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Obama Maintains Lead In Today's National Polls
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with Obama's lead over John McCain basically unchanged from yesterday:
• Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was ahead 48%-44%.
• Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 48%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 46%-42%.
• Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-43%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.2%-45.2%, essentially the same as yesterday's lead of 47.9%-45.1%
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One of the tidbits I saw from the Marist poll earlier today regarding Ohio was that most of the voters were saying that they were unlikely to change to their mind about who they were going to vote for.
This is is that time of the election when people start to lock in on a candidate. If there is a time to start shooting up the polls, this is it.
September 19, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep acamus, however, I still think there is more movement to come. Obama is owning this issue and the state polls imho are not fully caught up to it yet. I expect more movement in Ohio, Fla, Minn, Wisc, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, Pa and yep even NC.
September 19, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, at this point I think Obama has the advantage in scooping up the majority of the undecideds. I think he has brought Kerry's states back into the fold, along with CO, NM and VA most likely. Florida is very much in play as is Nevada. Indiana and NC could be real surprises. Not feeling optimistic about MO.
September 19, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am more optimistic about Missouri than the campaign. Claire McCaskill pulled out a victory under similar circumstances. I do have to admit that Rush Limbaugh helped her a lot. Charlie Gibson has done a lot to dampen the evangelical enthusiasm for Sarah Palin. In any event, I have never seen Democrats so organized as they are around here.
September 19, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win Missouri. I have had lots of calls from Obama's office here in St. Louis.
September 20, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think expand his lead I'd more acurate.
September 19, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
is more accurate.
September 19, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kerry states + IA (in the bag) + NM (also likely) + CO/VA/FL/OH (pick your favorite) will do it. We are at match point.
September 19, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
A beautiful thing.
September 19, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
As if IA being a sure bet needed any more corroboration: ?SUSA: Obama 54, McCain 43. Obama wins Iowa women by 20 points, wins all age demographics, leads among independents by 9, and trails among regular church-goers by only six.
September 19, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
now that sounds good.
September 19, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't even wish to be even in the slightest bit negative toward one state or another, but I must kindly acknowledge that I fucking hate Ohio with their godawful Talibangelicals and Ernest Angely and the rural and redneck Bush vote and the entire utterly insufferable jurisdiction. It's odious Talibangelical state motto is, "With God, all things are possible."
We are generally assuming that Obama loses this horrific religio state, and we can win without that via NM and either Colorado or Virginia, is that a fair understanding?
Can Obama still win if he loses both Florida and this noxious Buckeye State?
September 19, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has many paths to victory that don't involve Ohio or Florida. The likeliest scenario, I think, is New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado.
September 19, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that. I do appreciate it.
September 19, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excuse me, "Fuckeye." Sorry for missing that.
September 19, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but if we lose Pennsylvania it's game over boys and girls.
Robert
BTW Smirk', you really seem to have it in for those Ohioans. I mean, they always speak well of you.
September 19, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, thanks, and it ain't reciprocated as you kindly noted. :)
September 19, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to be annoying, but without some religious people, the Democrats have no chance of ever winning any election. The day they become the party of the agnostic, then that's the day they'll loose relevance in this religious country.
I know that you're speaking out against Ohio's crazies, but it sounds to me like you're speaking out against a lot more.
September 19, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of our great problems is trying to point out how wacked out the religious nutcases are to the average religious person. They think that because the call themselves Christians that they are close in beliefs. Nothing could be further from the truth, but as an atheist I have no credibility with even the only nominaly religious about the insanity of their coreligionists.
September 19, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right that you have to appeal to religios in USA to win and to me, Obama is smart to find dog-whistling bible-thumpers to toss biblical references into discussions to try to scoop up those voters. And you're right that I'm frustrated that this is necessary and particularly intolerant of those of religious zealots who somehow imagine that they have something over religious zealots of other religions.
September 19, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a pointless exercise.
If I add three pieces to dog shit to one piece of gold do I get something resembling silver??
September 19, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your right Economides, a pointless exercise indeed. I mean, why would anyone even try? After all, we all know gold is worth far more than silver.
(No, I don't plan on quitting my day job, why?)
Robert
September 19, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Scott Rass can't bring himself to give Obama the lead.
September 19, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is also slowing regaining his lead in the electoral count projections, but they are lagging about a week behind the national polls. There's a good graph at http://election-projection.net
September 19, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a summary of 82 different projection sites.
http://3bluedudes.com/?p=562
and the actual database. 82 of them!
http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm
September 19, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama's numbers are going down again. intrade and hubdun both have McCain's odds going up since the announcement of the bailout.
September 19, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Out of curiosity, what is the difference between maintaining a lead, and clinging to a lead?
September 19, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the lead is very small, yet is maintained for a period of time, the candidate is "clinging" to it.
If the lead is slightly more substantial, and is maintained for a period time, the given candidate is "maintaining" it. ;-)
Robert
September 19, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink