Poll: Obama Takes Eight-Point Post-Convention Lead
Here's a poll that has found a decided post-convention bounce for Obama: The new CBS News survey, which contains a slew of good numbers for the Illinois Senator.
* It finds that Obama's lead has jumped to eight points, 48%-40%, up from three points before the convention, which 71 percent of Americans say they watched.
* Obama has taken a six-point lead among independents, 43%-37%, up from a 12-point deficit.
* Obama's lead among women has jumped to 14 points, 50%-36%, and a leap in enthusiasm among his supporters.
* Though there has been no change in the number who say he's prepared for the job, fewer say he isn't prepared -- a key McCain attack line.
* And here's a key number: Fifty-eight percent say Obama is "tough enough," a jump of 10 points since early August, suggesting that Obama's speech, which was dense with specific and pointed attacks on McCain, may have worked in that it displayed a willingness to take the fight to his opponent in a more serious and sustained way that many voters had previously seen.
Full poll here.
I don't believe polls, but seeing this headline makes me sing anyway.
:)
September 1, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
But . . . but I thought Gov. Palin's selection stole every inch of bounce and every decibel of thunder from Obama's speech Thursday night. Do you think it's possible the MSM might have been forcing events into a narrative that's now being undercut by that pesky thing, reality??
September 1, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Although TPM didn't post it, Obama is maintaining his 6 point lead in the Gallup poll today, but each candidate gained a point from the Undecideds:
Obama 49, McCain 43.
Expect McCain to take some of that back as the week unfolds, but I expect Obama to hold onto a couple of points at week's end.
September 1, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was sort of surprised to read the description, and not find the words "Of concern is the fact that Obama has failed to reach 50% of voters..."
I mean, no matter what, there's something of concern for Obama, right?
September 1, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, we should remember that most likely the election will be won 51-49, so I'd rather have the race close, so that we don't get all surprised and upset if the race hinges on a couple states.
I don't want to write a whole book about it, but its really annoying when people say they dont know Obama, or they are concerned about him...come on. obviously these people dont have a TV or internet. All it takes is a freaking google search.
Also its annoying when people say "they dont know where a candidate stands on the issues"... I mean come on, just go the candidates freaking website and do something difficult, like READ the candidates plan. I also want to say that if you go on Obama's website his plans are ten times more specific, like 8 pages or more of a PDF file, McCain only has one page in with no specifics. OK Im done
Video: McCain Acts Presidential…Finally
September 1, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, the election will probably be another where the winner receives LES than 50% of the Popular Vote (unless it is a landslide) - since there are 3rd Party candidates who will likely amass fairly decent totals this year.
But since McCain cannot get out of the low 40s no matter what he does, I think Obama will be happy to get 48-49% of the PV - as long as he gets 270 EVs
September 1, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you think the third parties will get 7-8%? I really can't see that.
McCain topping out around 45%? Sure. (I don't think he'll get that much.) But my guess is it's either a landslide (probably not because of White racism) or, at least, Obama at 51 or 52%.
September 1, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you think the third parties will get 7-8%? I really can't see that.
McCain topping out around 45%? Sure. (I don't think he'll get that much.) But my guess is it's either a landslide (probably not because of White racism) or, at least, Obama at 51 or 52%.
September 1, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you think the third parties will get 7-8%? I really can't see that.
McCain topping out around 45%? Sure. (I don't think he'll get that much.) But my guess is it's either a landslide (probably not because of White racism) or, at least, Obama at 51 or 52%.
September 1, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
What percentage of that nunber relates to the Palin fiasco?
Because it's not just Barack is higher. But McShame is much lower than he's been.
September 1, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sez here the poll was taken last Friday through Sunday.
Palin was 22-11-66 favorable-unfavorable-undecided. Biden was 37-16-47.
Actually teasing out what component of other results is due to Palin is hard to say. Check out the PDF; I'm sure you'll find it interesting.
September 1, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder how the polls would come out if they called cell phones.
September 1, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
The toughness cross-tab is a triumph for the BSTEP. We finally figured out how to respond to Karl Rove.
September 1, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You got it!!!!
We sure did. I think everyone was waiting for that.
September 1, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are crazy (though it's nice to see this one). But how do the pollsters reconcile such inconsistencies?
On another note, that woman in the video on the right side of this page looks like Bristol! And she looks bummed.
September 1, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what about those lunch pail, shot and a beer, Rust Belt, hard-working, blue collar, salt of the Earth, working class...
September 1, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is amazing to me how some folk's votes, here in the year 2008, count more than others.
I am of this Ilk you describe, and most of those to whom I am related vote at their intellectual peril, but their votes still count the same as mine.
I hear Obama's call back to honor. May the country come to its senses. And Sarah Palin, bless her heart, is going to help with that.
September 1, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll was taken before Obama/Biden 60 minutes appearance was aired. They did very will last night on 60 minutes, and that has a large older viewers audience.
Something that occurred to me, while watching Senator Obama being interviewed side by side with Biden.
Synergy.
Did you notice how the presence of Biden has provided Senator Obama with a comfort zone. Did you notice how crisp, concise, and clear Senator Obama's remarks and responses were. How quickly he challenged Steve, when he implied that Obama does not like beer. This was an Obama without any of the response hesitation and stammering ticks that we have seen from him in the past.
I think he is energized by no longer being out there on his own. Also, I think a little of Biden's immediate response style has rubbed off on him. This was the best I have seen Obama in the interview format, to date.
I think that Biden may have already given us a big payoff. Last night we saw a composed, in charge Obama, that looked in every way: Presidential.
September 1, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
O yes, liam - Biden has given Obama new confidence, I think.
They are really great together.
September 1, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. The chemistry is great. Obama is at ease with Biden around.
Obama also seems better at hitting the talking points, which made his speech more fluid.
September 1, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't see the segment, but I heard it. And they sounded really comfortable together. And Michelle and Jill look like they genuinely adore each other, which is wonderful to see.
September 1, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just got to see the 60 minute clip at a friends. I CANNOT wait to see McCain/Palin. NO WAY can they be a good as those too. I have always liked Joe (full disclos. - I am from DE) but even more after seeing him with Obama. They looked so at ease with each other, like a great team. Very confident, very at ease with each other. And the answers they gave. How SMOOTH, QUICK and just plain GOOD.
Sorry for all the caps but I am so excited that it was seen by so many people and then they get to see McCain/Palin and it will be over. No way can McCain do that well.
I like the part when Obama said Joe was just as blunt about being wrong as he is when he is right. Contrasted very nicely with the perception we have of the Pope like infalliblity of Bush/Cheney.
September 1, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wasn't thrilled by the Biden VP pick, but I have to say that I really like the way that I really like the Obama/Biden chemistry. They complement one another nicely.
September 1, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
We've all been paying WAY too much attention to these early horserace numbers. That said, the widening gender gap is interesting. I suspect GOP internals showed the same thing, a development that might explain the surprise choice of Palin as VP.
September 1, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ayuh, you're probably right.
And how's that working out? This whole process feels a great deal like Harriet Meirs' SCOTUS skid mark.
September 1, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I bitched about Biden before he was the choice - o I really did. A lot. That's what I get - I didn't know a thing about him, really. I had forgotten his story altogether.
I was so wrong about Biden.
September 1, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've always liked Joe. I think he's the real deal. I see him as the anti-Cheney, and his help getting real legislation through the Senate will be crucial.
You know, that silly governing stuff...
September 1, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like I say - I just didn't know him. I really like him now - he's a hell of a hell of a fella.
September 1, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me as well. Biden is a really interesting pick. Unlike McLame, Obama is not only interested in winning the election. He understands that he also has to lead a nation after he is elected, and his choice, I think, shows that consideration. Biden will be a stabilizing force and a great advocate for Obama, but it will be Obama's agenda.
Also, after 8 years, Biden is unlikely to run for election himself, which leaves the opportunity open to others such as Schweitzer. (I'm hoping Hillary gets a Supreme Court nom.)
September 1, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yes! Hillary for SCOTUS, absolutely.
September 1, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC is reporting that Sarah Palin has hired a lawyer in relation to Troopergate.
September 1, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's internal polling had to be horrible. It had to show the BO was putting some distance between himself and John. Thats the only reason to take such risk and pick Palin. She maybe the nail in McCain's coffin.
If he wanted a safer Palin type pick, why didnt he just pick Bobby Jindhl? Yes he is younger, but the man doesnt have this much drama around him.
September 1, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're maybe attributing more deliberation and sobriety to McCain's decision-making process than it deserves.
This man is a loose cannon.
September 1, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC is reporting that Sarah Palin has hired a lawyer in relation to Troopergate.
September 1, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awwww - bye bye, Ms Sarah.
September 1, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm thinking you're right, T.
If Lee Atwater himself came back from the grave, even he couldn't spin this back.
She's done. book the flight back to AK now, Sarah.
September 1, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
She didn't have one already?
September 1, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which says something about her political judgment, doesn't it?
In 2008?
September 1, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I consider these to be more evidence of a bounce:
Would Obama be an effective commander in chief?
Very Likely 29 (+8)
Somewhat Likely 34 (-3)
Not Likely 34 (-6)
Has Obama made it clear what he will do as President?
Yes 50 (+9)
No 44 (-11)
September 1, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC just reported that Palin hired a lawyer for Troopergate.
September 1, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
That, as is everything else about this campaign, is good for McCain
September 1, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's Palin lawyer problem.
September 1, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Better late than never, I suppose. And the national exposure can't have helped her any!
September 1, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jaysus. Could the Palin selection really be unravelling this fast??
September 1, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Intrade's number for that is nearly 97%.
September 1, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
unless I'm reading it wrong....
September 1, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
We appear to be in a whole new age in politics. We're getting goods that would take days, maybe even weeks in the Old World.
The blogs can be credited with unmaksing this interloper of a veep pick, for example. It was the dumbest idea in the world to reignite the abortion debate because Dems will always win on this one.
Think of the Woe the country is saved by a quick unraveling? Think of the impact of importance of Truth, and how that will now reflect on the Obama campaign? The door is now wide open for the issues and for governing.
Fewer and fewer will be taking McWhoaDude seriously after this.
Thank you for doing your part! :-)
September 1, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know I'm smiling.
Next up, we get to eviscerate Droopy or else Romney.
September 1, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Palin's nomination is deep-sixed, the replacement will probably be Romney, if only to placate Conservatives whose hearts beat a little bit faster after Friday. Lieberman will only provoke that crowd to turn on McCain in what'll amount to an electoral lynching.
September 1, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aye and indeed. To win, however, he is going to have to pick Hillary. I mean seriously, in a razor-thin close race, McWTF?!? cannot afford to loos a single % point, and Palin is just going to drown him out.
As I suspect she will not be going quietly. Do barracuda bark?
September 1, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Hillary did say that she was the candidate of "hard working White Americans" (everyone seems to have forgotten that . . . but I won't), so sharing the ticket with McCain will only feel like destiny.
September 1, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is just extrordinary. Many souls are going soon be tested!
September 1, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought I was as anti-Hillary as they come, but I think you're doing her an injustice in thinking she would still run with McCain. Maybe before she and Bill committed themselves last week, but not now.
September 1, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
When tyrants tremble sick with fear
And hear their death-knell ringing
When friends rejoyce both far and near
How can I keep from singing
- trad
LK
September 1, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
When tyrants tremble sick with fear
And hear their death-knell ringing
When friends rejoyce both far and near
How can I keep from singing
- trad
LK
September 1, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
When tyrants tremble sick with fear
And hear their death-knell ringing
When friends rejoyce both far and near
How can I keep from singing
- trad
LK
September 1, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
When tyrants tremble sick with fear
And hear their death-knell ringing
When friends rejoyce both far and near
How can I keep from singing
- trad
LK
September 1, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm beginning to think the Palin pick was a suicide bomb. She draws the blame for bringing the national ticket down, but draws in right wingers down ticket where they might not have even shown up election day, thereby keeping congressional losses to a minimum. Then, the Republicans get to claim higher ground because they chose a woman. In any event, it sure smells like desperation at worst or miscalculation and amateurism at best.
September 1, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the latter. I'm convinced of that. The other scenario is far too nuanced for this bunch.
If they could dream up strategies like that, they'd officially be too smart to throw their lot in with McCain.
September 1, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not overlook the fact that she brought them in $10 million. That would sweeten the taste of having to put up with her drama for a weekend.
September 1, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
71% said they watched the convention.
But only 38 million were counted by Nielsen as seeing Obama's speech. Even doubling that number would get us a total audience somewhere below 35% of the adult population.
What am I getting wrong here?
September 1, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nielson only counts a few networks. Doesn't even count PBS. Or the web. Not sure about the others. But that is a minimum and even the NY Times said the number was "no less than 40 million."
September 1, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Intertubes.
September 1, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever happened to idiotic?
Idiotic would have gone to town these past 3 days!
September 1, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thats a good question, its like he/she just disappeared.
September 1, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saw him/her just a day or two ago.
September 1, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hopefully on a well-deserved vacation. He/she worked pretty hard this summer!
September 1, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Off to fill up the ol' Impala with supplies for the Gustav refugees that have shown up here in Denton...
September 1, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good for you, LBJ's Brain....
September 1, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, Labor Day polls are useful for entertainment only™.
That said, here's an interesting nugget. It asks how enthusiastic Obama and McCain supporters feel about their candidate.
Ob Mc
67 25 enthusiastic
16 49 with reservations
07 08 party nominee
08 17 other guy sucks
September 1, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is a sick world but the pregnancy story provides the excuse for the MSM to talk about the other stories like Troopergate that by themselves don't attract a lot of public interest.
September 1, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
well it is a sick world (mais, plus ca change - ) but she really did start this with her ridiculous birth story and her boasting about how wonderful she was for having the baby.
Apparently, it's as we always said: these anti-abortionists who want every little sperm and egg to be declared a person, basically could care less once they really are people.
Their interest doesn't seem to go much past the birth canal, honest to gods!
September 1, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is infuriating because it is so blatenly unconstitutional.
That aside, this layered sickness proceeds from birth control to the adolescent tee-hee over sex in general. From there, we peel back another layer and find the irrational need to control the acts of others, particularly women. The babies are simply vehicles for the abuse.
In my mind, men serve three crucial functions during such a women's health emergency:
1. Sit the fuck down
2. Shut the fuck up
3. And pull the car around when it's time
Seven times curse Palin's false sanctimony.
Pax,
M.
September 1, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Bill Bennett telling Wolf that of couse abstinence only is the only way to teach sex ed. Do these folks define cognitive dissonance or what? They can't ever find a fact in front of their eyes.
September 1, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
the Repugs are trying to kill a big story with a bigger one, clear and simple.
Palin = Cheney = abuse of power.
the repugs are going to compare Sarah Palin to Margaret Thatcher.
September 1, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Palin has to withdraw from the ticket: You know, with usual bullshit about family reasons: Wink Wink , Nudge Nudge, that translates into: take a hike Sarah, you are killing the ticket:
My political instincts tell me that McCain will find himself in a gender corner: can he really settle for a man, as a replacement, after he opted for such a lightweight woman in the first place.
It would be hard for him to make a case that none of the women of his party are qualified to replace the featherweight from Putting Foot your Moosejaw.
September 1, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
But not hard to make the case that none of them was willing!
September 1, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty soon that special needs baby is going to need his full-time care from Sarah.
I suspect she'll find that it's her "christian duty" or something.
September 1, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not one who reads too much into polls. That said, this new CBS Poll is very encouraging. And despite what the MSM is reporting Obama is way ahead of McCain in the general election.
September 1, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poll numbers are encouraging. It's the ground game that will win this for Obama.
One of my evangelical relatives sent a viral smear e-mail to my sister who forwarded it to my dad, very concerned that it was true. The e-mail said Obama would raise taxes after he's elected.
My dad and I spent the better part of the day working out a procedure to respond to these e-mails, rebut the lies then innocently send the corrected e-mail back to everyone on the distribution list. (We found the rebuttals to the e-mail we were working on later on snopes, but learned a lot in the process nonetheless.)
My point is that we can leave no stone unturned. The polls will be mercurial right up to the end. Nothing can be taken for granted.
I picked up a call list from campaign headquarters today. That will be my evening project for the week. I'm trying to round up a team to canvass Saturday morning.
There's something for everyone. If you're not in the trenches yet, jump in! You'll be glad you did.
September 1, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the last 40 years (since 1968), no Democratic nominee has won the Presidency without being ahead by at least 17 points right after his convention. So 8 points is not enough of a margin for Barack when viewed historically.
Carter was ahead by 25 points after his convention in 1976 and won the election by a few points.
Clinton was ahead by 24 points after his 1992 convention and won by 5 points in Novemeber.
In 1996, Clinton led by 17 points after his convention and ended up winning by 8 points in November.
The Republican has gained ground between Labor Day and November in every election since 1976 except for 1992 and 2000.
September 1, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is what stat-head types would call a "small sample size." There have been only 10 presidential elections including 1968, way too few to make any kind of real judgment about regarding statistical happenings of such a dubious type.
September 1, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
if you want to see the obama/biden 60 minutes... see go to the CBS website. It was great to see my President and VP... :-)
September 1, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republicans seem to have manipulated Obama into stopping his campaign, while McCain pretends to not campaign at the same time he pretends to be President. I think the Democrats should call McCain on his playacting during the hurricane and also remind voters about McCain's complicity in Katrina and his opposition to Katrina relief bills. They should talk about the Republicans' need to hide Bush and Cheney (as opposed to Clinton and Gore). Especially as the Republican convention goes back to business and usual, the Democrats need to keep up the criticism that were so successful in Denver.
September 1, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republicans seem to have manipulated Obama into stopping his campaign, while McCain pretends to not campaign at the same time he pretends to be President. I think the Democrats should call McCain on his playacting during the hurricane and also remind voters about McCain's complicity in Katrina and his opposition to Katrina relief bills. They should talk about the Republicans' need to hide Bush and Cheney (as opposed to Clinton and Gore). Especially as the Republican convention goes back to business and usual, the Democrats need to keep up the criticisms that were so successful in Denver.
September 1, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
When tyrants tremble sick with fear
And hear their death-knell ringing
When friends rejoyce both far and near
How can I keep from singing
- trad
LK
September 1, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
When tyrants tremble sick with fear
And hear their death-knell ringing
When friends rejoyce both far and near
How can I keep from singing
- trad
LK
September 1, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink