Obama Expanding His Lead In The Tracking Polls
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with all four of them showing some small positive movement for Barack Obama as he expands his recently regained national lead:
Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama moved into a narrow lead of 47%-45%.
Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 48%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, McCain had a bare edge of 48%-47%.
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 46%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 45%-42%.
Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-44%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is now ahead by a margin of 47.9%-45.1%, compared to yesterday's lead of 46.9%-45.6%
Wow. Can Obama's campaign be saved?
September 18, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only by completely unpredictable events in the world that miraculously coincide with Obama's interests!
September 18, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And predictable daily gaffs and lies from McCain/Palin.
"STUMP ME! I DARES YA!"
September 18, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
And given the economic climate Obama should be up 60-40.
September 18, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
...it's a race thing...remember?
September 18, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to Rush, racism only exists against white people.
Reverse Racism!!!
September 18, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why are you so insistent on poking at that race tar baby? You made your (ever so weak) point weeks ago and yet, you seem to be the only one (except for trolls like DimBecile) who brings race up completely out of context.
September 18, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't blame me...
For Obama, Race Remains Elephant in the Room
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1841109,00.html
Joe Biden Puts Barack Obama's Race Front And Center
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/259856
Sebelius: 'Code language' hindering Obama campaign
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/28480469.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUnciatkEP7DhUsX
September 18, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
So are you arguing that racism is not an issue in America? Hell in the military? Or are you trying to find anything to talk about other than the utter embarassment that is the Readiness/Blink team you are supporting?
September 18, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
No...Jonze wrote "And given the economic climate Obama should be up 60-40." and I wrote "...it's a race thing...remember?" because that's the excuse Dems have been giving for underperforming in the current climate. That way they can pretend it has nothing to do with their ticket being composed of the #1 and #3 most liberal sitting Senators, with the single least experienced candidate ever nominated.
September 18, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you mean the single least experienced candidate ever nominated by the democrats, or single least experienced overall? If the latter, then your characterization of Sen Obama is inaccurate. Abraham Lincoln had less experience in government than Sen Obama at the time he was first nominated.
September 18, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
SFCWallace is trying to bait you and others into arguing that Obama has more experience than Palin, then he'll gleefully run through her executive experience as his trump.
September 18, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well we have already debunked the national journal rankings, so I'm going to respond to that point. As to the "reason" that things are not 60-40, my guess is it has a lot to do with the fact a significant portion of the voting population still holds onto the Maverick Image of McCain. I think that veneer has been worn thin over the last few days, but we'll see. Or maybe it's because Obama hasn't shown that readiness or he blinked. Or something.
My question for you is why given all of Palin's vast experience she doesn't know anything about any of the relevant issues (including the one she's supposed to know more about than anyone in the country)? That experience doesn't amount to much if it has nothing to do with the job you are applying for or is having that readiness and not blinking enough for you?
September 18, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. I wish we had #1 and #2 Liberal running. Remember, when you honor the Founding Fathers, you're honoring Liberals. Hoo Ya!
September 18, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
None of these articles is reporting an out of context phenomenon. This thread is about polls, yet you insist on making it one about race. Is there something from which you wish to divert our attention with your appeals to race? Or is diversion just part of the Republican toolkit?
September 18, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was responding to Jonze's comment...completely in context.
September 18, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, your use of irony was so...um...masterful that it eluded me entirely. Perhaps it was because you tend to cry "racism!" ("wolf"?) more frequently than anyone on TPM, as I pointed out above.
Regarding Jonze's observation that Obama is underperforming: instead of yet another glib jab with the blunt racism club, perhaps you should consult with a pollster. From Gallup: Re-Assessing Obama’s “Under-Performance” in the Polls. Far more insightful than blithely proclaiming, "Y'all Democrats are stuck on race."
September 18, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude...again...you may need to direct that post to Obama's surrogates (and some other folks here) I say he's underperforming because he sucks (for lack of a more eloquent term) they all say it's closet racism.
September 18, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is "they"? Please don't throw generalities around and accuse all of "us" of doing something. I for one have never claimed that people aren't voting for Obama because of racism.
Just out of curiosity (though I loathe to get into this)....do you deny that there are people who would never vote for an AA?
September 18, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
No...of course there are...I'm saying those people probably don't need any secret code to remind them Obama's black...they're stupid, but not that stupid. Unless there's a bloc of blind racists with altzheimers out there who keep forgetting who the black guy is.
September 19, 2008 8:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are just hopelessly naive if you think that race is not the elephant in the room in this election. The Republicans are experts at playing the race card (just ask John McCain what they did to him because of his "black child" in 2000). Present-day Republicans have about as much in common with Lincoln's party as Strom Thurman and Jessie Helms (racist Dixiecrats turned Republican) had with Martin Luther King.
September 18, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
My favorite Republican claim about Obama is that the Democrats nominated him because of his racial teflon - the notion that nobody can criticize him for fear of being called a racist. Since when was the average Republican deterred by the fear of being racially insensitive (my mother and stepfather, both ardent Republicans, still refer to blacks as "nigras")? I guess all the slime we're seeing is being created by Hillary's dejected supporters, right?
September 18, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
SFCWallace is a PUMA? That explains a lot.
September 18, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha! Never!! I did own some sweet Pumas back in highschool though.
September 18, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
You had better stock up on Viagra, you’re going to have a real identity crisis after the election.
September 18, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls drive me berserk whichever way they go . . .
September 18, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Big Amen to that! I think that things will only really begin to firm up after the first debate next week.
September 18, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
So I don't have to vote? We won right?
September 18, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
"small" positive movement? WTF, Eric? That's a huge movement!
September 18, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, poor Eric just can't win for losing around here. Seems that no matter what he says about the numbers he just doesn't get it right.
September 18, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
It might help if he just reported the numbers without the commentary. Apparently, some think that he's not well versed in poll interpretation.
September 18, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I may have been giving a little poke to one or two of our fellow-travellers here, but not Erik.
September 18, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Honestly, he's a lot better recently.
But before he had some pretty ridiculous reads on polls. Including drastic overuse of the word cling. Which put into lots of us a permanent need to snark on his poll posts.
September 18, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry. He's pretty unbearable.
He interpreted one poll a week or two ago to be evidence that McCain got a bump AND didn't get a bump.
September 18, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Paging idiotic...
September 18, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's people are starting to losing it. His campaign head Steve Schmidt is now saying that the Obama camp is "cheerleading" the current crisis.
http://thepage.time.com/pool-report-of-schmidt-comments-on-mccain-press-plane/
WTF? This guys are begging for a good beatin'...
Obama is hitting them harder and harder and they only shoot themselves on the foot (Like they did on the Zapatero gaffe today). Their lies won't save them and they'll be lost.
PD: Halperin, you suck now more than ever!
September 18, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to give you credit for being able to read that all the way through. I made it two whole paragraphs.
September 18, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know...
Excuse me, I going for my fifth trip to the bathroom to throw up. That Schmidt is one dirty disgusting piece of...
(Sudden rush to the toilet)
September 18, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
What Obama's take should be: "I don't know why McCain derides the idea that Americans can take on and overcome this crisis. It's his prerogative to think that believing in America is just cheer leading, but I at least believe America is a great country that can succeed whenever it puts it mind to it."
September 18, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saw this elsewhere, too funny :)
McCan whispers to advisers: "Is Spain Sunni or Shia?"
September 18, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
pssst..."that's Spanish extremists, not Al Qaeda".
September 18, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's Lieberman whispering to McCain
"that's Europe... Spain is in Europe."
September 18, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I keep waiting for the corporate media to start asking about the Spain gaffe so that we can unload those Spanish Inquisition jokes that are just waiting to be launched....
September 18, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
When McCain was growing up, most of Spain was Sunni.
September 18, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, he's not THAT old. He was only a baby when there was a Spanish Caliph. I could swear that he's described the campaigns of Ferdinand and Isabella in 1492, though.
September 18, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama should slam Schmidt
September 18, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. But remember, he's running against McCain, not Schmidt. He'll find a way to do so. I trust the man. He has his own way to do this kind of things.
The "staff meeting" line yesterday was a killer, so I expect him to hit Schmidt in the same way. Let's wait and see.
Timing is everything. We're witnessing it.
September 18, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's amazing what happens when things get serious - the McCain campaign literally starts flailing around like it hasn't learned to swim. They can't even get through the day without hurting themselves. You'd think this means they'll need to invent controversy. But given the severity of the situation they'll get killed by the MSM for not talking issues. Couldn't happen to a more loathsome candidate.
Pufferfish
September 18, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
What gives with intrade?
Of course, what are the odds that a significant proportion of the 49.5 percent are some of the same people who put their money in Fannie Mae, Lehman and AIG?
September 18, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you actually go to their web site, Obama is at 51.8 (+2.1) and McCain is at 47.8 (-1.7).
September 18, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's the This is excellent news!!! For McCain!!! guy at lately?
September 18, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there a way you could calculate and report the MoE for the aggregate score?
September 18, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think most of what we've seen so far in the polls these last three days hasn't been driven by the bad financial news, as much as by the hangover from the Palin drama.
When the hysteria hit its peak I told my wife: she's the political equivalent of crack cocaine to McCain. He gets a big, initial boost of joyfulness and good feeling, then it fades and his supporters wake up and realize they're ruining themselves with this empty substance. NPR quoted an invited member of the audience at a McCain-Palin rally saying she's obviously got no foreign policy experience. Some Conservative commentators have turned against her.
Once the gloss went away, the race returned to where it was in August. If anything, McCain may have inflicted more damage to his campaign with the Palin pick than anything else: he lowered himself a notch as a serious candidate in the eyes of the middle of the road voter. Now the economic stuff might just drive Obama's number to the post DNC levels.
September 18, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we please stop citing Rasmussen polls. They are pure shite. They claim that 96% of the voters are going to vote for McCain and Obama.
Does anyone really believe that figure. There is no way that there is only four percent of the voters left in the pool for undecided, Greens, Nader, and Libertarian supporters, this far ahead of the actual election day.
Rasmussen figures are pure fantasy.
September 18, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The last time third-party candidates picked up more than 4% of the popular vote was 1996, when Perot picked up 8% and other candidates picked up 2%. In 2000, all the third-party candidates combined accumulated about 3.8% of the vote; in 2004, that figure was around 1%. On top of this, third-party candidates tend to dramatically underperform their pre-election polling, even in polls conducted a couple of weeks before the vote. (The final RCP average for Nader in 2004 was 1%; he ended with 0.38%.)
September 18, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which still leaves all the undecideds, which are usually in the double digits, this far our from an election, so my point is still valid. Go back and read what I actually wrote. You are arguing about something that I did not even claim.
Let me make it simple for you. Do you believe that at this time, there are only four percent of the voters left available to account for undecideds, and all the other fringe candidates.
Rasmussen figures are making that case. I think they are dead wrong.
September 18, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you may have an error in the Pew poll: ThePage claims it is O: 46, M: 44 (not 46)...
September 18, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
46-44 with registered voters, 46-46 with likely voters.
September 18, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you may want to have a look at this number buried in the last Quinnipiac Poll. It is very troubling.http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Obama-Will-Face-a-Tough-Time-Keeping-Clinton-Voters-In-The-Face-of-Palin-Power/Article/200809315100627
September 18, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poll in question was conducted September 5-9, back when Palin's fav/unfav split was positive.
September 18, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is racism an issue? Well, duh. Sure it is. I don't think the Obama campaign is interested in making the issue a high-profile one, though.
There are some voters who will simply never vote for the black guy, even if the the alternative is to cast a ballot for the dotard/idiot ticket.
Some of these folks might have been enticed to vote for a Democrat, but I'm fairly certain that the Obama campaign was aware that there would be a hard core of voters they would never move.
These voters--let's call them "racists" for lack of a better word--may not vote for Obama, but they might be so disaffected by the sheer scale of the McCain/Palin incompetence that they'll just sit home Nov 4th.
That'll do. Energizing the non-moron part of the electorate should win enough votes to carry the necessary electoral votes. I think the Obama campaign had this all pretty well mapped out months ago.
September 19, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink