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Obama Campaign Manager Vows To Spend $39 Million In Florida Alone

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has just blasted out to supporters a new fundraising video he filmed from his lap top, and in it he shares an interesting piece of news: The campaign plans to spend the amazing sum of over $39 million in Florida alone.

All the polling out right now has given McCain the lead here, and the vast majority of observers view the state as McCain's to lose. But Plouffe obviously doesn't agree, if he really is willing to shell out $39 million that could have been spent on other targets like Colorado and Virginia.

"We have enough base voters in Florida to win the election, if we can just turn them out," Plouffe says.


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I wish the government was as efficient and accountable as this campaign has been.

The other one it's just like the Bush-Cheney White House: They're covering up a scandal already!

So what do you all think? Will this work?

It definitely won't work if people don't donate.

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Holy shit, CNN's got McCain and Obama tied in the polls. Maybe it actually would be worth it.

I'm hoping he's just saying 39 million, but in actuality they only spend 15. It seems like too many eggs in one phallic shaped basket.

It seems like too many eggs in one phallic shaped basket.

Priceless. "Does your state hang low, do you swing it to and fro..."

http://thepajamapundit.com/

Tough one, lot of geezers down there . . .

Um, Obama can get a lot of the geezers. My only real complaint with the campaign so far is that the youth/change message and imagery has sometimes seemed a little geezer-exclusionary. That will be changing as Soc Security becomes more prominent.

Paging Ed Koch, paging Ed Koch ...

The only thing I believe is retirees need to hear the following message.

...

Wall Street is in tatters. Wall Street banks are teetering on the brink of collapse. Millions of people’s pension funds are crumbling as investment firms go under. Consider what would have happened to your retirement if John McCain and George Bush had managed to privatize your Social Security?

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Bingo!! That is a golden message.

Folks have retirement funds, savings and pensions to worry about in the demographic that is not responding. Unlike the young 'rednecks' the older ones really will consider voting for him on the basis of economic hardship. Young 'rednecks' think the world stretches before them and that things will get better and that they can always get a job.

Old folks worry seriously about outliving their money. That is a fate worse than death to most of them.

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Yes. The strategy is a good one, but more important, it doesn't compete with the standard strategies that political campaigns usually employ. The Obama campaign is innovating, and they're going to pull this off because it will be years before political analysts get a clear handle on what they did to win.

They've taken a virtually unknown, first-term Senator from Illinois and made him into the Democratic nominee and the front-runner in the race for president. Oh, and he's the world's biggest celebrity, according to the McCain campaign.

These people beat the Clinton machine. They know what they're doing.

Who is to say they won't spend equally large amounts in Colorado and Virginia?

This is a smart strategy...if they can spend that amount in Florida alone, i think they have a chance of winning that state. They need to raise the amount of register voters in both black and hispanic constituency.

Make McCain defend his turff in Florida.

I like Obama's chances in Florida than Ohio. As far as i am concern, Ohio is going to be difficult but Florida is winnable.

$39 mil thats a lot of coin for one state. but knowing also that the McCain camp will see this video, it has to be startling for them as well.

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Yes, it is a lot for one state. However, Florida has so many EV it is worth it. Is there any other state where Obama could get the same EC clout?

If Obama wins CA,PA,FL, and NY..is there still a path to 270 for McCain...or does Florida cinch the deal?

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If Obama were to win Kerry's states and flip Florida he would be over the line in terms of Elector College votes.

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It all depends... most models assume Obama wins all of Kerry's states (if conditions allow McCain to take any of Kerry's states, it's already over in my opinion.

If Obama wins the safe states, Florida, and the (currently)Obama-leaning midwest--Iowa,Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan--, McCain must win every single other state.

I actually believe that--timed correctly--it's worth it for the polls and perception. Obama has now been behind for two weeks of opprobrious McCain campaigning, shutting off the media attack reflect against inevitable winners. Now the donor and pundit base has to see electoral maps with Obama over 270 (though not by much) and blue in the corners.

Florida is a special strategy, IMO; the Democrats have a united national strategy in 2008-- they are for responsible use of the military; an efficient and free market, but one that's well refereed; protect schools, expand health insurance, and defend social security.
All of this plays well in Florida and in the other swing states.

You notice that McCain was static or sliding in Florida just as he has been surging elsewhere--that's because the lines that are winning him and SP those votes in NV, CO, and NM are losing votes in Florida, and vice versa.

By making Florida a real fight, Obama is forcing McCain to talk to Florida in the debates. Obama can win over his voters in Florida, the rust belt, and the rockies with the same message. McCain has been using different messages to these Demographics, so telling them the same thing will force him to sacrifice two of these regions to get one of them.

You also have to consider that McCain is trying to get by in Florida on a shoe-string budget, especially with GOTV efforts. I'm not gonna say Plouffe doesn't know what he's talking about. If the man needs $40 million to get the job done I believe it.

But it also seems like this could be a head-fake to get McCain to drop more resources in Florida and pull crucial dollars away from the western states and Va.

Pufferfish

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A head fake is pretty believable. But if you are going to head fake, why spell out the exact figure? It's like taking a couple steps in a direction and then faking it. Of course it's more believable with $39 mil spelled out. But seriously, that's a half a month's take for the whole campaign. THat's a lot of money.


It's a beauty of a head fake, if that's indeed what it is. The McCain camp has no choice but to believe it's true, and act accordingly. McCain can't afford to lose FLA, and yet at the same time he can't afford to lose ground in VA, CO or OH. So whether it's a head fake or not, it's a pretty beautimous strategy. I like win/win. And I don't mean Whip Inflation Now.

the assumption that the money in FL is money they should spend in other states is flawed, the strategy here is to get all the new donors and those who have not maxed out to give as much as possible so that each battleground state gets what it needs.

I can tell you as an Obama volunteer in VA that they are not holding back in this state. We are building a massive GOTV operation here. Don't worry... we will be competitive where we want to be competitive. This is a bit of gauntlet throwing by the Obama campaign.

kerry states + iowa + virginia = president obama

I don't know. I hope FL will not again turn into final frontier.

His message is optimistic especially the focus on voter registration and GOTV.

That seems to be like Christmas present wrapped in a box and when we open it on Nov 4, I hope we find what we like and need for victory.

Voter registration and GOTV are the BIG unknowns in this election.

There is huge amount of African American in Florida. I think Ploufe is right about those numbers. An Obama chance in Florida is better than Ohio.

Also, this video is more about strategy than press release. McCain only has less than $85 million to spend and i don't see him spending $30 million in Florida alone.

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Yes, Florida was the state where the absolute worse disenfranchise of the vote took place. Fl intimidated soooo many people of color, AA, Hispanics, and Haitians were all afraid to vote. There were language barriers, insufficient voting machines, ballots never turned in but left in the box at the polls, as well as the police out in full force to frighten people away from the polls.

Obama can win FL by just cleaning up some of the massive voter disenfranchisment that has occurred.

They need to ensure that folks have access to the ballot box.

Fl is indeed winnable.

Can work if they do a saturation buy of a hard-hitting scare ad about what would be happening to people's Social Security benefits if McCain had gotten his way and funneled the money to Lehman and Merrill Lynch. I sure hope that's the plan.

I am with Mr LaBonne here. If that is the message that the campaign plans to put out in Florida with that $39 million, I am inclined to think that it is not such a bad use of the money. It is not how I would have done it if I were in charge (I think Colorado/Iowa/New Mexico is a more obvious path of least resistance, so I would have focused my efforts there), but Obama's people are much smarter than am I, so the fact that I would not have done it that way says more about me than it does about the campaign. As long as they are using that $39 million to hit McCain hard in Florida (with a really focused message like "McCain wants to privatize Social Security") then I am inclined to be optimistic about the prospects for this approach. Certainly it would be a great thing if we could flip FL back into the blue column this year.

well the market is tanking big this afternoon could be today will be as bad as Monday and this after the buyout so the scare ad could just be a newsreel

You announce that you are going to spend 39 million in Florida, and hope that forces McCain to make huge ad purchases there. That reduces the amount that McCain will have left to spend in other states.

Then you let him have Florida, and spend the 39 million elsewhere. Lets us hope McCain takes the bait.

Off topic I know, but what software is he using that clicks the slides into the recording like that?

A little off topic but I just wanted say that it would help a great deal if Obama wouldn't change his stance on things like FISA and new taxes for the rich before he is even elected. It's not productive. I realize that he is repsonding to these situations as they arise, but unless he actually has to vote on something, he should just say that his stance hasn't changed. Obviously, if Bush blows a whole in Russia before then, then certain plans will have to change. Short of that, please stay the course.

"hole" in Russia as in a hole in won. dang.

Eric, Greg & Co, I again request you to try and track voter registration and relative GOTV efforts for other swing states.

Can you guys traingulate his numbers and confirm whether Obama has 1.4 million previously untapped voters in FL. And what about other states?

Believe me this information will make more sense than any tracking poll at this point.

Nate at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com is already doing something like this. I don't think he's doing any electorate projecting other than analyzing what they polls are projecting, but he's actually visiting each state, and getting a feel for the groundlevel organizing of both campaigns and how this may or may not effect the turnout in November.

It's good stuff so far, you should check it out.

All those fixed income types in FLA will have to think twice about who's going to run the economy.

In the meantime, reading that Times article about Obama-resistant Dem Catholics in Scranton and beyond reminded me why I don't go to church anymore.

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the y could spend $39 Billion and it won't do any good if they don't start fighting those God Damned Repubolicans. Spending alone doesn't win elections. Effective spending wins elections. They trounced Hillary on the spending, especially at the end of theprimary season and barely beat her! Plouffe, etal are a genuine disappointment.

Crikey. Are you serious?

They beat Hillary Clinton, who had more inherent advantages than any other candidate going in to a Primary in history. Now they are on the brink of putting a one-term African American Senator into the White House. Yeah, these guys suck.

What are they thinking raising all this money and registering all these millions of voters? Crazy.

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Are you really so vaccinated against reality you can't see what is going on? Limping by won't cut it in November! He had a tsunami of money compared to Hillary between Super Tuesday and her demise and she damn near beat him despit his overwhelming spending. Take a break from the Kool Aid and step back to assess what is actually happening instead of just looking at things through rose-colored glasses. At best, Obama is in trouble at this point. Money alone won't do it if they maintain this limp-wristed "above it all" naive campaign. You have to fight to win. Being a better professor means little to the average American.

Barely winning counts as a win!

yes!!
I knew they were holding back the Privatize Social Security slam!!

it is amazing how recent McCain has been saying he wants Privatization

I would rather ditch FL since it is not needed to win this election at all and iam sick of FL in general from the last 2 elections, however I have trust that they know what they are doing and are going to campaign heavily and other states like VA/CO/OH/NC/NV/NM. IMO they need to hit McCain on social security, can you imagine if it was privatized right now?

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Agreed. Now is the time to hammer the argument about privatizing Social Security.

I would imagine this video is directed as much at McCain as it is supporters. It's also attention grabbing (the $39 million number) so will probably get some mention nationally and more locally (in Florida papers, for example). It's Plouffe in a trenchcoat standing under Florida's window holding a boombox over his head.

There are so many undecided states and Obama is raising the pot in Florida to see if McCain will call his bluff or raise it as well.

It's a pretty good strategy. Make McCain go to Florida, it keeps him out of other states. If he doesn't go there, Obama may come from behind and get it from him sealing up a victory.

Think Geography as well. McCain doesn't do well on his own, he needs Palin. If they are in Ohio, they can split it with one going to Michigan or Pennsylvania for the occasional single event. However, in Florida it would make both travel quite a bit more.

I think it is smart.

Agreed, I think it's a gutsy poker move.

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Obama is rolling on all cylinders today! He slammed McCain good in Elko..he told them 'McCain says he is going to clean up the good ol boys network" But McCain has all those lobbyists, Phil Gramm and other washington insiders working on his campaign. He said ...do you know what they call the good ol boys in the McCain campaign? A staff meeting!

That "staff meeting" joke was hilarious to me.

Is it weird that I got pumped up listening to David Plouffe drone on about voter registration and spending $39M in Florida on direct mailings?

I like stuff like this. I kinda wish that they'd do a mini-breakdown on the campaign's efforts in the swing states for us to get a feel for what's going on nationally.

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Is it weird that I got pumped up listening to David Plouffe drone on about voter registration and spending $39M in Florida on direct mailings?

Tee hee!

No, it's not weird. You're addicted to politics.

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When you are here at TPM asking that kind of questions. I gotta tell you...we are the wrong demographic. Most of us felt just like you did!!

We are primarily closet nerds here and political junkies. So all you will get from us in answer to that type question is,

Amen.

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It's not how much you spend, but how you spend it. So far I haven't seen a thing on the air that packs real punch. I'm trying to figure out what happened to the bright innovative guys who ran circles around the Clintons. Did they take a vacation or what?

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Laura O'Donnell just said the same thing on MSNBC.
She mentioned how memorable the 3AM ad and 'celebrity ads' are ...then she said why doesn't obama have any ads like that?

I had to agree with her. Then I recalled that Obama's best ads are REBUTTALS. I liked his response AD to the 3AM ad, I liked his'out of touch' ads to mcCain and I certainly like this new one on Fundamentals..with the words that job out about job losses, companies tanking and McCain being unable to fix what he does not consider broken.

Obama is the signature to his campaign...he is what is memorable.

The ads are adjuncts to the central message they are not the core message.

This may not be a traditional or conventional way to use media ads in this age of 'branding' but it works for Obama..since he, himself is the brand this campaign is about American beliefs, American ideas, American dreams & hopes and how his policies will restore those.

His message is positive ..his ads are rebuttals, and he has an innovative use of media ads, that basically are ropeadope counterpunches.

I recall Hillary's first punch was calling obama 'naive' he responded by saying she wanted more of the BushCheney policies.

Remember her umbrage at that?

Recall her calling out Albright for reinforcement?

Obama is the clean up man.

I think this was a mistake to release this, unless it's really for the McCain Camp, because the McCain camp can use the $40M number to say Obama is trying to "buy Florida".

There is no reason to be so open with strategy, unless being open is the strategy (if you get what I'm saying).

I really hope the Obama/Biden folks are keeping an eye on Michigan, because it seems to be THE State McCain/Palin have targeted to try and flip. It's polling closer and closer...

I know Obama and Biden have been there a lot lately, so maybe they do know what's going on.

How much of that $40M was primary monies already spent there?

I think it's more psych-ops than anything else.

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With economy tanking perhaps the Obama camp thinks they can win Florida.

i believe Obama will win the Kerry states + Iowa and NM.

which means Obama just has to win 1 more red state.

FL, CO, NV, OH, VA

he wins just 1 of those he wins the election. if he wins 5 of them he wins a mandate and

i say focus on those 5

It would be tied at 269 if he wins NV + Iowa, don't forget my home state of NC, though i do think if he is winning in NC its already over since he would already have won VA if he is doing well in NC.

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Let's not forget that McCain is now limited to $84 million.

With all of his current ads (one a day at the least), it seems like he's spending it as fast as he can. He can't match $39 million in one state, so my bet is that he's going to rely on MachiRovian tactics in a big way from here on.

But the RNC isn't. I would think even Obama's 39 million will be partly DNC money.

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If anyone can turn out those 500,000 African American voters and 900,000 young people that didn't vote in the last election it is Obama. These are voters that aren't likely to be strayed by T.V. commercials or anything else McCain has to offer.

The republicans have two choices either find more voters in FL or find a way to disenfranchise voters.

We all know they are going to try to do the latter, just like they normally do.

By having three goddamned machines in a "poor" district...

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Yup!!
Too few machines disenfranchises minority voters every single time.

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I do wonder how many of the 500,000 African American voters also in the 900,000 young voters.

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Not a lot. Maybe 20-25%? Most minorities that are disenfranchised are the working poor between 34-55 years of age. They work hard and do not have time to stand in line at the polls. They generally go early before work and often cannot cast a vote until after being in line 2-3 hours if they are the first ones there.

We here stories darn near every election day as well about judges saying the polls can remain open pass 7-8pm in minority communities because the lines are soooo long and folks have been waiting for 3-4 hours to vote.

These are not young people for the most part.

what people don't get is in 2000 AA came out strong for Gore in Florida - they were totally disenfranchised everyone talks about Butterfly votes in Palm Beach but noone mentions the 23,000 AA votes tossed in Duval County because they were overvotes - THe Voter follow ballot instructions and filled out Gore in Presidental spot and then also wrote Gore at bottom of ballot.
Perfectly legal votes that would have given Gore the election were NEVER counted. (not RECOUNTED BUT NEVER COUNTED) - ANd this doesn't even bring up the intimitation that many faced on election day 2000

In 2004 AA did not come out for Kerry in Florida.
who would blame them.
I imagine this time they are coming out

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Yes, people forget the results of Frances Berry's commission. It was awful how much disenfranchisement went on.

The GOP stole the vote and Kathryn Harris totally failed her fiduciary responsibility to the voters.

How about a Dem ad aimed at Republicans...

THEY THINK YOU'RE STUPID
Every day, the Republicans spin more and more blatant lies about John McCain's and Sarah Palin's records. [show quick montage McCain/Palin fiction vs. fact examples] The facts are in the official records, on the videotape -- very easy to check. Except John McCain and the Republicans are counting on you not doing that. They're banking on you just trusting them. Believing whatever they say if they say it often enough. You see, they think you're dumb enough to fall for the scam.

Think for yourself. Prove them wrong on November 4.

In the video, Plouffe says that there are 500,000 already REGISTERED African-American voters who didn't vote in 2004 and over a million already REGISTERED young voters who didn't vote in 2004. George Bush won Florida by something like 330,000 votes in 2004 and won by 1 vote (Justice Kennedy) in 2000. So FL is winnable.

Go over to the Obama site. They've really got it together when it comes to the ground game. I'm impressed. The next two weeks are critical--do what you can to donate or volunteer. Don't wait until after the election to wish you had.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/actioncenter

I just gave $25 bucks, so the they only have $38,000,275.00 to go. Come on TPM, help Obama out!

Wonderful way to go,,,,, bleed the Beast white,,,, bring out the Social Security privatization frontal assault and drive Geezer & Co crazy.

The Social Security thingy is also well suited for Ohio demographics as well.

Great victories come only to those willing to take great risks.

Fuck prevent defense, fuck playing nice, fuck holding anything back at all.

Put it all out there - every dime, every drop of blood, every last breath in our bodies.

The only thing that's going to win this is going All In.

Maybe the 39 mils he is talking about is the entire sum since the end of the primaries in June. It then boils down to 6.5 mil/month, still an impressive sum but not that overwhelming.

As someone who lives here in Florida, I can vouch for the amount of money, people and resources being put in play here by the Obama campaign. Here in Hillsborough County (Tampa) alone, we have four field offices and one central office. When I stopped by one yesterday to drop off some supplies, I was amazed at the number of volunteers there at 2pm on a work day. (The paid staff was off at training.)

These offices are located in key areas of the community, in pretty visible locations. The number of Obama tv ads has been steady for several months. The enthusiasm is palpable.

And the GOTV is extremely active, with groups doing neighborhood, house to house, canvassing every weekend.

On the flip side, with the exception of some tv ads that started running this past month, there is little visible activity coming from the McCain campaign at all. He has made a couple of appearances, and done some fundraising, but the turnout has been less than spectacular.

I am very optimistic.

Well, if they're going to make a big investment on one state, I'm just glad it's not Ohio. Can't count on that one.

Florida is a good choice. McCain can't win without it.

I don't think there going to skimp in Ohio. Maybe a bit more reliance on outside (union) organization there, but I'm sure the bill is steep there too. I think Plouffe singled it out because FL is the largest battleground state, and so the figure is esp impressive, plus they wanted to send the message that they don't rely on breathless instant analysis about where he should focus.

Love that Plouffe -- no slickness at all, smart, awake to the substantive themes and grand ambition of the campaign employing him.

And we know they're blanketing VA, NV, PA.

It's a lavish spending strategy.

One reason I think they are dead serious is the fact that Bill Clinton will begin his first real campaigning for Obama in Florida on Sept 29.

I think Bill and Hillary could help sway more conservative DEMS, Jewish voters, Hispanic voter and older white women to vote for Obama if they put in a major effort.

Here is an one the ground view. I currently as I write this have a GOTV voter registration rally at my office. We started a little after noon today and have registered 150 new voters in the last two hours. Our goal was 50.

NEW VOTERS

We have two campaign workers here but the effort is supported by folks here in the office... we have cold drinks and snacks we have been giving out. We can win Florida if we continue to work the ground game.

Donated another $100. Here's hoping...

New CNN poll came out a little while ago with Florida at a 48/48 tie. McCain's campaign must be cleaning out their pants right about now.

remember that Obama's campaign knows something we don't - they have their own internal poll numbers, which differ from the public state and national polls. They pay more for them and they are more detailed, and are more accurate. So if Obama is spending $39 million in Florida, it's because it's winnable and within striking distance. It also forces McCain to spend money competing with the crushing level of spending Obama is making there.

And I gave four times this week so I'm good with Obama!

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