Obama's Lead Goes Up In Today's National Polls
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with Obama's lead over John McCain expanding by a small margin:
• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was ahead 49%-44%.
• Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, the two were tied 48%-48%.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-42%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.7%-44.9%, a slightly bigger lead than yesterday's 48.2%-45.2% advantage.
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It's wonderful Barack will go into the first debate with a significant lead.
Can someone please remind me who the moderator will be and the format of the first debate.
September 20, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jim Lehrer of PBS
September 21, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh that's too bad. I was really looking forward to some moron talking about flag pins for the whole debate.
September 21, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The moderator will be "closet republican X" and the format will be "all questions framed from a twisted republican point of view" so don't get too excited waiting for this... Expect the worst and hope for the best.
September 21, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happened to all the other responses? There was 6-7 here before?
September 20, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Eric wasn't the author of the blog. Turf war?
September 20, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
They fell into the bit bucket. Damn intertoobz musta gotten clogged.
September 21, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its not like a truck you can just it on!
September 21, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Damn intertoobz musta gotten clogged."
Toobz? This board is ANALOG?
Kinky...
September 21, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The NEW Public Policy Poll in North Carolina (right side of screen) has Obama pulling even with McCain. According to the pollster's raw data the economy is driving voters to Obama.
September 21, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
If, as many predict, the economy is the #1, most urgent issue that dominates the rest of the election, Obama is going to win by a very large margin.
September 21, 2008 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very surprised to see a tie in NC. With NC and VA in play, McSame is gonna be stretched pretty thin.
September 21, 2008 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to use Hillary and Bill, plant them in western corner of North Carolina to get those rural voters out.
September 21, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Surprised by NC, really?
Those folks kept that racist cracker Jesse Helms in office for years.
September 21, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Needless to say, McCain had a pretty miserable week. One of the issues that didn't get much notice when Palin was selected is the gaping hole both would have with the economy. That has now become a boondoggle for both of them. Palin is nowhere to be found in a leadership capacity and Johnny Mac is being, well... Johnny Mac in all of his glory and essence.
I thought McCain said last week Palin would be doing numerous interviews. As it happened, she did one, with Hannity. Any mistakes that may have been made were surely edited out. No way the master of spin would let any slips out.
I don't really see how McCain can pull back closer without any major happenings. Any ideas how McCain could get possibly get back into this or is this thankfully over?
September 21, 2008 12:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin not strong on the economy? If that were true, how could she have confirmed that she has "that readiness" and won't blink? Did you think of that before passing judgment? Are you not prepared to have an unblinking whizzbang Klondike Veep running the economy?
How about this test for you: how much Salmon does your state export and how much does Alaska? Think they could do that without Palin to sign the export papers? Ever consider that, you so smart? Or are you against Salmon as well as women?
September 21, 2008 7:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just not surprised at all.
September 21, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not surprise either. McCain and the MSM will try to make this election about biography, but according to the polls voters are less concerned about biography and more concerned about issues. That is why i always thought McBush's bounce was bullshit it would dissipate once the election got back to the issues.
September 21, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I honestly don't care about those BS analyses that say elections have always been fought and won based on the character of the candidates. It's about the issues, especially in a time like this, with an economic crisis on our hands. It was always about the issues, and McCain made a fatal mistake by running a campaign that ignored such a fact. I truly hope he loses a crushing defeat on November 4th. He deserves it after the campaign he's run.
September 21, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not to minimize issues, but I think character is still a big factor. If a candidate's character is read as untrustworthy, it doesn't matter where he says he stands on the issues.
Especially a guy like McSame, who's flip-flopped on so many issues. By lying so much out of both sides of his mouth, he's lost the character battle as well as the issues battle.
September 21, 2008 1:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that character can play a role, but in an election like this, with the economy in shambles, people are not going to focus on character as much as they are the substance and solutions to the issues.
Character assassination works, and it's one of the reasons Republicans have dominated national elections for a long while. But times like these people are going to approach the issues first, and character second. Perhaps I'm wrong, but that's always the way I saw it, and that's always what I got from talking to other people.
September 21, 2008 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
And here lies the Palin advantage! Has "that readiness" and won't blink! Character X 2!
September 21, 2008 7:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
With all due respect Chrono, are you kidding me? Do you realy think this election will be different? Issues, not personalities. Huh. Have we ever had such an election in recent history? How the hell do you think Monkey Boy 'beat' Gore in 2000? (OK, aside from a great deal of help from the Supreme Court--and the press.) There were other factors in 2004, but the Republicans ultimately won by painting John Kerry as some effete, wimpy, librul elleetest who lied about his war record, again with plenty of help from the Fourth Estate. Wanna go back further? Dukakis was a dry, unfeeling, 'out-of-touch' East Coastlibrul who let scary negroes out of jail so they could go and rape and kill blonde blue-eyed white women.
Now who'd you wanna have a beer with? W., or Gore/Kerry? (Let's put aside full, 24/7 access to nuclear launch codes...) Enough Americans answered: 'W.' Oh, and your new drinkin' buddy, whose just like you, 'cept he's fourth-generation old money, also gets to be president.
The Republicans might lose, but only because of the fact that electing them for the last eight years (and handing them control of Congress and the Senate back in '94) has come back and bit us in the ass perhaps one too many times. A wrecked economy, a depised standing the world, a staggering deficit, and a destroyed major city which has yet to be rebuilt... Need I go on? And we just might still elect another. Why? Because he has backed all of these policies which frame the issues? No, because he is a true (white) American hero.
OK, I guess I just vented my spleen--apologies. Think I'll take another Klonopin and hit the sack.
Robert
September 21, 2008 2:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Repubs certainly can run on personality and one liners and subterfuge and they've been doing that and giving Obama a run for his money for a while now. But, in a real crisis - such as where our personal safety and our children's are at stake or where we are watching our livelihoods and the means of supporting ourselves now and in the future dissolving before our eyes - well, people suddenly aren't in a laughing mood anymore. The stakes get real high and things suddenly get real serious and McCain's frat boy act and Palin's wrinkly nose affectation aren't so funny and cute. We start looking for one thing - leadership. McCain might have managed to project that if he'd taken a different approach from the start and maintained that. He didn't. I think that Obama has the advantage here, although I still believe that the race will be close - and I don't think that's due to personality issues, I think it's due to race issues.
September 21, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Carol. The voice of rationality, as usual. Some people will never get it. I'm glad you're one of the few who does. =)
September 21, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now let's not get carried away -- that nose crinkle thing is still cute!
September 21, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I saw an article yesterday saying Obama is the preferred "football-watching" buddy. So there!
My guess is that Fournier didn't write it...
September 21, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
But . . . But . . . But . . . McInsane and She-That-Must-Not-Be-Questioned are GODs!!!!
They can not fail! They need to ride their convention bump like a wave across the finish line . . .
Sadness.
September 21, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
o yay.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/20/mccain-camp-argues-that-a-loose-debate-format-could-leave-sarah-palin-vulnerable-as-a-relatively-inexperienced-debater/#comments
I wonder how this will change things.
September 21, 2008 1:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not too concerned about the VP debate. I expect Gwen Ifill will do a good job as moderator. It'll be better for her to press McSame's Earmark Queen on her inconsistencies rather than Biden doing it. It should avert the casting of Sarracuda as victim at Joe's hands.
In return, McSame has agreed to a more free-wheeling format in the biggies. That should increase his disadvantage.
Even hidden wireless boxes won't be enough to save either of them.
September 21, 2008 2:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not about style, it's about substance. Can she respond to the questions or not? That's what the post-debate discussions will be about.
If she can't respond intelligently to the questions that are posed to her, they McCain Camp can't attribute that to her inexperience w/debates, it's because she's inexperienced in regards to national political leadership. Let's maintain that focus.
September 21, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thats a BIG "if". Her answers so far have been gobbledygook...
September 21, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
For real.
I predict that she will try to fill up her time allotment with a "blizzard of words" that say absolutely nothing in response to the questions put to her.
Biden will have to resist the urge for eye-rolling. The camera guys will be looking for it.
September 21, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Biden should be encouraged to roll his eyes. I also believe he should start each response to her with "Are you fucking kidding me?"
I know it won't happen, but I'd love to see it.
September 21, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know, my man Joe Biden just may let 'er rip one time,- "Are you fucking kidding me?". Can't you hear that Delaware accent now? That would be soooo great to see and I imagine the applause across the country would be absolutly deafening. They'd hear it in Russia!!! I will go to sleep laughing tonight with that image in my head!!
September 21, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
More God news, But!
We can't spike the ball on the 20-yard line.
I sure as H*ll wish I could remember the poster here who said this, but to badly paraphrase her or him: 'Cool, now get out and vote, volunteer, help with the GOTV efforts like the polls show us five points behind.'
That's the battle cry ladz and lasses, now let's go and f*cking win this election!
Robert
September 21, 2008 1:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Er, that's uhm, "More GOOD news."
Note to self: 'proofread your !#!%^%!! bloody posts before hitting send.'
Robert
September 21, 2008 1:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
From:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah-palin-meets-with-afghani.html
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Sarah Palin Meets with Afghani President Karzai (Transcript)
TRANSCRIPT:
Palin: Oh, Mr. President, it is such a pleasure to meet you, you're the first head of state that I have had the opportunity to meet--which is more than many Vice Presidents--and I'm so glad that my first one is an Afghani.
You know, in Trig's class there was a little Afghani? He was the child of one of the oil executives, and he was so cute, with his little turban runnin' around, everyone just loved him, and felt for him...
Karzai: Yes.
Palin: And everyone knew that we just had to defend him and keep him free and that's why I think that with a Palin/McCain...
Palin Aide: (looking up from clipboard) McCain/Palin.
Palin: ...McCain/Palin ticket, we can make sure of that, if we have to attack Russia, even, I mean, to keep people free at home, just like we want to keep our people free. We have so much in common! I know you have the problem with the poppies, and I understand so well, Mr. Karzai, because we have the same problem with the crystal meth in Wasilla? And I said "Look, we've got to shake this up!" and then that's just what I said, I said 'Look, let's just see what we have in common with these guys!" And that's just what you could do with the Taliban, Mr. Karzai. They've already so moral, and they want people to live by the straight and narrow, and they've got the newspapers sayin' and the schools doin' lots of the right things. They just need to get some of the right ideas, and pray to the right Lord. And, if they don't understand, we still have the weapons left over from Iraq, and then we can't blink, we can't blink, can we, Mr. Karzai?
Karzai: (Looks at Palin silently without moving his head. Pauses.). Blink?
Palin: Right. The thing is, we just have to hit the ground runnin', Mr. Karzai. That's what I do. A few weeks ago I didn't even know what a Vice President doesclock so you know just how much time you have left until you finish it. I tell you, Mr. Karzai, it's such a motivating influence on my staff, the good ones, anyway, they know what they're supposed to finish and when, they hear me sayin "Look at the clock, people, look at the clock, and know what you have left to finish..."
Karzai: Yes.
Palin: And so I said to my husband, Todd--I call him the "First Dude"--Do you have that word 'Dude' here in Afghanistan?--maybe it's like "Khan" or "Emir" or somethin'?--I said to him, 'Todd, we have to take a look at what's happenin' in Afghanistan--before McCain called or any other thing happened--' cause I saw that Russia was right across from us, and then right next to that you have all the 'Stans--(counts cross fingers) Kyrgistan, oh, what's the others?--well, you are aware of them, of course, Mr. Karzai (laughs)...
Karzai: (Nods)
Palin: And if we don't let other people know of what I'm aware of then the world won't change, Mr. Karzai. I know we have the same goals even if we don't have the same God yet...(aide touches Palin on shoulder, whispers). Even, not yet, I meant 'same God even, Mr. Karzai, and my point is, we can't let others stop our choice, which is freedom for those who deserve it, and that's why I know a Palin/McCain...
Palin Aide: (reaching over to touch shoulder)
Palin: Stop! (brushing aide's hand off)...McCain/Palin ticket will do just what you want, Mr. Karzai...
Second Palin Aide Approaches: It's time for our next appointment, Gov. Palin.
Palin: It was so good meeting you President Karzai, and all of your other people, it was so good meeting you. Shalom! (waves, exits).
Karzai: (to his aide, in Pashto): She makes the last one look like the Grand Mufti.
Cite:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah-palin-meets-with-afghani.html
September 21, 2008 5:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
thge way mccain gets back into it is that the john kings of the media continue to reframe the coverage in an up is down way and the dumbass swing voters continue to be talked out of common sense.
September 21, 2008 8:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tied up in my home state of NC and Obama will be here today doing a large rally, downtown Charlotte.
September 21, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Saw somewhere that McCain camp now is dumping a lot of resources into NC and opening more field offices. Again, Obama has McCain running over all over the place rather than being to concentrate on places like MI and WI.
September 21, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Starting phones tomorrow in WI. Looking forward to getting in and working ...
Also, for what it's worth, as we biked across the state three days last week, we took an informal poll of political signs in peoples' front yards across rural WI.
McCain - 10
Obama - 15
Landslide ;-) I think the margin of error was +/-1. What can I say? We were tired at the end of each day.
Of course, it's just two bikers and a silly poll. But aren't all polls silly, anyway? I think it should go front page.
September 21, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
2 more FL polls saying its very close,
+2 for McCain
+1 for McCain
September 21, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
The last poll that I saw that had McCain at +2 was taken from the 15th to the 17th, before Obama has done three stump speeches. My guess is that he is even closer, if not inching ahead.
September 21, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
How important is Florida again? Can he reasonably win if he loses Florida and Ohio? The Ohioan Talibangelicals will probably deliver for GOP again, whatever the polls say.
September 21, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs the Kerry states + Iowa, NM and another state. So FL is one of many states that if he wins then its over.
September 21, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which means that Palin-McCain roadshow have to cover a lot of territory (which brings up the question why both of them were off the trail yesterday.)
September 21, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its the weekend, McCain needs his nap time.
September 21, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I don't see how he's been able to keep it up as long as he has - he's 72, for god's sake. At 72 my dad was falling asleep in his chair every 15 minutes.
September 21, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just the quality we need in our CIC.
September 21, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is Palin needed her study time learning about things like the European Union.
September 21, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
They can pump her full of facts and it still will not make her ready because you can't just know the facts - you have to understand the whole picture and I do not think she is capable of doing that.
September 21, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I just wish we could get her to try and articulate how the Health Care system in this country works.
There is a link up thread about how the McCain camp got the VP debate to have shorter time for answers just for this reason.
September 21, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
They let him get away with that, again? These lowered expectations for her piss me off so much. It's insulting all the way around.
September 21, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only silver lining is that Palin will have to be concise in her answers and can't spend her time talking about "well, Gwen, in Alaska, we have a saying..."
And I have faith that Gwen Ifill will ask straight policy questions.
September 21, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to put my faith in the media, but since they've actually been acting like a free press lately, I'm with you.
September 21, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't have that high of hopes for the media doing its job, she is going to give generic talking points and the media will be amazed as long as she doesn't say America is in Asia or something.
September 21, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Knowing the facts and critical analysis of the facts/policy formulation represent vastly different levels of cognition and readiness. I suppose the mccain campaign is hoping she can dazzle(fool) enough of the voters by regurgitating facts long enough to win. I think voters are smarter than that.
September 21, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
acamus - basically I am back where I was when she was announced - I think she's biggest political mistake ever.
September 21, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Had the VPs been announced three or four days before the election, one might have justified it as a decent hail mary pass. But when one looks at her downsides, in association with McCain's biggest weakness -- the economy, yeah she was the biggest political mistake.
September 21, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
She was an impulse and I am reasonably sure that McLame has regretted it many times.
September 21, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Like a one-night stand.
September 21, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Like a 1 night stand that gives you and STD.
September 21, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, yup.
September 21, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good morning, everyone!
Rasmussen tracker is unchanged:
O:48 M:47
September 21, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good morning.
Y'all are taking the edge off Mr. Tena leaving this morning to go back to Dallas.
I'd be crying if I didn't have y'all to talk to. ;)
September 21, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to help. Just trying to keep it real as they say. The race is close, the MSM can't be trusted, etc. but Obama has found his voice and the momentum and McCain the Deregulator is flailing with Palin quickly becoming a liability.
September 21, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given that this represents the McCain-favorable weekend polling, this is good news indeed.
September 21, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama up +14 in Iowa. What's in their water that they can see what the rest of midwest can't? Hopefully this is indicator that Minnesota and Wisconsin will get their act together.
September 21, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I find it almost impossible to believe that the Democrats have to fight for Wisconsin and Minnesota - they used to be so liberal!
September 21, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if the polls just give too much weight to the rural areas. I was in Madison, WI recently and it reminds me of Portland, OR. As long as there is good turn out, I'm not too worried about WI.
September 21, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Madison, WI used to be considered one of the most liberal places in the US as well as one of the best places to live.
And at one time I had a number of friends from Minneapolis, all of whom had gone to the U of Minn there and I had believed that most of Minnesota was like that and you're right - it's the rural areas. Just like everywhere. There is a culture war alright - between urban America and rural America.
It's a bit more serious than it looks, too, I think.
September 21, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will be in Green Bay on Monday, while Michelle will be in Madison. Just like Seattle-Tacoma in WA, Portland-Eugene in OR, the urban areas will need to hammer out a victory in WI. But who knows, maybe Obama will get enough rural votes to blunt McCain so that urban areas will give him a 6 or 7% win.
September 21, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great numbers out of Iowa.
Two new Florida polls, the race is too close to call:
Miami Herald/St. Pete Times (9/14-9/17):
M 47, O 45 (MoE 3.5%)
http://www.miamiherald.com/979/story/695102.html
Research 2000 poll for the Sun Sentinel (9/15-9/18):
M 46, O 45 (MoE 4%)
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-flaprezpoll0921sbsep21,0,7609474.story
September 21, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Both of those FL polls taken before Obama's two day visit, so it's possible that it's even closer.
September 21, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I love the energy and enthusiasm. Don't forget about us folks in Missouri. Sure were down 4-5% in the polling, but the campaign offices here are a hive of activity. I'm a neighborhood team leader out here in a pretty split neighborhood but we are going to find every single Obama supporter, and they are all going to vote.
Basically if you can canvas or phone bank do it. Our get out the vote efforts are going to be colossal. We can win these states that "lean McCain". Who knows what kind of shady business can take place in an Ohio or Florida. Let's just change the electoral map all over the country.
September 21, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. Many people wants to write off Missouri, but I think a victory there is still possible (but it would be very difficult, given the demographics of the state). Correct me if I'm wrong.
September 21, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
They aren't great, but people forget that we Obama beat Clinton on super tuesday here. Obama is in Kansas City today. I don't think he would be coming if he didn't think we could really do this.
September 21, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm prepared for the onslaught of Ohio-bashing.
A new Ohio Poll out today has McSame up by 6.
The crosstabs show Obama winning independents by 5. So obviously, they skewed the poll with more Repubs as "likely voters."
I'll say it again,
we WILL WIN ohio.
September 21, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seems to be a high percentage of people (19%) who say they might change their vote.
And 4% for Nadar? Who are these idiots?
September 21, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
OH is still very winnable. I would think that w/the economy tanking, Obama will start to gain a real advantage there in the polls. This week may be a turning point for him there.
September 21, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
This campaign season has brought with it many highs and lows. One week BO is doing well the next week its McCain. Right now BO is riding high, but we still have 6 weeks left to go. We have to stay the steady.
September 21, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well franklyn, I take comfort from the fact that Obama stays steady.
He's so cool he changes the weather when he sticks his head out the window -
September 21, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
September 21, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think one of those little telling signs about the two candidates is that McCain-Palin require people to get tickets for their events and Obama (he doesn't have to have Biden on his hip) is open to the general public.
McCain Palin in Florida today. Tomorrow they're in PA, where they will bus people into the event site, and they want everyone to wear red. What's up with that. First the brown shirts, now the red shirts?
September 21, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
O man, that's weird. It's like Mao's Brigade.
I have to say this and I hate to because initially it sounds so depressing; but I don't think it is, ultimately. Acamus, do you remember the '04 campaign? McLame is campaigning exactly like Bush did - only he's really doing it on crutches; it doesn't have the same feel at all. But Bush didn't have open campaign rallies either. He had hand-picked crowds; he lied about how many showed up every single time - on and on right down the line. This is the '04 campaign after being shot in the face by Cheney. I can remember thinking in '04 - "this is surreal - why isn't the press talking about this?"
It would depress the hell out of me thinking this campaign was going to repeat '04 all down the line. It's impossible to see it that way, however. This time everyone is pointing at the Emperor and saying: "Hey, that dude is naked and goddamn is he ugly!"
September 21, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
They're playing the '04 playbook to a tee. But thank god this isn't 2004, Obama isn't Kerry, and McCain isn't Bush (don't know why but he has that Bill Clinton ability to connect with a large swath of the populace, although not so much now).
I couldn't believe that Bush could win in 2004. But they were able to squeak out a victory. I think it's important to realize it was a squeaker at time that national security was the big issue. Now it's the economy. It would explain why NC is tied in the polls and Indiana is in play.
September 21, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't either - Kerry was drawing large crowds.
'But since that election, acamus, I sure have had a lot of people express their complete lack of enthusiasm for Kerry from the start to me. Obama is absolutely not John Kerry. Plouffe - sweet jesus - is so not Terry McAuliffe!
And the Times They Are A-Changing.
George Will? I really think I'm in parallel universe - Cheney let go of the leash that he and Rove snapped on the press in 2001, exactly 2 weeks after 9-11. I remember it - I remember the change in the press; it was overnight.
And Rove stole the '04 election and I don't think that there is any way in hell they can get away with that again. They can try, but I just think the anger and frustration level in this country will be crossed and it's going to boil over into not good things if they pull this shit again.
September 21, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
There were a lot of people I knew who were for Kerry because he wasn't Bush, just as McCain has those who are for him because he isn't Obama.
It seems that as each day goes by, McCain's image takes a hit. When George Will goes after him, one knows that the fiscally conservative, socially moderate Repubs are slowly moving over to Obama.
September 21, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jesus hell just froze over, George freaking hack Will just called Mccain "Unpresidential" erm wow
September 21, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just fucking fainted! holyyyyyyyy....{whump}
September 21, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
And something to help restore one's faith in the American people: article from Flordia newspaper about how Palin is pushing the undecideds into Obama's camp.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article818181.ece
September 21, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for that.
September 21, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
WSJ & now Will this is an easy ad for Obama and it nails Mccain with folks from his own camp
September 21, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena that is really huge if Will is going that way then it is not long before MSM jumps on bandwagon. I think Mccain is one bad debate from this being over and Obama winning with ease
September 21, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now, now, she's clearly run the economy of Alaska just fine...oh that's right, they were sitting on a bucket of oil when the price went to $130...kinda hard for things not to work out ok if the lower 48 are shipping their money to her...sorta like in Saudi Arabia right now...
September 21, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
brokaw is a fucking idiot.
he just said that neither campaign last week had an upside due to the financial crisis.
no, tom, there WAS an upside and obama didn't put out a plan because it would be irresponsible to do so.
September 21, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Brokaw is one of the Repub's biggest tools for the Repubs, caught in The Greatest Generation fog.
September 21, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't like Brokaw right from his start. But I had no idea he would metamorph right into the most pompous asshole imaginable.
I just don't like him at all - he's so fucking self-important that it oozes out of his pores.
September 21, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
He thinks he's entitled to Elder Newsman without really earning it. Publically admonishing his co-workers is bad form. He resists the changes that are happening in the MSM at his peril. It makes him a bit of an idiot.
The vacancy of his ethics comes with the programmed "we have a horserace" mentality.
This is a rare election absent "sides." Moral failure doesn't earn a "side."
September 21, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brokaw is a disgrace. He should not be the host of the town hall debate, period.
September 21, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
In other news Mr. "M friends" "I will fight for the American people" has 13 freaking cars, 13! Obama has one. Mccain is the biggest sham I have ever seen he built his rep totally around a press myth beneath the surface is a bitter, elite, callous curmudgeon that is a bigger threat to this country than McCarthy
September 21, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
13 cars?
Fuck - why hasn't McLame been featured on MTV Cribs? He sounds like a rapper with all those houses and cars -
September 21, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
MTV Cribs? I want to see him on Pimp My Ride. McCain and Xzibit having a conversation, that would be priceless.
September 21, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where did George Will say this?
September 21, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
ABC Rhis Week
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/21/abc-panel-tears-into-mcca_n_128055.html
The whole, painful, episode crested with Will leveling an even harsher blow.
"John McCain showed his personality this week," said the writer and pundit, "and made some of us fearful."
George Will for Obama?
September 21, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did he say the fundamentals are strong?
Bwahahahaha.
September 21, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah Paulson has such a strong following with middle America. They just hang on every word he says.
September 21, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
And if McCain is hanging his hope for victory on Americans believing he was talking about the workers when he said the fundamentals were strong then he has what they call false hope.
September 21, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
you are so far behind the curve, fogu, you are now to the right of George Will.
freakin idjit.
September 21, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're posting on election night. I want to see the fogu2 reaction to the election of Barack H. Obama. Will it be sudden silence? A tantrum? Drunken babbling?
September 21, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or screaming like DemBillC "but but he's the Antichrist."
September 21, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, Fogu demonstrated lots of class when Obama accepted the nomination.
He's just reverted to form.
Deep down there, I think he actually does have a soul.
September 21, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Knowing what anyone with internet access should know about Palin and McCain, to be on their side says there is doubt that his or her soul is still intact.
September 21, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the wording:
It's the McLame Pivot: "fundamentals" suddenly equals "the American worker" and yer not gonna bad mouth the Murikan worker, are ya?
It's a way to keep the happy mask on without getting laughed off the stage.
September 21, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Calling Jon Stewart, calling Jon Stewart: I have a ready made vid for you - McLame on MTV Cribs with his 7 houses and 13 cars.
Come on TDS writers - that's a good one - ;)
September 21, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey all. In case you missed it yesterday, fivethirtyeight.com's Nate Silver has done an analysis of the cell phone effect, which when accounted for gives Obama 2.8 more points in some areas (flips VA and Ohio and turns FLA into a tie).
Go here and scroll down to yesterday:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
September 21, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
When you have seven homes, that's a lot of garages to fill. After the fuss over the number of residences owned by the two presidential nominees, NEWSWEEK looked into the candidates' cars. And based on public vehicle-registration records, here's the score. John and Cindy McCain: 13. Barack and Michelle Obama: one.
Taken directly from Newsweek article...ffing unreal
September 21, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jeez - the Obamas just have one car. Wow - I guess that works when you live in a city with good public transportation. I haven't had to share a car with someone since I was in my 20s.
September 21, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
hee hee
No car since 1996! Total savings? $75,000 and counting!
(dance a twirling dance)
September 21, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah rub it in. There's no way you can live in the west without a car. I could live in Dallas without one though it would be difficult. But I couldn't live out here without one.
There are miles upon miles upon miles of still open country out here.
September 21, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mccain and his sad and sorry numbers:
House 7
Cars 13
Years in DC 26
Age 72
Flip Flops 70 (thanks Steve Benen)
Years in Iraq 100
Middle class income 5 million and below
Keating : 5
Shoes $500 bucks
Bridge to nowhere lies 36
POW mentions ...erm lost track at 1,000 or so
Middle class tax cut 300 bucks v Obama 1,000 bucks
Lobbyists in lead role in campaign 7
Mccain must abhor numbers little wonder the guy has no clue on economics or any other bread and butter issue that face 95% of Americans.
September 21, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's great material for all kinds of ads (Obama's and 527's).
September 21, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I've learned in the last week.
McCain is a garbage in garbage out leader. Meaning whoever is the last guy to tell him something he'll think it's true and act on it without forming his own opinion.Bad judgement.
Bush was this same type of leader. Wanted to be in charge and make the decisions but didn't know really how to disemminate the information so ultimatley got manipulted. Also didn't like to be told he was wrong, because he wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed . I've known those types in my life.
Now Palin will be ready. She's not yet. they have to fill her with all the empty rhetoric first. She's not capable of having her own opinions yet, they have to give her them.Perfect, another empty suit on a hanger.
Obama. He gets his advisors in room. (Republican and democrat).Listens to thier positions , then comes out with his balanced judgement.He's getting heat from the McCain camp that he hasn't been quick enough with his plan. Although we see how well that worked with all the differing positions they've had to take last week.
One man is being told what to say.
The other man is saying what he thinks needs to be told.
Who would you rather have for a leader?
September 21, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very nice. You should post this as your own blog and get some comments.
September 21, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well-said. Given this, Sarahcuda is indeed ready on day one.
September 21, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love "The Raft of the Medusa," dude.
;)
September 21, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a tactical sense I believe Obama wants to make it competitive to force Mccain to play D there and waste resources. This means less resources in areas Mccain must compete and strategically that means spreading himself to thin. If that is the case PA & MI become harder and harder to get for Mccain as after a while he will not have enough stiff fingers to put in the cracks of his cannot lose states. I mean look at the polls, VA, MO, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Indiana, NC, nevada all must win states for Mccain and with exception of Missouri (only 4 points last poll) they are all trending towards Obama. The only reason the RCP average in VA isnt tied or Obama a slight lead is because of a CNU poll that is frankly the worst poll I have ever seen. It had Mccain up by 9, however, the internals of tha poll are ffing unreal. They had get this 3% of the total vote being made of folks under 30. 3%!!!!! The total in 04 was 17%. Then it gets worse in 04 AA vote was 22% of vote in this shambolic poll it is 10%!!!! If you calculate the poll with 04 numbers Obama would be ahead by 3 to 4 points in line with Survey USA poll.
In NC for a while it looked like Mccain was trending away then Monday happened. Since then the largest lead in any poll I have seen is 6 points and the other two tied. In Ohio every poll since Monday has shown Obama jsut a bit ahead or tied, that Newspaper poll out today was done prior to meltdown. In Florida all polls since Monday ahve shown a tie or one to two point Mccain lead. In Colorado Obama is in lead by a smidgen or ten points (likely outlier) so lets say 3 to 4.
New Mexico is jsut about off the map and so is Iowa. In Indiana a state Bush won by 20! Mccain has a 2 to 3 point lead and given the underestimation of the ground game in the primary I am confident that lead is tenuous at best. In Missouri from a constant 6 to 7 point lead it is now 4, if it decreases more again remember primary undrestimation of ground game when Obama came from way abck and snatched it when some networks had called it for HRC. PA is trending back to Obama and so is MI despite Detroit News poll. Minn and Wisc need some work but they have a reliable Dem base and again no polls since Monday on them so I think we will see those trend back given Monday's events.
All in all I firmly believe Mccain is one average first debate from being done. Obama needs to keep his cool, say economy 150 times on Friday and then add a few more
September 21, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The topic of the first debate is foreign policy, but I think the cost of the Iraq war will now have more resonance now that we have this bailout.
September 21, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also the issue of trade (Nafta, China) will touch directly into the economy.
September 21, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given the $700 billion blank check that has serious problems means there really isn't any other option than to discuss the economy during the debate, robbing McLie of his favored (in his head) topic.
I predict Obama will reach in and take both domestic and foreign affairs away from this withering monster in one fell swoop.
September 21, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
A withering monster crying out "Surge Surge Surge."
Likely McCain's anger issue will rear its head if he believes he's not being treated with deference.
September 21, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
In first paragrapgh of my serpentine spiel I was referring to Obama forcing mcFOS to play D in NC ...
September 21, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woke up to ABC ripping a new asshole into the McLiar campaign, though how there was room for another asshole in there defies physics.
The best ABC line was:
'"When I say age," he [Donaldson] explained, "I don't know the difference between finding your talking points and not delivering the right ones, we have seen him do this frequently but this last week was the worst. Between two stops in Florida, as you say, he had to revise his thinking about what he wanted to say about the economy, wanted to feel the pain suddenly than say everything is great."'
And then came this gem from Alkaska:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-troopergate21-2008sep21,0,2158301.story?page=1
Palin's future grows more dim by the hour...I love how we can just cross our arms, and refuse a subpeona. "Thanks, but no thanks."
It for the Sarahcudas of the world for which I favor a return to the stockades.
September 21, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
If trooper gate keeps going this way, Alaska might become a swing state.
And the ABC show is I believe a sign that the moderate Republicans are going to start moving over to Obama as this campaign continues.
September 21, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
She could have made it all go away by cooperating. We would not be talking about it.
There is really too much time left for McLie. His nature assures this will continue. I would be willing to bet Hollis French has enough goods without the subpeonas.
I also do not think McAncient is not making the campaign's decisions. It's such a clusterfuck, the direct result of swapping intellect with magic-thinking.
September 21, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those who were to testify were those on her side. So French can release his report which won't be favorable, and say the other side refused to offer evidence. Of course, it will be attacked by the Repubs as partisan, etc. but it will be out there being talked about, and causing a distraction. No good can come from this for McCain.
September 21, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only the McLame campaign Repugs, apparently, however. Cause the Alaskan Repugs were the ones who started the investigation. Now they're upset with her.
She is a "divisive figure."
:)
September 21, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's my favorite part of that article:
September 21, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is a polarizing politician. Just what this country doesn't need.
September 21, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty bizarre coda on that article:
Um, I believe that was meant to be "American Idol" of politics. Somebody's an idiot here: either Ramras, the journalist or both if either of 'em thought that likening her to a gameshow contestant was a compliment.
Supremely apt as the comparison is, of course.
September 21, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you - LOL. I read that sentence in the story three times and I kept thinking "That doesn't really sound like it was meant as a compliment."
September 21, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Comment of the day
From Obama surrogate on Wolf Blitzer a few minutes ago:
'A bag of Fruit loops has more information on it than Senator McCains Economic Plan'.
Priceless
September 21, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
WHO SAID THAT!? That was HILARIOUS.
September 21, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is wonderful. Thank you for posting it. Do you know who said that.
OMG - a bag of ffffing Fruit Loops!!!!
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLL1
September 21, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it looks like we're going to win, don't stop kicking ass. Don't ease up on registering voters (Mich. deadline is Oct. 6, please make a not of when it is in your state). Don't decide you don't really need to go work the phones to GOTV.
Lets make this a LANDSLIDE! We don't want four years of Republicans bitching about how Obama only got a per cent more than McCain so Americans really are divided on our new president, he really doesn't have a mandate, blah blah blah.
September 21, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second'd. At this point it is all about registration and GOTV.
September 21, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Third'd. A landslide is possible, even if will be tough. Let's make it happen.
September 21, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that Shrub went on national TV with the height of arrogance after being selected prez by the Supreme Court and said "I have a mandate!". So if Obama wins by just 1 electoral vote or even if it goes to the House of Representatives, he should say "I have a mandate *and* a landslide!".
September 21, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gallup Daily Tracker:
Obama 49% - McCain 45%.
Discuss.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110554/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leading-McCain-Points.aspx
September 21, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
With a little cyber snooping I found some info regarding the real reason Palin fired Monegan. Surely this woman couldn't have been vetted properly.
September 21, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is actually good and bad news. Good news is that the momentum is in Obama's favor. The bad news is that if his polls numbers slip even a little after the debate the narrative will be he didn't connect with anyone. Standards folks, standards.
September 21, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
But why anticipate an anxiety when you don't know, I don't know and no one else knows what will happen, theone?
September 21, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh just discussing different possibilities. I am looking at poll narrative viewing from the press. One narrative will be momentum, the other will focus around who won or lost the debate. The polls will aid that narrative so them swinging one way or another by a few points could be a problem or not. Time will tell though, I know O is preparing HARD for those debates and I hope he does well.
September 21, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a thought - but if Sen. Obama and his campaign can play their cards right over the &700B "bailout" issue shortly coming up in Washington (a VERY tricky play, but a golden opportunity nonetheless): they will have a chance to put this election away once and for all.
The awful details of the Administration's trillion-dollar giveaway plan - no reforms, no regulations, no review, etc - just MAY be able to jar Joe and Jane Homeowner Out There into the shocked realization that the Republicans do NOT give a good flying shit about them or their economic problems: only the interests of Wall Street and the Big Banks (personalizable in the "golden parachutes" even the least sucessful execs "earn"). And that "fiscal responsibility", for the GOP, is just a bad joke.
If Barack Obama can figure out a way to get on the most sympathetic side of THIS argument (i.e., the traditional Democratic concern for the "little guy") - he'll probably win in a Rooseveltian-level landslide.
September 21, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to need a landslide just to overcome the VoteKill Poison being sprayed by the Refumigans. Diebold-icide can flip 10-15% of the vote in selected Swing States. Voter Supressinone 2-4-D disenfranchises 74% of undesirables, keeping voter lines pest free.
Combined with their ability to produce more fertilizer per candidate than an Iowa Hog Plant, these guys are not going without a heavy dose of pollution and poison.
Get ready. We're going to have to fight all the way to January to keep these bastards from stealing another election.
September 21, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they're going to ask for $700 billion, they can get it from raising taxes on those making over $250K a year and the oil companies. They created this crisis. They should (but won't) fix it. That's what I just wrote, among other things, to my other Senator - Durbin. (I'm in Chicago area)
I also said I would like to know where he, Dodd, Schumer and the others have been for the last two years since they regained a majority in the Senate. Dodd and Schumer are both on this Banking Committee, Dodd as Chairman!!! What do these committees actually do? Where's Dodd been? He went down early in the primaries - What's he been doing? Obviously Schumer needs to patronize Wall Street. I guess Dodd does as well since he serves neighboring Connecticut, home of innumerable Wall Street CEO's and all those hedge fund managers.
This entire crisis can only benefit Obama. And I certainly wouldn't mind if Dodd and Schumer were replaced with real Democrats. Schumer is the one who brought us Musakey as AG.
There needs to be a TPM thread on this $700 billion issue - I guess that will happen on Monday.
Although the debate is on foreign policy, it's really tied into economic policy due to the war in Iraq and the amount of US debt carried by China, the mideast emirates group (a bunch of Arab oil trillionaires), etc. It's really the worse financial crisis ever for the US. When all these think tank people finish their week-end analysis and start publishing their reports this week, I think they will agree - This is the worst.
September 21, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Bernie Sanders (Senate, Independent, VT)
"The Middle Class Must Not be Forced to Bail Out Wall Street Greed":
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-bernie-sanders/the-middle-class-must-not_b_128046.html
September 21, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink