Poll: Just Before Speech, Large Majority Has No Opinion Of Palin
Here's some new polling from CBS News that drives home how high the stakes are for Sarah Palin's speech tonight:
Even after Sen. John McCain named her as his running mate on Friday, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin remained an unknown quantity to most Americans. Sixty-six percent had no opinion of her in a CBS News poll conducted over the weekend. In polling completed on Monday and Tuesday, sixty percent still had no opinion about her.But of those who did have opinions, 26 percent of the most recently polled were favorable, while only 13 percent were not favorable.
So she's still a blank slate for many, and she'll be painting in the picture tonight. There's been a fusillade of revelations about Palin, but they've come fast and furious and clearly haven't sunken in yet. Dems should probably brace themselves for glowing coverage of Palin's speech tonight, along the lines of, "she did precisely what she had to do!!!"
This will be partly the result of the ref-gaming the McCain campaign has been doing today, and partly due to the constant media temptation to write dramatic twists and turns into the overriding political narrative. Either way, our bet is that it will translate into good short-term numbers for her.
That's why media frenzy was unjustified.
September 3, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I prefer to think that their best case scenario is that people will indeed emerge tomorrow morning with a favorable opinion of Perky Bunny...
... BUT...
... if the Obama campaign is the sharp, alert, well-oiled machine I keep hearing it is...
... they won't stay on track with their "hands off Sarah!" tack.
Because if the American majority (God help us) wakes up lovin' Perky Bunny on Thursday morning, they'd damned well better make that stop, by any means necessary.
If they don't, quite simply, they'll be running against a candidate with low negatives. Now... for all we keep hearing about how damned smart they are... has that ever been considered anything but DUMB?
More like political suicide.
September 3, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I thought Obama coulds have been a bit more subtle with the hands off thing.
Vagueness might be a better way to go.
September 3, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I recall, all he said was that people's *children* are off-limits. He didn't say anything about not attacking a candidate's policies or record in office.
September 3, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Favorable polls, if I'm not mistaken, don't care if your likely to vote, let alone registered.
September 3, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The accolades will be fast and furious: she knocked it out of the park! She's a natural! All those scandals are irrelevant!
The Democrats had better be ready for this, and not underestimate the power of the media to make a completely fabricated narrative about the candidate.
September 3, 2008 8:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. But here in mid-sized midwest city, the women I've talked to who are not far rightwing conservatives are freaked out this creationist etc is going to be in the white house and/or insulted that McCain could get their vote just because they are women and she is a woman. What I have not found, someone who hasn't already formed an opinion about her; ultra-conservative for her, all others against.
September 3, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every person I've spoken to about Palin has just burst out laughing. And that's true for Clinton supporters, too.
But these are also people who follow politics pretty closely, too.
September 3, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but you were right, CT Voter, when you said that, as long as she doesn't drool or fall off the stage, the media whores will rhapsodize about how wonderful she is. She'll benefit from the same low expectations as you-know-who.
That said, I find it hard to believe that most people haven't formed at least some kind of opinion about her at this stage. Surely there's an equivalent of the "Bradley effect" in just about every polling situation.
September 3, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what would it mean to say she knocked it out of the park when she's reading a speech that she clearly didn't write? What about hearing her speak unscripted?
September 3, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you - I love that my faith in American women and their fucking common sense is not misplaced.
September 3, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
What scandals?
September 3, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Troopergate, firing the librarian, firing the police chief.
Or those don't count as scandals to you?
September 3, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotcha!
September 3, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
(Just sayin' your snark detector might need re-booting.)
September 3, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya think??
September 3, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT, I posted earlier on HuffPo (!!) that I was instituting a new drinking game, tonight:
Starting the moment Sarah stops speaking, you down a shot the moment you hear the first talking head say:
"She HIT IT OUT OF THE PARK!"
I accept in advance your sincere thanks for the nice buzz :-)
September 3, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank goodness I don't have a TV for every news station. I wouldn't be able to pick myself up off the floor if I had a shot for every "hit it out of the ballpark" or "she did what she needed to do."
September 3, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha! Yes. Both "out of the park" and "red meat" really deserve to be retired at the end of this week.
September 3, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think any of the great drinkers of our time could play this game.
From the past: John Huston, Richard Burton, none of them could have played this game.
September 3, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The coverage will be guaranteed pukeworthy. Home run? No way -- GRAND SLAM! Really, what big 'critical' speech has ANYONE of either party ever screwed up? Campaign speech that is; excepting Junior's SOTU bombolas. If America swallows this bullshit in the final analysis, we are more doomed that even I can imagine.
September 3, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about: "she didn't just knock it out of the park, she knocked it out of the state and all the way to the front door of the White House."
It will sound something like that.
September 3, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even so, what VP acceptance speech is credited with handing the white house to the ticket? It's not a problem, merely a challenge to Obama's team. So far their instincts have proven right and I'm sure they're ready with their book-banning, creation-in-the-school, etc commercial geared up and ready to go.
September 3, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
She scored a hat-trick by running the opening kick-off back for a grand slam, and she finished with a no-hitter and a triple-double.
September 3, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
she knocked the ball out of the park and hit the
front window of the White House. Result: 87 million cracks in the front window.
September 3, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're going to say "she hit it out of the park."
That's what they've been saying so far--and she hasn't even spoken yet.
This speech, so far, seems well-crafted. The permanent political establishment of the right wing is, after all, writing it for her and have spent the last few days prepping her for it. I mean, where has she been? No interviews with the press, no sightings last night at the convention. She's been in hiding, so to say, while she learns about where McCain stands (90 percent of the time with Bush)and to learn about foreign policy and domestic issues.
It's funny, last night the cons spent the evening talking about change--I'm guessing change from what--the Bush years which McCain supports. That's the double-talk express for you.
The elite of the right wing have been writing and testing the wording of this speech. They've been coaching her on it for at least two days now. It will go over well.
I just hope the media will contrast her words with her record. Fat chance, but I can dream.
September 3, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mitt Romney said that George Bush is a "librul"
September 3, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, she'll give a good speech. People will like her. Hell, I know that she's basically a classier version of GWB -- and I still like her.
But the debate about Palin is sucking up all the Republican oxygen, and keeping them on defense. People are talking about earmarks and troopers and teen mothers, not about Obama. And unless they make this election about Obama, they're gonna lose.
Bottom line: if we all do our jobs, we're going to win this.
September 3, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
You do?
I don't know what to say. I find her totally unlikable in about a million different ways. In fact, I cannot stand her.
September 3, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pity me. I have a Y chromosome that makes me think stupid things.
Don't worry -- I recognize her as a power-abusing right-wing nightmare on wheels. But there's something about her accent . . . and those glasses . . .
September 3, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
*heavy sigh*
And to think I actually refrained from accusing you of it in my comment.
;)
September 3, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Down, Boy!
September 3, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's a cure for that. Check out her fat thighs and muffin-top bulge. Then try to imagine it's not a photoshop job :-)
September 3, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, they're really throwing out the red meat. Much more divisive than the Dems. These folks just aren't very likeable.
September 3, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not watching it. I've got my fantasy football draft coming up in a short while, but I'm keeping my eyes on the comments....if anything particularly nauseating comes up, I hope people will mention it....
September 3, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm turning it off. I'm going to hope that someone here tells us what it's really like.
September 3, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, tell you what - if suddenly she looks good, it will definitely increase our turnout, which I already believe will be unbelievably high.
But she will definitely send women who might have skipped it because they were upset about Hillary running to the polls. And every one else who were getting lazy and losing interest.
We'll make sure of it.
September 3, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Attack Democratic War Room in St. Paul! Attack tonight furiously!! Get Hillary! Don't let a minute go by that doesn't attack this crazy lady! What kind of small-town mayor asks for resignation letters from her inner circle just to see if they'd resign for her in her honor? A schizophrenic mayor, that's who!
Attack! Oh please, for the love of God win this newscycle!!!
September 3, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watching Romney I don't know if they have to. This is Bush Bush Bush with blood thirsty minions. And oh yeah attack Michelle Obama. That'll get you votes from the independents.
September 3, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but he's a real douche. You watching HUCKABEE?! That guy knows how to attack! That Biden line was gold (for the bad guys). We need good lines like that every day!
September 3, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee is funny. He's a nut, but he's funny.
September 3, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's going to come off pretty damn well tonight. Then we're going to wake up tomorrow and Sarah Palin is still going to be the veep nominee, and that's not good for her party or the country. There's plenty of time for her to have a gaffe that confirms what most suspect.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
September 3, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The gaffe is to be expected, but is the belief. She is a extreme rightwing nut on the ticket. So far the polls show, for every one he gets, Obama get 1 maybe 2 independents/moderates who are scared shitless of this woman. Since Obama was ahead at the start of this, it doesn't matter how well received she is. Hell, Obama gives a good speech right.
September 3, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excerpts from her speech also suggest a defensive tone that I think is a huge mistake.
McCain and Palin are making themselves look more and more like Bush. From the cheap Rovian campaign McCain ran in August, to his cynical choice of a running mate -- to now, stonewalling investigations, blaming their problems on a media conspiracy, and trying to "punish" outlets that don't tow the line . . .
They're a) antagonizing the media, and
b) smashing the last remnants of McCain's "maverick" brand by embracing a shrill partisan tone.
What in the name of god was he thinking?
September 3, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, a shrill and mean tone will ruin the first impression.
McBush's overly aggressive tendencies end up shooting them in the foot every time.
September 3, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Romney speech was godawful wow. He is railing against eastern liberal elites yet he span Adam freaking Smith into his crap fest rant? Wow that was just ffing awful.
September 3, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
On the bright side, he was a lovely shade of orange.
September 3, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO!
That shade should be called Mormon Orange from now on.
September 3, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is one reason why she was chosen, nobody knows anything about her, so they can create her image. Of course they didn't expect the media wave of negativity, they expected they'd control the roll out from Friday until the end of the convention.
Obama/Biden need to get in on trying to define her - they've virtually done nothing yet in this regard. Maybe they want to let her define herself first and then compare her statements against her record.
September 3, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't quite agree. Right now the risk way outweighs the gain. The media has been quite active in defining Palin, and it will remain active, because the audience is fascinated: even people who don't care about politics are interested in babies. My mother-in-law and aunts are hypnotized by this whole spectacle.
As long as we stay away from Palin, the backlash will go against the refs. If we look like we're in on the frenzy, we'll get our shoes dirty.
September 3, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think they could be coming off as a bit over the top mean? I have no objectivity about it at all but they seem like a bunch of scary sickos to me.
September 3, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh My God!!
All this hard work of the last few days was for nothing?????
No wonder Josh Marshall went from giddy to sad on his front page.
September 3, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are you talking about? There's nothing sad on the front page.
September 3, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lalo doesn't get that when Josh Marshall says "How sad", it's not "how sad for Obama" but rather "how sad" that John McCain has truly sunk this low, and how sad that Charlie Gibson lets him off the hook.
September 3, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
O god have I overestimated Lalo.
September 3, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lalo gets it. He just thinks it's funny to pretend not to get it. I haven't quite figured out this sense of humor, but it seems to be a necessary ingredient of the conversation around here.
September 3, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I get. But I dislike Josh Marshall almost as much as I dislike John McCain now.
September 3, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dislike is not a term I would use. But I would say shock, continual new shock at the cluelessness. This one was particularly rich:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/212890.php
He says there Let's be clear about what's happening here. Overwhelmingly, reporters are pressing eminently reasonable questions...
Amazingly, yes, shockingly, it seems he has not even glanced at his own Reader Blogs the last week, much less has any idea of what has been going on at a place like Daily Kos. Perhaps he thinks the increase in traffic is all people raising "eminently reasonable questions"? It's a dismissal of the blogosphere, as if it doesn't exist and doesn't spread memes, that all that has been happening is "reporters pressing reasonable questions. Unless he's thinking conspiracy theory, that those thousands and thousands across the internet in the last week are all the work of devoted McCain operatives?
September 4, 2008 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
As long as the election isn't moved to tomorrow, we will be fine. 60 more days of Palin-tainment....I'm sorry, it's just not a serious pick.
September 3, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if it was tomorrow - we're still OK - are you kidding? One speech - you think one speech from her is going to make a majority of Americans want to vote McCain-Palin?
September 3, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not gonna lie... that accent is going to make it tough for her. Its really hard to listen to. But yea, its going to be gushing SHE HIT IT OUT OF THE PARK OMG OMG. We just gotta be ready for it.
September 3, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "Yup, yup" part is grating.
All I keep thinking of is that show Northern Exposure. Except with all the fringe rightwing ideology.
September 3, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, you be the mayor of Sicily, Alaska, and in two short years, you too, can be a VP Nominee.
September 3, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
OH MY FUCKING GOD!
From front front page: http://www.washingtonindependent.com/4328/more-on-palins-true-stand-on-earmarks
LOL!
September 3, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess the fact that she didn't dot her exclamation points with hearts is a point in her favor (sorry).
September 3, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know. Great stuff. It just keeps getting better. The new e-mails that WaPo has are pretty incriminating, too. It's extremely clear that she was in fact pressuring Monegan to fire Wooten. So she's on the record in a big public lie. A straight-up L. I. E. lie.
This is the gift that keeps on giving. People can love her, for all I care -- the more fascinating she is, the more she makes the conversation about earmark hypocrisy, and outlawing abortion even in cases of rape, and abuse of power. It's just not a winning conversation for John McCain to be having.
September 3, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I said earlier today:
She couldn't be better for us. She's a walking compendium of everything that is wrong with the Repugs.
She's a pinata for us.
She's just full of candy and toys and all kinds of good things.
September 3, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's response to Romney's attack on Michelle (pay attention to the last line)
September 3, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
DAAAAAAAAAMN!
September 3, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jonze - thank you for that.
Will you please relax now?
September 3, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
What this country needs is Jonze not-relaxed.
September 3, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not until November 5th...
September 3, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha ha
September 3, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok ok - I love his sources and links - so I read his comments, but he's always so nervous something.
I hoped his comment and the contents would make him feel better.
I'll just shut up about it.
LOL
September 3, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for directing my attention to the last line.
Okay, I suspected as much. Last Thursday was a deliberate pivot-point, and the Obama campaign is no longer on a vegetable diet.
If you flash a knife, they're going to shoot you.
September 3, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Think Chuck Todd will have the balls to join the chorus of "she hit it out of the park"? Heh heh heh.
September 3, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I expect to see him blush. He has a sense of shame.
September 3, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will re-capture the news cycle with the O'Reilly interview, an event few will miss.
September 3, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word. That will be an event indeed.
September 3, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee just found Obama's weak spot... he brought back something from Europe.... European ideas!!! Whew, I thought it was the clap for a second.
damn, Huck just admitted the only soap in his house was "Lava"... way too much information from a nightmare in deliverance land.
September 3, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
I turned it off just as Huck came out and the crowd stood up and I honestly think there are a lot of disappointed people there who would rather have had him - he's very likable. He's disarmingly candid - he might have been a problem, or more of one, anyway. His views are still wacky - and he's still a Repug.
September 3, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone want to speculate on who they run in 2012? I'm actually going to bet it's *not* Huckabee. I think the Republican elites are making mental notes right now, and the notes say
"Next time, we take the party back from the fundies. Even if it means breaking the party."
September 3, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The party is broken. They will spend the next 8 years at least regrouping.
September 3, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, it will be a sickening lovefest...we'll see if enough "issues" have come out for the media to keep doing their job. Also I can't wait for her first interviews/press conferences...wonder when those will happen?
September 3, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The presidency is not a symbolic job. - Huckabee
This after decrying the evils of racism. But maybe he was referring to VP picks.
September 3, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
So then why should we vote McCain who offers nothing other than "I was a POW".
September 3, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
In all fairness, McCain is an elder statesman with legislative experience. That's not the point. The point is, unless I misinterpreted Huckabee, is that he suggested Obama's rise to the presidency would have more to do with repentance of old national sins than merit. I hope I'm wrong in my interpretation.
September 3, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
How many republicans are wish-wish-wishing that Huckabee was their VP nominee right now? (Hint: anyone who's pretending to be all about "family values" Palin)
September 3, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jonze, where do you get those releases from?
September 3, 2008 9:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I usually stumble across them on other blogs.
September 3, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did Romney refer to pornography in the high schools? What is he talking about? Something other than sex education?
September 3, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would somebody get Huckleberry a copy of the Declaration of Independence puhleez? You don't buy freedom, it is our inalienable right bestowed upon us by our Creator, you stupid right wing nutcase. Just like a corporately owned tool to believe freedom can be purchased.
September 3, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does that not drive you nuts? I scream every time I hear one of them say that - they have no clue what this country is really founded on or what it's really about - what they were saying about being human in our founding documents.
The Right doesn't like human beings - we're sinful. We're secular humanists.
Damn right - God didn't paint the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel, a man did and it's the most transcendent thing I've ever experienced.
Democrats like people - we actually like the "great unwashed" whom the Repugs despise and pretend to like.
I'm so sick of them and I know I'm not alone - I'm legion.
September 3, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are legion.
September 3, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Noonan explains:
"In the truncated version of the conversation, on the Web, it appears I am saying the McCain campaign is over. I did not say it, and do not think it."
Er, try again.
September 3, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh now that is some serious boooool-sheet....
September 3, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was that on tv?
September 3, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
For once I have to say Huckabee underwhelmed...this is an odd night so far
September 3, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
He didn't want to show up Palin.
September 3, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee. Another speaker, another missed opportunity to say what the freaking hey is McCain going to do to help the working family.
September 3, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Devil in the details: "This poll was conducted among a random sample of 613 adults nationwide, including 540 registered voters, interviewed by telephone September 1-2, 2008."
In other words it's meaningless. A very small sampling (613!), about 13% are not even registered, no attempt to determine what percentage are "likely voters," no reference to state breakdown.
These are not numbers worthy of TPM even quoting.
September 3, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a story about Palin circulating around Ohio radio stations,,,,,,,, some right wing preacher and members of his flock are describing Palin as another Margaret Thacher and Golda Maier.
Oh the collective wisdom of the lower classes!
September 3, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a story about Palin circulating around Ohio radio stations,,,,,,,, some right wing preacher and members of his flock are describing Palin as another Margaret Thacher and Golda Maier.
Oh the collective wisdom of the lower classes!
September 3, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a story about Palin circulating around Ohio radio stations,,,,,,,, some right wing preacher and members of his flock are describing Palin as another Margaret Thacher and Golda Maier.
Oh the collective wisdom of the lower classes!
September 3, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
DRILL BABY DRILL? This is Daniel Plainview's convention from hell.
September 3, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
“We are holding a convention that will nominate a Republican woman governor, Sarah Pawlenty, as our next Vice-President.”
Ann Davidson RNC Co-Chair
http://tinyurl.com/59tfaq
H/T Crooksandliars.com
September 3, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink