Poll: By Double-Digits, More Say Obama Is Best Able To Address Financial Meltdown
A new Pew poll directly measures voter sentiment on the question of which candidate is best equipped to handle the current crisis, and it finds Obama ahead by double-digits, even among independents:
[V]oters favor Barack Obama over John McCain as the presidential candidate best able to address the current financial crisis: 47% favor Obama, while 35% choose McCain. Independents prefer Obama over McCain by a margin of 44% to 30%, while Republicans and Democrats line up solidly behind their party nominees.
The perception that McCain is better prepared to deal with crisis had been one of his key advantages. And McCain clearly hoped to use the meltdown to transfer that edge onto economic turf (where Obama enjoys other advantages) by repeatedly attacking Obama for supposedly not providing the leadership that McCain has.
If these numbers are any indication, the voters may not be buying it.
Still, public sentiment remains in flux on the crisis. Inexplicably, some 57% favor the bailout being offered by the government, while only 19% say that same government is doing a good or excellent job addressing the meltdown. Which means that where this ends up politically is anything but assured, and the stakes remain extraordinarily high for both candidates' performance in coming days.















They're scared. Sound familiar?
September 23, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Except this is "domestic" and if you worked in the NYC global financial sector like I do, people have every reason to be scared. . .
September 23, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not TOO inexplicable. They've been told by the media for a week now that government intervention is NECESSARY and it's got to happen RIGHT NOW or the world will end. They haven't yet put two and two together.
September 23, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now would be an excellent time to pull out an eviscerating Keating Five ad, kick the McScrooge while he's on the ground, and remind voters that he is part of the problem, not the solution.
September 23, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm. Very tempting.
Still, there's plenty of other ammo available right now. Dropping the K5 bomb now could dilute that, especially this week as the melt-down story unfolds.
It might be more effectively used closer to the election.
September 23, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm kind of surprised a 527 hasn't mentioned it yet.
September 23, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama team has been brilliant at letting things simmer. Simmering the stew. Letting events play out. Letting the people and the pundits and the press scramble all over a story.
Then... they serve the stew - piping hot!
September 23, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
got to be careful with the Keating 5 bomb. McCain was the only republican senator involved. The rest for democrats. While McCain is the only player on the political landscape today, it still kicks up some fodder for a Republican response.
September 23, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I thought about that. But hell, It would be safe to assume that, that was the last time mccain reached across the aisle, as he always says. reached across the aisle to to be a part of the keating 5.
September 23, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it inexplicable?
Hardly.
First, most people do not have the time to pore over the proposal and critique it. So, all else being equal, they begin without any evidence one way or the other about whether it should be accepted.
But all else is not equal.
Most Americans, despite what they may say, are disposed to look to a powerful figure to save them when they are told that there is a crisis. Consequently, most people in the US are disposed accept as true whatever it is that whoever is in power tells them. And, Paulson is the one in power, so people are disposed to believe what he says.
Also, most media outlets are doing the usual "balance" thing, where they substitute two partisan talking heads for genuine journalistic competence, which requires the journalist doing some digging and then presenting her/his considered judgment in the form of an article or newscast. (Lord I hate the way people construe "media objectivity".)
Finally, Hank Paulson last week was presented to the public by almost all major media outlets as a brilliant and trustworthy man. Since people had no opinion about him (or had never even heard of him) prior to last week, they take the only data they have - the lionization by the media - as their baseline assessment of the man. It's hard to go from there to rejecting his proposal to "save" the American economy.
Recall, after all, how easily the American public fell for the Iraq war. And recall how easily the American public has fallen for the lies the McCain camp has put out. Most people simply accept what they hear.
So, I am not surprised at all. This is what we should expect. After all, no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. And that, it seems, is almost *certainly* what is going on right now.
September 23, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Results may explain latest poll InAdv/Poll Position poll that has Ohio tied at 46 apiece and Obama ahead by +2 in Florida. May force McCain to swing for fences during the debate (which would have him looking very unpresidential)
September 23, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
This economic crisis is also why I think McCain made a HUGE mistake by putting the Foreign Policy debate first and the Economic debate last.
September 23, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah having the economic debate last is clearly a advantage for Obama, since we will be talking about economic issues up to the foreign policy debate then most likely will still be focus on economic issues until the last debate.
September 23, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out Nate Silver's analysis on the debate order: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/debates-somebodys-wrong.html
It's really quite interesting. But yeah, like I said, I think McCain made a huge miscalculation on this one.
September 23, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of Nate Silver. Just the other day I found out that a bunch of my friends in Chicago are good friends with Nate. They had no idea he was such a big star in the political blogosphere.
One of them was like, "Hey, you should check out my friend Nate's blog, 538.com. It's pretty informative."
September 23, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haha! Seriously? That's pretty awesome, actually.
September 23, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was just like, "You guys know Nate Silver?!!? Whaaaa?!"
One replied, "That's so bizarre that you've heard of him. He's such a nice, quiet, awkward guy. I could never imagine him being an internet celebrity."
September 23, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you've got a spurious n in that prepositional object.
September 23, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
heehee. He may start throwing some fences during the debate, too.
September 23, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, since calling for the firing Chris Cox didn't get the kind of attention he wanted, maybe McCain can start the debate by calling for the impeachment of Bush.
I mean, in a game of "can you top this" showing responsiveness to crises, that would pretty clearly be a hands down winner.
September 23, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
We may have just won this election.
There are still weeks to go and god knows what happens next - but trust has clearly been established.
September 23, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Things are looking really, really good.
In every poll, the economy is the #1 issue.
According to CNN, people blame the GOP for this mess by a 2:1 margin.
And now this Pew showing 47% of people favor Obama to handle the economy (compared to 35%, a Republican baseline, it'd seem, for McCain).
September 23, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Obama has said over and over:
"The American people are not stupid!"
September 23, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize Barack Obama is better equipped to handle this disastrous economy. Obama is surrounded the some of the best economic advisers like Reich, Rubin, Goolsbee, Soros, and Buffet.
September 23, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nulook23 says: "it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize Barack Obama is better equipped to handle this disastrous economy."
Oh, I agree!! But my biggest fear is that this nation is full of NON-rocket scientists.
September 23, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah...i agree. There too many voters who are thick-headed and closed minded to acknowledge Barack is a skilled leader.
September 23, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
O yes, as always, we're Dooooooooooooomed because Americans (excluding present company, of course, always - ) are stoopit.
jeez I wonder who they polled and reached Bush's 19% favorable, 76% unfavorable? Martians, you s'pose?
September 23, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well perhaps President McCain will offer Obama a position in finance and econimics.
September 23, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shut up, racist.
September 23, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, given his history it's more likely he'll offer you one.
September 23, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It looks good -- but not good enough. I'm going to donate again today. We gotta keep fighting like we're losing.
September 23, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, in another corner of the blogosphere, Jim Geraghty clamps his hands over his ears and sings "la, la, la I can't hear you..."
September 23, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooh, that's a doozy of a post. I particularly liked this "Black is white, up is down" frippery:
I hear that argument, but even if you don't like the particular numbers, the trend over the past seven days (seven separate daily samples) has been pretty consistent — McCain up or even, Obama down or even.
September 23, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see this as "inexplicable". You can favor the bailout because the Bush Administration has scared you into thinking that the world as we know it will end without this bailout while at the same time recognizing that this bailout shouldn't ever have been necessary in the first place. And that the bailout is the most palatable option offered by a thoroughly incompetent administration.
September 23, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly.
It's perfectly explicable afaic, for all the reasons you just named.
September 23, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
This sounds like a bit of sloppy editorializing on Pew's part:
The question doesn't ask about support for the administration's plan as opposed to an alternative Congressional plan:
The answers to this question...
... are a real eye-roller:
A lot of people are either fooling themselves or are bullshitting the pollster.
September 23, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree.
Between those 3 choices, I think most people would say "fairly well" - cause dude, that is so vague it can mean anything. It's just in the middle.
People like the middle. It feels safe.
September 23, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
True. But with 72% saying they understand this problem either very or fairly well, I've got to think they're bullshitting either themselves or the pollsters or both. No way that many really know what's going on. Hell, I'd say my own understanding is pretty limited.
Of course, I've got my suspicions...
September 23, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why would you think that, Tena? Clearly most people did not say "fairly well" (only 48% said it).
I'm just yankin' your chain. I agree that with only those three choices, many would opt for the middle of the road. I also agree with jzap, however, that it seems unlikely that nearly 3/4 of us understand the problems on Wall Street.
-- ARG
September 23, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm basing it mainly on the qualifier "fairly" cause I can read that in two entirely different ways myself - depends on emphasis.
I agree that most people are fooling themselves about how much they know. But I don't think that's unusual. Most people think they know more than they do.
;)
September 23, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know I think I know more than I do. I think.
September 23, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check these out: http://www.jiscilla.com/photoblog/images/obamashoe.jpg
September 23, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
But the lady in the ad said something else! Seriously, McCain...quit fooling yourself.
September 23, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is hoped that the people realize that this is not a 'crises', that it can be worked out with the next administration; and that it can not be worked out by the current. Remember the social security crises...it still hasn't been worked out but people are still retiring.
Whenthe sky really does fall, do you trust McCain/Palin to hold up the umbrella for the true Americans?
September 23, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink