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Poll: McCain Vaults To 20-Point Lead In North Carolina

A new SurveyUSA poll suggests that Barack Obama's efforts to win this historically-red state might be hitting some bumps -- John McCain is now up 20 points.

The numbers: McCain 58%, Obama 38%. A month ago, McCain had a much slimmer lead of 49%-45%

On the one hand, this poll could just be an outlier, as other recent polls have shown the race to be closer. But on the other hand, this suggests the possibility that McCain's post-convention bounce could most clearly manifest itself by putting some of the red states where Obama had hoped to compete out of reach -- for the time being, at least.


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HAHA! Oh, Eric...

Here's one for Eric:

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/

Presidential Race Remains Close, 45% McCain-Palin - 44% Obama-Biden Enthusiasm Gap Remains Between Supporters of the Two Candidates

Enthusiasm Gap Remains. The poll finds that an "enthusiasm gap" remains between supporters of the two candidates, with 55% of McCain-Palin voters and 64% of Obama-Biden voters saying they are "enthusiastically supporting" their candidate.

As a result, among all voters who enthusiastically support their candidates, the Obama-Biden ticket holds a slight 53%-47% edge over the McCain-Palin ticket that is currently within the margin of error. (n=482 registered voters, margin of error +/-4.5%)

Here's one for Eric:

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/

Presidential Race Remains Close, 45% McCain-Palin - 44% Obama-Biden Enthusiasm Gap Remains Between Supporters of the Two Candidates

Enthusiasm Gap Remains. The poll finds that an "enthusiasm gap" remains between supporters of the two candidates, with 55% of McCain-Palin voters and 64% of Obama-Biden voters saying they are "enthusiastically supporting" their candidate.

As a result, among all voters who enthusiastically support their candidates, the Obama-Biden ticket holds a slight 53%-47% edge over the McCain-Palin ticket that is currently within the margin of error. (n=482 registered voters, margin of error +/-4.5%)

How does this make sense? Were evangelicals simply not responding to polls and now that they have found salvation through Sarah they are off the pine? Really? Did things change that much.

I think Palin made them feel like they could be proud of being Republicans again.

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I live in NC and spent the day registering voters for Obama around Charlotte. Since January, Democrats have added 180,000 new voters(110,000 of which are black) compared with 20,000 Republicans. Independents have increase by 120,000.

The Republicans are dying off in NC. Obama might not win but I can guarantee you that he won't lose by double digits. It will probably be by 2-4 points.

I'd like to see the internals of this poll. I bet it has McCain getting 35% of the black vote.

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I looked at the internals and the black vote numbers look OK, 86-9. Last month, it was 91-9, which is probably closer to reality.

He's getting smashed among white voters, 70-26. Last month it was 60-33.

The big difference? As is often the case in SUSA polls, it's party ID. In August, the split was 33R/46D/18R. This month it's 41R/40D/16I.

In August, Obama was winning the Reasearch Triangle region by 7. Now, he's trailing by 11. That just doesn't sound right - it's a region in which he should at least be polling even with McCain, if not better.

Obama was leading among women in August, 48-46. Now he's down by 12, 54-42. And he's getting smashed among men, much worse than he was in August.

Outlier? Perhaps. Or maybe the god squad really was planning on staying home this November pre-Palin.

I know there is some debate about whether or not Obama and Biden should go after Palin. But as I look at these numbers coming out, it's almost as if the only reason McCain is pulling ahead both nationally and in swing states is because of Palin. Before the pick, he really didn't stand a chance. If he picked Romney or Pawlenty, he'd probably be in the same position as he was pre-convention. Palin is winning this thing for him. Maybe the luster will fade, maybe she'll implode. But while McCain made a terrible governing pick, he appears to have made a fantastic political pick. She's the only thing keeping him afloat at this point.

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I live in NC and spent the day registering voters for Obama around Charlotte. Since January, Democrats have added 180,000 new voters(110,000 of which are black) compared with 20,000 Republicans. Independents have increase by 120,000.

The Republicans are dying off in NC. Obama might not win but I can guarantee you that he won't lose by double digits. It will probably be by 2-4 points.

I'd like to see the internals of this poll. I bet it has McCain getting 35% of the black vote.

AHHHHH the sky is falling!!

The Chicken Little act is ridiculous. These polls are completely out of whack. A weekend poll is bad enough. A weekend poll after a convention is worthless.

If Jake Delhomme had been an option in the North Carolina vote he would have notched at least 30 percent.

Pufferfish

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Your poll tracker makes it look like this is a national poll showing McCain up by 20 points....

I miss your sweet baby pic. :(

What happened to the avatars?

McCain promises "other wars". Be afraid, spread the word:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdJUCU1UH2w

OMG! OMG! OMG! OMG!

(just kidding)

I hear Rasmussen has a bad Obama poll too in Montana.

Colorado and Nevada hold the keys to the White House.

It's been said that the Rasmussen website, which has at least one ad running for John McCain, 24/7 is gratis of the owner, Scott Rasmussen. He is an evangelical Christian who got his start polling for Bush 43.

From Wiki:

Rasmussen's polls are notable for their use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries.[8] These types of polls have been shown to produce accurate results at low cost, although some traditional pollsters are skeptical of this methodology and prefer traditional, operator-assisted polling techniques

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

Yes, I about bit off my tongue when I saw that. Please get that fixed before we lose ground troops to massive strokes.

Wow! These polls are just on fire heading towards a McCain/Palin victory! SOOO exciting!

Regular / normal white women are making the difference (not the Birkenstock wearing sans leg shaving uber-liberal types, but they were never in play anyway) and I see a landslide once this is election is over.

All American Sarah is the perfect compliment to John the country loving war hero.

:)

You moron.

By all american sarah do you mean not knowing the difference between Fannie May chocolates and Fannie Mae loans? Do you mean ready to be president if needed but not able to handle press conferences or interviews? The list could go on...

Are you really voting based on those reasons? I pray that you actually study this out and make an educated decision, not just who they say they are. Turn off hannity, turn off the rush, turn off even this site. Study it out for yourself on the facts. This is not a popularity contest. This is important.

Start here:
http://opedna.com/2008/09/08/wasilla-police-billed-sexual-assault-victims-for-rape-kits/

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Lori,

you're obviously one of the people that gave us 8 years of Bush/Cheney and all the destruction they caused, and now you want to give us McCain/Palin.

Why do you hate America?

And you are free to cram the word "normal" straight up your ignorant pink poopchute.

I see a landslide once this is election is over.

You do realize that if the landslide happens when the election is OVER, it won't really matter, right?

That sort of logic might explain your support of McTemper and Caribou Barbie.

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That sociopathic smiley is familiar. Are you Universal?

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As a recent Hillary convert to Obama, I see this as a positive development.
If this poll is accurate, and McCain has gained 9 points in a consistently red state like North Carolina it could mean that McCain's smaller national gain has come almost entirely from states that will vote republican any way. What does any one care if McCain wins Texas with 57% or 65%. He's going to win Texas and get the same number of electors either way.
The people who are going to decide who wins Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia are not the people who are all excited about Sarah Palin ability to deliver a snide comment.

That's how I read it too.

I agree with your point.

When Palin was picked the really positive reaction to her was from GOP leaning voters. The GOP convention and the Palin pick helped rally the GOP base.

The aftereffect is McCain makes gains from previously dispirited or undecided GOP leaners. I think we are seeing this in the new polls from deep red states like Montana (McCain ahead 53% - 42%) and North Carolina. These were states Obama was hoping to contest but were always a bit of a long shot.

McCain seems to be leading by massive margins in red states but nationally is only roughly tied with Obama. This would likely mean Obama is hoding his own in purple states like FL, OH, WI, etc.

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I agree -- if McCain's bounce manifests mainly in Southern states, that's good news.

The GOP has become a regional party.

The GOP has become a regional party.

and a RELIGOUS party. Dobson and company are officially in charge with their hand-picked candidate now on the ticket. I'm afraid Senator Maverick sold the libertarian wing of the party right down the river.

Very good point.

Also, the poll was taken almost immediately after the convention during the euphoria of the Palin speech (pardon me while I go up-chuck -- it was so nasty mean-spirited I could barely watch it). So folks were responding to their 'impression' of her ..... not necessarily the person who is going to get revealed in coming weeks. It's too much, too soon. (And I have heard, as someone suggested, that the conservative base had been so discouraged they weren't answering the phone or agreeing to participate in polls but suddenly were over-eager to say their piece.)

This is the clearest example of the giddy bubble of delight and relief that you could sense in the convention after her speech ...... but bubbles burst. (Heck, even Pat Buchanan is starting to mumble about how long this upsurge will last, how well she will "wear"). Too much, too soon. For some reason it's not discouraging me...

Yowza! It's tempting to dismiss polls you don't like as being flawed, but SUSA has been good this cycle and Obama's camp needs to take notice. I'm not sure if it means writing off NC or what, but this indicates . . . something.

Yet I still can't help but feeling - WTF. I understand the guy getting a bump, but a 16 point swing in a month? I'd like to see the cross tabs.

It was based on 617 voters. It's an outlier.

671

exactly. Margin of error almost four percentage points. IN other words, not a reliable poll. He is probably doing better in NC than before the convention, but this result is wacky....

What does it mean? Team Obama needs to work hard to get this thing done. Losing the message battle right now and losing the initiative. Get back in the game!!!

"On the one hand, this poll could just be an outlier, as other recent polls have shown the race to be closer. But on the other hand, this suggests the possibility that McCain's post-convention bounce could most clearly manifest itself by putting some of the red states where Obama had hoped to compete out of reach -- for the time being, at least."

Thanks for the astute analysis.


Public Policy Polling is going into the field tonight polling NC. Director told me the SurveyUSA poll is "unbelievable."

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SUSA's last poll in the state - on 8/12 - showed McCain with a four pt lead, 49-45. All of the polls of this state, including one that came out just as the GOP convention started, showed McCain leads of between 2-5%...all of them. Now, because of the GOP convention and Palin he jumps out to a 20pt lead. Something is wrong here. I never thought Obama was going to win this state anyway but I thought he'd keep it close, perhaps very close. 20pts? Has to be something wrong.

Stupid strikes again!

Honestly, I never thought North Carolina was extremely in play for Obama. Potentially, but I didn't hold my breath too much about it. Though 20 points seems way off. I'm gonna have to wait and see if other polls show similar numbers before I trust this one. It's an outlier until there's more evidence to back it up.

Eric is steering up controversy!!!!OMG !! Holy Cow! McCain ahead by 40 points ....OMG!!! What Are we going to do now?

McCain is ahead by 30 points!!! OMG. Obama is loosing big! OMG! Should i cry? OMG!

Much ado about nothing. Please tell me when a credible news organization post their polling number.

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Gotta say, buddy, but SurveyUSA is one of the most reliable pollsters out there. Just look at Nate Silver's tally:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

This poll is not reliable, period. Their methodology doesn't make any sense whatsoever

The red states have been, will be, and will always be, red. They could run Jesus as the (D) candy, and McCane still wins Mississippi and Oklahoma by 35% each.

Absolutely no sense even spending a dime in these states. The key to the WH is PA, OH, CO, and MN. Even FL is lost at this point.

Actually, FL is probably a more likely win for Obama than OH at this point.

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Are there any other ineffable questions you would like to resolve for us? Amelia Earhart's final resting place? The location of the Inca gold? What really happened in that hotel room in Eagle, CO?

671 hardly seems like a significant sample size.

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That's about the typical sample size of Survey USA polls, and before everyone starts trashing Survey USA, they are a pretty reputable polling firm.


That said, these results don't mean the sky is falling, although they have brought out an unusual number of obnoxious McCain supporters today.


To be fair, I think all of their polls in NC have involved that number of respondents (likely voters culled from the registered voters). This poll may very well be accurate and the trend is not good for Obama. Between now and the next poll there will be at least one event that will have an impact on the race--the first debate.

My guess is this has everything to do with Palin sucking the oxygen out of the race--which demonstrates her worth to McCain. Until Obama/Biden can get themselves back into the picture or the press can become more critical of Palin, I don't think this will change. Frankly, the next game changer will probably be the first debate.

In any event, this was never going to be easy and if anything it underscores just how much we are all going to have to buckle down and push through the last two months. Donate, volunteer or do whatever you can to make sure the Obama campaign has the resources they need to win on Nov. 4th. Less than two months. Let's not get tired or lose focus. We can't afford another 4 years of this bullshit.

It has been argued that the McCain backers were afraid to admit it, but now they have Palin, they are gleeful to say so. This poll is hopefully an outlier, but it also shows that Obama has been sitting back while the Republicans have thoroughly defined him as an inexperienced, do nothing, accomplished nothing, tax and spend liberal. Reacting to the attacks rather than guiding the discussion is a recipe for four more years of Bush.

I live in a battleground State, and have yet to see any real pushback on the claim that Obama will raise everyone's taxes, included for retired people.

In two or three more weeks, the polls may actually show some value. But if Obama keeps up what he is doing, he will be remembered as someone who blew the impossible.

I cannot believe the Obama people are that stupid, but perhaps they are using the John Kerry playbook.

How can the Obama people be so timid in pushing back against McCain claiming they are the real change people?

Yes, the Democrats have a real good get out the vote process. But the Republicans have a superb suppress the vote apparatus.

Eric sure loves to stuff ten pounds of crap in 5 pound bags

It has been argued that the McCain backers were afraid to admit it, but now they have Palin, they are gleeful to say so. This poll is hopefully an outlier, but it also shows that Obama has been sitting back while the Republicans have thoroughly defined him as an inexperienced, do nothing, accomplished nothing, tax and spend liberal. Reacting to the attacks rather than guiding the discussion is a recipe for four more years of Bush.

I live in a battleground State, and have yet to see any real pushback on the claim that Obama will raise everyone's taxes, included for retired people.

In two or three more weeks, the polls may actually show some value. But if Obama keeps up what he is doing, he will be remembered as someone who blew the impossible.

I cannot believe the Obama people are that stupid, but perhaps they are using the John Kerry playbook.

How can the Obama people be so timid in pushing back against McCain claiming they are the real change people?

Yes, the Democrats have a real good get out the vote process. But the Republicans have a superb suppress the vote apparatus.

The move by Obama to want to shut down any 527 supporting groups may be the stupidest idea among many bad ideas. It is too late now to change his mind.


Eric,

Pres '08
Sep 9 SurveyUSA McCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 38%

This should read
NC-Pres '08
Sep 9 SurveyUSA McCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 38%

It has been argued that the McCain backers were afraid to admit it, but now they have Palin, they are gleeful to say so. This poll is hopefully an outlier, but it also shows that Obama has been sitting back while the Republicans have thoroughly defined him as an inexperienced, do nothing, accomplished nothing, tax and spend liberal. Reacting to the attacks rather than guiding the discussion is a recipe for four more years of Bush.

I live in a battleground State, and have yet to see any real pushback on the claim that Obama will raise everyone's taxes, included for retired people.

In two or three more weeks, the polls may actually show some value. But if Obama keeps up what he is doing, he will be remembered as someone who blew the impossible.

I cannot believe the Obama people are that stupid, but perhaps they are using the John Kerry playbook.

How can the Obama people be so timid in pushing back against McCain claiming they are the real change people?

Yes, the Democrats have a real good get out the vote process. But the Republicans have a superb suppress the vote apparatus.

The move by Obama to want to shut down any 527 supporting groups may be the stupidest idea among many bad ideas. It is too late now to change his mind.

It has been argued that the McCain backers were afraid to admit it, but now they have Palin, they are gleeful to say so. This poll is hopefully an outlier, but it also shows that Obama has been sitting back while the Republicans have thoroughly defined him as an inexperienced, do nothing, accomplished nothing, tax and spend liberal. Reacting to the attacks rather than guiding the discussion is a recipe for four more years of Bush.

I live in a battleground State, and have yet to see any real pushback on the claim that Obama will raise everyone's taxes, included for retired people.

In two or three more weeks, the polls may actually show some value. But if Obama keeps up what he is doing, he will be remembered as someone who blew the impossible.

I cannot believe the Obama people are that stupid, but perhaps they are using the John Kerry playbook.

How can the Obama people be so timid in pushing back against McCain claiming they are the real change people?

Yes, the Democrats have a real good get out the vote process. But the Republicans have a superb suppress the vote apparatus.

The move by Obama to want to shut down any 527 supporting groups may be the stupidest idea among many bad ideas. It is too late now to change his mind.

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"It is too late now to change his mind".

You mean at 5:00 PM EST on September 9? 'Cause he already changed his mind about the 527s...

And just out of curiosity, why did you ever think that the first African American candidate, running against the most popular Republican in the country, was going to have a cakewalk to the White House?

Poll probably doesn't mean anything.

But if we had an intelligent poplulace, informed by an actual media with reporters and not news marketers, this wouldn't be close.


It is frightening how stupid Americans are.

Let's face it. We live in a stupid, selfish, redneck country.

That is why far superior candidates - Gore, Kerry -- lost to someone as laughable as Bush. Hopefully, Obama and Palin will not be added to this familiar story.

Americans want their leaders to be as stupid as they are.

wtf...how is that possible?

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I cannot understand these large swings in the polls. They started with Palin's pick by McCain, she can't have caused that much of a swing.

Something smells fishy.

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I'd like to see the sample. I have no idea who reads USA Today.

I think there are many more states in play than we think and there could be some surprises in Obamas favor this polls are not going to decide this election, WE ARE. Don't unerestimate the door to door, neighbor to neighbor campain out there. I was focusing on young people and my 60 year old friend just told me he got registered yesterday by a woman in front of the grocery store. Don't be shy, ask people if they have registered! www.voteforchange.com, www.rockthevote.com, and www.declareyourself.com are all places supporting registration.

We can win this!!! Stay focused, take action, on the goal and let the waves roll off your back!

Inspite of Obama's 58 state strategy, North Carolina doesn't mean anything. It is unfortunate that the 100% black vote for Obama in the most populous black voter southern states that won him the nomination will mean nothing in the general election.

Eric, why don't you join Fox news, you will fit very well over there.

I don't believe this either. I know a number of people in North Carolina who used to live in the Northeast. None are voting for McCain.

However, I agree with the poster from Pennsylvania who said that he lives in a battleground state and hasn't seen many Obama ads. I am temporarily in Florida and have seen 10x as many McCain ads (usually the same one) as Obama ads. What gives? When is Obama going to start unleashing his ad dollars in the right places?

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I'd like to see the sample. I have no idea who reads USA Today.

How many AA voters were included?

Where do you come from? USA Today is the largest circulation daily in America.

Dear Mr. Kleefeld:

There doesn't appear to be much profit in attempting to interpret these polls, except for those who like to keep their arms loose by hurling tomatoes at you every time you comment.

Your call.

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I still say North Carolina is still in play. I would have to see other polls.

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I want to see this in a poll:
- was the earth created in 6 literal days?
- was Eve literally created from Adam's rib?
- is Fox News your main information source?

I swear, this nation is populated by fools who will vote IN A SECOND, against their economic well-being. Just throw 'em a little misogynist, racist, fundi-Christian red meat, and they eat it up, like ants on Terro.

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If the polls are in your favor, trumpet them
If the polls are not in your favor, ignore..
If the poll is up your...


Eric, why don't you join Fox news, you will fit very well over there.

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Goddamn.

You know, it's about halfway tempting to wish to see Obama just come out and say, "ok, you dumb motherfuckers, you're so fucking intent on running the country into the goddamned ground, be my fuckin' guest. I'm out."

Then again, these polls merely reflect the unarguable mathematical truth that half of all people are of below average intelligence. Maybe the rest of us should just leave, and watch while the country devolves to the point that Idiocracy is a documentary.

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something tells me that something's wrong

sky falling? no
sense of urgency? yes

By the time the VP debate is over Palin needs to be seen as a huge lability for our country should McCain win the presidency. There is enough factual material out there on her; it needs to become the meme as Josh would say.

McCain = Bush is a good route to take; it needs to be pushed harder by everyone of Obama's surrogates.

Inspite of Obama's 58 state strategy, North Carolina doesn't mean anything. It is unfortunate that the 100% black vote for Obama in the most populous black voter southern states that won him the nomination will mean nothing in the general election.

Not only Eric, you should move to Fox news, but you don't even the capability to explain the polls, and even have the capacity to go beyond the numbers...

If you pretend to be such an expert, you should at least do some home work and check if these numbers make sense...

Inspite of Obama's 58 state strategy, North Carolina doesn't mean anything. It is unfortunate that the 100% black vote for Obama in the most populous black voter southern states that won him the nomination will mean nothing in the general election.

IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican campaign office (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas) and sign up to be a 'poll watcher'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what they mean is they have their ACORN nuts on hand (you know, those he 'organized' as a 'community organizer' lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn.

Having ALL of us as poll watcers will thwart their plans and guarantee us a true and legal election and McCain / Palin victory!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials.

NO CHICAGO STYLE ELECTIONS IN OUR COUNTRY! NO DEAD PEOPLE VOTING AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Lori :)

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Thank you, Mr. Villareal.

IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican campaign office (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas) and sign up to be a 'poll watcher'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what they mean is they have their ACORN nuts on hand (you know, those he 'organized' as a 'community organizer' lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn.

Having ALL of us as poll watcers will thwart their plans and guarantee us a true and legal election and McCain / Palin victory!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials.

NO CHICAGO STYLE ELECTIONS IN OUR COUNTRY! NO DEAD PEOPLE VOTING AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Lori :)

IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican campaign office (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas) and sign up to be a 'poll watcher'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what they mean is they have their ACORN nuts on hand (you know, those he 'organized' as a 'community organizer' lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn.

Having ALL of us as poll watcers will thwart their plans and guarantee us a true and legal election and McCain / Palin victory!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials.

NO CHICAGO STYLE ELECTIONS IN OUR COUNTRY! NO DEAD PEOPLE VOTING AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Lori :)

IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican campaign office (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas) and sign up to be a 'poll watcher'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what they mean is they have their ACORN nuts on hand (you know, those he 'organized' as a 'community organizer' lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn.

Having ALL of us as poll watcers will thwart their plans and guarantee us a true and legal election and McCain / Palin victory!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials.

NO CHICAGO STYLE ELECTIONS IN OUR COUNTRY! NO DEAD PEOPLE VOTING AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Lori :)

Poll watching works both ways, dontcha know...

Have a nice day!

Oh, come on. Eric is a bit poll-happy, but no reason to jump all over him.

It's a bad poll for Obama by a reputable firm that has a track record in the state. My god, Obama's going to lose North Carolina! We can't win without North Carolin! ...or not. McCain's entire bounce destroys Obama in North Carolina and other Southern states, along with the Plains States, probably. Boo hoo. Obama was going to lose those anyway in a close election.

The question is, when McCain's bounce recedes, will it recede only in these states, making them competitive for Obama again, or will he recede to a lesser in all states? If it's the latter, Obama takes--CO, NV, VA, FL, and OH!

The campaign should look at the polls at the beginning of next week, and if McCain is still strong in NC, redirect all efforts elsewhere.

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No it isn't about low information voters, and I could wring that son of a bitch's neck who wrote that fucking book. I'm sick of hearing about low information voters as if the entire fucking country is retarded.

No it isn't: Bush's approvals are evidence that retarded Americans are not in the majority. So was our big win in '06.

At any given time a certain small percentage of any population group is below average. But if the whole country was below average, I don't think we'd still be even in the shape we're in after these last disastrous 8 years.

Damn I'm sick of hearing about '04. Rove fucking stole that election in Ohio at approximately 9 PM CST. I saw it happen on TV.

How did I know that Eric was going to post this crap poll? Talk about outliers. I guess Eric has a thing for them.

IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican campaign office (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas) and sign up to be a 'poll watcher'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what they mean is they have their ACORN nuts on hand (you know, those he 'organized' as a 'community organizer' lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn.

Having ALL of us as poll watcers will thwart their plans and guarantee us a true and legal election and McCain / Palin victory!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials.

NO CHICAGO STYLE ELECTIONS IN OUR COUNTRY! NO DEAD PEOPLE VOTING AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Lori :)

Fuck off troll!

It's been said that the Rasmussen website, which has at least one ad running for John McCain, 24/7 is gratis of the owner, Scott Rasmussen. He is an evangelical Christian who got his start polling for Bush 43.

From Wiki:

Rasmussen's polls are notable for their use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries.[8] These types of polls have been shown to produce accurate results at low cost, although some traditional pollsters are skeptical of this methodology and prefer traditional, operator-assisted polling techniques

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

Tweety's Big Number Today: 7

The number of times Sarah Palin has said, "Thanks but no thanks..." regarding Nowhere's Bridge.

David Schuster is now revealing this lie, as well as her per diem excesses.

How did I know that Eric was going to post this crap poll? Talk about outliers. I guess Eric has a thing for them.

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Don't remember the front page headline showing Obama actually gaining in CO and FL since the Repub convention. Obama wins these two, and it's over for McInsane.
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/new-swing-state-numbers-and-what-we-can-see-in-them

IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican campaign office (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas) and sign up to be a 'poll watcher'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what they mean is they have their ACORN nuts on hand (you know, those he 'organized' as a 'community organizer' lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn.

Having ALL of us as poll watcers will thwart their plans and guarantee us a true and legal election and McCain / Palin victory!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials.

NO CHICAGO STYLE ELECTIONS IN OUR COUNTRY! NO DEAD PEOPLE VOTING AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Lori :)

IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican campaign office (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas) and sign up to be a 'poll watcher'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what they mean is they have their ACORN nuts on hand (you know, those he 'organized' as a 'community organizer' lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn.

Having ALL of us as poll watcers will thwart their plans and guarantee us a true and legal election and McCain / Palin victory!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials.

NO CHICAGO STYLE ELECTIONS IN OUR COUNTRY! NO DEAD PEOPLE VOTING AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Lori :)

IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican campaign office (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas) and sign up to be a 'poll watcher'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what they mean is they have their ACORN nuts on hand (you know, those he 'organized' as a 'community organizer' lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn.

Having ALL of us as poll watcers will thwart their plans and guarantee us a true and legal election and McCain / Palin victory!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials.

NO CHICAGO STYLE ELECTIONS IN OUR COUNTRY! NO DEAD PEOPLE VOTING AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Lori :)

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Look you lying little bitch - fuck right the fuck off and quit spamming the threads.

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Look you lying little bitch - fuck right the fuck off and quit spamming the threads.

Ooooh! Ouch!

Your Birkeys must be too tight!

Where did you come from all of a sudden?

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www.villarealsports.com

Where did you come from all of a sudden?

What's your problem? Are you one of those trolls who gets off on starting shit? If some right-winger challenges my right to vote I'm going to jail that day...

Where did you come from all of a sudden?

Oh, it shows up occasionally to share its ignorance and racism and then disappears back under the rock where it hides during the day.

What's your problem? Are you one of those trolls who gets off on starting shit? If some right-winger challenges my right to vote I'm going to jail that day...

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Riddle me this, dipshit: if it's Democrats who "steal" elections, how come it's Republican Secretaries of State who are ILLEGALLY purging voter rolls in Kansas, NM, MI, etc...and of course, the purges are targeted at minority voters?

In short, blow it out your dumb ass, troll.

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No, but your thong is wedged way too far up your ass and it's restricting your ability to think.

Seriously, it's time for the Obama campaign to run A SERIES OF ADS targeting the Palin problem.

One could be on the amounts of earmarks that she obtained when she was a mayor and governor, playing up how ridiculous they were/are by contrasting them to earmarks other places obtained, including Illinois and a city and a town.

Another could be on both McCain's and Palin's lies (about the earmarks for the bridge saga, about her responsibilities with the Alaskan national guard, about the jet that was sold for a loss and was never sold on eBay, etc. I am sure there are more.) and link them to Bush and Cheney's lies about the Iraq War so as to link these politicians together (something like "McCain and Palin, the next Bush and Cheney) and to play up the disastrous consequences of dishonest leadership.

A third could be on her criticizing Hillary Clinton for whining and yet trying to avoid talking to the press --- this hopefully will puncture her heroine, straight talker image among white woman voters as well as hurt her appeal among disgruntled Hillary supporters.

I don't know how much money the Obama campaign can afford to spend but they have to play smart --- run ads that will be instant hits so the networks can help play the ads over and over again.

This might have something to do with why the polls have all shifted in McCain's favor:

http://journalism.org/node/12693

Yep. Fucking media. How do we break through?

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IT's temporary - this polling was done before the Bridge to Nowhere was in the national press.

Give it time - she just accepted the nomination 6 days ago, for the love of heaven!

Inspite of Obama's 58 state strategy, North Carolina doesn't mean anything. It is unfortunate that the 100% black vote for Obama in the most populous black voter southern states that won him the nomination will mean nothing in the general election.

Inspite of Obama's 58 state strategy, North Carolina doesn't mean anything. It is unfortunate that the 100% black vote for Obama in the most populous black voter southern states that won him the nomination will mean nothing in the general election.

Maybe if you post that comment a third time, it will seem more intelligent.

PPP is going into the filed today to do a NC poll. Let's see what they find. They think the poll is very very off.

What happened to the comment system on this site?

Look -- it isn't great -- but it may not be such a good thing for a presidential campaign to be almost completely dependent on the vice-presidential candidate for its success.

Especially when the vice-presidential candidate is an inexperienced, dogmatic, socially conservative extremist, who is in the middle of 2 abuse of office investigations. One with a possibly traitorous husband (who, at the very least is a bit of a man/boy), a vulnerable, pregnant teen-age daughter who has an "iffy fiance," and who spins many untruths about her own past -- I mean, REALLY, Sarah -- when are you going to deal with the Ebay lie?

Add in that the VP candidate stole from her own government, demanding per diem for living in her own home because she didn't want to move her family to the state capital and because she carted her children around like little props for State events, that she seems to care more about oil companies and hunters than the extinction of polar bears and ANWAR -- and you see how easily McCain's poll numbers could go down as Palin's narrative starts to shift downward, as one of the investigations goes against her -- or after she makes a gaffe of serious consequence.

McCain will not only have a "bad VP" -- but he will have to answer for the bad judgment to nominate her in the FIRST place.

Live by the focus group/poll numbers -- die by the focus group/poll numbers!

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Co-sign your whole comment and may I say that it's one very well-thought out comment.

At the same time that red states Obama hoped to compete in have been taken off the table by Sarah the Hunter -- AK, MT, ND, NC, and GA -- suddenly Obama must deal with deep blue states lightening up -- WI, WA, and NJ -- and blue swing states poised to flip -- MI and PA.

Buh bye, Obama Bin Biden.

At the same time that red states Obama hoped to compete in have been taken off the table by Sarah the Hunter -- AK, MT, ND, NC, and GA -- suddenly Obama must deal with deep blue states lightening up -- WI, WA, and NJ -- and blue swing states poised to flip -- MI and PA.

Buh bye, Obama Bin Biden.

Yes, and I now understand what Chris Matthews meant when he had that 'thrill' running up his leg! I now have the same feeling as McCain / Palin bust out in the lead for the home stretch.

Delicious!!!! :)

Obama Bin Biden?

ranger11,

What do you expect? Trolls do those sort of thing.

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STFU, you damn dirty ape.

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Even if this poll is an outlier, I think we can make the following assumptions at this point.

States not in play for Obama:

MT, The Dakota, NC, GA

States possibly in play:

IN, NV, OH

States very much in play:

CO, VA, FL

States likely Obama:

IA, NM

States Obama CANNOT lose:

MI, PA

If he holds all the Kerry states and takes IA and NM as well, a CO victory will put him over the top. If he can't win CO, it's back to freaking Ohio and Florida yet again. (I personally think VA is going to slowly but surely slip away and into McCain's column)

The Surveyusa poll is a complete outlier and it over samples republicans

Look -- it isn't great -- but it may not be such a good thing for a presidential campaign to be almost completely dependent on the vice-presidential candidate for its success.

Especially when the vice-presidential candidate is an inexperienced, dogmatic, socially conservative extremist, who is in the middle of 2 abuse of office investigations. One with a possibly traitorous husband (who, at the very least is a bit of a man/boy), a vulnerable, pregnant teen-age daughter who has an "iffy fiance," and who spins many untruths about her own past -- I mean, REALLY, Sarah -- when are you going to deal with the Ebay lie?

Add in that the VP candidate stole from her own government, demanding per diem for living in her own home because she didn't want to move her family to the state capital and because she carted her children around like little props for State events, that she seems to care more about oil companies and hunters than the extinction of polar bears and ANWAR -- and you see how easily McCain's poll numbers could go down as Palin's narrative starts to shift downward, as one of the investigations goes against her -- or after she makes a gaffe of serious consequence.

McCain will not only have a "bad VP" -- but he will have to answer for the bad judgment to nominate her in the FIRST place.

Live by the focus group/poll numbers -- die by the focus group/poll numbers!

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IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican Loyalty Commission (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas where scary black people live) and sign up to be a 'poll thug'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what we'd rather be doing is restricting choice, questioning science and making fun of people who actually donate their time inservice of others (you know, because making fun of 'community organizers' is a winning strategy lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn by the former company Diebold and Republican Secretaries of State.

Having ALL of us as poll thugs will thwart their plans, turn away hundreds if not thousands of legitimate voters, frustrate many more while we tie up the system disputing nuns and black people and guarantee us a truly illegal election and McCain / Palin victory! Because it's only winning that matters! Screw Democracy and the right of every citizen to vote!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials. It mainly involves watching videos of the Brooks Brothers riot, and a special presentation by Kenneth Blackwell and Katherine Harris.

BRING BACK JIM CROW LAWS IN OUR COUNTRY! POLL TAXES ARE A GREAT IDEA AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER WHITE PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Troll :)

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IMPORTANT NOTICE!!!

A call to ALL McCain/Palin supporters. This is being posted on ALL blogs.

Call your nearest Republican Loyalty Commission (especially those in the swing states and/or in large urban areas where scary black people live) and sign up to be a 'poll thug'.

It is well known that the Obama campaign is hailing their 'ground game' as their 'ace in the hole' on Nov. 4th.

We need to be vigilant since what we'd rather be doing is restricting choice, questioning science and making fun of people who actually donate their time inservice of others (you know, because making fun of 'community organizers' is a winning strategy lol) which means there will be attempts at voter fraud at every turn by the former company Diebold and Republican Secretaries of State.

Having ALL of us as poll thugs will thwart their plans, turn away hundreds if not thousands of legitimate voters, frustrate many more while we tie up the system disputing nuns and black people and guarantee us a truly illegal election and McCain / Palin victory! Because it's only winning that matters! Screw Democracy and the right of every citizen to vote!

Please call ASAP, as many of us have, as there is a short course (30 minutes) required to become qualified and obtain your credentials. It mainly involves watching videos of the Brooks Brothers riot, and a special presentation by Kenneth Blackwell and Katherine Harris.

BRING BACK JIM CROW LAWS IN OUR COUNTRY! POLL TAXES ARE A GREAT IDEA AND ONLY 1 VOTE PER WHITE PERSON IN AMERICA!

Thanks, Troll :)

NC-Pres
Sep 9 SurveyUSAMcCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 38%

Oilbama bigtime appeal in Red States is the one of the biggest lies Oilbamabots tell. They said they were going to change the map and put Red states in play everytime Hillary slaughtered him in a state Democrats will have to win.

Oilbama voted for Dick Cheney's Energy Bill, that gave away Billions of dollars in tax breaks to Big Oil. That is the Change his Oilbamabots are always talking about. A Democrat acting as Dick Cheney's bitch. That is Change we can do without. Even McCain crossed party line to vote against it.

NC-Pres
Sep 9 SurveyUSAMcCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 38%

Oilbama bigtime appeal in Red States is the one of the biggest lies Oilbamabots tell. They said they were going to change the map and put Red states in play everytime Hillary slaughtered him in a state Democrats will have to win.

Oilbama voted for Dick Cheney's Energy Bill, that gave away Billions of dollars in tax breaks to Big Oil. That is the Change his Oilbamabots are always talking about. A Democrat acting as Dick Cheney's bitch. That is Change we can do without. Even McCain crossed party line to vote against it.

There would have been no need for a Surge if Bush & Co. had not taken the U.S. into a Phony & Pretend War on Terrorism while the Real War on Terrorism in Afghanistan where Bin Ladin lived, was ignored! And if we do not Wise up this might happen in the future!

http://www.youtube.com/v/PdJUCU1UH2w

Most people are missing the real story here. Most of McLame's national bounce has come from states Obama was unlikely to win anyway. There was essentially no bounce at all in the race that actually matters- the one for electoral votes. Furthermore, I think the McLame campaign is well aware of this- hence the increasingly desperate tone of their attacks.

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