, the american people and the world, winners!!!

The problem with Major network polls is with the question ask they can make a poll say what they want to. Some times they don't sample the same amount of people.

thing is with these so called polls and why I am not worried at all on this election is the young gen that voted for Obama in the primaries most will not be registered as they have not got involved in politics before Obama and I don't think any poll has took them in to account

And they will make this in my eyes a massive Obama win

plus all the polls come up with different numbers if they were a real sample they would all be the same plus how do you get a poll that you say shows the way the country is going when you only ask 2000 people

thing is with these so called polls and why I am not worried at all on this election is the young gen that voted for Obama in the primaries most will not be registered as they have not got involved in politics before Obama and I don't think any poll has took them in to account

And they will make this in my eyes a massive Obama win

plus all the polls come up with different numbers if they were a real sample they would all be the same plus how do you get a poll that you say shows the way the country is going when you only ask 2000 people