One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.

In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.

They also used 700+ interviews versus the 671 and under they used in previous surveys.

This poll doesn't mean any more than other polls suggesting the McCain lead, but I can think of a few cynical trolls not appearing on this blog to take pleasure in their dumbfuck satire.

hyperRevue--you beat me to it. I guess McCain could not cling to his lead.

Campaign for Change in Alexandria, VA had a huge turnout of volunteers Saturday morning for canvassing. I talked to 5 undecided voters who I know are going to get out and vote for Obama on Nov. 4. A lot of undecideds just need to talk to a normal person who is supporting Obama and they're going to fall our way. This poll is great encouragement for those working to turn VA blue!

Keep Working Hard in VA!

The internals actually look reasonable - no wacky skew for any demo/region/etc. The D/R/I split is 35/33/23 - in the last polls it was 36/35/20. The male-female ration is 50-50...in the last poll it was 48-52. So this includes more men. Promising but could be an outlier. Not that the race isn't close in VA - it is. But Obama hitting 50 and being outside of the MoE is very impressive. Rasmussen from VA is coming out later today. I'll bet that one shows a 4-5 pt McCain lead - this guess is based on absolutely nothing other than the fact that we can't possible have two pieces of good news coming out of a key swing state in the same day.

http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm
You can see that an increasing number of projection sites have McCain leading int he electoral college. last week there were 3, now 13. The one thing I am not sure of is how many of these sites actually move states base don an average of polls or base don one poll, the latest, which seems kind of ridiculous.

And McCain is spent... He's already played the wild card, got the bonus bounce out of that, but not yet the downside to the wild card.

Does he have anything left in that tank?

I imagine the Republicans to be a dead rotting carcass and you roll them over and there is a horrendous stink with all sorts of bugs and crap you can't even imagine. Sounds kind of like the issues Obama will have to deal with on January 21st.

Does he have anything left in that tank?

It's Obama who needs to go for the kill. And he's off to a good start this week.

What it does do is add another piece of evidence that will tamp down all those voices saying Obama is sinking like Kerry did.

...the electoral map is quickly narrowing to a traditional grouping of swing states

A couple hours later...

In a sign that maybe the electoral map isn't contracting that much...

Eric,

You may not want to make sweeping predictions based on a few snap shot pills. This is just ridiculous. You sound as if the movement is polls in the eternal reality of this election. It's a poll. Instead, please provide more internals from these polls and we'll make our own interpretation.

From:

Head of State

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/proposed-commercial-mac-vs-pc.html

Sunday, September 14, 2008

A Proposed Commercial: Mac vs. PC

(White background. Childlike piano music plays)

(A picture of Barack Obama appears against the background)

VO: (Similar to voice of "Mac" character): Barack Obama is like a Mac.

(A picture of John McCain appears against the background)

VO: (Similar to voice of "PC" character): John McCain is like a PC.

(Picture of a bank against the background)

VO: McCain likes the old economics, corporate welfare, and tax breaks for the wealthy of George W. Bush.

(Quick cuts: Picture of Countrywide Branch, Picture of Bear Stearns, Picture of IndyMac, Picture of Lehman Brothers against background)

(Picture of Obama)

VO: Obama doesn't like old systems that crash.

(Picture of a mother, father, son and daughter against the background)

VO: Obama thinks that when it comes to health care, every American should have the access and support they need.

(Picture of family fades to blank background)

VO: McCain is against these health benefits for children, families and the elderly. He believes that when it comes to access and support for health, it's an "ownership society"--you're on your own.

(Picture of a woman standing against background)

VO: For women, McCain talks a good game, but he is against a woman's right to choose, would repeal Roe v. Wade, and even voted against equal pay for women.

(Picture expands to show many women standing behind her)

VO: Barack Obama believes that every woman should be paid the same for the same work as every man, and that every woman has the right to make her own choices.

(Picture of George W. Bush)

VO: Barack Obama has called for an end to the distortions, mismanagement, and failed policies of the Bush Administration that have left so many families in distress.

(Famed picture of McCain hugging George W. Bush)

VO: McCain has agreed with George W. Bush 90% of the time.

(Picture of McCain)

VO: John McCain. Do you really want to spend another four years with the same old system?

(Music outro. Fade.)

Cite:

Head of State

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/proposed-commercial-mac-vs-pc.html

Two questions for any experts or Virginians who might have any insight:

1. Will Mark Warner and the gubernatorial campaign have nay impact on turnout for Dems and/or Repubs?

2. What kind of impact might a motivated African American vote have on this race?

kash, Eric is a clown with no competence. He is simply not capable of analyzing a poll.

Knock it off. This is one of the best sites on the internet, and Eric and others do a great job, and don't deserve that crap.

Either way, good news. Obama needs to win this week and this poll gives some needed optimism. VA would be huge, I don't think it will happen. But it would be massive.

New Obama Rumor: http://tinyurl.com/6jb7l6

Quote: ""If there is any truth behind the news that Obama negotiated with the Iraqi's in July to delay troop withdrawals he'll have American blood on his hands and can kiss much of his support in Virginia, which is home to a lot of military families.""

Actually my answer =) If there is any truth or evidence about what you say then I believe McShame wants to end the war in Iraq. Common', what you say is stupid !

Thank you for putting this headline back up on the front page. I know "balance" has its good and bad points, but balanced poll reporting would actually be an improvement around here since TPM usually under-reports the good poll numbers for Barack.