Actually, that 52-43 number was pretty much in line with the R2K poll of today of 51-41 and yesterday's Gallup poll of 50-42. The consensus seems to be solidifying around a national lead of anywhere from 5-7 points.

How about the InsiderAdvantage numbers from VA and OH?

Well, a little bit of good Karma, perhaps.

Senator Obama's beloved White Sox just beat The Twins, in a one game playoff, and are now in the American league playoffs.

In fact, both Chicago Baseball teams are in the playoffs.

Could this be a banner year for The Land Of Lincoln!

The Red Sox won in 2004, didn't work out so well for Kerry.

Just five points?!?!

Is it just me, or does it seem like nothing McCain/Palin say or do will erase the fact that Obama is black from the minds of a great many of our fellow Americans? Seems like it's the Bush dead-enders plus 10% or so. They just won't budge no matter how absurd and pethetic the GOP clown show.

Hey! Nate Silver is on Olbermann.

The magic number is 50%.

Just five points?!?!

Is it just me, or does it seem like nothing McCain/Palin say or do will erase the fact that Obama is black from the minds of a great many of our fellow Americans? Seems like it's the Bush dead-enders plus 10% or so. They just won't budge no matter how absurd and pethetic the GOP clown show.

I believe so. I live in California and this past weekend we were calling the battleground state of NC and some of the people that were called said they would not vote for a black man!!! There were others that said they were leaning towards voting for Barack but weren't sure if he were Christian enough!!! So yes, there are some that will vote race and not care about the direction this country is going.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!

There is no such thing as a popular vote magic number. Bush/Gore should have taught every one that lesson. It matters not if you pile up huge margins in California, New York, and Illinois, if you do not MOP up. MOP(Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania.)

When it is all said and done, those three states will decide who will be the next president.

While I agree that Obama should be up 20 points, the reality is that 42% of the population identify as Republican and 46% calls themselves Democrats and these folks will vote down party lines in very high percentages.

The key is to rally your base while appealing to the "independents". Folks who haven't made up their minds yet are low information voters who will probably break towards McCain based on his reputation which is why it's so important that Obama is at or near 50% in these polls as election day approaches. Then it will all come down to getting out the vote.

Well I don't know about Ohio but things look good in PA.

Listen to the guy laughing in the back saying "split?"

The Democrats are sitting in the best position they've been in since 1992 and it's better because right now the opposition party is in full meltdown. No one is in charge of the Repug party which is very fractured.

The polls are awesome - so if you like the polls, they're all the same: Obama wins.

And some of y'all are whining. Please stop it. I mean to tell you - we're in a very wonderful place - Embrace the fuck out of it and believe - quit trying to bring us down all the time.

Swing state polls are the only polls that matter from today till Nov. 4.

So... How many polls is that now putting Obama at or above 50%? Hmm... And.. has McCain EVER broken 50%? Seriously, now.

How come democrats are taking polls at face value. The Bradley effect is an extremely well documented thing. We ought to be very afraid of a poll that says that Obama is 4-5 points ahead. That probably means that he probably a little bit behind.

Do we have our heads in the sand? Do we hope that believing or hoping that the Bradley effect will go away will, in fact, make it go away?

Either ABC/WaPo are seriously incapable of selecting a nationally representative sample or this country is producing dumbfucks in alarming proportions. Take your pick.

Seriously.

McCain campaign has been a national joke- suspension, Palin terror, failed bailout bill, and an average debate performance.

Obama from all other indicators seems to be in a better position to win easily. Just look at the events in the past two weeks.

LOL!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo

I'm laughing so hard I'm in tears, heee.

O Dave! He just said that the stock market dropped 777 points - he's so glad McCain blew him off to save the economy.

Zing!

Obama's been cracking 50% in national and battleground state polls for at least a week now. It's starting to harden and we're not that far from the finish line. McCain's big game-changers haven't changed the game. Everything he does at this point is a desperation move.

I'm not being cocky. I just know what it looks like from McCain's side of this thing and people inside his campaign have got to be thinking they're just about out of chances to turn it around.

the thread focuses on polling numbers, but paying attention to polling content is important, too. mccain still has beyond MOE lead in stuff like "protecting the country," "combating terrorism," even still somehow leads in "foreign policy."

can you say, "October surprise?"

I'm not sure what to think about this poll. It's good news for Obama that he's still ahead, but some of the internals are strange. First, the swing of independents from O +14 to O -3 is quite dramatic. That's an incredible shift in a week. The DOW drop may have precipitated a shift to McCain, since he's perceived in their poll to be better at handling a crisis. But, in the same poll, voters say Obama's better equipped (O +10) to handle the economy. So, I don't see independents rushing to McCain so swiftly; a 17 point change in a week seems unlikely.

Also, I know that winning a debate doesn't automatically impact topline numbers, but RVs think that Obama did better in the debate (O +14). Those RVs also came away with a better impression of Obama (O +12 vs. M +3). Those same RVs also think that McCain is a riskier choice for President; they now think Obama is the safer choice. They also think that Obama is the stronger leader. They think that McCain doesn't have the temperament to be President.. And for all the CIC talk; those numbers haven't changed since their last poll. Yet, McCain gained in the poll? McCain's small gains in the internals were on foreign policy/international issues and on the economy. But, how does one gain ground when other key leadership aspects of the poll show you losing ground? I know that there's not a causal link between the two, but I would assume that there is a correlation, and I'm guessing that it's not a weak one.

Anyway, after all that, ABC News is reporting this poll this way: "Preference among likely voters overall is 50-46 percent, Obama-McCain, a bit closer (albeit within sampling error) than the 52-43 percent last week." The "albeit within sampling error" is key. I'm wondering, too, how they can put a poll from the 27-29th out on the afternoon/evening of the 29th. I can't recall seeing something like that this year. It brings up the question of who they were polling during the day of the 29th. It seems like they would've missed anyone at work, and would've likely picked up more older voters, who favor McCain.

Basically, I think the "McCain gains" may actually be sampling error. But, we'll have to see what the polls say tomorrow to know if there is legitimate movement towards McCain. The results were mixed today, but most showed Obama slightly widening his lead.

All this stuff about Palin being a train wreck is good for Yuks, but who is going to be laughing on November 5? Memories are very very short. One reasonable performance will erase nearly all that has come before. On Friday we'll see polls saying that Sarah Palin stood up in front of a national audience and showed that she could be president. Even if she just repeats talking points. Its not just that the bar has been lowered, is that the bar is pretty low to begin with.
Read the most recent Couric interview with Palin and McCain. Yes, its like when my Dad made me come down to the drug store with him so I could explain to the store owner how sorry I was I had tried to steal a pack of football cards. But it works. They come across as completely reasonable, even though held to any reasonable standard they are perpetrating a farce. I'll wait until November 5 to laugh.
I predict that at the debate she will come across as very reasonable, moderate and crisp. She'll deny radical beliefs, exclaim the greatness of John McCain, and attack Obama along well established lines. I have a lot of faith that Biden will do very well too. But the story is going to be that she held her own. Ultimately, the only solace we can take in this is that she has absorbed so much time and energy of the McCain campaign up to this point AND that the VP will ultimately have very little impact on the race.

Good night little concern trolls and determinedly miserable liberals everywhere. Y'all will find something to bitch about the night Obama wins.

Swear to god.

Who will provide McCain with an October surprise? Bin Laden -- that's who. It may not be much -- probably just a new web video rather than an actual attack, but it may be enough. Remember how he gave Bush a last minute assist in 2004 with a web video?

Bin Laden wants continued Republican rule. It's a classic strategy of guerilla campaigns and covert operations. Pick off your opponents best minds -- prop up their weakest leaders, or else the leaders whose policies would be most destructive to your opponent. Bin Laden knows that for him to embrace Obama is potentially the kiss of death to the American public, so that is probably what he will do.

This dkos diary does a swell job of laying out the changes in the ABC/WaPo poll's internals from last time to this one:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/1/5176/24902/961/616352

I figure that Obama 375 McCain 163 is the limit as to how high Obama can go and how low McCain can go in the electoral college. This is giving McCain only the red, red states.

At this rate Obama might get close!!