Southern Ohio is bascially an extension of West Viriginia. Obama, both Clintons, and Biden are going to have to work Ohio pretty hard along with the unions to pull out a victory here.

Ohio will be slow to catch up w/ the more current reporting from MSM that McConJOb is lying and Palin is a real threat...but I am more concerned about suppression tactics here in OHIO.

Margin of error is 4 points.

Just to clarify, I believe "Likely voters" are folks that voted in the last two Presidential elections. Is this right?

So folks that are under 25 cannot be counted as likely voters? And newly registered folks are not "Likely voters"?

The Michigan in me says, "typical Ohio dip-shites".

Sincerely,
2000 and 2004

To somewhat reply to observations that Palin is driving McCain's numbers here in Ohio, it does make sense,,,,,, SE Ohio is West Va, and SW Ohio is Mississippi and Kentucky,, and NW Ohio is small town midwest. She comes off as small town treller trash, with typical attitude, and that does resonate.

The truly scarey thing about a Palin Presidency is that given how Dubya has aged in eight years,,,, check out the pic on HuffPost right now, and add eight years,,,,,,, four or less the way I see it, to the pic of McCain right next to Dubya. Now that is truly a motivator for us to bust major butt for Barach,,,, and the Republic.

Can a motivated African American vote make a difference this time? Is it figured into the polls? Will it even happen?

The Obama camp has been dowplaying his chances in Ohio and Florida all along. They have been quoted talking about paths to the presidency that do not include Ohio/Florida and focus much more on Virginia and the western states. My guess is that sometime in '07 their polling suggested that the easiest path to victory for Obama involved the Kerry + Iowa + Virginia or Kerry + Iowa + Colorado/New Mexico.

Of course, Obama is still fighting like heck in Ohio and Florida and that is smart. The wider net seems much more logical than the Kerry's Gore + Ohio or Florida strategy.

This is an example of people aren't paying attention Even if elected McCain has a zero percent chance of getting his tax cut plan through a Democratic Congress.

Didn't we just see another poll on this same page that Ohio was basically tied? I've been concerned about the nature of Palin's appeal - emotional "like me" seems to make issues just disappear.

Greg, not to be too nit-picky, but Obama has a 4 pt lead in Va. and McCain has a 4 pt lead in Ohio. Why is your headline for Obama described as "takes a narrow" lead and for McCain it is "holds a lead". It's either Obama takes a 4 pt lead or McCain holds a narrow lead. Just sayin'

I guess rural folks are more interested in hunting a moose, than the US economy sinking to developing country status. Remember all those US jobs outsourced to China and India? Soon US citizens may be forced to emigrate en mass to developing countries to find jobs. Already there are a lot of US citizens working in record numbers here in Europe, a trend started 7 years ago...
Unfortunately for the USA, Moose hunters types will have difficulties finding a job overseas......

Give Ohio a week and I guarantee it will be a dead heat. Also, "likely voters" underrepresents younger voters and black voters, both huge groups for Obama.

4 points is very doable.

Be afraid McSame, be very afraid. The house of BS cards you built the past few weeks is falling apart.

"Asked which of the four candidates is 'most like you,' 31 percent said Palin, followed by Obama (22 percent), McCain (21 percent), and Biden (13 percent)."

Who the fuck wants a president who is "like you" or ANYBODY you know personally? I want an exceptional person in the Oval Office, not some wacko hockey mom from bumfuck Alaska who reminds me of the people elected to the council in my hometown. (Which has a population of about 11K so it's actually bigger than Wasilla - and I don't want those people managing anything!)

I want somebody "most like" me to be my neighbor and my friend, not my fucking president or vice-president.

Lord help me - and us - if we elect Loony Tunes and the Angry POW because of the "have a beer with" factor.

And why the hell isn't Obama's middle class tax message getting through to these people? He does talk about it, like, all the time.

Oh yeah, and: Your guy f*cked up. Get used to it.

Want to paint the White House Democrat? Then elect a gun-loving, ball-bearing women next time.

Since I am in the Dayton area where the economic issue should resonate well with those DHL, GM Truck plant and other displaced workers, I can state that the Palin phenomena is only part of the picture. Yes, they love her because they see her as down to earth and tough, not afraid to fight. The wimp factor has been hurting Obama big time. I get sick of what I hear from so many other Democrats. How many times do you need to be hit with a club before you recognize who has been hitting you?

The Republicans have constantly played the tough man/woman card while calling the Democrats weak. We constantly respond with "We will win by taking the high road and by not descending to the same nasty depths." We are constantly losing with that theme and quite frankly, why the hell should anyone trust us to handle national defense or any other tough issue when we let the Republicans Bitch Slap us.

No, go after McCain/Palin in Ohio as liars. Mock Palin for avoiding the press and having to be tutored as a little child. Mock her commander in chief experience. Put her and McCain down and down hard. At the same time play up the god damned connection between McCain's lobbyist advisers and the economic problems in Ohio.

Christ, you people are fools.

Boy, a lot of those Pollster.com and Intrade graphs along the right side of this page are depressing...