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Obama Hangs On To Three-Point Lead In Today's National Tracking Polls
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with Barack Obama holding on to a narrow lead over John McCain:
• Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, they were tied 48%-48%
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 47%-43%.
• Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-43%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.0%-44.9%, up slightly from his lead yesterday of 47.7%-45.3%.
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Wait. "Hangs on"? Has Eric been hitting up the thesaurus?
September 24, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Better than "clings to"!
September 24, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
How 'bout "maintains"?
September 24, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
"sustains"
September 24, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
has iron grip on
September 24, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would point out that McCain maintains and hangs onto his constant 44 or so per cent.
September 24, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's Three-Point Lead Grows Slightly In Today's National Tracking Polls.
Would be the headline I would of used.
September 24, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I'm just glad he didn't say something like "ekes out" or add the word "desperately".
September 24, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another 24 hours, another fraction of a point "movement."
I may faint.
September 24, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a fan: ♧ or ♤
September 24, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The surprise here is the Rasmussen tracker. While one of the more dependable polls, they have just started to show some movement in Obama's direction. Do they do a rolling average as well? If so, subsequent polls could show even higher margins.
September 24, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Rasmussen's analysis page:
That would suggest that, Rasmussen's numbers spread for yesterday's polling is even higher than what we see right now (since they include a tied day and a day with a 1 point advantage). Back of the napkin calculation is a 5 point spread in Obama's favor for yesterday.
September 24, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Barack Steady @ +3"
September 24, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like a ship's crier: "Barack Steady @ +3"
September 24, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aye, and a school of Palin off the starboard bow! Haul away!
September 24, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric- you are a cheeky monkey.
That said, I think that BHO will hang on to a 2-3 point lead until the election, and I hope that Dem enthusiasm and his ground game will seal it up.
September 24, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
cheeky monkey, arsenal badge, wtf?
I lived in Finsbury park for a while - arsenal fans are all pr!cks (I hardly ever had a parking space).
:-p
September 24, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't get too excited yet folks -- Debate is coming up. I have a feeling media is HYPING Obama so as to RAISE his expectations on Friday's debate and lower McCains.
September 24, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO! The facts are just the opposite. Plouffe and Obama keep the poll expectations low and everyone on earth knows by now that the expectations for Sarah Palin are somewhere below sea level.
September 24, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, on NPR this morning they were saying voters had - by a margin of 54 to 37 (or thereabouts) - higher expectations of Obama than McCain.
I don't really agree with this as I think expectations are equally low for both guys, but nevertheless, NPR is reporting on it.
September 24, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course voters have higher expectations for Obama! Voters always have high expectations for him, because he has set a very high standard. The great thing is, time after time he has met or exceeded those expectations.
I agree that the expectations game does not create an even playing field for the media to report on, but Obama himself has said time and again that this won't be easy.
The bar has been higher for Obama in almost every facet of this campaign. He can not just be average, he has to be exceptional.
Of course Obama wouldn't be where he is today if he wasn't exceptional.
September 24, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow! not clinging. has the world stopped spinning that we get a different word today?
September 24, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's up with New Hampshire anyway?
September 24, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I told you people, I am watching it from my bedroom window. It will go for Obama.
September 24, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL. You sound like the Irish guy in Braveheart.
"It's my island!"
September 24, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I saw the liberal trending while I was living up there. I assume it hasn't dissipated in the past week, haha!
September 24, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe you. Hey, I should know. My car climbed Mt. Washington!
September 24, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahaha! I have seen SO MANY of those bumper stickers! That's awesome.
September 24, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coming from someone who lived in VT for seven years and went to high school in New Hampshire... I have no freaking clue. New Hampshire is, to say the least, frakked. They've had quite a local trend towards more liberal policies in recent years (one of the few states now that allows civil unions or gay marriage). But with national politics, they're just whacked. On the one hand, they love McCain over there, but on the other, they recognize how much the Republicans have screwed things up. They also have a ton of people from outside the state who have moved there.
It's a huge vacationing and tourist state. Wolfboro, NH, for example, proclaims itself as the first tourist town in America, and is where President Sarkozy took a vacation after winning the election last year.
Eh... I could keep rambling on. But the point is that NH is a tricky one. It's hard to classify it. Probably why it's one of the most unpredictable swing states.
September 24, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just don't know if they'll cut off their independent nose to spite their conservative face.
or vice versa.
September 24, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's quite possible, and I think more than likely.
September 24, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the last 4 NH polls 2 showed McCain + 2, and 2 showed Obama + 6.
Kerry won the state in 2004 and I haven't seen any data saying that NH is all of a sudden turning more red then blue. Kerry did win it by a small margin but its a pretty good bet that Obama will win NH unless there is a major change in the dynamics.
September 24, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
(Frantically knocking wood)
This feels very much like Carter/Reagan 1980. The polls show a soft 15-20% of the electorate. I think they're ready to break for the unknown change guy, and if (knocking furiously) Obama is seen to hold his own on Friday night, on McSame's "signature" issue, this thing will be all but over.
And we won't be Georgians on 11/5..(but we probably should invade Spain anyway)
September 24, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
O dude, I would be ever so much happier if you would not compare Obama to Carter. Please.
I love Jimmy Carter with all my heart. As elder statesman and the moral voice of the Democratic Party, you can't touch him. As a president, he was terrible. He could not put together enough of a defense to save him and us from Ronald Reagan and Dick Cheney and the rest who ruined his presidency and didn't do one thing for us in bargain.
Please - not another Jimmy Carter. Please.
September 24, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree. Carter has a huge heart, and he's been a wonderful philanthropist in the past decade or so. But as a President? He just didn't do well. Try as hard as he could.
And comparisons of Obama to Carter, in any way? No thank you. There's a conservative talking point if I ever heard one, and a demonstrable falsehood.
September 24, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he was comparing Obama to Carter. Obama is Reagan (not policywise, obviously).
September 24, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok but it makes me very nervous every time someone brings up that election.
Very nervous indeed - the very last thing on earth the Democrats need is another presidency like Carter's. Especially right now.
September 24, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
CArter was also the unknown change guy. Tempermentally, philosophically and politically...Obama is Carter. Well meaning, umtested, completely out of his league.
September 24, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to mention that McCain is no Regan, he just doesn't have the charisma and a number of other things.
September 24, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he was comparing Obama to Reagan...
September 24, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would mean me invading a spouse's county. NO!
September 24, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Eric's a Hunky Monkey
September 24, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
O dear, I don't know what that says about you.
roflmao!
(just teasing.)
September 24, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just 'cause we don't all have rainbows in our avitars doesn't mean you know who we are... ;-)
September 24, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Obama with huge lead.
September 24, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's important to point out that McCain, before and after the bump, can't get above the mid-40s.
September 24, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you- he hasn't broken out of the 40s this entire campaign.
September 24, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's his threshold. He hardly can go up after that.
September 24, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's that pesky concrete ceiling. Like a prison?
September 24, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
I could think of maybe 6 rude things to say about that -
September 24, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
and Obama keeps going up. Over at Pollster, Obama is at an all-time high of 48.2% and I'm not sure if that includes today's results.
September 24, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Slightly up , slightly down, slightly up, slightly down, Slightly up , slightly down, slightly up, slightly down, Slightly up , slightly down, slightly up, slightly down, Slightly up , slightly down, slightly up, slightly down, Slightly up , slightly down, slightly up, slightly down, Slightly up , slightly down, slightly up, slightly down, Slightly up , slightly down, slightly up, slightly down, Slightly up , slightly down, slightly up, slightly down.
September 24, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
Like I said - another 24 hours, another fraction of a point of "movement" in the polls.
Actually with "movement" on this scale, I'm of the opinion that the polls didn't change, people just recalculate the numbers and come up with a different fraction.
September 24, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
whoa, you know the probability of a coin flip AND you know how to cut and paste?
I'm impressed.
September 24, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is starting to talk in Dunedin.
September 24, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Cling" implies a chiffon dress.
'Hang on" implies a monkey.
Take your pick.
September 24, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
O shut up. You aren't handing out choices to people - you aren't God, despite what you may think.
September 24, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, it's a Tena sandwich!
September 24, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go ahead, baby - take a bite.
Hope you break a tooth.
September 24, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now it's a Club Sandwich!
September 24, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
"fog" implies a hazy grip on reality.
"u2" implies a high-flying spy plane shot down in a failed mission.
Take your pick.
September 24, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Decided to change up the racist imagery in your avatar, eh fogu?
Loosen your hood a bit. The lack of oxygen is affecting your brain.
September 24, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
But no, you're not racist, are you?
Where is a flagging function when you need one?
September 24, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
did everyone see this teaser from a NBC/WSJ poll to be released at approx 630pm this evening:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/24/1439689.aspx
September 24, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
'Hanging on to lead' makes me feel a weakness on the part of the leader, as opposed to 'Maintaining lead' which has more of an in control feel to it. It's the trend that I am more interested in, and the trend for Obama has been upward, even if only slightly.
September 24, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Erik seems to have quite the passive-aggressive streak, doesn't he?
I wonder why a headline can't be a little less dramatic.
"3 point Obama Lead in National Polls"
"Polls Pretty Much the Same Today as They Were Yesterday"
"Obama's Lead is 3 Points Nationally"
Let's try for more facts, less drama, and for godsake, less Tim-Carveresque-master-of-the-obvious commentary such as "it might be something, or it might be nothing." Duh.
September 24, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest fox news poll Obama 45 McPOS 39...poor Obama just hanging on eh Eric?
September 24, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
seems fox have just woke up to the fact mcsame is losing big get ready for more spin and attacks from fox
September 24, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
What about having a negative version of recommend, kinda like with you tube. Then we can all vote Eric's silly games off of the front page. Hmmm, guess that's a bit truthy and self-serving isn't it.
O well, get ready for tomorrow:
"Obama lead crashes to only 3 points"
September 24, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink