New Polls Show Deadlocked Race In Key States
A new round of CNN swing state polls holds encouraging news for Obama: It finds that McCain's waning convention bounce hasn't translated into leads in key states, and indeed, Obama is leading in two key states and has pulled into a tie in Florida.
• In Florida, it's a 48%-48% tie. Most other polls recently have given the lead to McCain here, but this could be evidence of a shift happening.
• In Indiana, McCain has a close but seemingly secure 51%-45% lead, with a ±3.5% margin of error.
• In North Carolina, McCain has a bare edge of 48%-47%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.
• In Ohio, we have a rare poll with Obama ahead: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, with a ±3% margin of error. The last eight polls before this one have put McCain up. CNN's last poll from two weeks ago also had Obama up by a two-point margin.
• In Wisconsin, which has gone Dem by less than one point in the past two elections, Obama has a 50%-47% lead, with a ±3% margin of error.
Four of these five states voted twice for President Bush, and have generally been GOP-leaning -- but McCain currently only has any kind of halfway-decent lead in one of them, according to these polls. McCain's convention bounce seems to have run out, putting us back where we were before the two conventions: A very close race all across the country.
Bye bye bounce!
September 17, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
makes the $39 million possible ad buy in FL not as crazy, to say the least.
September 17, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. I have to say that FL, to my immense surprise, might well be the best investment of scarce resources.
September 17, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, those are scarce resources if the 39 million is coming from the piggy bank on hand.
If, however, the $39 million is the total that will be spent, some of it has, no doubt, already been spent.
I didn't watch the video, so I don't know which intepretation is appropriate.
While I like your new avatar, I miss the bagpiper you.
September 17, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is HyperRevue's fault. His new avatar made me want to get a new one. In fact, the last time I changed it was because of Genghis' new look. I guess that I am just a hopeless slave of fashion...
September 17, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
:)
Looking good...
September 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a fellow Catholic, I have to say that while I like your new avatar, I have to admit that I kind of miss the bagpiper, also.
September 17, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, Chris Matthews is blowing up a Repub on tv right now.
September 17, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Argh.
Give me a quick recap. Please!
September 17, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republican Congressman Cantor is his name. This is going to be a YouTube hit. lol.
September 17, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love Chris. Not coz he has any integrity but no one knows which role he'll play each day. Talk about a maverick, you have one right there.
It's funny to watch him make obsure historical references, literally spit on the faces who are unfortunate to join him at his studio desk and muster fake outrage, whenever he feels like.
He is a classic and a original cartoon on television, thorough worthless entertainment.
September 17, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate Matthews' enthusiasm -- he just loves politics, and respects those who twist things to their benefit. He's like a crazy kid with ADD who just discovered CSPAN. He's a blowhard with no-depth analysis, but man he loves it.
September 17, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am really astounded that IN should prove a tougher nut to crack than NC. In fact, I find that so counterintuitive that I really have to conclude that one of those numbers is wrong - either IN is actually closer than that or NC is actually more wide open than that poll would suggest.
September 17, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/
Voter Registration as of 09/17/2008 Democratic: 2,701,963 Republican: 1,946,638 Libertarian: 1,119 Unaffiliated: 1,311,062
NC has a large AA population
a large younger population
and a lot of people with college education.
It wont be easy and it might not be this year but NC is turning blue quickly.
September 17, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
NC will be going to Obama. His voter registration is paying off big time. He is organized and the Senate race is helping him as well. Don't give up hope for NC.
September 17, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be very clear, I am not giving up hope on NC. I am just saying that we should either be 1) more hopeful about IN than this poll would suggest or 2) more pessimistic about NC than this poll would suggest. I am not taking a firm stand one way or the other on which of those two options is the likelier. If, as you say, NC stands a good chance of going to Obama, then all I am saying is that we should be more bullish about IN as well.
September 17, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
well if your going by bumper stickers only then Obama is going to win by a landslide in NC. I see Obama stickers 20-1 compared to McCain. heh
September 17, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in Indiana, there seems to be a lot of support for Obama and not much enthusiasm for McCain. If we can get college students to actually go out and vote, Obama might be able to squeak by with a victory.
At least they should come here and force McCain-Palin roadshow to spend their time here.
September 17, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
You'd be surprised at what's hiding in their histories.
IN was the biggest Klan stronghold in the nation not so long ago.
NC has a long-standing progressive tradition going back to the white Populist/black Republican fusion governments of the 1890's.
Plus, Barack does better in new-economy states, which NC is much more than IN.
September 17, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well . . .
a) North Caorlina's African American population is just a teensy bit higher than Indiana's, as a percentage of total poplation (21.6% vs. 8.4%);
b) Most North Carolinians who have a party are Democrats, even if many of them only vote that way in state races; and,
c) We've added half a million people since 2004, most of in the high-tech Triangle area and most of them from pinko-commie liberal fag states up north.
I've been a little taken aback by how Gunsel Gidget has brought back that ol' jihadi spirit to the local fundies, but I'd definitely say we're more likely to flip than Indiana.
September 17, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
From your lips to God's own ears. NC has 15 electoral votes, compared to IN's 11, so I would much rather have your state if I had to choose. That said, Obama has actually lead in various polls in IN at various times. By contrast, even with all of those fine points you right boast of in NC, he has never lead in any poll in NC (unless you want to count one quirky Zogby online poll). As such, I am sticking to my contention that it is hard for me to imagine an electoral map in which IN stay red but NC tips blue.
September 17, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
If its within two before election day, his ground game here wins it for him. Its that big. I will say, though, that I strongly suspect that if Obama wins NC, he won't need it to get to 270.
I don't know what he's got going on on the ground in Indiana, so I can't speak to it. Indeed, I haven't even been in the state since the eighties when I had to drive from Michigan City to Kentucky on U.S. 421 one fine summer day.
Corn. Much corn. And soybeans. Lots of soybeans.
September 17, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Completely off topic: sometimes, I really love Tweety.
He just compared George Bush's (non)response to the current financial crisis to his (non)response to Katrina. He's a strange guy, but at times, he really has the ability to distill certain situations in a beautiful way.
September 17, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
He made Rep Cantor look stupid. I guess we now know why McCain didnt pick him for VP.
September 17, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, that was Cantor? I missed the beginning of the segment, so I wasn't sure who the Republican was.
I know Wexler looked like he wanted to weigh in, but eventually just sat back and enjoyed it.
September 17, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really like Wexler. I was impressed with him at the RBC meeting back in May. I thought he would have been a good dark horse pick for veep.
September 17, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting! Shrub still is the president...
September 17, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who?
September 17, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah he was hammering away about how republicans are acting like they haven't been in charge the last 8 years.
September 17, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush was up 15 in Indiana at this same time in 2004.
September 17, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
These craven miscreants will stop at nothing to besmirch themselves, their campaign, and our nation itself in their unbridled, unethical, and immoral pursuit of power!
I have had it!
And don't call me a Fundamental either!
I am a person!
I reject and denounce being called a Fundamental.
I call on the mcShame campaign to apologize to Americans for calling them Fundamentals.
Add your voice here:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/i-denounce-and-reject-being-ca.php
September 17, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone see that clip with Palin?
Listening to her gives me the same feeling I get when I read a day old USA Today. Very vague and useless info.
September 17, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really, I thought she came off as much more impressive and polished in the recent clip than she did with Gibson. I thought that the line she was trying to sell in that clip was no more convincing today in her mouth than it was in McCain's yesterday, but I thought that, just in terms of inchoate impressions, she came off better in today's clip than she had in last week's.
September 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cannot tolerate her voice, so I can't stand to click on the videos.
September 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's like a parrot, isn't she? Flings words around but doesn't really appear knowledgeable. The people prepping her must be going nuts!
September 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've known African Grey parrots who, I'm sure, knew more about the meaning of the words they used than Gunsel Gidget does these days. But then, African Greys are a lot smarter than most Republican state legislators or political appointees to the Interior Department . . .
September 17, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't watch her. Infact, I may be among the very few politically involved folks who didn't watch her single speech ever, expect Gibson experts. She is utterly useless to political discourse by all objective accounts.
September 17, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
She IS bad. I shutter when I hear her say things like, "we're coming to shake things up in Washington."
It is the quickest way to boil my blood.
I hate few, but she is rising to almost make that list.
September 17, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are not alone. She comes on, off goes the volume. I will not be any vehicle for THAT...
September 17, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't watch her. In the Gibson interview, particularly in the infamous Bush doctrine segment, Palin reminded me, strongly, of pushy students who try to con me into giving them a particular grade, even though the individual and I both know the person doesn't deserve the grade, hasn't done the work for the grade, and isn't even remotely interested in the course material or anything related to it. They just want the grade.
The constant talking, the hedging, the challenging...all just an attempt to browbeat someone, and not an attempt to have a discussion. So I decided to not spend any more of my time on such an aggressive con.
September 17, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a lovely piece of art that needs to be disseminated (so long as you credit the 2008 copyright by Zina Saunders and include her website... below).
Shows you what the stakes are here:
http://www.zinasaunders.com/pages/illustration/images/palin-hunter.html
Wow! Quite a stunning image!
September 17, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, it is. And distressing, too.
September 17, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even more disturbing would be if they get their chance to eviscerate The Constitution:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/alaska-fiefdom-harbinger-of-th.php
September 17, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn! That's quite disturbing.
September 17, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sometimes the truth is disturbing.
September 17, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Touche!
September 17, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virginia was looking pretty good in recent polls, now we get one that shows McCain up by 9? WTF?
September 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's an outlier. No need to concern.
This has been a good poll day.
September 17, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, the interviews were done last week. It's a delayed release.
September 17, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Behold the differences wrought by likely voter vs registered voter methodologies. The Rasmussen poll from two days ago that had them tied and the PPP today that has Obama up by 2% are both "likely voter" surveys. The Christopher Newport U poll today that shows McCain up by 9% is a "registered voter" survey.
So, which are the more valuable date - the opinions of "likely" voters or of registered voters overall? I guess we will find out in a month and something.
September 17, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
good analysis. So a revved up McCain base could really swing things around, and quickly, in VA
September 17, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd swear I typed "more reliable data..." Oh well, I am sure that you all know what I meant.
September 17, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, something's up with that. There's another poll, today too, that was Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 46%.
September 17, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forget polls. Collectively may help a bit predicting the trend but individually they're useless.
I'm looking at this race on day-to-day news cycle. Wall Street lost 1000 points in three days, major firms going bankrupt, McLame was called out for lies by a bunch of old ladies on the view, it's established by some conservative commentrators Palin doesn't know shit, good indicator from this week's trend.
Last two weeks since the GOP convention were not good for Obama, but clearly he's made a quick and a clear recovery and seems to be taking the lead.
September 17, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, in my view, the Markets began to tank after Palin spoke at the RNC Convention.
Palin spoke
The bear awoke
It took a while for the voters to catch up to what any investors who aren't playing roulette with their money could see immediately.
September 17, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, when you factor in Nader, Barr and McKinney, Obama actually leads in Florida (O48% - M46%). I think that's a promising sign.
September 17, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
One wonders how many conservatives are taking a second look at Bob Barr now that Sarahcuda is going over like farts in church, and McLiar is clearly out of his domestic depth?
Makes you want to throw House Parties for Bob Barr...until you remember he was Prick In Chief during Bubbuh's impeachment, though you can't fault him for wanting a president (and lawyer) to follow the rule of law.
The polls are a five-car cluster-fuck in Panavision and Sensurround (who is old enough to remember the movies EarthQuake and Midway in Sensurround?). They do not factor in Obama's huge ground organization, something McMuleFritters does not have, and cannot now clap his hands together and replicate.
It's over. Someone please explain it to McHorseHockey.
September 17, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
As of this week John McCain has some serious problems as the election seems to be taking a dramatic shift. His election bounce seems to be fading. His own advisor Carly Fiorina doesn't believe Sarah Palin is competent enough to run a major corporation (so how could she run the U.S.A.?), and the economic news of the week has McCain's back against the wall and him on the defense. Since he believes "THE FUNDAMENTALS OF OUR ECONOMY IS STRONG" exactly what economy is he referring to???
Check out some interesting videos on the subject:
http://okwassup.blogspot.com
September 17, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink