Obama's Lead Nearly Doubles In Today's Tracking Polls
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, containing the first full day of sampling since John McCain's pseudo-suspension -- and Barack Obama is extending his lead:
• Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, the candidates were tied 46%-46%.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to an Obama lead yesterday of 49%-46%.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 47%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-43%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.9%-44.5%, almost double his margin from yesterday's 47.7%-45.3%.
Since John McCain began his quasi-suspension to deal with the economic crisis, we've had one new day of data for these three-day tracking polls. And that day doesn't appear to have treated him well.
Et tu, Huck?
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/26/huckabee-calls-mccain-debate-ploy-a-huge-mistake/
September 26, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Put your avatar in a different film, and he'd likely be telling McCain that Obama just drank his milkshake.
September 26, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
JZ: DRAINAGE!!
September 26, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee tells the truth too often to ever be welcomed back as a GOP candidate.
September 26, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans would not be nearly as desperate as they are now if they had Romney, Paul, or Huckabee in there. WTF happened in their primaries for them to decide that Desperado was the best candidate?
They deserve all of this, Palin and all...
September 26, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The fundamentalists hate Romney, the NeoCons hate Paul, and Wall Street hates Huckabee. So I guess they decided to pick someone they all hate. It's at least a form of party unity, I guess.
September 26, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
they got distracted by their own issues and ended up doing the wrong thing for the party. this something they usually pull on Democrats and Independents- put out distracting non-issues to what really matters to divide and conquer. This time they did it to themselves. Hilarious!
September 26, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It's at least a form of party unity, I guess."
Ha, that's a quality line.
September 26, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those other candidates were smart enough to know that whoever is saddled with the Duh-bya legacy will be a one term President, because the next President will be blamed for all that will transpire next year as the chickens come home to roost. They figured, what the hell, McStain is too old for 2 terms anyway, and I'm young enough to wait 1 term.
September 26, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama wins, he'll have the luxury that the meltdown occurred way before the election and everyone acknowledges Bu$h the repugs are responsible for the mess. What he does with it during his first term in office will determine his re-election prospects four years later.
September 26, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Repugs are already spinning that this crisis started with Clinton (which may very well be true) thus any Democratic successor to Bush-Halliburton has only the Democrats to blame for the whole mess.
September 26, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
At the time I thought McCain got nominated because he had the best shot at grabbing independents in a year when identification as a Repug was going down.
WTF made him turn so hard and erraticly to the right instead?
September 26, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he didn't turn to the right, so much as the right started pulling his strings.
When you got someone who is that old (or just that stupid, as was the case with W), all you need to do is surround him with the right "advisers" and they can change his view or reality pretty quickly.
Cheney and Rove's boys got in, and McCain got a new pair of glasses. Suddenly the Iranians are knocking at the gates, and we find ourselves in the situation we're in now.
September 26, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we officially say the convention bounce is over?
September 26, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! That and Palin-mania!!
September 26, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the Republican domination of US government for the past 8 years.
September 26, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clearly you have not read K-Lo today. To hear her tell it, the problem is not too much Sarah Palin; it is that there is not enough Sarah Palin. She thinks that the McCain campaign, instead of keeping Palin in hiding, needs to take off the leash and let her run free.
Oh please, oh please, oh please, dear Lord let K-Lo get her wish...
September 26, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh please, yes.
You have no idea how many people in smalltown Ohio think Palin is the positive part of the McCain ticket.
Once they realize that she's dumb as a rock, it's really over.
September 26, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most of the people who think Palin is great will never figure out that she is dumb as a rock.
September 26, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
So not true. They're low information voters, but not no information voters.
As best I can figure it, a lot of these people think it's like in the made for TV movies, where the sassy chick turns about to be way smarter than those know-it-all establishment types can ever dream.
Eventually reality is going to get through that that isn't Sarah Palin.
September 26, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the words of Nelson Muntz
McCain's Brinksmanship has backfired.
September 26, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is that in Spanish?
September 26, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
french
September 26, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, what happened to the clinging and the hanging and the narrowing?
Oh, wait! All right, all right, all right!
September 26, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crest of a wave, since it's a tracking poll!
September 26, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, when the pre-suspension days fall off the 3-day tracking polls later this weekend, Obama's going to open up a huge lead.
So long as he holds his own in tonight's debate, McCain is going to be in deep shit come Monday.
September 26, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama can continue to withstand McCain's antics at the debate tonight, he will further consolidate his lead.
McCain will return to Washington after the debate. So the chess game will continue then, but so far he has not been doing well for himself.
September 26, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too bad. If this suspension of his campaign had gone well, I was going to try it at work.
Back to my suspension of disbelief instead.
September 26, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too! I tried to "supsend" my workweek, but all I got is: "Getcher ass in here or you'll be having your own personal economic crisis."
September 26, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I tried to tell my boss I was all "mavericky". Oh well.
September 26, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain might want to think about heading over to the White House after the debate, I hear they're having a big sale on "Mission Accomplished" banners.
September 26, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey gang - you know what happens next? McLame gets a load of these numbers and he - drops out of the debate again.
Who wants to start a pool?
ROFLMAO!
September 26, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll tell you the pool I'm willing to start: Palin drops out before the VP debate. Longer shot, but not totally incredible: McCain picks Dana Perino as his running mate (hey, at least she can talk!)
September 26, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And, sadly, she has more foreign policy experience. Think about that.
September 26, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in on this bet.
She's going to have a family emergency that will require her presence next week.
September 26, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bristol has that miscarriage that was scheduled to occur in November.
PEACE
September 26, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought Bachus was going to replace Palin.
September 26, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not get cocky here.
There is still a chance McGramps will go out there tonight and kick Obama's ass all over the place.
September 26, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll take that bet.
September 26, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not gonna happen. Simple as that. It has become blatently apparent that McCain is not prepared to be POTUS, and it has shown in everything he has done. The best he can do is come to a draw with Obama. They simply aren't in the same league, McCain is clearly in over his head. McGramps gas light has been on for a few miles now, it's chugging and spitting smoke, it's not got enough to make it to the finish line.
Stick a fork in the old bastard and mooseburger, they are done!
September 26, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was smoking crack when I posted that.
September 26, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
You had to have been - anyone sporting that avatar and telling other people not to get cocky...
LOLOLOLOL!!!!
September 26, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I bet you did.
September 26, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, but I absolutely agree with Ezra Klein, who says that "His only real chance to recapture control the evening is a ferocious and personal assault on Obama." This is something I think we can expect to see.
September 26, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I'm afraid McCain's going to get very, very ugly.
September 26, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
With a face like that how could he get any uglier???
September 26, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
At which point Obama should laugh and say "Is that all you've got? Your great conservative philosophy and maverick-ness comes down to insults? Next question, Jim."
September 26, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'm totally up for this! Let's see a McCain meltdown. Red face, spittle flying, eye twitching...I'm getting all excited about this now.
September 26, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
That brings to mind images of Don Zimmer charging at Pedro Martinez during that fight in Game 3 of the 2003 ALCS. Obama might have a bit of trouble there, given how difficult it can be to grab a bowling ball by the ears.
September 26, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCainiacs are checking the hurricane forecasts.
Please, Lord, bring us a storm!
September 26, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The suspension that never was.
~
September 26, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack, for me please BUST this Mutha F*cka in the MOUTH tonight....... So i can watch the polls move further out of reach....
We all know what the "Bradely Effect" is. After Nov. 5th the "McCain Effect" will be in full force.... Where white people indicate in polls they are going to vote for the white guy but secretly are so scared of how incompotent and unqualified he is, they actually get over their racially motivated fears and vote for the more qualified, intelligent black dude...
September 26, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a line I want to hear tonight,
"After you're behavior this week, I gotta say: Senator McCain, you're 72 years old. Don't you think it's time to grow up?"
September 26, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
For all those who thought this stunt - like the selection of Palin - was "brilliant", I offer my prediction for McDuck's next act of sheer genius:
"Mccain replaces Palin with Larry Craig to shore up the bathroom sex demographic"
"McCain once again shows Obama just what it takes to make brave decisions for the greater good of the country." - William Kristol
September 26, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well send your predictions here:
http://www.slate.com/id/2200927/
:)
September 26, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey don't knock bathroom sex! "We Vote With Our Feet!"(tm)
September 26, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROFMAO
September 26, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Intrade's electoral predictions have Obama winning OH, PA and VA since yesterday, moving to well over 300 in the vote count.
Not that it matters, but interesting.
September 26, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!McMentum!!!!?
September 26, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I predict McCain parachutes into tonight's debate dressed as Superman.
My husband assures me that all fighter pilots are exhibitionists. In which case, I think being a fighter pilot makes someone inherently unsuitable for serious political responsibility.
Is it a vain hope that most people understand useless showboating when they see it?
September 26, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain wasn't a fighter pilot. He was a bomber pilot - he flew the A-4 aircraft. That's why he "sings"
"...bomb, bomb, bomb,
bomb, bomb Iran."
September 26, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anticipation for tonight has me all stressed out. McCain will hurl insult after insult. I am somewhat reassured that Jim Lehrer will moderate, but I worry what public perception will be when Obama defends himself.
September 26, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most people can tell an insult when they see one. At this point it doesn't matter if McCain scores points with his far right wingnuts. The indpendents and the moderate Republicans want answers about the future not insults.
I think Obama realizes this, and will just ignore and pivot on them, and thereby act presidential.
September 26, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
More cowbell!!!
September 26, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have the best avatar EVER.
September 26, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG! Best avatar I've ever seen. HFS, that's outstanding. "I got a fever, and the only prescription is....more cowbell!"
September 26, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jim Lehrer is the best! He'll keep a tight leash on the old guy!
September 26, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
AP has McCain "reversing" his decision on the debates. McCain's spin not working on the narrative on this one. Also in the article:
"McCain had also said he would suspend all campaign activities, but in reality the campaign just shifted to Washington while the work of trying to win the election went on."
I would like to see some MN and PA poll numbers now.
September 26, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stick a fork in "the Maverick"; he's done. (Yum . . . buzzard for dinner!!)
September 26, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Donate to the raccoons! Or skunks.
September 26, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The numbers coming out of tongight's ass handing...umm...debate will start showing what the race really looks like.
Obama better bring it. And I'm praying he does.
September 26, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
"and youre gonna regret"
September 26, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
It might be borderline blasphemous to quote Halperin here, but this should be seen:
http://thepage.time.com/mccain-pool-report-5/
September 26, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was just going to post this. And of all people to bring along he brings Rudy?
September 26, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who else does he have?
September 26, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well this answers Josh's question from yesterday - who will McLame bring as his support group for the debates?
I couldn't have ordered this up better myself - he's bringing that spittle-flecked drag queen with him to spout 9-11 in his ear?
Good lord! This is unbelievably awesome!
September 26, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Drama Queen dating Transvestite!
September 26, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rudy will behind the curtains doing the "ahhhh 'bullshit' choo" sneeze things when Obama answers questions.
September 26, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rudy means we can expect something like that speech at the convention: outright condescension, personal attacks, and grandstanding. And 9/11.
September 26, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe his next stunt is to announce Rudy as new VP at the debate.
September 26, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or Co-VP, because the world is too complicated to have just one.
September 26, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't that going to remind their religious constituency of what cheaters these two guys are, flanked by their young third wives in the photo?
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/debate-is-on/#comment-573553
September 26, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy mackeril! Halperin wrote that?
'Course, you know what this means, don't you?
Tonight Halperin's headline will be "McCain steadies the ship with masterful debate performance...."
September 26, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did they save an extra seat for Judith's pocketbook, which apparently always had its own seat next to her Highness?
September 26, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
For good evidence that Obama experienced a slight uptick in the polls from the McCain "stunt" check out the "momentum tracker" at johnniepolltracker.com.
September 26, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are all wondering what McCain's next stunt will be--besides getting a new running mate.
And will he lose it at the debate and have one of his infamous tirades, call somebody a "c**t" ?
September 26, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why does everybody always 'spell' around me?
George
September 26, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
he's going to rush Obama, calling him a "big meanie." Lehrer will have to jump in to break up the fight; McCain will accidentally throat-punch Lehrer while aiming for Obama; Lehrer rendered speechless. Under the circumstances, McCain will declare himself unable to continue with the debate - and will call on Obama to suspend his campaign out of deference to "the national tragedy" that occurred when "an American hero" (i.e., Lehrer) was "brutally attacked by terrorists."
The press will be amazed at McCain's magnanimity, and instantly declare him the winner of this and all future debates.
September 26, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a graduate of the University of South Carolina who has seen his football team stink up the joint offensively this year, I submit that if we don't have a better showing this weekend, we should suspend our season until our offensive crisis is over and NOT go play Ole Miss in Oxford next weekend.
September 26, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you all want a nice mental health break, The Economist has a real-time, interactive Global Electoral College map, showing how the rest of the world would vote (or at least Economist readers voting in this poll) in the US election.
http://www.economist.com/vote2008/index.cfm?source=most_commented
Pollsters predict a strong showing on the African continent as African Amer...I mean Africans are expected to make up a significant portion of the electorate :-P
September 26, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this were a serious election, pundits would be asking "Why can't Obama close the deal? He's behind in El Salvador!"
September 26, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has El Salvador and 44% of this country locked up.
The rest of the setient universe wants Obama.
September 26, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, 100% in Kenya and Indonesia! I declare Kenya and Indonesia the smartest countries in the world.
September 26, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm going to stay with the "let's not get cocky" crowd. McCain performed decently in most of the primary debates and Obama was inconsistant.
On the other hand, with the momentum trendlines, just a tie for Obama will end up as a win. Just as long as he doesn't make a major error.
September 26, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is no "let's not get cocky" crowd. There was one "let's not get cocky" comment and it has been withdrawn as having been made under the influence of drugs.
;)
September 26, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts exactly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0nyOyrprIs
Obama needs to keep cool the rest of the way and let McCain hang himself.
September 26, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tonight's debate won't correct McSame's misstep as part of the debate will be economy, and that part will eclipse foreign policy issues as Obama will try to link most of them to economy.
If McCain returns to DC after the debate, it will be more disaster for him, deal or no deal.
The end of his presidential run is nearing, virtually over.
It all looks good now.
September 26, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the Nightmare Media Narrative for John McCain continues.
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/09/what_actually_happened_yesterd_1.html
So McCain "suspends" his campaign--he didn't, really--and equivocates about whether to debate because the financial emergency is so crucial--a week after he said the fundamentals of the economy were sound--and he flies to Washington where:
1. The House Republicans blow up a rare, and necessary, moment of true bipartisanship to make it look like McCain, who has no expertise in this area, has come to the rescue.
2. McCain sits mute in the White House summit arranged for his benefit. He doesn't even ask Paulson what he thinks of the House Republican plan.
3. He refuses to take a stand, one way or another, on the Republican plan.
September 26, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
So the chess game will continue then,
McCain shoots "Craps" ..... we're no playing Chess, we're playing craps.
September 26, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain may be shooting craps - as I understand it, craps is one game that largely depends on pure luck; Obama is most certainly not shooting craps. McLame is losing against himself.
If Obama is playing a game, it's sure as hell not craps.
September 26, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Craps takes brains. If you know how to play, you can do better at a craps table than anywhere else except for Blackjack. However, if you don't know what you're doing, it's a quick ride to losing your shirt.
Yeah, craps fits pretty well.
September 26, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't gamble, never played craps, going strictly by what I've been told.
I find gambling beyond boring.
I can't have every single vice, now, can I?
September 26, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. come line bets with max. back half odds can lower the house advantage to less than 0.2%
Only blackjack and a grind betting strategy can do better in a casino.
September 26, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poker.
September 26, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It looks like outcome of the debate has already been decided.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/images/26Sep_Friday_WSJ.JPG
September 26, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice catch.
September 26, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
That shit is funny.
And, hell, with the gall camp grandpa has shown lately why not pre-emptively rewrite reality?
September 26, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Deweytruman12.jpg
September 26, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure everyone around McCrypt-Keeper is telling him what a smashing success this was, but I wonder how many more stunts of this sort he can afford? He's beginning to look like the most hare-brained Presidential candidate this side if H. Ross Perot.
September 26, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, unlike McCain, Perot is competent to run a large corporation.
September 26, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, unlike McCain, Perot is competent to run a large corporation.
September 26, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's not that great a debater. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy, and hope McCain chokes tonight, like in gets the Heimlich right on the TV. Keep in mind also that Lehrer in my opinion is a little naïve and leans a little Republican. He may also feel some compassion for some other pinhead who's about to geeze.
September 26, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jim Lehrer is also a veteran who considers McCain courageous.
I think it's going to be a long night of insults from McCain.
September 26, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, hopefully Obama can knock it out of the park tonight in the debate. I wish this was the domestic issues debate, though, instead of foreign policy. Still, I imagine economics will still be brought up in relation to our safety and the expenditures in Iraq.
September 26, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right after McCain picked Palin, I posted her a few times that she wouldn't make it until election day.
Now I pray every single day to whoever may be listening that I was wrong.
September 26, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
ooops...posted HERE.
September 26, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
As per poll vs poll ....
Prof Pollkatz has been plotting Bush's approval numbers for years. One thing I've always noticed is that Gallup always broke Bush's way :
http://pollkatz.homestead.com/files/approval-data_files/zzzmainGRAPHICS_14808_image001.gif
September 26, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
As per poll vs poll ....
Prof Pollkatz has been plotting Bush's approval numbers for years. One thing I've always noticed is that Gallup always broke Bush's way :
http://pollkatz.homestead.com/files/approval-data_files/zzzmainGRAPHICS_14808_image001.gif
September 26, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Vice Presidential debate is in six days.
One wonders what the discussions are in Camp McCain: do they allow the Alaska Guv to go out and do her version of a SNL skit? Or do they panic and replace her with Pawlenty or some other sucker before then, saying she's withdrawing to "spend time" with her family?
But make no mistake: McCain needs a home run tonight, and he knows it. My guess is that he'll do something desperate to try and get it. Hail Mary III, coming up....
September 26, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh. What's with that ARG poll of CO? Is it just me or do they have a real Republican lean? I wouldn't be skeptical if other recent polls hadn't been showing Obama ahead by pretty decent margins.
September 26, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARG has a consistently anti-Obama lean in the primaries.
September 26, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'd noticed that as well. *shrug*
September 26, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'd take that one with a grain of salt. It's definitely an outlier. They are also showing Obama with a 1pt lead in FL. A week ago that also would have looked like an outlier. Today....
September 26, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
For what it's worth, both the CO and FL polls are within a point of the previous recent (2 weeks for CO, 1 for FL) ARG polls of those states.
A better explanation: it's ARG. (Or, don't assume malevolence when incompetence is a sufficient explanation.)
September 26, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
For what it's worth, both the CO and FL polls are within a point of the previous recent (2 weeks for CO, 1 for FL) ARG polls of those states.
A better explanation: it's ARG. (Or, don't assume malevolence when incompetence is a sufficient explanation.)
September 26, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
hurf
September 26, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's Letterman footage from last night for those that missed it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7PB_cHljCE
September 26, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Regardless of Palin's performance in the debate, I don't think it will have that much of an effect. The independents who are paying attention to her already dislike her and those who aren't paying attention won't care how awful she does. I think it will be funny to watch, but I don't think they'll try to hide it.
Never thought I'd miss Ron Paul so much: http://tinyurl.com/66o79q
September 26, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
As well all know, McCain's prowess on foreign policy is a myth. He knows it better than the economy, but not by much. If there is an "economy as national security/foreign policy issue" slant to the debate tonight - and there probably will be - I think that is an advantage for Obama.
Also, McCain's shtick in the primary debates - where all he had to say was, "BOMB SOMEBODY", to get the crowd fired up - won't go over well in a national debate. This is when undecideds start to tune in. They want to learn about the candidates - one-liners and recycled stump-speech rhetoric won't do. Of course, Obama can't get too windy in his responses.
All the wingers like to point to Saddleback. That's just silly - the was an audience made to order for McCain. He whipped out the usual stump speech lines and anecdotes. But in reality, to win that debate with that audience, all he had to do was respond to the "when does life begin" question with, "at conception." He did. Anything else he said that evening was just white noise to the audience at Rick Warren's church.
And in times like these, people really don't want to hear about how McCain was a POW. They know that already...they don't want to hear it again. It says nothing about what's going on now in our nation.
September 26, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I can't believe that McCain will be that well rested. After running around yesterday and then flying in today.
He made not go for the homerun here, hoping to just get in and out as quickly as possible, and then fly back to DC in hopes of changing the current narrative about his stunt.
September 26, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. And it wasn't all that successful, either, because what remark had the longest shelf-life? Being rich = making 5 mil a year.
September 26, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
My only fear is that somehow, Obama will act irritated or impatient a la Gore - that really cost Gore, and that's how they played it when Obama said "You're likeable enough to Hillary -
BUT, before you get all over my ass and call me a concern troll! I seriously, seriously doubt that is going to happen. Obama has ice in his veins when it comes to this kind of thing - I don't think he's half as likely to lose his cool as McCain is. McCain doesn't seem to be able to look cool and collected even when he really needs to - he's been all over the place this week and that's likely to get only worse by tonight.
Best new name I've heard for the McCain-Palin ticket: McFlailin'
September 26, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not predicting a damn thing for tonight. I just cannot even consider wild possibilities - I have no clue. I can't imagine what McLame will do since he's totally irrational. Nobody knows what he'll do including himself.
Obama I've seen debate once and that wasn't a debate. It was that Hannity by proxy to Stephanopoulus monstrosity.
September 26, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who knows how far down he will tumble, now that Evel McKnievel has hit the far side of the Snake River Canyon.
As the Dodge Hemi guy says, "That can't be good!"
September 26, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Evel McNievel. Sweeet.
Maybe MCCain could get Lee Majors to reprise his role as "Fall Guy" and they would refurbish an old Navy A-4, fly over Alaska but accidentally get show down by Palin shooting at Moose from a helicopter.
Now THAT'S change we can believe in.
September 26, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been trying to figure out what will happen tonight, and realized I needed to think of the most outrageous thing anyone could do, not the things that normal individuals would do. Here are a couple: McCain pulls out a cellphone at the start of the debate, and takes a call from John Boehner that says "we've reached an agreement".
McCain brings up Bill Ayers and Reverend Wright, repeatedly, even though they have no connection with the issues and even though Jim Lehrer repeatedly tries to return to the topic at hand.
McCain walks off the stage in the middle of the debate, saying "I refuse to spend more time with someone as dangerously naive and uninformed as Osama."
Any others?
September 26, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unable to get his nap in before the debate, he falls asleep at the podium.
September 26, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I'd be delighted if that happened. Seriously.
September 26, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans spin McCain failing asleep as a great move in putting country first, showing that he was working so hard on the bail out bill he didnt get any sleep.
September 26, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pursuant to the old Nazi adage (many time put to good use by the Republicans) that if you repeat a lie often enough, it will be perceived as the truth, I think that we can expect McCain to intimate (or even outright claim) that the deal fell apart because of Obama. No evidence will be adduced, but none will be needed because the point will simply be to assert the claim often enough to get the media to pick it up and cover it as "some say..., while others point out..."
September 26, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Incontinence?
September 26, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Shark. It has been jumped.
September 26, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forgive the (uninformed) question, but can one of you wise folks give me a definition of "three-day tracking poll"? Data from three days ago? Average of three days?
September 26, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
its like this,
lets say they have polling data from 23rd 24th and 25th. They avg those three and when they get data from the 26th they drop off the 23rd and avg them again.
September 26, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you kindly! Encouraging news indeed.
September 26, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oilbama when pressed by Jim Lehrer to explain why he voted for the Bush Cheney Energy Bill explains that he was getting heat for voting present all the time and decided to prove he was in the pocket of Big Oil once and for all.
September 26, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
What? Your Muslim smears weren't effective, so you had to return to the classics?
September 26, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Honey, that shark has been jumped, rolled, tied up and left in an alley.
September 26, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOP insiders call Palin "clueless."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/report-mccain-aides-compl_n_129618.html
September 26, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would lend credence to the idea that McCain's attempt to delay this debate was to get it moved to the VP slot.
September 26, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain could have a stroke. His left eye has developed a droop.
September 26, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously, McCain should have kept campaigning, and sent Palin to Washington to fix the financial crisis. She could tell the administration, "Thanks but no thanks on that corporate socialization... if our country wants a bunch of greedy billionaire welfare recipients, we'll build them ourselves."
September 26, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Besides, it would be irresponsible to spend all that money when we need it for the upcoming war with Russia.
September 26, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Marioth's HuffPo link.
If McLame doesn't commit harikuri or just himself to an asylum before this is all over, I'll be really surprised.
LMOA
September 26, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they do try to postpone the VP debate it will official be the end of McCain's campaign.
September 26, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Breaking: Palin-Biden debate cancelled due to witches.
September 26, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahhhh. Lovely. Jeez, it took them *that* long? I think TPM knew it was a bust in the first Palin thread...
September 26, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder what LMOA stands for?
September 26, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Left McCain On his Ass?
September 26, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I likes it so much. Beats me being stoopit.
September 26, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whenever Biden knows something and Palin doesn't, she can just say "I'll get back you later on that?" like she did to Katie Couric.
September 26, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
He starts speaking in tongues. And then Sara comes out and lays her hands on him.
September 26, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was supposed to be way upthread in response to Ctvoter.
September 26, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now THAT was hilarious ... definitely LOL funny.
September 26, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't be surprised to see McCain in his militant mode pontificating how he's the only one who can handle the most recent national security crisis -- today's Pakistan's "attack" on U.S. helicopters at its border with Afghanistan.
September 26, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen:
I thought Iraq and Pakistan shared a border? Right next to Czechloslovakia?
September 26, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
And if you stand up on one of those little bluffs there in Pakistan you can see Alaska out of your right eye and Russia out of your left (no political inference intended!).
September 26, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Beautiful Ellen! Just like the view I get here from the intersection of the Great Lakes and the Pacific. Did you see this?
(CNN) – Prominent conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, an early supporter of Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin, said Friday recent interviews have shown the Alaska governor is "out of her league" and should leave the GOP presidential ticket for the good of the party.
September 26, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I did see Parker's opinion. Can other conservatives be far behind?
One way McCain may try to grab the next media cycle would be to announce that the media has hounded poor Sarah out of the campaign, and as a true gentleman, he is bidding her farewell. Then in the next breath he introduces his new running mate named_________ (fill in the blank). More theater for one of the all-time great political drama queens.
September 26, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is playing Poker, Chicago-style: close to the chest, no tells, and a willingness to challenge a bluff.
September 26, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out the radical change on InTrade today:
Obama 55.7%, McCain 43.8%
September 26, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who's the 43.8% I'll take that bet.
September 26, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
From CNN's Quick Vote :
What's most to blame for the stalled $700 billion bailout talks?
Principled differences of opinion 32% 64079
Political maneuvering 68% 137233
September 26, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Besides being drugged, mcsenile will undoubtedly be wired with a transceiver, like bush in 2004. If palin survives more than the week-end, she'll probably have several of them.
He's going to be really tired and confused. There's been lots of news in the last few days: North Korea restarting plutonium enrichment, Russian military maneuvers with Venezuela, "live firefights with Pakistani military":
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/09/pakistan_warns_us_troops_after.php
I'm sure he has little clue about all this, but nevertheless he already thinks he's won the debate - Check this out!
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/mccain_wins_debate.html
More delusional by the minute.
September 26, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually hope McCain does try to shamelessly attack Obama in the debate tonight. It will play into a perfect media narrative. McCain = Hot. Obama = Cool.
It will give Obama the opportunity to just brush it off, stay cool, and keep his focus on the issues people care about.
If Obama stands up there and does not let a single thing McCain says get under his skin and does not react remotely defensive, he will come out looking very, very strong.
That is Obama's challenge in this debate, but he can do it. He's been training and we all know the man has ice in his veins.
September 26, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
RCP has Obama +5.2 in Michigan:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
There's still some work to do in FL & OH:
FL Mcc +1.6
OH Mcc +1.2
But that would not reflect all the newly registered Dems!
September 26, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, this crisis began with Reagan and the deregulation boom of the '80s.
September 26, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some of the numbers are getting dangerously close to a Diebold/SCOTUS proof majority. The implications are truly frightening. Who knows what these fuck-wads will do to keep it close enough to steal.
September 26, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where are SFC Wallace and gotalife/fogu2/Lalopendejo when you need them? Perhaps they've suspended trolling to deal with the debate crises.
September 26, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
How right you are. I am in sort of a rural area of OH myself. I cannot believe how ignorant a lot of people are here. Palin will be a disaster.
September 29, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink