Poll: Obama Clings To Shrinking Lead In Colorado
A new poll suggests that John McCain's bounce may have helped his numbers in the Western swing state of Colorado -- but he's still narrowly trailing Barack Obama, another sign that the bounce hasn't significantly changed the race in many of the key states.
The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 48%, McCain 47%, within the ±3.2% margin of error. A month ago, Obama led by a 48%-44% margin in PPP's survey.
This comes after a Rasmussen poll yesterday of another Western state, New Mexico, where McCain took a 49%-47% edge after having trailed by four points a few weeks ago.
One interesting number in the new Colorado poll is that the selection of Sarah Palin doesn't seem to have moved women voters there. Obama leads among women by a 51%-43% margin, similar to his 49%-42% advantage a month ago. The real movement has been among men -- the two were tied 47%-47% a month ago, but now McCain has moved into a 50%-43% lead.















A new poll suggests that John McCain's bounce may have helped his numbers in the Western swing state of Colorado -- but he's still narrowly trailing Barack Obama, another sign that the bounce hasn't significantly changed the race in many of the key states.
Are you just fucking with us now?!?!
The same poll both shows that his bounce both helped AND that didn't help!?!?!
September 11, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me try that again.
The same poll shows that his bounce both helped AND didn't help!?!?!
September 11, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
McCain Having Hard Time Without Palin
September 11, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
A three point shift in a poll with a 3.2 pt margin of error.
Yaawwwnnn.
September 11, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the MOE for internals like women is way bigger than 3.2, double at least.
September 11, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I mentioned the same the other day. I know Eric is doing his job with good will, but I'm tired of this lack of precision. Eric, please don't say "lead" or "edge" or "behind" or "trail" or like that when those differences are not statistically significant. Also, yes, we can go to those original reports and check ourselves, but as long as you are reporting poll results as a pro journalist, you should at least mention whether the universe is LV's or RV's. And even if those polls are mostly targeted at LV's, this concept is an extremely elusive beast.
September 11, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know, I love hyperbole in language.
"Cling" makes me think that he's getting ready to fall off a cliff--which isn't near the case. It's like business people talking about "putting out fires" when they have the most boring job in the world. I mean, headlines like "Obama's lead looks less significant than yesterday" are real yawners, right?
September 11, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
why is there so much obsession with polls when there hasnt even been a first debate yet. Democrats should calm down, and get tough. Thats why you lose every four years. Hopefully with the new voter registrations Obama is probably higher then the polls are indicating.
McCain Having Hard Time Without Palin
September 11, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thats the same thing Ive been telling people. Stop hyperventilating over these polls. I do believe Obama is not going to hold back in these debates. He's going to give McCain a new asshole.
September 11, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough. But polls concern me precisely because Obama *hasn't* gotten tough. This is a knife fight. Where's my guy who said he was going to bring a gun?
September 11, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough. But polls concern me precisely because Obama *hasn't* gotten tough. This is a knife fight. Where's my guy who said he was going to bring a gun?
September 11, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is weird. Colorado has a large evangelical base. I wasn't expecting good numbers there as a result of the Palin pick.
September 11, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not clear what you mean. You weren't expecting good numbers for Obama, and these represent good numbers?
September 11, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Western guys love a hot chick in glasses with a gun. It's that simple.
Seriously, though, a friend of mine relayed some observations he made about Palin supporters he knows. We live in NJ so it's hardly the land of evangelicals and fundamentalists. Almost all of these Palin supporters are behind her and like her for one overriding reason - she's pro-life.
Sad. In times like these where the top issues facing America are the economy, war, terrorism, education, healthcare, and our international reputation, these people - some of whom were undecided or weak Obama supporters before the pick - are willing to throw their support behind McCain primarily because his veep pick is anti-abortion.
WTF?
September 11, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's the Ohio Quinnipiac Poll, Eric?
Oh that's right, it shows Obama ahead by 5.
That won't attract the Trolls, now would it?
September 11, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very well said. And why has there *still* after all this time not been any apparent effort to learn how to interpret polls before posting them? And to learn what "margin of error" means? There is no excuse for failing to try learn after so long.
September 11, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW, Ras just had a poll in CO a day or two ago that showed Obama up by 3, 49-46. There it is again - McCain struggling to break that 45-46 mark in key swing states.
September 11, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Colorado has me concerned. It's as close to must win state for Obama as there is. Lots of religious right types as well as men who like gun totin' gal.
Obama better do a few more campaign stops in CO.
September 11, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought that too. But the latest poll in OH is quite a pleasant surprise. I've been expecting OH to go to McCain. It is a must-win state for him. If Obama takes it, CO is not that critical at all. You can play around with the scenarios at www.270towin.com.
September 11, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think New Mexico is even more in that "must-win" category than CO, which is why the latest Ras from that state worries me, although it may be an outlier - need to see more post-convention polls from that state before we can make that determination.
September 11, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, wasn't it like a 12-pt spread just 2 weeks ago? What we probably have are 2 outlier polls back-to-back. I kind of think that if Udall goes on the attack against scary Pearce, the state will be more likely to go Obama. The numbers there are strangely close--especially since Pearce is the embodiment of an ogre.
September 11, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to be hammering McCain over his comments about the western water pact. That'd all but assure him Colorado.
September 11, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, ENOUGH...
Enough with your stupid headlines!!!
Enough
September 11, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Couldn't agree with you more, psmdfc.
September 11, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe Klein is the man. Click through Josh's link on the home page.
September 11, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously. Who woulda thunk it?
This is how fraudulent Sarah Palin and John McCain actually are: even Klein gets it.
September 11, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who knows why, but he's been on fire lately, on TV, too. Maybe the deja vu of the Repug lie machine is getting to him.
September 11, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
static "cling"
September 11, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Andy Sullivan has his problems, but this, from today, is just a gem:
September 11, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember when McCain angrily shouted at his wife in front of his friends and called her a "c***"? (Do look it up if you haven't heard. It's just a Google search away.) Well, here's McCain shoving a little old war widow in a wheelchair:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/51660.html
I wonder what we'd be hearing if Obama had behaved in such a manner.
Why, oh why, hasn't this story broken yet? This directly attacks McCain's supposed strength, namely, his honor and his character. Tell me who could think him of good character after reading about this? And it has the virtue of actually being true!
Why all the reticence to bring up damaging information that's true? Why don't they do to McCain what Biden says you ought to do to any lying bully---bloody his nose!
The money quote from the article above:
--
Back in Washington, families of POW/MIAs said they have seen McCain's wrath repeatedly. Some families charged that McCain hadn't been aggressive enough about pursuing their lost relatives and has been reluctant to release relevant documents. McCain himself was a prisoner of war for five-and-a-half years during the Vietnam War.
In 1992, McCain sparred with Dolores Alfond, the chairwoman of the National Alliance of Families for the Return of America's Missing Servicemen and Women, at a Senate hearing. McCain's prosecutor-like questioning of Alfond — available on YouTube — left her in tears.
Four years later, at her group's Washington conference, about 25 members went to a Senate office building, hoping to meet with McCain. As they stood in the hall, McCain and an aide walked by.
Six people present have written statements describing what they saw. According to the accounts, McCain waved his hand to shoo away Jeannette Jenkins, whose cousin was last seen in South Vietnam in 1970, causing her to hit a wall.
As McCain continued walking, Jane Duke Gaylor, the mother of another missing serviceman, approached the senator. Gaylor, in a wheelchair equipped with portable oxygen, stretched her arms toward McCain.
"McCain stopped, glared at her, raised his left arm ready to strike her, composed himself and pushed the wheelchair away from him," according to
Eleanor Apodaca, the sister of an Air Force captain missing since 1967.
McCain's staff wouldn't respond to requests for comment about specific incidents.
September 11, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
*yawn*
MADISON, Wis. -- Tuesday's primary marked exactly eight weeks until November's presidential election, and a new Wisconsin poll shows Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain in the state.
The poll from Strategic Vision shows Obama leading McCain by three points, 46 to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided.
The survey was conducted from Sept. 5 through Sept. 7 and has a margin of error of plus/minus 3 percent.
The results show a closer race than a similar poll in August, which showed Obama with a 5 point lead.
September 11, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to know the numbers if you have them on the political makeup of those surveyed. There was a report out earlier today that said these recent polls showing an upswing for McCain were not using the same demographics as the earlier polls. That they had weighted the republicans to high in comparrison to those other polls. Wouldn't that skew any results we are now seeing?
September 11, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the state of Wisconsin. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Wisconsin, aged 18+, and conducted September 5-7, 2008 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
1. If the election for President were held today would you support the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joseph Biden or the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin?
Obama/Biden 46%
McCain/Palin 43%
Other 3%
Undecided 8%
2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 37%
Undecided 11%
3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden?
Favorable 43%
Unfavorable 33%
Undecided 24%
4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain?
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 39%
Undecided 9%
5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?
Favorable 55%
Unfavorable 29%
Undecided 16%
6. Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain?
John McCain 48%
Barack Obama 41%
Undecided 11%
7. Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain?
John McCain 45%
Barack Obama 43%
Undecided 12%
8. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 23%
Disapprove 66%
Undecided 11%
9. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 23%
Disapprove 65%
Undecided 12%
10. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq?
Approve 30%
Disapprove 62%
Undecided 8%
11. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism?
Approve 51%
Disapprove 40%
Undecided 9%
12. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jim Doyle's overall job performance?
Approve 53%
Disapprove 35%
Undecided 12%
13. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Russ Feingold's overall job performance?
Approve 58%
Disapprove 33%
Undecided 9%
14. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Herb Kohl's overall job performance?
Approve 52%
Disapprove 37%
Undecided 11%
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job?
Approve 16%
Disapprove 74%
Undecided 10%
September 11, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not too worried about this poll - I'm certain Bay-RACK O-BAAAAM-ah will take Wisconsin. But how the fuck does McCain have a bigger lead on who will better handle the economy than he does on Iraq? Why does he lead at all on the economy? And cheeseheads out there who can describe the scene on the ground up there? - ads?, local press?, reception of Palin?, etc.
September 11, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, you MUST be just jerking our chains with those headlines. "Clings" to "shrinking" lead. Okay. In that deep-blue state of Colorado, no less!
September 11, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is amazing to me just how similar Palin is to George Bush. Actually, Bush seems substantive by comparison.
There is a photo that morphs Bush and Palin -- I saw it on Huffpo the other day. Something like that could really take the shine off of Sarah. Someone needs to use that photo in an ad.
September 11, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you put lipstick on a pit bull, its still a pit bull.
September 11, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to say it but I think after the Palin interview the McCain /Palin ticket is going to rise to new heights. She looks really good in front of a camera and that is all the average American understands. They don't know issues and I am sure Charlie Gibson is going to go so easy on her.
Obama is no longer running against McCain he is running against her and unfortunately this still very bigoted middle America will pick a white republican women over a black democratic male any day.
September 11, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's campaign manager is right--this election is not going to be about the issues. A personality cult is forming around Sarah Palin and it's making Obama look boring by comparison. Both McCain and Palin's image must be torn down and Obama's must be built up. McCain's image is built on honor and sacrifice. He must be made to look dishonorable and selfish. Palin's image is the mom next door. Perhaps she can be made to look exotic and dangerous. Obama is cool and aloof. Lots more puppies and daughters and rainbows might work. My 2 cents.
September 11, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to say it but I think after the Palin interview the McCain /Palin ticket is going to rise to new heights. She looks really good in front of a camera and that is all the average American understands. They don't know issues and I am sure Charlie Gibson is going to go so easy on her.
Obama is no longer running against McCain he is running against her and unfortunately this still very bigoted middle America will pick a white republican women over a black democratic male any day.
I agree with California Dreams, she is very much like George Bush but worse. She is articulate with a twang, she can think and talk at the same time, and makes George look like a moderate.
Dangerous very dangerous.
September 11, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are letting Eric's stupid headlines get to you. They used to make me nervous, too, but then I started thinking of my own headlines (sometimes even submitting them) and I began feeling much better.
September 11, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are letting Eric's stupid headlines get to you. They used to make me nervous, too, but then I started thinking of my own headlines (sometimes even submitting them) and I began feeling much better.
September 11, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are letting Eric's stupid headlines get to you. They used to make me nervous, too, but then I started thinking of my own headlines (sometimes even submitting them) and I began feeling much better.
September 11, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love this quote:
"McCain, by the way, is the Republican nominee for president. You may remember him from the Sarah Palin convention in Minneapolis, where he gave a speech and was congratulated by Sarah Palin."
Great atricle - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/opinion/11collins.html?ex=1378872000&en=e4cda573c0ae30dd&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
--
Kevin B
I'm saying it now: President Barack H. Obama, Jr., 2009 - 2017
September 11, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love this quote:
"McCain, by the way, is the Republican nominee for president. You may remember him from the Sarah Palin convention in Minneapolis, where he gave a speech and was congratulated by Sarah Palin."
Great atricle - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/opinion/11collins.html?ex=1378872000&en=e4cda573c0ae30dd&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
--
Kevin B
I'm saying it now: President Barack H. Obama, Jr., 2009 - 2017
September 11, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
And when you hit the "enter" button two times, you feel twice as good.
September 11, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pro-Obama Nate silver's model at fivethirtyeight.com now has McCain with a 52% chance of winning in November based on a combo of polls and demographics.
Intrade and Rasmussen Markets both have McCain ahead now after months of being behind.
According to Gallup, McCain has a stable lead right now and has led in the tracker evry individual night for about a week.
Every southern state including FL and VA is now a waste of money for Obama.
Look for McCain polling gains tomorrow after 9/11 commemoration reinforces Barack's weakness in foreign policy/defense matters.
September 11, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wrong Again Ape, so kindly
Shut
The
Fuck
Up
September 11, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
After listening to Obama's speech yesterday, I was wondering why he hasn't been giving speeches at large rallies lately. After all, haven't McCain/Palin been making speeches (although short and repetitive) these days? Obama should still do town halls and other things but he sure should hold huge rallies at least twice a week from now on to show some of his best skills (it seems to me he argues his case best in his speeches), keep the crowds energized, show how much support there is for him --- important not just for independents but also his supporters, and grab media attention. This will also be a good way to re-direct media attention to issues or anything that he wants the media and the nation to focus on.
I think that Obama has been conceding too much to GOP and the McCain camp's narrative. They ridiculed Obama as a celebrity. So Obama has stopped holding rallies. Well, McCain has unleashed a real celebrity and is giving short speeches in front of adoring crowds. Team Obama should have argued long time ago that a political celebrity who can inspire and a fine president are not mutually exclusive and cite JFK and perhaps even Bill Clinton (Bill will love it) as examples.
September 11, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
After listening to Obama's speech yesterday, I was wondering why he hasn't been giving speeches at large rallies lately. After all, haven't McCain/Palin been making speeches (although short and repetitive) these days? Obama should still do town halls and other things but he sure should hold huge rallies at least twice a week from now on to show some of his best skills (it seems to me he argues his case best in his speeches), keep the crowds energized, show how much support there is for him --- important not just for independents but also his supporters, and grab media attention. This will also be a good way to re-direct media attention to issues or anything that he wants the media and the nation to focus on.
I think that Obama has been conceding too much to GOP and the McCain camp's narrative. They ridiculed Obama as a celebrity. So Obama has stopped holding rallies. Well, McCain has unleashed a real celebrity and is giving short speeches in front of adoring crowds. Team Obama should have argued long time ago that a political celebrity who can inspire and a fine president are not mutually exclusive and cite JFK and perhaps even Bill Clinton (Bill will love it) as examples.
September 11, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have you heard that McCain is "clinging to a shrinking lead" nationally according to Gallup?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110227/Gallup-Daily-McCain-48-Obama-44.aspx
McCain 48, Obama 44, Obama has gained 1 point since yesterday, while McCain holds steady. The convention bounce continues to shrink.
September 11, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, unfortunately, my home state of NC is lost.
Daily Kos has a third poll, and it looks to be the same as PPP's troubling one earlier:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/11/14030/7529/890/595082
Well, sorry to say, our R2K poll came out looking more like SUSA:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/28-30 results)
Dole (R) 48 (50)
Hagan (D) 42 (42)
There had been a rash of polls, following Hagan's first ad blitz showing the Democrat reaching parity or taking the lead. But Dole has been fighting back, and seems to have retaken the narrow lead.
In the governor's race;
Perdue (D) 42
McCrory (R) 47
This looks like the recent SUSA numbers, which had the race 49-41 in favor of the Republican, as opposed to local pollster PPP, which has it 41 Purdue, 40 McCrory.
Now on the presidential side of things, R2K gives us this:
McCain (R) 55 (47)
Obama (D) 38 (43)
SUSA had it 58-38, so R2K seems to validate the SUSA results.
September 11, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink