Obama Maintains Big Lead In Today's Tracking Polls
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today -- the first day on which we've gotten three-day tracking polls that were taken entirely after Friday's debate. Barack Obama continues to hold a big lead:
• Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 47%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 51%-42%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 49.8%-43.3%, virtually the same as yesterday's 49.8%-43.1% lead.
Um, they are exactly the same. One could even say identical.
September 30, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps there is a difference before the numbers are rounded.
September 30, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only it is a "virtual" tie. It's an "actual" tie!
September 30, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the numbers was typed in wrong, should have been 43.3%. It got messed up when I adjusted something on my spreadsheet. It's been fixed.
Thanks.
September 30, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Kleefeld Clings to Math Explanation."
Just kidding. Love ya, kiddo.
September 30, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hard to argue that 49.8% - 43.1% is not "virtually the same" as 49.8% - 43.1%...I think you are on safe ground with that one, Eric.
September 30, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!!!!!!
if it moved 1/10th of one percent, you'd hear about it.
September 30, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is also the first day Obama was ever above 50% in Rasmussen.
You have five weeks to the day to close these gaps, Grandpa. Good luck!
September 30, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
That isn't so hard. He can just have another party convention, right?
September 30, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or have Brit Hume sit with a camera beside Sarah as she bags another moose from the air.
September 30, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read somewhere that he was considering another "suspension" of his campaign to swoop in and fix things (again). Haha, yeah, that worked so well the first time. The man is clearly losing his grip on rational thought.
September 30, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone care to bet on the last point in time in which McCain *did* act rationally?
September 30, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Virginia Beach speech in 2000 when he said that the Christian Right had hijacked his party....
September 30, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
No I thought he hit 51 on Rasmussen a couple of days ago - am I wrong?
September 30, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right (as always). Actually Obama got to 51% today!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
September 30, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
But he was at 50% the last 4 days up to today...
September 30, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok - I wasn't right I guess. I thought CT had mentioned that two days ago because there are always people who want to get upset that he's not broken 50.
Well he did, whether it was 2 days ago or now, so it doesn't matter I guess.
LOL!
September 30, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama hit 51% once in Rasmussen - I believe it was right around the time of his overseas trip. But he didn't sustain it and drop below 50 pretty quickly. This is sustained 50+ polling in multiple trackers.
September 30, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi -- long-time listener, first-time caller.
Obama reached 51% once before in Rasmussen on September 2.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
September 30, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but... he STILL hasn't broken 52% -- so, why can't he close the deal???
And and McCain's a POW! And a freakin' MAV-RICK!!1!
September 30, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look @ the Indiana poll on the right side of the screen. McCain is only three points within the margin-of-error. I mean, McSame can't even keep Indiana in his reach.
September 30, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Besides the economy, the more Palin moments people get to see from McCain,the better for Obama's poll number.
McCain is having a few Palin moments of his own in the last few days. One came this morning on Morning Joe when Mika asked how he was going to defend his "erratic" role in the bailout. His response: "I said we need 30,000 additional troops over there when it was most unpopular thing to say in Iraq."
Compare with Palin:
"Ultimately what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about health care reform that is needed to help soar our economy helping the and oh it's got to be about job creation too soaring up our economy and putting it back on the right track, so health care reform and reducing taxes......all those things under the umbrella of job creation this bailout is part of that."
McCain-Palin make a good couple in the political dark comedy they are staging without even realizing it.
September 30, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
No shit - he actually answered that with a total non sequitur about Iraq?
Really?
Sweet jesus - he's nuts.
September 30, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everytime I see McPalin, I get this weird "out of universe" feeling.
In my head I am thinking: This just cannot be for real. The republicans just aren't even pretending to hide anymore that they are idiots and care nothing about actually running a government.
September 30, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
In addition to the Kerry-won states in '04 and IA & NM, as most of you know, Obama needs one of the following:
FL
CO
VA
OH
NC
NV
IN
Which will it be? Any strong opinions out there? Does today's pole re: FL, with the other ?s re: economy etc... change your view of FL?
September 30, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
All of the above.
September 30, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love you!
September 30, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, taken.
September 30, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virtually all of the above.
September 30, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
not gonna happen.... in fact, after CO, I can't say I'm v confident about any other state. I'd include NH in that category too.
September 30, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's understandable to be pessimistic in light of 2000 and 2004. Naysayers have to realize how different this year is, both in terms of the candidates and the electorate.
September 30, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if pessimistic is fair. I think the polls we're seeing now are coming at a v bad time on a lot of fronts for the mccain camp... and some of these states are either dead even or mccain is still ahead.
You don't have to convince me of the difference between the candidates and the electorate. I think folks are assuming somehow that voters in some of 'swing' districts in some of these states are going to all of a sudden become rational etc.
Overwhelming factors against obama (and there's nothing we can do about either of these): 1. he's black, and 2. the other guy has a woman on his ticket.
We can simply hope that woman continues to be a liability on the trail, in interviews and in the debate... but some context to these recent numbers should not be ignored. Things are bad for mccain right now and the map doesn't look too, too bad for them considering.
September 30, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with even the current polls is that they are weighted according to distributions of voters seen in previous elections. Everything indicates a different, younger electorate. That's why I think the race is not as close as many believe.
Selzer is the one polling firm that is being proactive on these issues. Their results are very illuminating.
September 30, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a good post on 538.com about Selzer:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann-selzer-on-youth-minority-turnout.html
September 30, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
v insightful. thx.
September 30, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wiki the 1932 election - that is one crazy electoral map.
Back when the Northeast was the bastion of Wealthy Conservatives. Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont - all of them red.
The margins weren't by much between 1 and 2 points, but still.
My how things do change.
September 30, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And now we know which pollster is NOT weighting by age groups, as Selzer mentioned.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html
Surprise, surprise. It's Battleground, the only poll still showing McCain with a nationwide lead.
September 30, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
VA seems almost certain. VA & CO. I'm less hopeful of OH & FL.
September 30, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
For Ohio, this story is very important:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gmJpgsrR27lwSUQ24_WSSrU0W-JwD93H2NHO3
September 30, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope so re: VA. I work in NoVa and spend my lunch hour and an hour in the evening calling for OB and Warner through obama's VA Neighbors calling Neighbors thingy... and, while obviously anecdotal, it seems like the vast, vast majority of folks I've talked with are v much undecided. I'm talking like 8 to 1 (1 being for either candidate).
So, VA is def not even close to being a done deal, IMO.
September 30, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm now viewing mcShame as a kind of "suicide bomber" of the electoral process. He keeps destroying himself in the process of trying to destroy Obama. And as he destroys himself over and over, he's taking his party with him, the nation with him, and the world.
McSuicideBomber.
September 30, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Intrade now has Obama's electoral votes at 353.
Astounding!
September 30, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most interesting poll for me today was the Georgia Senate, where incumbent GOP Senator Chambliss is only 2 points ahead. This is the same SOB who relentlessly slandered veteran/double-amputee Max Cleland in 2002 in possibly the nastiest campaign ever. I would love to see this POS get his desserts.
September 30, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oo me too.
September 30, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW, that outlier Battleground daily tracker poll that oversamples (big time) old folks (well, they don't weight for age, per Nate Silver) and kept showing a McCain +2 lead through yesterday. Today it's showing a +2 Obama lead.
September 30, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isnt that the one paid for by RCP -- aka Republican Commissioned Polling?
September 30, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess yet another day when you don't want to wake up, look in the mirror and say I'm John McCain.
O' wrapped a stump speech in Reno, NV. The content is a little different from the one we heard in the last few weeks. It sounds closer to the one from the early primaries.
A lot more inspiration, a call to rise up in times of calamity and crisis.
September 30, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love his inspiration! GoBama!
September 30, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
The L-word (not that kind)
September 30, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
don't get too excited, the wedding at the trailer park will surely cut into the lead.
September 30, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
September 30, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just gave $250 to the Obama campaign. I will give another $250 next month...
Hope is raising and change for the good is coming...
Obama 08/12
September 30, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is only with a very guarded optimism that I recall how close the polls were between Ronald Reagan and Fritz Mondale in the 80s (yes...I'm that old; in fact old enough to remember seeing Eisenhower deliver speeches on TV -- but I was very, very young then):
One poll (Newsweek) showed Mondale beating Reagan by 18 points not too long before the actual election.
But that poll (and quite a few others) did not gauge the depth of new "Reagan Democrat" or religious-right support. Reagan beat Mondale in a landslide.
Don't read me wrong: I believe Reagan was one of the worst things visited upon this republic, since he started the whole slippery slope that leads directly to the quagmire we are in today. They were not kidding when they call the movement he started a revolution.
That he won isn't the point, but that the pollsters totally missed polling a large sector of the populace brought out by his (snake oil) charisma.
At least we now have a choice whose charisma does not appear to arise from some dark netherworld. And I don't mean McShame: That one has a hole in his soul.
September 30, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
re Newsweek poll in 1984, Mondale over Reagan by 18 points:
I can't find the actual poll, but there's a post that claims that this occured "the day the Democratic convention ended." That would place the poll in mid-July 1984.
The post is here (top message):
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2036517/posts
But then there's this article from NY Times from September 17, 1984, which has Reagan beating Mondale by the same 18 points in a later Newsweek poll:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0DE2DA1038F934A2575AC0A962948260
So the Mondale-over-Reagan by 18 points poll was reportedly in mid-July, while the Reagan-over-Monday by 18 points poll was in mid-September.
Thus, I think the pollsters didn't miss the snake-oil 6 weeks before the election.
September 30, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quick followup -- found a (paid-subscription) article in the Daily Sitka [Alaska[ Sentinel from July 25, 1984 that states:
"... a Newsweek poll taken late last week showed Mondale ahead by a statistically insignificant two points."
http://www.newspaperarchive.com/PdfViewerTags.aspx?img=86289062
I'm starting to think there there was no 18-point lead that Mondale had over Reagan, at least in any of Newsweek's polls, but rather that someone had once misakenly reversed the names; it was actually Reagan with the 18-point lead, and it was in mid-September.
September 30, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard that early voting is starting in some states now. With Obama up in so many polls, that HAS to go in his favor right now regardless of what happens down the stretch.
Woo-hoo!
September 30, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the undecided voter who is most dangerous, and those aren't the people who are going to vote until the end. The large window of early voting will particularly help the lower income and underserved populations who have a harder time obtaining transportation to reach their voting locations. These may be people who haven't voted for a long time or who are not counted in these polls, and they may be the difference in the end.
September 30, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of missing a voting block, my home state of Missouri, who has called the election correctly every time since 1904 except for 1956, has been left out of the battleground states.
We've got big cities full of Democrats and lots of rural areas littered with Republicans. We're within 1 percentage point as of Friday http://www.kansascity.com/445/story/814879.html.
So goes Missouri, so goes the nation.
September 30, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watch out, Cheney's gonna try to start a war to get people's minds off the economy and back onto security.
September 30, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I ignore changes of 1 or 2 points/day in these polls. Even if the preferences of the electorate remain absolutely fixed, the results of different samples of that population will dither around the 'actual' number because of random errors in the sampling. If a change lasts for several days then it's real.
September 30, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will the seers and pundits deduce any obvious trends in the states with early voting? It could be over before its over based on who shows up to vote early and in overwhelming numbers.
He who wins gets there "fustest with the mostest".
-Nathan Bedford Forrest
September 30, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
just read this on a uk paper about the election talking with Obama camp
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3089433/Barack-Obamas-top-team-believes-he-can-win-White-House-by-a-landslide.html
says it all for me the youth vote is being big time underestimated and this could be a land slide
September 30, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink