Obama Dramatically Ramping Up Overall Ad Spending; Now Outgunning McCain
In a sign that the Obama campaign is getting serious about tapping his financial advantage over McCain with six weeks to go, Obama's overall spending on TV ads has jumped 50% in the last two weeks, while McCain's has held steady -- and Obama is now outspending his rival even as he's up on the air in more states.
In the week ending Sept. 21, Obama spent $9.4 million on TV ads in roughly 15 states, up from $6.5 million in the week that ended two weeks ago, Evan Tracey, who tracks national ad buys for the Campaign Media Analysis Group, tells me. Tracey's analysis is based on fresh data he obtained this afternoon.
Obama's increased spending -- which has gone up at the rate of over 20% per week over the past three weeks -- is largely fueled by boosts in spending in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, according to Tracey.
"They're ramping up," Tracey says. "They're cranking up the volume."
In contrast to Obama's ratcheted up spending, his data shows, McCain's outlay has held steady at around $7.5 million in roughly a dozen states -- a number that Obama's expenditures have now surpassed.
Here are some of the states where Tracey's data shows that Obama's spending has jumped:
* In Florida, where the jump is perhaps most dramatic, Obama's spending has climbed to $1.9 million for the week ending on Sept. 21, from $1.2 million the week before that and $807,000 the week before that. Obama has closed in on McCain in the polls.
* In Colorado, Obama's spending has jumped 20% a week; it's at $810,000 for the week ending Sept. 21, up from $500,000 two weeks ago. Obama has edged ahead in the polls.
* In Nevada, where McCain has steadily held a very narrow lead, Obama's spending is at $500,000 a week, up from $230,000 two weeks ago.
* In Pennsylvania, where Obama has led by increasingly tight margins, the Obama camp has increased its spending 20% since last week.
Interestingly, Obama's spending has remained relatively steady in Michigan and has gone up by less dramatic margins in hotly-contested Ohio, Tracey says. Meanwhile, Obama has scaled down spending in Missouri by 40%.
The spending shifts suggest that Obama is using his financial advantage to slowly press down the gas pedal as Election Day approaches (though these numbers don't take into account spending by the party committees, which could equalize things).
"This is clearly a luxury that McCain doesn't have," Tracey says. "The trend is likely to continue through the election. This drumbeat will continue. Twenty-percent per week -- that's not by accident. That's the plan."
Looks like he's taken the recent polls to heart.
September 23, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good time to donate more!
http://www.barackobama.com
... and when you donate, be sure to use the online tool that lets you tell everyone in your email address book to donate too.
Send it to ALL of them and let you know why it matters so much to you. Your friends and family will understand that it's for the best of reasons.
Oh, and if you can't donate, consider making calls into battleground states, or try to encourage others to donate in online communities and the like.
There's ALWAYS something you can do to help, and it doesn't have to cost you anything to do it!
September 23, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok everyone - pony up them bucks!
September 24, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
That or, as stated in the post, this is the plan.
September 23, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love it - I think this is beautifully timed and it's beautiful that the campaign can afford it.
And McLame can't.
September 23, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
McLame also can't afford to chicken out on the debates. But he's doing that anyway.
No wonder it's called the Palin-McSame ticket: NEITHER of those candidates has balls.
September 24, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let the ass-whupping begin.
September 23, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
And just for fun:
http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/
September 23, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, I though the next Congress would decide in the event of a tie.
September 23, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is. But you're also replying to a troll. :)
September 23, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it happened I seriously doubt Hagel would vote for McCain. Sorry, enjoy your masturbatory fantasies elsewhere.
September 23, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. There's no way he'd vote for McCain.
September 23, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, as if there aren't 700 billion other things to think about right now...
The odds of it even coming to that are very rare, and then even more rare for it to end up like that. There are 700 billion other things to worry about that take priority over thinking about that and I am not even talking about the bailout.
September 23, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
1.08% chance of this happening according to FiveThirtyEight.com
Or in other words, 98.92% chance of it not happening.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
September 23, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nonsense. The outgoing veep is not part of the process in the case of an electoral college tie. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com provided a nice summary of the 12th amendment a while back:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/like-kissing-your-sister.html"
September 23, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite. If the House fails to select a president and the Senate fail to elect a vice-president then someone is selected by legislation. Assuming a tie in the legislatipn vote, who would step in as the tie-breaker?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twentieth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
Just a bit of distraction. Much as I enjoy you all "the cult" can get a little....tiresome.
September 23, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I have a cure for that, sweetheart - take yourself on over to some board that isn't infected with the "cult."
Someone with your perspicacity is surely welcome everywhere.
September 23, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO they're not gonna do that. their blogs pretty much suck and have no activity because they're just not going to sit around and talk about how much mccain sucks ass, because they cannot admit to that shit. so they come here, and poke around, being the losers they are. i think they're funny :D
September 23, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you're reduced to praying for a tie now?
September 23, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll note that he accidently left out the UNELECTED SC unconstitutionally usurping the exclusive authority of CONGRESS to settle such election disputes.
Apparently he doesn't have a dog in the race, and doesn't buy the "I'm qualified to be president because I've done jail-time" as a valid campaign slogan.
September 24, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why am I not surprised that you spend your days reading the Moonie Times?
September 23, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
He was gonna quote the Scientology Digest but felt the bit about Thetans chained to volcanoes having a say was over the top.
September 23, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
My friends, we are all Thetans now.
September 23, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, the Christian Science Monitor is a surprisingly decent rag.
I know, very counter-intuitive.
September 23, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
There seem to be several misapprehensions here.
The Christian Science Monitor is not connected to Scientology at all, but is owned by the Christian Science Church. It is a serious newspaper which has won Pulitzers.
The newspaper owned by the Unification Church (not the Church of Scientology) and referred to above as the "Moonie Times" is the Washington Times. It's not in the same league as the Monitor.
September 24, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just saw how this would play out on Fox News, of all places, and they pretty much said Congress would have to pick the next president. So there goes your theory.
September 23, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that happened, Sarah Palin without the clout of Dick Cheney, would be given the job of changing her grandchild's diapers at her office in the Yukon. Her viability as any kind of Obama successor would be nil, although I would be extra protective of Obama against various threats, physical and political, in the desire to 'speed' the succession up.
September 23, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to be taken serious, you need to use a more credible source. The Washington Times is not credible by any stretch of the imagination.
September 24, 2008 5:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very cool.
September 23, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the good thing of having the financial edge. In fact, McCain will start to put ads in Indiana and given that he only has 84 million $ available, he'll start to dry out soon (even if he can ask for RNC help).
September 23, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't maxxed out yet, either. I've still got a few dollars I can send.
I love this campaign.
September 23, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
sucker.
September 23, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shut the fuck up troll.
September 23, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
"BIG BRUTHA IS WATCHING"?
You mean, like Bushit PUBLICLY ADMITTING that he was violating FISA -- which violation is a FELONY -- and would CONINUE to do so?
Or are you thinking of his PUBLIC ADMISSION that he APPROVED the war crime of torture -- for the doing of which WW II Japanese and Nazis were put to death?
Or are you merely recalling that the first political position to be demonized by Hitler was the LIBERAL?
Only asking, because, not being in office, it isn't possible for Obama to be doing the "Big Brtha" bit.
Or is all that too factually informed for your tastes, racist America-hater?
September 24, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Politico's Ben Smith now says that the spots to air in Indiana are from the RNC, not McCain's campaign.
September 23, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
That they have to spend money to advetise here in Indiana is a victory for Obama.
September 23, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada...
McCain won't be able to keep up. He's limited on money and on the ground.
Obama has half of the battle won, now he needs to finish the job in the next six weeks.
Friday night's debate is the next challenge...
September 23, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just keeping up in FL and VA will keep McCain busy.
September 23, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Specially Florida. Without it he's toast.
September 23, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Extra Burnt.
September 23, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and crispy.
September 23, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember, ad spending alone won't win it. Obama out-spent Hillary by a huge margin in PA and lost.
Having said that, I'd rather be us than them.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
September 23, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell you what - you remember that for me, ok?
sheesh
September 23, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those spending numbers are reflected in the polls.
September 23, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least our donations dollars are being put to good use. At first i was getting annoyed that i was donating money to the Obama campaign and i wasn't seeing any results, but thats changed now and i'm glad.
September 23, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama ain't Kerry, Gore or Dukakis. He has a strategy with a long-term view. There may have been a day or two here and there when they got caught a little flat-footed, but overall they have done a masterful job of playing this campaign not for a particular day's newscycle win but a victory in November.
September 23, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's about not letting McCain set the agenda. In retrospect, the Obama Campaign let McCain have "celebrity" day in the sun, saving its money for this moment when the undecideds are now getting engaged.
September 23, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quick calculation shows that if Obama has spent $10M in the past week on TV, and then increments by 20% per week, then by November 4 he will be spending almost $30M per week. The cumulative total for the 7 weeks will be just over $129M. Sound right compared to the $200M that Obama is looking to raise August-September-October, considering that there are other expenses.
September 23, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too bad he's putting out shit ads like McCain's three foreign cars, that McCain can't email and Bermuda.
I think most folks zone out when political ads come on these days. It's ridiculous; it's overkill. Maybe that's what Obama wants, to take ads out of the equation and use his ground game to seal the deal.
He might figure the only chance McCain has is with swift-boat type ads, but if folks are sick and tired of political ads it might not have a sticking effect. I don't think there is an ad break without AT LEAST one political ad anymore for swing staters.
September 23, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
ABC today seems to think that the Obama's anti-elitist ads against McCain are working:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=5868779&page=1
September 23, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
For most of the country, these ads are not that effective but in places like MI and OH I think they keep McCain spending his time undoing the meme he is out of touch rather than making more focused attacks on Obama.
September 23, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what about Minnesota? That's a state where the momentum is going towards McCain. Is he pouring it on there too?
"McCain, putting the 'doh' into using federal dough"--future campaign teaser.
September 23, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jesus, come the fuck on!
Yes, those three ads suck. But those aren't even close to all he's putting out there.
He knows what he's doing. Just chill out.
September 23, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah. well, I also know a ridiculous buzzkill.
September 23, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm so glad he's pushing on the pedal. I, along with numerous others, am sending money to do so and am glad to see he's honing in on states, for the most part, that were red. PA is of concern, as it's so close (though it was close going in for Gore and Kerry, too), but those of us near the border will keep working over there as hard as we can...
September 23, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like Michael Jordan with two minutes to go. Aim for the kill when it counts.
September 23, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a question. When we hear about the mcShame Twins "fund raising," what exactly are they raising and how is that legal? If he's taking public funds, how can he be "raising" funds?
September 23, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're raising money for the RNC and a McCain/Palin PAC (which basically donates all its money to the RNC).
McCain helped draw up our campaign finance laws. His entire team is made up of lobbyists who have dedicated their entire career to circumventing laws governing money and politics.
Of course he's going to cheat the system.
September 23, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course!
September 23, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the RNC. The RNC can then fund ads for McCain and can fund GOTV campaigns and such.
September 23, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
REMEMBER...he can't keep up this pace without us helping him!!!
I think Obama's set on not letting McCain take a newscycle form now until November.
September 23, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
When he comes out with a great speech or a policy that stands up for We the People and the Constitution, I send him some money!
September 23, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect this ramp up has always been planned and is part of Obama's overall pacing. Expect more and more pressure on McCain in the next seven (no, six! how the hell did that happen?) weeks.
I've been noticing Obama radio ads here in Colorado, which means he must be running a lot because I don't listen to many ads at all. I only listen to radio in the car, and I'm always channel hopping.
September 23, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I suspect this ramp up has always been planned and is part of Obama's overall pacing."
Yup! Obama and Company have run very smart campaign - from start to finish.
September 24, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto, TheraP, no one seems to recognize the discrepancy.
Seriously, can they legally just keep raising funds?
September 23, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
These funds are a poll in and of themselves. Obama has more campaign donors and primarily donations in smaller amounts.
If that isn't a populist endorsement and a testament to the public's commitment to Obama... ...I'll have a beer with Bush.
September 23, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. Obama should saturate, no, over-saturate the airwaves. Then everyone will become familiar with him, very familiar. And you know what familiarity breeds.
September 23, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want to know who breeded you, smh
September 23, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice try. So succinct, so seemingly conclusive. But, sadly, quite overstated!
McCain has drowned the airwaves, too, but his ads - and his message - don't seem to be overtaking Obama's. We feel for you...
September 23, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
..the first black president.
September 23, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
racist.
September 23, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
douchebag
September 24, 2008 1:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Reading this made me send some more money, gotta love it.
September 23, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain on record as co-sponsoring legislation to prevent the fraud two years ago. Where was Obama?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/23/national/w161113D60.DTL&tsp=1
September 23, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone else fantasize about what all this $$ could do if we didn't have these American Idol style media saturation format for our elections?
Does our highest office selection really reflect who makes the better commercial??
*sigh*
September 23, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think there is some golden past in America when personalities and personal shit didn't appeal to voters?
It's always been like this. There's just more exposure now due to the media.
September 23, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know I know... Just something about seeing the $$ numbers and envisioning it going toward "real" stuff that we are so sorely lacking..
*crawls back into idealistic cave*
September 23, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
O don't crawl into a cave. Being idealistic is lovely - I am idealistic, too. Except I enjoy the spectacle sometimes and the fact that we tend toward the sensational.
We're just chimpanzees after all. Who can forget the shit that Jefferson and Adams gave each other publicly in the press? Or the shit they threw at Andrew Jackson because his wife was a divorcee? Or the little ditty about Cleveland: "Ma Ma, where's my pa? Gone to the White House, haw haw haw!" which addressed his reputed illegitimate child?
Hell, at least the candidate who can drag the most drunks in off the street to vote doesn't automatically win anymore.
;)
September 23, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I'm not mistaken, Cleveland is also the one who lost the White House china in a poker game.
They had it crated up and taken out.
September 23, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, I didn't know all that!
Of course it's always been a popularity and "morals" contest, but back then it probably cost 25 cents for a smear ad in the daily ;)
September 23, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, that would be Warren G. Harding. Sounds like Republican Presidents haven't changed all that much (Cleveland was a Democrat).
And Cleveland did something novel when confronted with the accusations about the child -- he told the truth. End result: "Gone to the White House. Ha! Ha! Ha!"
September 23, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your quotation has absolutely nothing to do with Obama - or even McCain, for that matter. I'm not going to bother responding to you anymore, as your arguments are vapid.
September 23, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This was meant for fogu2...
Yikes, but I sure wish this messaging system was like that of Kos...so much easier to follow.
September 23, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trust us. We knew who you were talking to.
From your lips to Josh's ear...
Actually, there was supposed to be a new server on the 15th and a new preview system was promised to be in the cards. I'm hoping soon...
September 23, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saying that Fannie and Freddie were "at the center of this mess" is another McCain red herring. The definition of "subprime mortgage" is one that doesn't meet Fannie & Freddie's risk guidelines. And subprime mortgages are the bulk of the bad debt that's collapsing Wall Street, and taking a lot of perfectly good assets and companies down with it, particularly by devaluating the entire housing market. The reason that Fannie/Freddie went down first is that they report their holdings monthly, not quarterly. But they weren't the ones out there peddling "3%" mortgages, bundling them into securities and then selling them off to others. Nor were they the ones buying those securities sight-unseen.
September 23, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, quit muddying the waters with facts!
September 23, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everyone vote in the PBS "Palin qualification" poll: http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html
September 23, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is she qualified:
50% yes
48% no
as of 5pm PST
Wow, that's depressing... I thought PBS appealed to the "smart" ones...
September 23, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did I get it backwards?
If it's still 50% yes, 48% no, it hasn't changed at all since I first looked at it yesterday.
I think it's bogus at this point.
September 23, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good, now we can double federal funding since it's now pro-wingnut! ;-)
September 24, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Man, those bastards are sure determined to keep that poll freeped.
I even got an email from a friend who is not a blogger with that link. It's going around and it's still 50% no to 48% yes.
Keep pushing it - this is crazy.
September 23, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've voted on it multiple times. It's as incompetent as Palin.
September 23, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
No reason to vote on it anymore. It's been killed.
http://www.pbs.org/now/palin-poll.html
September 23, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah. Now I don't have to worry about the temptation to write a script that blows it to smithereens. Laziness saved my ass!
September 23, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone who cites the Moonie paper and Wikipedia as authoritative sources doesn't merit a reply.
September 23, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
An excellent economic stimulus measure while Congress deliberates.
He has my approval not to go easy on these jerks.
September 23, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
We give the public airwaves to the networks so we can give money to political campaigns so the political campaigns can give money for advertising time to the networks so they can get rich. Is there something wrong with this picture..?
September 23, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
What about cable?
That's what's wrong with your picture - it doesn't fit anymore.
September 23, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
DAMNIT! Another candidate giving up on Missouri! This really pisses me off because WE CAN TURN THIS STATE. My knee-jerk reaction is to not donate any more money... (but I know I will)
SSSSIIIIGGGGHHHH
September 23, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I feels ya as I'm a Missouri native and have lots o' roots there but think of the Country as a whole. It not your fault that it apparently is trending red. I bet given another month and a few more millions it could be done.
No reason why GOTV and voter registration has to end. Just because he's not gonna spend money doesn't mean the volunteer effort has to end. Dig?
Shee-it. I'm in motherf**king Texas! We are getting busy here but I haven't seen an Obama office or TV ad in gawdknowshowlong.
Semper Fi-
September 23, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I feel ya and I'm going to keep working and giving. Like I said, "my knee-jerk reaction" but I oh so rarely go with those. I'll be keepin' the faith!
GOBAMA!
September 23, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has given up on Iowa. His campaign denies (another lie) that this is happening, but they have.
There will be a major tactical misstep by McCain within the next ten days. They will pull the plug on a battleground that they were competitive, but will opt to shift resources to Florida or Ohio.
McCain is now on the defensive, and his electoral strategy grows smaller by the day. Obama can piece together a victory with any number of combinations.
It is very possible that in the last days this could turn into a rout for the democrats. If this happens put Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, and even Indiana into the Obama column (an electoral landslide). It will then be a very, very early night on November 4th.
September 23, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just one?
The partying starts early!
September 23, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts exactly. I intend to have a bottle of high-class bourbon and a lot of Indiana fireworks ready to go.
September 23, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perot and Connally, they had tons of cash, and they both won their presidential election campaigns.
September 23, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
a third of the country are very very enthusiastic about liking Obama a whole lot.
a third of the country think McCain's essence could be bottled up and sold as octane enhancer both at home and abroad for a premium sufficient enough to close the US deficit.
the last third looks at most candidates and say, potayto, potahto and if enough of them get the idea of Obama's ahem liberalness then McCain walks into 1600.
I voted for HRC, I'll vote for Obama.
I'm more optimistic than I was in 2004, when I voted for Kerry with almost no enthusiasm whatsoever.
September 23, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted for Obama-Biden this morning
Early voting rocks!
September 23, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will be after September 30th here.
No more bullshit standing in line for over an hour.
September 24, 2008 12:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama Dramatically Ramping Up Overall Ad Spending; Now Outgunning McCain
Works for me!
September 23, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The new Senate would select the VP in the event of a tie in the electoral college and the Dems will have a clear majority in the new Senate so the Cheney tie-braking scenario is BS.
If you add up Obama + DNC money and compare it with McCain + RNC money, the parties will be about even in funding with no big advantage to Obama. Also, the NRA is spending $40 million against Obama/Biden in OH, PA, MI, MN, CO, VA, NC, NV, and NH.
September 23, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yawn.
Up yours, ugly jizz-infested ape.
September 24, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good to see McCain Palin up in the Bational polls again. Oilbama's ties to Big Oil, Freddie Mac, and Fannie, have doomed his campaign more than Biden's big mouth and his own empty suit.
September 23, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
More troll jizz.
Just Shut the fuck up.
No one cares what wingnutz "think."
You're goin' DOWN!
September 24, 2008 12:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know things are bad when Dumb BillC crawls out from under a rock.
Awwwww...feeling it slipping away from "Ooops I pooped my pants" McCain? Because it is!
President Barack Obama.....say it over and over....it's happening.
Thank God!
September 24, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
BREAKING!!!!!
Obama surges to a 9 point lead among likely voters in the latest ABC-WaPo poll!
Obama 52%
McBush 43%
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1073a108ElectionUpdate.pdf
September 24, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Once again, Obama just can't break that 53% barrier. Is his campaign staff asleep? His inability to seal the deal dooms us all.
September 24, 2008 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
The one down side to this poll is that it is going to be used as a marker for pre debate polling, and this poll sets a pretty high bar for that. However I rather there be polls saying Obama is doing this good. No matter what happens really there will be those who will spin things against Obama.
September 24, 2008 3:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama clinging to landslide win.
September 24, 2008 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain stuck at the 43% range. To the extent that this poll represents what is happening out there, it indicates that the undecideds are all breaking for Obama right now.
Both have about 8% who say there is good chance they will change their vote, so the debate is still very important.
September 24, 2008 7:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is it me, or does the photo of Rick Davis on the TPM front page make him look like Al Gore's very, very evil twin?
September 24, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ya know, I think I've seen pictures of Rick Davis schlepping around a projection screen and a movie projector. You might be onto something!
September 24, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
An Inconvenient Lie
September 24, 2008 7:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
A few points to keep in mind about weather storms and political storms.
1) Everything is calm before storm hits;
2) The wind always blows in the direction of the storm;
3) When the storm center hits, its' usually fast, furious and over with relatively quickly;
4) Once the storm passes, the damage assessment is always much larger than what one would expect.
This has the makings of a perfect storm!
September 24, 2008 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
That site hasn't been updated since May 18th. The polls have changed a bit since then. In fact the win the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado but loose NH tie is almost exactly what the current polls currenly say will happen. I would think the odds are a bit better than 1.8% now.
September 24, 2008 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html
September 24, 2008 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
New ABC/WP poll of likely voters, BO 52 JM 43
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=5866046&page=1
September 24, 2008 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Curb your enthusiasm -- NRA about to spend a fat fortune lying their way across swing states.
September 24, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, maybe the financial crisis has put McCain donors umm a little short right now...? ;-) $25 you can still spare, but $25000? Maybe not right now...
September 24, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ha!
September 24, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink