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Nielsen: McCain Topped Obama's Huge Convention Audience

Nielsen's detailed ratings on McCain's speech last night are now available, and they're eye-opening. McCain's speech was watched by half a million more than Obama's was...

More than 38.9 million people tuned in for coverage of the final night of the GOP convention. In comparison, Barack Obama's acceptance speech at the Democrats' convention drew 38.4 million viewers.

For the third night in a row, more Women (19.2 million) than men (17.9 million) tuned in to the RNC coverage. Still, McCain's speech drew significantly more men than Obama's acceptance speech (16.2 million). In contrast, Obama drew more women (19.9 million) than McCain (19.2 million).

White viewers also flocked to their TV's for McCain's speech (32.2 million vs. 27 million for Obama). But among African Americans, the reverse was true: 7.5 million African Americans watched Obama's speech last week, while just 3.1 million tuned in for McCain's speech.

And here's a fun factoid: More women watched Obama's speech (19.9 million) than watched Sarah Palin's (19.5 million) last night, which is perhaps understandable given that Obama is the top guy and Palin is in the number two slot.

Also, you have to imagine that Palin's presence on the GOP ticket helped boost McCain's female audience, which checked in at a pretty high 19.2 million.


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I guess, given the size of the audience, that it was good for Obama and bad for McCain that he gave such a dud of a speech.

I agree. My question is: How many of them are first time viewers or leisurely followers of the campaign? How many of them may be swayed by his POW-ness because (unlike most TPM'ers) they have not heard it ad nauseum?

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McCain's numbers were inflated by Obama supporters who tuned in to watch.

Plus, the more people pay attention to this election the more likely Obama will win. Go Nielsen!!!

yeah I dont see how more people watching McCain's speech is good. If anything McCain would have been better off with on one watching his speech.

Chris Matthews vs. Pat Buchanan

But, I think they counted PBS viewers for McCain's speech and not for Obama's speech. I've lost the link, but if I remember right, if they had counted PBS for Obama, the total would have been more like 42 million.

"that it was good for Obama and bad for McCain that he gave such a dud of a speech."

YEP, and I hope all these viewers saw all the sleeping people in the 94.6% WHITE audience.

I think everybody's getting too excited by these numbers -- on both sides.

Remember, more than 100 million people voted in 2004. Given the state of the country, the general sense of interest, and the massive voter registration / GOTV effort from the Obama team, that number is likely to increase by a decent amount, maybe to 110 or 115?

In other words, assuming most of the same people watched both conventions, most voters didn't watch any of these speeches. More will probably see highlights or read something, but still...

The media (including TPM) tend to be much too wrapped up in the made-for-TV aspects of the campaign, practically ignoring the ground game that will actually win or lose it. That's why Obama's (directly-controlled) money advantage is important. That's where his campaign is different from past Dems. The one thing that worries me about Palin is that she seems to have energized the Repub shock troops to make a fight of it on the ground; I take some comfort in the fact that McCain's a lousy manager running a lousy campaign on most fundamentals.

Excellent! The more people who actually saw how awful this ticket is, the fewer will fall for the spin about it.

On the plus side, McCain's speech really sucked bigtime as did Cindy McCain's intro. The more people who saw that travesty, the better. Perhaps this bodes well for a post convention poll-dip.

Amusing. When you were supporting Clinton, you were much more realistic and less wishful in your thinking.

McCain did something I was always hoping Clinton would do and she never did. He started specifically calling out the agencies and programs that are broken. For average Joes like me, that's a big step up from talking about a need for change.

I'm guessing his bounce will give him a real lead for the first time.

I'd like to sit and listen to a speech written and delivered by McCain. I know most politicans have speech writers, and that the the candidate owns it by giving it, I'd just like to hear McCain give a speech in his own words.

"Goddamn kids get off my lawn!!"

"I was a POW!!"

LOL!

Obama's supporters are more web savvy. I wonder how many watched on the web?

I love this. It's the same exercise we went through when Bush beat Gore and Kerry. Disbelief. Explanations. Grousing about the numbers. Spinning the numbers. Let's get some spin ready about how it's a good thing Obama has fallen behind in the national polls and electoral vote models in case we need it this month.

I think it's a valid point...I know a lot of people who missed it but said 'I'll watch it on Youtube'. In any event, I hope more people did watch the McCain speech...it was garbage.

I think it's a valid point...I know a lot of people who missed but said 'I'll watch it on Youtube'. In any event, I hope more people did watch the McCain speech...it was garbage.

I wonder if they were factoring in all those "watch parties." I mean, they had one in a huge auditorium in the town where I live.

I'm sure they didn't. Nor did they factor in C-SPAN and PBS, and I'm sure Obama supporters are more likely to watch on those channels to avoid the talking heads.

Not that it matters either way, Obama's speech was a homerun, McCain's was a soggy slice of white bread.

Likewise. There were at least 200 people who probably would still have watched on individual sets if they were at home. Maybe Republicans had speech-watching parties, but I haven't heard of them. Also, whoever said Obama supporters are much more likely to watch on the web have a point.

Yep. I was at a watch party with about 40 people, and it was C-Span all night. Excellent point.

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I have a question: how was McCain in 2000 as a speech maker?

I didn't really follow the Republican primaries that year, so I don't have any recollection.

Anyone?

He was better in 2000, at least in terms of technique. He didn't stumble through the text as he does now, nor did he flash those creepy robotic grins at all the wrong moments or make strange, semi-involuntary gestures. The content was better, because he could afford actually being something of a maverick then (of course, this was a highly relative condition); it engaged and animated him. And, perhaps most tellingly, he did not try to cash in the POW chip quite so much.

The news on Andrew Sullivan's page seems to suggest that Obama's viewership number did not include PBS audiences whereas the McCain & Palin audience numbers released now include PBS.
(http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/viewer-numbers.html)

I suppose Obama was still the most widely watched, though Palin has been much more talked about since then...

I saw that earlier with Palin's. What seems to be happening is Obama's audience was figured using straight Nielson ratings, while for some reason, everyone has been "estimating" PBS's and C-SPAN overnight (which they don't do), which has inflated her numbers. I figured McCain's was the same, so I haven't even bothered to look into it.

The more people who saw McCain's speech the better as far as I'm concerned. Nonetheless, I'll hand it to them - by creating such a stir over the VP pick they at least gave themselves a bigger audience and a better chance. Still, their candidate didn't perform last night.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

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I'm just reminding everyone that tpm published links (yesterday) to focus groups showing that independents and women were not impressed with Palin. I wonder what they thought of her boss.

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I'm also going to venture that folk watching Obama's speech were DEMs and Indies . . . The folk watching McInsane were REPs, Indies and DEMs.

Also I'm guessing that . . . as deadflowers pointed out . . . There were one or two million web-viewers watching Obama.

Remember, people also watch NASCAR to see the crashes.

I wonder how big a lead-in opening night with the Superbowl champs gave him, and how many of those tuned out after a few minutes.

I wouldn't completely discount this however. It very well may be people giving McCain one final chance to see what he has to say for his party.

"When you live in a box," you lose the ability to read a teleprompter and deliver a speech.....

I'm glad the world got to see that garbage...

Deadflowers I'm sure that Obama's supporters are more web savvy, but John Mccain came on directly after the NFL season kickoff on NBC. So his viewing base was most likely larger than Obama's and he only out drew him by half a mill....

Bottom line people tuned in soley for Obama last thursday, vs. McCain in a lot of households was just on after the game....

Honestly, it doesn't surprise me. After Obama made such a brilliant speech, I can imagine more people would want to tune in to see if McCain could meet the challenge and expectations. Unfortunately for him, he didn't.

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obama is in trouble.

the polls are tightening (for reasons which baffle me), people thin palin is actually a good pick and now more people are watching mccain than obama.

yep...we're going to get just what we deserve when we elect four more years of the last 8.

just once iwish the american people would wake up and see whats going on...

Talk to me when McCain is able to break 50%.

Typically, polls taken after a convention are considered to be that candidate's ceiling. Obama broke 50 while having McCain step all over his convention bounce. Let's see how McCain does in the next couple days, shall we?

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i usually don't pay attn to polls but when sarah palin is more popular than barack obama that tells you something is seriously wrong in this country...

maybe i'm just burned out and need a break from political junk for a while but i have a bad feeeling about how this is going.

Take a deep breath. There's nothing wrong with folks tuning in to get a glimpse of Palin. And there's nothing wrong with having to work for an Obama win. Try canvassing or phone banking this weekend for Obama. That will settle you down.

Go and look at State polling. The news is both more real and better on the eye.

Just because more people watched McCain, what makes you think that automatically equates to more people voting for McCain? It's just like when people cite favorability ratings - just because someone has a favorable impression of somone - does that mean that they'll automatically vote for them? Can't you feel favorable about somone and still conclude that their opponent is a better choice for the job?

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Well, your concern is duly noted. So, I expect that you have made an additional donation to the Obama campaign.

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Well, your concern is duly noted. So, I expect that you have made an additional donation to the Obama campaign.

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sent him some $ last night. it didnt really make me feel bettr, tho.

Lead-in from football on NBC.

Uhh...did that include football ending and IMMEDIATELY going to the RNC?

NBC had 13.6 million watching the game, with 8.1 million watching the RNC.

Fair to say a good chunk stuck around for the speech, but hard to tell.

CBS and ABC both had 5 million each... but FOX, not surprisingly, was the winner of all - with ease.

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We need to see numbers on both speeches that exclude NBC (but leave in CBS and ABC) so we can control for the NFL game.

I definitely wouldn't have watched if it hadn't been for the football game.

OOOoo Biden is doing GREAT here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=955Y3NJTRIE

Damn!

Just amazing.

Let's see Palin do THAT. Did he even have a teleprompter? It sure didn't look like it.

That's what someone who's ready to step in as President looks like!

When Russian tanks were at their door, the Georgians didn't call Sarah Palin! They called Joe Biden.

GIVE 'EM HELL, JOE!!!

That's just what I was hoping we'd get from Biden.

Joe's killing it.

They need to sick Biden on Palin already. Make it a VP fight instead of allowing her to keep targeting Obama. She wants to be treated like one of the big boys so let's have at it.

"Sarah Palin's talking about the surge? Does she even know the difference between Sunni and Shiite? She hadn't even traveled outside the country until last year!"

Then after she shrinks away a bit, we can go back to aiming both barrels at John.

Thank you for that. I think I'm in love....

That made my heart feel good after listening to the Republicans blab for the last 4 days.

39.8 million watched last night. 19.2M were women. 17.9M were men. What were the other 1.8M?

Also I would bet there were more Dems that watched all three speeches.

Obama is actually up to 42.5million if you include PBS estimates.

Not a big deal, in my opinion, but accurate numbers are always good.

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How may Televisions were just left on after the footall game?

I am not sure that question matters. I used to live in a Nielsen household in 2005 (in other words, comparatively recently), and they tracked our viewing based on diaries that we had to record according to 15 minute chunks of time. In other words, it is not as if the Nielsen folks had some sort of tracking device hooked up to our television. Remember, Nielsen monitors viewers, not just television sets. If they just had a tracking device on the box, how would they know how many of us were sitting in front the set during which programs? Instead, they required that each member of the household fill out a diary about what s/he individually was watching so that they knew that three of us were watching show X during a time slot while another two folks in the household were watching show Y at the same time on a different set.

A television left on but unwatched would not appear in the diaries, so it would not get counted.

No way to tell why these folks watched. True, lots of publicity but does not means folks were convinced on anything. Best metric may be short term fund raising?

Chronospark has it exactly right.

McCain was always going to get at least the same viewership as Obama, because anyone who watched Obama was going to be interested in seeing how McCain stacked up.

That could have played to Grampy's advantage if he had held his own, but since he didn't, it doesn't.

That's my thinking as well.
I watched that slime fest so I would know for certain when the excuse of "taken out of context" was thrown around afterwards.
Man, what a hangover the next day.

WHERE IS SARAH PALIN?

Now, instead of "middle of next week," Sarah Palin refuses to meet the press "until she's ready."

We do not have the four years on the job it takes for her to be "ready."

It is unacceptable for a major candidate to dodge the press simply because she thinks she's "not ready."

This is for voters to decide, not Sarah Palin.

Raise the roof this weekend, as we did over Labor Day to do the vetting the McCain campaign could not be bothered to perform.

WHERE IS SARAH PALIN?

today i heard a few thousand people chaning "JOHN MC-CAIN! JOHN MC-CAIN!" at the wisconsin rally.

almost 40 million people watched his speech last night.

he sounds like a celebrity.

They were chanting? Like brainwashed cult members?

A celebrity? Like the people who appear frequently on Saturday Night Live and the Tonight Show?

POLITICO made the point that the NFL game inflated the viewership on NBC. Add to that the differences in the PBS/C-SPAN numbers I think Senator Obama still had the biggest draw. Given how bad the McCain speech was, a large number of viewers is not a BAD THING.

The more people saw McCain's performace the better it is for Obama. But what's really grating is that Palin is out attacking Obama, but hasn't faced a single question from a serious reporter. The campaign line that she needs to talk to the voters is the ultimate Orwellian inversion of reality. The voters need to question Palin.

If McCain and the Republicans win with this crap, the Bush years will look good in comparison to what a McCain/Palin administration will do the America's prestige.

Prestige? If they win and McCain dies we will be well on the way to fascism.

Prestige? If they win and McCain dies we will be well on the way to fascism.

I watched Obama's speech on PBS with over a THOUSAND OTHER PEOPLE in a theatre.

Somehow, I doubt that the many, many campaign-organized watch parties--something the campaign pushed very hard--all over the country were factored in to the estimated viewership.

I watched Obama's speech on PBS with over a THOUSAND OTHER PEOPLE in a theatre.

Somehow, I doubt that the many, many campaign-organized watch parties--something the campaign pushed very hard--all over the country were factored in to the estimated viewership.

I watched Obama's speech on PBS with over a THOUSAND OTHER PEOPLE in a theatre.

Somehow, I doubt that the many, many campaign-organized watch parties--something the campaign pushed very hard--all over the country were factored in to the estimated viewership.

I watched Obama's speech on PBS with over a THOUSAND OTHER PEOPLE in a theatre.

Somehow, I doubt that the many, many campaign-organized watch parties--something the campaign pushed very hard--all over the country were factored in to the estimated viewership.

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Well in 04 122 million people voted. So 38 million watched for both the repubs and dems. That means we are playing for the 50 million plus low information voters and middle of the road voters. Odds are more will vote this time. What this says is that the partisan dems and partisan republicans balance out pretty much. It's 1/3, 1/3 and 1/3. Hopefully, obama will be able to sway the middle and low info voters in light of mcbush's and rambo's comments and conduct and how the middle view a third term of the king. Odds are obama takes it, but it sure won't be a cake walk.

It's good to hear that both sides were watched. The contrasts of the candidates and the parties couldn't be more different. The record donations to the Obama campaign and the record number of first-time donors is quite telling.

Polls taken immediately after the first of the two conventions show a ceiling for that party's candidate but the polls right after the second convention do not.

For example, in 1988, Dukakis led by 17 after his convemtion. Bush pulled into a tie or a 1 point lead right after his convention and ended up winning by 8 points.

As long as McCain is tied or ahead by 1 point come Monday morning, he is likely to win the election based on the historical tendency of Republicans to gain ground in September and October.

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1. what evidence do you have for your ceiling argument. I see both candidates at around 45 with 10 in the middle in play. Mcbush hasn't broken 45 or 46 in polls and I surmise that he won't by monday.

2. Obama is no dukakis, or mondale, or kerry, or clinton for that matter. There has not been a campaign run like obama's campaign in as long as I can remember and based on historical writings. I would throw out the history books on this one. It's trying to mix apples and oranges.

You're dealing with a ridiculously small sample size, one so small that there are nowhere near enough data points to prove your assertion, right or wrong.

It's good to hear that both sides were watched. The contrasts of the candidates and the parties couldn't be more different. The record donations to the Obama campaign and the record number of first-time donors is quite telling.

It is so simple, it is sad that no one gets it.

Repugs wouldn't watch that terrorist Muslim liberal. But us dumb ass liberals want to know what that dried up dingy hate and warmonger is up to.

Ya, I know he was a POW

I also wouldn't discount that, by now, almost all schools are in session. I know several college students who were assigned to watch McCain's speech. I know that wouldn't count for everything, but still ...

Also, I think we can't discount the watch parties where people would have gotten together to watch Obama's speech (more as an event/celebration). These viewers, I think, are just TV sets, not pairs of eyes.

Either way ... isn't it exciting that so many people are interested in this election? I hope this turns into votes (more for Obama, of course).

The whole situation concerns me. Once again, we started with a substantial lead that has only been whittled away with constant ad hominem attacks against the Democratic candidate. Once again I hear the constant drum beat of why these developments really do not matter because the other side will simply destroy itself with the voters. Once again I hear the spin as to how we are doing better than we did with the last lost election. Once again I hear how we have a different candidate with different tactics and a better, higher message.

GET IT THROUGH YOUR THICK SKULLS. IT IS TIME TO GET OUT THERE AND TEAR THE OTHER SIDE APART. YOU CAN DO THAT BY USING THE TRUTH, BEING CIVIL AND TOTALLY DESTROYING THE STRONG POINTS OF YOUR OPPONENTS. YES IT IS NEGATIVE. HOWEVER, THE NEGATIVES OF A CANDIDATE WHEN IT INVOLVES LIES, ETHICAL ISSUES AND PANDERING CONSTITUTE LEGITIMATE POINTS.

How could that happen, football lead in or not? IIRC, the NE Patriots had a preseason game as the lead in to Obama's speech in the Boston market at least. Also, I guess the silver lining is the fact that with the bigger viewership, McCain's mediocre performance let more people see him stumble.

Bloomberg:

Nielsen didn't include viewership estimates for Public Broadcasting Service stations or C-SPAN, which also aired the political conventions.

end quote

Somebody just wanted the headline: McCain convention speech most watched ever! So they gerrymandered some data together, counted all the TVs left on after football, and there you go!

And yes I have my tinfoil hat on. Fucking chemtrails all over the place.

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I hope people know how much Cindy's outfit cost. $250,000 for the earrings and north of 60K for everything else.

Actually, the AP is reporting that Obama and McCain drew roughly the same number of viewers--42.4 million apiece. Obama had 500,000 more viewers on PBS than McCain did, which makes up the difference.

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From the black is white department---Rasmussen today reports McCain is starting the beginning of a bounce----yet in the first day of polling which included his speech---obama went from 48-46 to (statistically meaningless) 49-46. Just because a lot of people watched, does not guarantee they were all that impressed.

Two important points about apples to apples:

1. On the weekend between the conventions, as part of a normal annual adjustment they make at Labor Day, Neilson added 2 million familes to the ratings multiplier, so McCain had a lower "rating" but "more" familes. They were playing out of a bigger sandbox.

2. The Obama numbers excluded PBS; the McCain numbers did not exclude PBS. I for one watched PBS, as did many others, because they had better coverage than the CNN and MSNBC, and were on more than the one hour that the networks were on. It's unclear if C-Span was included.

So, once again, the facts are not what the headlines suggest. Same old same old.

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Nielsen TV changed their measurement system between Obama's speech and McCain's. Obama may have had more viewers than McCain, despite press reports to the contrary.

The Washington Post has article loudly proclaiming McCain's ratings victory. Then, buried in the middle of the story, is this essential piece of information:

"Nielsen gave McCain and Palin the advantage of a larger sandbox in which to play than the one the Democrats got one week earlier. Nielsen's updated universe estimates -- a.k.a. the number of TV households in the country -- took effect on Monday. That TV universe grew by nearly 2 million homes, which adds substantially to the number of actual viewers in the pool."

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/05/AR2008090503406.html

So unless you believe the actual number of TV households increased by nearly 2 million in the space of a week, Nielsen used two different and inconsistent measurement sticks for the two speeches.

Last week, Nielsen assumed a total of 112.8 million TV households in the country to calculate Obama's 38.4 million viewership number.

This week, Nielsen assumed a total of 115.5 million TV households in the country to calculate McCain's 38.9 million viewership number.

And what if you compare apples to apples instead of apples to oranges? Using the above numbers, what percentage of TV households watched each candidate's speech?
Obama: 34.04%
McCain: 33.97%

I am no expert on either statistics or Nielsen methodology, but it seems to me that the "McCain had more viewers" storyline might not be true.

Flash Gordon wrote, "Nielsen TV changed their measurement system between Obama's speech and McCain's. Obama may have had more viewers than McCain, despite press reports to the contrary..."

Wow. Is anyone reporting this? I mean, other than burying it in the middle of a Washington Post story, as you show in your link?

This seems like a truly egregious error on the part of the media. I've seen a dozen or more mentions in the press and on TV to McCain's larger viewing audience. Anyway to get the media to make the correction?????

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Linguist wrote: Any way to get the media to make the correction?????

I have written to the Washington Post ombudsman, as well as directly to the reporter whose name is on the story.

I also wrote to Josh's comments/news/tips e-mail.

If your local paper or a small blog is reporting the false story, I suggest writing to them directly and correcting them. Let them know that more than half a million of McCain's measured viewers are due solely to Nielsen's shift.

As for a large news source like MSNBC or CNN, I don't know how to get their attention. It would take reporting from the likes of TPM to get their attention, which is one of the reasons I wrote to the TPM tip line.

Anyone have any other suggestions?

The number of people who watched McCain and/or Obama and/or Palin indicates NOTHING. As many have said, I too watched both McCain and Palin to see the lines they'd be taking not because I was remotely interested in supporting them. Then there's the question of how viewers were counted; I believe that figure is getting adjusted even as you read this.
Also, many more people probably felt they knew where Obama was coming from after the very long Democratic primary campaign. McCain may have been a bit more of a curiosity. And Palin! Noone knew anything about her and so watching her talk just made good sense for responsible voters. I just managed to keep my dinner down during her speech. And I'm in the group supposedly impressed by one of our gender. Not.

The conventions were smashing successes breaking rating records, proof positive that our system works! Perhaps, but not as well as you might think.

McPain vs O’Biden Ratings: Who Was Really Watching?

http://www.medianewsandviews.com

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