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Poll: Obama Takes Lead In Virginia
In a sign that John McCain's political gambit over the last couple days may be hurting him in key states, a new poll finds him falling behind Barack Obama in the crucial swing state of Virginia.
The new numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±4% margin of error. The poll was conducted entirely on Thursday, in the middle of McCain's fake suspension of his campaign and the possibility of him skipping the first debate. In a poll taken on Sunday, McCain had a 50%-48% lead.
The internals show that 52% of Virginia voters consider the economy to be the most important issue of the election -- and the state's electorate as a whole views Obama as better on the economy by a 50%-44% margin.
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Gallup tracker:
O 48
M 45
September 26, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nightmare scenario is that McCain somehow cleans Obama's clock tonight. If we avoid that, I think in the word's of our infamous President, we can begin "measuring the drapes."
September 26, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sweet news from VA....keep on rising Obaba stright into tonight's debate and lower the boom on McShame's soory ass!
September 26, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something funky is going on with McCain's left eye.
I am no conspiracy theorist, but that eye of his has had a weird light to it in pics for a while.
This morning, it popped my head: I had read a story about this same thing on The Today Show's site a few weeks ago:
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/26437081/?GT=43001
A baby pic with a shadow over her pupil alerted another mom on their 'mommy site' to alert the baby's mother and it ended up being cancer.
Do we all need to watch that Palin interview again...or can we be sufficiently scared to death of her proximity to the White House?
September 26, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is getting very interesting - MSNBC just put up a pic of JM and Cindy getting on the plane to Oxford ( I presume) - check out the whole left side of his face. WTF? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
September 26, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
The left side of his face was where the most serious melanoma was. They removed the melanoma and, my understanding is, quite a few of the lymph nodes on that side. That's why you very rarely see that side of his face photographed....they always set it up so that his right side is facing the camera.
Someone yesterday mentioned the problem with his eye is due to nerve damage....and that it's intermittent. I'm not sure if that's true and, if so, whether that's due to the surgery or from his Vietnam experience.
September 26, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to be too hung up on appearances but in that picture McCain is just a couple wrinkles away for being a stand in for Prune Face.
http://www.johncaglionejr.com/press_71990.html
September 26, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, I really wouldn't be too worried about McCain having retinoblastoma - he's about seven decades too old to be be at risk for that particular kind of cancer.
It's possible there is some other cancer that might cause an odd reflection from his left eye, but I'd be more inclined to bet on something like a contact lens or a cataract, or even some sort of medicated ointment.
However, I do agree that something looks "off" around his left eye. Could very well be from damage to his nerves, muscles, or lymphatic system from his prior treatments. He had surgery and radiation; sometimes it takes years, or even decades, for late effects to show up.
On the other hand, the large doses of steroids used in many chemotherapy regimes can induce steroid psychosis, hmmmm. That could explain a lot. (Yes, I'm kidding. I think.)
September 26, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the type of thing that will prompt another "Hail Mary" from the McCain campaign. It's far from the only report/trend going against McCain this morning. And he'll have a large national audience tonight.
McCain can't afford a respectful debate.
September 26, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know if there are so-termed voter fraud mechanisms in place in Virginia? That is, should we reasonably subtract 2% points to allow for some disenfranchisement on election day?
September 26, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, you should. Here in SE Virginia, there is no paper trail for voting. We've got machines only that don't spit out any paper whatsoever to prove your vote.
September 26, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are also questionable things about college students from out of state registering in Virginia; apparently the president of Virginia Tech was telling students they'd lose benefits if they did so. Don't have the link, but it was on the AP this morning.
September 26, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm skeptically optimistic.
I'm sure the debate will be fine for us, tonight. How the pundit class covers the debate may matter more. I remember debate after debate in the primary season supposedly going to HRC.
Then again, I think HRC is an incredible debater. McCain? This may be very interesting.
FYI, my girlfriend is holding an "All Red" VP debate party Why all red? It's going to be a BLOODBATH!
September 26, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm wondering if this market meltdown and Capitol Hill freakout is especially bad for McCain in Virginia. Closer to the problem, the more folks probably hear about it.
Pufferfish
September 26, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great news from VA. Not good ones from MT.
September 26, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having been canvassing in VA every weekend, the VA news is the best news since the invention of sliced bread, which McCain can account to.
September 26, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go Mike!
September 26, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Mike. And congrats!
September 26, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mike, from my office here in Arlington (Courthouse) I've been watching Obama supporters out canvassing constantly for the past month. I have never seen any McCain canvassers.
Today on my way to lunch I stopped to thank them for all their hard work.
These are kids, yet they're probably going to be the reason Obama wins here. In my opinion, their tireless work may end up saving this nation. I would like to personally thank you too for being part of this!
September 26, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Our groups have been targeting the Lee district (Alexandria) on the other side of 495. Last weekend, the volunteer lines stretched down the street. I'd say we had close to 200 at our office for the 10am shift to canvass. Other offices I spoke to mentioned numbers of 100+ also. It's pretty amazing and inspiring to see all these people. Young, old, black, white, woman, man. It's awesome.
When Obama said in his acceptance speech, something out there was stirring, he wasn't exaggerating.
September 26, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
NOVA's gonna bring it home for Obama.
Come Nov 5th when it's all said and done; pick your bar and the drinks are on me all night!
You guys fucking rock.
September 26, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
i canvassed vienna, virginia last saturday, am showing up tomorrow to do it again, and will do so every weekend until nov. 4. there were TONS of people in the organizer's backyard last saturday to go out and bang on doors, and i expect even more tomorrow and every weekend after that.
my wife said last night that her contribution to the campaign is watching our son while i'm out banging on doors. :)
we'll definitely bring home NOVA (decidedly blue), but it's never blue enough, especially in a tight state.
September 26, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the question- what's the next development McCain invents once the economy panic subsides a little?
My guess- da da da DA DA DA! Culture wars! Hannity's infanticide malarky hasn't made it to McCain's lips yet, but I suspect that or some other similar distraction
September 26, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
when sarah palin steps down
September 26, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
It does sound serious, though, with Hannity that worked up. I guess it could be so bad that the candidates would need to consider suspending their campaigns...
September 26, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the truly uncommitted voters were taking the debates seriously. McCain's attempt to duck out of what they viewed as their best chance to get to know about the candidates is a big deal for them. From their perspective, he's essentially saying that he doesn't want their vote, or at least that he doesn't want to earn it. Unless Obama sounds like Palin in the debate, they will be inclined to trust the guy who is there willingly.
September 26, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Insightful, yes.
September 26, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also showed Repub support for McCain going from 90% to 86%. I would assume, if it is a reflection of actual movement, that the moderate Republicans are bailing on him. McCain is becoming more and more a prisoner of the far right wing of his party.
September 26, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me tell you, living in Virginia, the state looks real good for Obama. I mean, I live in Va Beach, a city that went overwhelmingly for George Allen despite his Macaca moment - and all you see here is Obama yard signs and bumper stickers. If Obama can be competitive in this of all cities(I live a stones throw away from that shitheel Pat Robertson) its going to be a motherfucking wrap.
September 26, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Waves to a fellow Virginia Beach-ian.
I live here too and there are a bunch of McCain signs in my neighborhood. I see more Obama bumper stickers though.
One house had a McCain/Palin sign up for a few weeks and recently took it down. I don't know why but I'm taking it as a good sign.
September 26, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey neighbor! lol Yeah, I see them taking down their McCain/Palin sign as a good sign.
September 26, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
A stone's throw? Well damn, how about I gather up a shitload of stones and a 12 pack and we have a debate party at your house tonight? :)
September 26, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sir, you had me at "12 pack"...lol
September 26, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I keep telling folks that if the Commonwealth elected a black man governor 20 years ago, when the demos were less favorable than they are now, then they can do it again. And I know y'all are working it out. My Mom keeps voter registration forms in her purse. My fellow Marylanders trek to NoVa regularly. I am cautiously optimistic, but I know folks are working hard!
I'm a Virginia native (not in NoVa or Tidewater), but since my parents still live there, I told them to expect to see a lot of us on the weekends. :)
September 26, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome! Obama knocked the Great Christmas Tree down leftward!
September 26, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain will be desperate tonight - Obama needs to stay calm and on his toes. Given the set-up and the ability for candidates to ask each other questions, McCain will be out for gotcha questions.
I wouldn't be surprised if he asks a Rev. Wright question to try and catch Obama not ready.
"Sen. Obama, you sat in a pew for 20 years, was married by a man and had both daughters christened by a man who has been seen shouting "God Damn America" - Do you secretly hope to bring down America as President?"
Also Obama better have a parry ready for the "Say the Surge worked dammit" push.
Obama needs to play this debate straight, don't try to poke at McCain to get him riled up. This is McCain's "strength" so Obama just needs to hold his own and could settle for a tie. Obama could effectively win the nomination tonight if he wins the debate, because this is the only strength McCain has over him, and if McCain performs poorly, there will be nothing he can do.
September 26, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
As someone said above, Obama needs to stress over and over that he wanted to debate and Grampy didn't. I hope he says that 20 times.
I also hope he remains calm and throws a line in about how presidents need to keep cool, calm and do more than one thing at once.
And as you said, turn the whole surge thing on its head and point out how how we're no closer to victory and how we need to focus on brining our troops home, and stop focusing on how McCain was "right" about the surge.
September 26, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, Obama is so cool that I now see articles in rightwing publications and online blaming him for being too calm.
September 26, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Rev. Wright question is actually pretty easy. Put Wright's comments back into the context the attack ads stripped out and they become a strong, populist point: Wright was saying that the so-called "leaders" of this country who say "God bless America" but take away jobs, take away benefits, take away the social safety net are really saying "God damn America". A question about Wright would give Obama an opportunity to make points with everyone who has ever been screwed by the powerful -- like McCain's cronies -- and an opportunity to show the sleazy McCain tricks in stripping out the phrase to use as an attack, and by extension highlight every other lying, underhanded McCain campaign trick. As an added bonus, he could even point out the way those same people attacked McCain years ago, before McCain hired them.
September 26, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say if Obama's acceptance speech was any indication of how Obama plans to move this GE forward, I suspect he will take some of McCain's talking points and strong suits and cheapen them somehow the way he did with the celebrity jabs and recently with McCain's honor gone since running a sleazy campaign.
September 26, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aside from the fact that the debates aren't really debates,,,,, neither man is a good debater in the university level accepted sense,,,, or high school either as I recall.
McCain is a drama queen and rapid fire serial liar (keep a constant eye on factcheck),,,, and a shit too, according to David Brooks, and Barack is a more Socratic dialogue type,,,, and dreadfully good at it too.
Barack wins by coming of incharge of himself and looking presidential, and McCain looses coming off like a hybrid between a snake oil salesman and a hystrionic fish wife.
The news cycle spin and public perceptions will tell the tale,,,,, and then the polls.
September 26, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really am a bit worried about tonight. McCain is a borderline laughingstock. People are getting ready to see him go right up in flames. If he doesn't, will they start to ask, "Have I misjudged him?"
If does go up in flames, of course, that's the election IMHO.
September 26, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama takes VA, it's all over. He won't need OH or FL. Whether he gets one of the mountain states (CO, NM, or NV) won't matter, either.
If he runs even in York County, he wins it, so it's great to hear that VA Beach is looking good.
September 26, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Skymodem...I'm telling you.
Did you read the article I posted above? Its about how eyes appear in photos in relationship to problems with cancer.
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/26437081/?GT=43001
September 26, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa... check out that poor kid's eye. You could have a point here. I've noticed the stuff others have been pointing out in McCain's pics for a while now. Hell, I just thought it was a facial tic from stress or something, but there are apparently some who work in oncology who have serious doubts about the man's health. Damn, could he really be that blindly (no pun intended) ambitious? And if it turns out that he is having some kind of relapse, what does that say about his Palin pick?
September 26, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I the only one who sees that picture of VA and thinks, "Christmas Tree"? Every. Freaking. Time.
September 26, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good work, ye volunteers of Virginia. I tip my hat to you all, and to your noble brethren in North Carolina. I hope we will be able to toast the same developments in Missouri in another week.
September 26, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Three cheers for everyone working so hard in VA. this is incredibly exciting, though of course things could change at any moment.
I'm sure McCain is getting his nap this afternoon, he's gotta be pooped after spending 24 hours single handedly coming to our rescue and doing nonstop media appearances during his total suspension of campaigning. But---- he does have his quick "zingers" at the ready, I am sure, as well as his laminated "I was a POW" response to all issues. I hope Obama has a good workout prior to the debate, takes his vitamins, and as someone said earlier, just holds his own is fine. Playing it safe (rather than straining to "win") is just fine by me. Go Obama!
September 26, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It says that this scary woman could be president...
Here's an awesomely-shocking article that came from a conservative national columnist this morning -
Its a MUST read for fellow Palin-doubters:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDZiMDhjYTU1NmI5Y2MwZjg2MWNiMWMyYTUxZDkwNTE=
I'm debate-queasy. I need to go lay down.
September 26, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink