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Poll: McCain Takes Narrow Lead In New Mexico

A new Rasmussen poll of New Mexico suggests that John McCain's national bounce has done him some good here -- for the first time, Rasmussen puts McCain ahead in this swing state.

The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama had a 48%-44% lead. In 2004, George W. Bush carried this state by a one-point margin.

The poll gives the two candidates very similar favorable/unfavorable ratings. Obama is at 55% favorable and 44% unfavorable, and McCain at 52%-45%, further evidence that this state will be hotly contested all the way to November.

Meanwhile, Dem Congressman Tom Udall has a 51%-44% lead over Republican Congressman Steve Pearce for the open GOP-held Senate seat, narrower than previous margins but still showing a solid advantage for the Dems.


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Did I just watch Joe Biden say on TV

Did I just watch Joe Biden say on TV THAT HE THINKS HILLARY WOULD HAVE BEEN A BETTER VP PICK???

either he's a moron or this is a meltdown

Are you mentally retarded, or a masochist, or what? Would you like to have your ass kicked? I can provide this service, free of charge.

Oh, but don't say that on Daily Kos or you'll be accused of having a meltdown yourself. Several diaries on the subject got shot down.

Maybe Joe was just being modest, but he really needs to cut out the modesty now. He needs to express confidence in himself and the ticket. He needs to go after McCain.

Are they censoring diaries? How very liberal. It's already up on politico and halperin anyway.

I just read a diary on it at Kos that wasn't deleted. It was panned, because the diary was trollish and written like shit, but it wasn't censored.

I just read a diary on it at Kos that wasn't deleted. It was panned, because the diary was trollish and written like shit, but it wasn't censored.

Actually, even though this is making headlines on CNN, the quote is taken out of context.

Biden was responding to a questioner who said something like - "I'm so glad you were chosen instead of Hillary".

Did we learn NOTHING with the lipstick story??

What's the big f'in deal? He was defending her. The quotes completely been taken out of context.

It's the kind of thing made me give up on politics. I thought it was Joe Biden's fine moment. Telling a Hillary hater to STFU. She's a friend of mine. And the press beats him up with it. I'm so sick of gotcha politics.

Yes, it's depressing.

But take heart, the news networks are planning a weekend-long Palin fest, complete with a Barbara Walters style prime time special on ABC.

Consider ABC an arm of the McCain campaign.

Also keep in mind that most of the polls are STILL including the weekend.

Only Fox's poll starts on Monday.

Tomorrow we'll start getting trackers without weekend polling.

I posted this in the previous thread: Rass had Obama at +4 so the swing is of 6 points.
Mason Dixon had McCain up by 4 at the same time 8/15-20 so those crying woe is us right now take a deep breath.

7 point spread in the Senate race? HA! This poll is an outlier, if for no other fact than that Senate race is a double digit lead for Udall. A composite of the most recent NM polls shows that Obama probably something like a 3 or 4 point lead.

These bounce numbers should not be blown out of proportion. The debates, for one thing, will render all these numbers irrelevant.

I doubt that. And New Mexico is a critical state for Obama. If he can hold New Mexico and Colorado, McCain will have a hard time making 270. If Obama loses CO and NM, though, the door is really open for McCain. Anybody know what's going on in NM?

Wow....tweety is completely unimpressed with McCain's tactics. He just gave an impassioned monologue that we are essentially bargaining away the future over lipstick. Lipstick.

The shine is coming of the McCain campaign.

Keep hitting them hard, and the wheels will soon follow.

This is utter bullshit.

Pax,
M.

Lalo-relax. O will win. he has the mccain camp EXACTLY where he wants them to be. Don't live in your head and allow that voice in your head to take seige. So, he said what he did. So? How is it a meltdown? I'll tell you who is melting down. The repubs are- know why? they are running scared because they know that Sarah Palin has something to hide and they want to bring O down beofre that happens. That is why they are allowing this STUPID non -issue to make the airwaves. people like you are buying it. so, think what u want. O will win in a landslide. Start to see how he will pull away in the polls in the next week or so. Mark my words. There is a strategy at play and it is working. You may not see it because you don't want to. but it is there.

I live in New Mexico, and I start my volunteer work tonight at "Obama Mamas". They actually have childcare!!!!

Good luck and thank you for doing your part.

Beware of putting too much faith in the poll du jour, especially when you see sudden, large shifts. Just like the SUSA NC poll that showed McSame with a 20 pt lead there, this needs to be taken with a VERY LARGE grain of salt.

Anyone else think Survey USA is a pile of crap?

so the crosstabs for the Rass poll are behind a firewall so we can only take Rass at his word about what really mattes inside the poll itself. someone said in the previous thread that it all came from latinos and indies and that sounds very off. Palin plays very badly with latinos. If anyone actually has or has seen the crosstabs it would be useful to know exactly what the details are.

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The New Republic… Mark Halperin… EJ Dionne… McClatchy Papers… Joe Klein… CBS… ABC's Jake Tapper… Andrew Sullivan… MSNBC… Paul Begala… AP... David Corn… Atlanta Journal Constitution… Glenn Grenwald… Taylor Marsh… Chicago Tribune… Slate… Politico’s Jonathan Martin… Ruth Marcus…The American Prospect… Ari Melber…


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Damned straight. It cannot be sustained.

These polls are nice, the bounce is nice, but McCain is at a full sprint right now. Can he keep this up? N-O. Polishing a turd can only get you so far. Facts and issues will come out and 95% of the american people will see this as a presidential race not a popularity contest.

McCain campaign is "running on empty." Obama is just starting to push. The water always gets drawn out before a tsunami.

Honestly though, what does McCain have to run on? He's got nothing other than troop surge and faux-change. Listen to Bob Woodward on 60 minutes and it will tell you all you need to know about McCain-Bush-surge.

We would be mistaken if we didn't think this was coming. McCain called on Palin for precisely this. She has nothing more to offer than this political stunt. She is MIA reciting a worn out speech and her bounce has happened. She and McCain are out. The only thing they have are pot shot ads twisting the truth. That will wear off and we will see what is happening.

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Yep.

I was saying during their convention that everyone needed to get out the shitcoats cause it was coming as soon as the convention was over - but I was stating the obvious.

They don't have anything else. Nothing. Zilch. Obviously.

"Facts and issues will come out and 95% of the american people will see this as a presidential race not a popularity contest." I truly want to believe this. But if it happens, it will be the first time in our history.

Eric's Daily "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" poll report.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...

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Don't know if this state will be hotly contested--someone posted an entry over at DKos that McCain has pulled resources out of NM, and of course we know the RNSC isn't investing there. I think internal polls show Obama ahead clearly in NM, although I never thought he was ahead by 15 points or whatever the margin was last week.

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I thought he might have been because he had just been here, and so had Clinton. I thought the extra 15 could be a bounce from that.

But whatever - I really really really and truly believe that polls are utter bullshit.

OK, can someone explain what the strategy is for Joe Biden to preface all his remarks at campaign appearances with anecdotes about what good friends he and his wife are with McCain? I am struggling to see if there is some rope-a-dope strategy or set up that I am not savvy enough to perceive???

I'm wanting that attack dog approach, but maybe they
have a clever plan? Thoughts?

I'm not stressing any Post-GOP polls until AFTER pitbull Palin faces the unvarnished press corps. Her ENTIRE narrative (except for Trig) is built on gross distortions and outright lies.

Troopergate... Bridge to Nowhere... More earmarks per capita than ANY OTHER STATE... eBay plane farce...

She can read a script... WHOOPDEE-EFFIN-DOO! Can I have some substance please? When she comes out of the cocoon and has to face REAL journalists asking real questions, then we'll see how long the Palin Fever lasts.

the poll was done in the middle of the mcbush bounce.

there is no way McBush wins rapidly trending blue New Mexico.

no F'in way

i even put my money on it on intrade

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