Poll: Obama Edges Ahead In Three Key Battlegrounds
A new round of Marist polls gives Barack Obama the lead in three key swing states:
• In Michigan, Obama has built up a strong lead of 52%-43% among likely voters, outside of the ±4% margin of error.
• In Ohio, Obama is ahead 47%-45% among likely voters, within the ±4.5% margin of error. Most polls have McCain ahead here, and this might explain the difference: In this one, Obama has consolidated the support of 90% of Democrats, while most others show him losing more defectors to McCain.
• In Pennsylvania, Obama has a lead of 49%-44% among likely voters, with a ±4.5% margin of error.
The economic crisis could be helping Obama to consolidate Democratic support, with over 40% of voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania listing the economy as their top issue, and a full majority saying so in Michigan.
GOBAMA!
September 19, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. We. Can.
September 19, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, Noes! McSame is waaaay ahead of Obama! 27 points in Oklahoma. How is he gonna pull this one out???
Must be something going wrong in his campaign. Not enough attacking, or maybe too much. Gotta fire all dem bums.
September 19, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Does Obama have an Oklahoma problem?
September 19, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
He has a cowboy problem. They just can't quit the Republican Party.
September 19, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL, good subtle BB Mountain reference.
September 19, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they're too busy sing Oh What a Beautiful Morning to notice the country's going down the crapper.
September 19, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not in some areas of Tulsa. Went there recently and thought I was in Frisco! It was beautiful to see all the signs...
As for the rest of the state? Oy vey...
September 19, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, McSame is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead in Oklahoma. Says a lot about Oklahoma. Some people like being lied to and having their asses kicked, and some people don't. I don't think firing is in order, I think stopping the inbreeding and getting an education might just be the key!
September 19, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
It looks like McCain has a lock on Alabama +30 as well. We are dooooooooomed
September 19, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Man, after some pretty solid rumors that we were gonna make a play for Utah, this IS bad news ...
September 19, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if these are the "rednecks" Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild was referring to?
September 19, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent.
All we need is MI and PA. But now OH is tightening up to a dead heat. McCain will have to spend more resources and money there, rather than in Florida.
September 19, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Same thing with Indiana, the more McCain has to spend in OH, PA and MI, the more he will slip in FL and IN.
September 19, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Obama is in Florida today.
I hope he comes through Indiana again and makes a good effort to flip us hoosiers. That would be sweet.
September 19, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is just the beginning of a major shift.
Also, this doesn't take into account the huge numbers of new Democratic voters. November 4th could be a landslide... but I'm not going to get my hopes up too high yet.
http://thepajamapundit.com/
September 19, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Landslide? Hell, I'll be ecstatic if we 'merely' pull off a narrow win.
Robert
September 19, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The state polls beginning to reflect Obama's lead in the national polls.
September 19, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. And we're not out of this financial storm yet. Not by a long shot. It's been interesting to see how simple Obama's message has been the last few days (the economy is not fundamentally sound) compared to McCain, who is grasping at anything to try and make something stick.
Pufferfish
September 19, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just sent another small donation, even though I hadn't planned to this month. Let's present McInsane with so many battlefields he has to invest in that the RNC can't possibly raise enough money to help him keep up.
September 19, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep more of this to come I feel. Folks Mccain is officially in:
A pork salesman in downtown Beruit land aka ffed
September 19, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
You folks are the funniest group I've found! I never fail to chuckle, smile or even LOL at my desk.
Thanks for the humor, folks. You're comments are better than reading The Onion!
Thought you might enjoy this: http://www.salon.com/opinion/keillor/2008/09/10/palin/print.html
For all you Garrison Keillor fans, enjoy!
September 19, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, we're here all week. Be sure to tip your waitress!
September 19, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ans please buy our albums! They're available on ITunes and Amazon.
September 19, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO!
September 19, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course there's a 1 drink minimum, but feel free to pick up another one.
September 19, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. The Keillor essay is superb.
September 19, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
And these are likely voters, which means they voted in the last two presidential elections. Newly registered voters from Obama's extensive GOTV campaign and voters under 25 years old wouldn't be counted in these numbers (in the latter case because they couldn't have voted in 2000).
September 19, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that depends on the pollster. Some pollsters are correctly calculating for new registration.
September 19, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin is now at -4 favorable/unfavorable! haha
September 19, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
dropping like a lead zepplin.
September 19, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
P.S. I hope you don't mind, but..
I set up an Obama fundrasing page for donations. I've been sending it to a small list of friends and family, and we are up to $135!
Today is 2-4-1 day. I promise, if anyone makes a contribution to help me get to my $1,000 goal, I'll match it today. I challenge anyone to donate $500, I'll match it now!
Check it out here: http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/BrooklynKevin.
Please feel free to send this link on to friends and family.
Again, hope you don't mind. I've given almost the max so I've got to hope for and rely on the generosity of others.
Have a great day!!!
--
Kevin B
I'm saying it now: President Barack H. Obama, Jr., 2009 - 2017
September 19, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the important thing here that Obama has done is
(a.) kept his message consistent.
(b.) kept different states close.
What this does is force McCain to talk louder out of both sides of his mouth. Obama has the same base in both states, but McCain has to win over moderate retirees to win Florida while firing up culture warriors in Nevada and Colorado. When he fights harder for one, he alienates the other.
And the thing about big swing states that Kerry lost; McCain has to win every one, and he can only lose one small one. He has to keep the wingnut stuff up to keep turnout high in the rockies, but he has to tone it down to keep moderates in Florida.
September 19, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have an image of McSame on the floor, tied into a pretzel, playing Twister . . .
September 19, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
With Palin standing near by saying "Put me at the top of ticket. I'm the one they'll vote for.
September 19, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. Did you hear the abuse that KO and Maddow laid on her last night for that "Palin/McCain Administration" remark? A joy to behold. And all the while, Todd stands in the background, eyes narrowed, surveying the crowd like a Secret Service agent. Creepy. We gotta keep these folks the hell away from the White House.
September 19, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would make a hell of a 527 ad...
September 19, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't agree more. Well played, worthy adversary!
September 19, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two things:
1) 538 ranks Marist as one of the worst pollsters out there; they rank below ARG. So take the numbers with a grain of salt.
2) The MI poll was conducted 9/16-17, i.e. entirely after Lehman went belly-up. The OH and PA polls were conducted 9/11-15; were they conducted at the same time as the MI poll, they would likely be less tight.
September 19, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
How many more McCain gaffes before the RNC decides to quit wasting money on commercials for him and start trying harder to get more seats?
September 19, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tony fair points. Yep looked and Marist does have a bad track record. Though surely nothing is as bad as CNU :)
September 19, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen-IN-Pres: McCain 49, Obama 47. Was 49-43 a month ago. Notably, this one also has Obama winning more than 90% of Democrats.
September 19, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting note to their poll is that the Repub governor is +27 over his Dem challenger. Obama is pulling a lot moderates his way in Indiana.
September 19, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dang. Don't know what percentages I was looking at. +16 lead.
September 19, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man the more time passes the more that Mccain convention bounce is beginning to resemble the empheral Mondale/Ferraro bounce. TNR has a superb article on Quayle v Palin. All the crowing noise the right made is eerily similiar to the BS they lumped about Quayle before he became the worst VP pick in modern history. Palin is not only gone as a factor it is almost silly season to watch the way she is coddled. Energy expert? Did anyone hear that explanation she gave on oil at a town hall yesterday? It was pitiful.
September 19, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tony I bet their AA sample is off (as usual) and love to see party ID representation. Ras has inflated repubs most of the year.
September 19, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that working people are listening to Obama, he needs to double down and come out against NAFTA to really galvanize their support.
September 19, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't Keating an Oklahoman?
September 19, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
As these polls continue to show bad news for McCain expect the sleaze factor to go up and up. McCain as proven he is willing to do and say anything to win the election. I don't expect him to be deterred by last weeks bad press on this. He knows he can't win talking about policy and issues. Character assassination is his only hope.
Already today he's launched is first obvious race baiting ad.
September 19, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
And then there is the "stream of lies" tactic. Today he was at it again saying Obama would raise taxes on those making $42,000 or more.
September 19, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of the three biggies in the mix (Bush, McLame and Obama) Obama was the only one with the guts to take questions from reporters today!
Greg, could you please post that video if you get it?
I saw it live!
September 19, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I bet that will win him a zillion kudo points from the media folk on the ground. Probably get more air time than snipets from McCain's "speech"
September 19, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't bet on it -- not even the frontpagers in our neck of the woods are taking notice :-(
September 19, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, THATS a big deal, actually. I would hope the media would pick up on this...
September 19, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the thing was he answered those questions with substance. I was surprised he took questions because this financial crisis is complicated and a lot of people really dont know whats going on. He broke his answers down to answer to reporter questions and help the less informed voter understand.
September 19, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blog comment from Rhode Island:
"Here in Rhode Island, Obama is 26 points up. What the hell is wrong with the rest of you people?"
September 19, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I answer from Ohio, "You really don't wanna know- trust me on this."
September 19, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Barack starts with the Football Referee metaphor to describe regulation, then he's taking Ohio by 10% points. Book it. :)
September 19, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nailed it.
We're going to win Ohio.
Book it!
September 19, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep up the great work Buckeye Terrorist Fist Jab Nation!!
September 19, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Down here in Florida, the big cities seem to be going Obama, but the smaller towns between them are covered with McCain supporters. In Tampa, a confederate flag flies high over one of the busiest interstates in the state, and I think racism is still rampant in the smaller towns especially. McCain's latest ad is only going to fuel the fire.
September 19, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It maybe too soon to speculate, but it appears the Palin-McCain ticket 'honeymoon' has completely dissipated. Reality is sinking into voters minds that Obama-Biden are best equipped to address the problems of Americans with a nuanced approach.
September 19, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
i am almost ashamed to say this. but at one time i was actually considering mccain 50/50 against obama. back when the primaries were going on and his maverick appeal was high. well, that high is gone ia many ways.
Palin totally convinced me this man was off his rocker. at 72 yrs old, and he picks a woman with so little experience she makes obama look like Napoleon.
And she is shady at that. i was sold after the DNC, but her pick actually scared me.
Mccain has a hard lesson coming. sure there is racism in america, but even the racist may have to hold their nose and vote obama, because its getting more obvious by the mccain continuous slide and even free fall in the polls, that americans are afraid of america in the hands of Palin. At mccain age everyone thinks Palin will be president.
America would be the laughiing stock of the world if that happens...i shudder at the thought.
September 19, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I say unto you, that likewise joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.
September 19, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice post Boss, welcome aboard.
Just one thing I would add: if McCain wins America will not become the laughingstock of the world, she will continue to be.
Robert
September 19, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wall Street Journal bitch-slaps McCain
September 19, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just watched Obama in Florida, he is on fire, and he is kicking ass big time...
And he is up by 5 in the latest gallup.
This is best week ever...
September 19, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
..Was watching Obama in FL as well: He's really hitting his stride, isn't he?
Of course he's always been polished, but something is different now: He seems almost joyful.
I reckon it doesn't hurt that the GOP is writing new materiel for him every time one of them opens their mouths...
September 19, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Si se puede!!!
September 19, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
After all the polls coming in this week I have one word:
Party on, Garth.
September 19, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Party on TP!
Too soon for me to celebrate just yet, but I have already scheduled time off for Nov 5th...
September 19, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rumor has it that Georgia, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Alaska are planning to join together, secede from the US and form a separate nation called OGANA
September 19, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey!
I'm sure South Carolina (1st to seceed dontcha know!) will want a piece of that action.
Hail SCOGANA!
September 19, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
You really think those Palmettos, those who hail from the Cradle of Secession are going to ever want to match destinies with a bunch of (Georgia excepted) Yankees? I think not.
Robert
September 19, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just reviewing the Daily Kos polls and the only area of the country where Obama trails is the South...
September 19, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
...the only area of the country where Obama trails is the South...
Feel our pain.
On the other hand it was right here in SC where Obama got his mojo back after New Hamphshire...
September 19, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink