New Polls Have Obama Running Strong In Key States
A new set of polls has good news for Barack Obama in four key battleground states:
• In Iowa, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004, a new CNN poll has Obama ahead of John McCain by a 55%-40% margin.
• In Minnesota, which went narrowly to Kerry, CNN has Obama up 53%-41%.
• In Ohio, where President Bush's narrow 2004 win sealed his overall victory, the CNN poll gives Obama a 47%-45% edge, within the ±3.5% margin of error.
• In North Carolina, which hasn't voted Dem since 1976, a Democracy Corps (D) poll gives John McCain a narrow advantage of 47%-44% -- and gives Democratic Senate challenger Kay Hagan a 50%-45% lead over GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole.
If Obama's leads in Iowa and Ohio were to hold through November, it would be impossible for John McCain to win unless he could pick up some Kerry states.
ROCK ON!! NC is looking pretty strong these days!
September 3, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, betcha if Hagan beats Dole, Obama beats McCain.
September 3, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The better news is the the NC survey was done August 20-26 so doesn't reflect Hill's, Bill's and Obama's speeches at convention or the Palin pick that has enthused the radical christian theocrats but no one else.
September 3, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow, that is even better, I cant wait to see what the newer polls will look like.
Who in the Hell Releases Their Oppo-Research
September 3, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some of the evangelical moms in NC think Palin needs to be home with her children. I'm not sure this choice will help McCain as much in the south as he thought it would.
September 3, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still maintain these polls mean little. They are underreportting those people who don't have landlines ( a younger demographic that favors Obama) and they are underestimating Obama's ground game.
Still, good news is always welcome.
September 3, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The underrepresentation of cell-only voters is not significant. When controlled for age, cell phone status is not predictive of candidate/party preferences. Pollsters adjust their samples to get to the approximate share of the electorate each age cohort is expected to comprise, a projection based not just on turnout in the last Presidential election, but also on data like increased young voter participation in the Democratic primaries this year.
There is no hidden reservoir of Obama support, unless it's his ground game, which is at least plausible. Don't sit around waiting for the magic cell phone voter fairy to deliver Obama a bunch of extra votes and put him over the top, because it's not happening.
September 3, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cell phone only are maybe factored in but the new voter registration of the Democratic ground game is essentially unreflected. While CNN uses registered voters the likely voter polls greatly underestimate the impact of young and newly registerd voters in the Obama numbers. He just needs to get them to vote and the polls will blow up.
September 3, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still maintain these polls mean little. They are underreportting those people who don't have landlines ( a younger demographic that favors Obama) and they are underestimating Obama's ground game.
Still, good news is always welcome.
September 3, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is idiotic?
Paging idiot
September 3, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
He can't find us TheraP, yell louder! How are ya?
September 3, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a must read article about Palin, a letter from a fellow Alaskan who gives her name and encourages us to Google her:
http://my2bucks.wordpress.com/2008/09/02/a-letter-from-someone-who-has-known-sarah-palin-since-1992/#comment-416
September 3, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great find. This is a great view of Sarah from an on-the-ground perspective.
September 3, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
My dearest Eric - there are other kinds of mathematics than that of numbers and the mathematics of the entire zeitgeist of America say: it's impossible for McLame to win.
:)
September 3, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, I love that term zeitgeist. You are totally on top of your game, you european loving liberal. We have got to win now.
September 3, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would just like to say that I really miss the avatars. I miss seeing all of your smiling faces (and Obama's, and Huey's, etc.)!
September 3, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, did someone explain what happened to them and I just missed it? They do serve a purpose. they make it much easier to get a sense of who was talking to who.
September 3, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I do too.
September 3, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I feel like I'm chatting with friends in a blackened room.
September 3, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
A good analogy, that. I am glad that ditching them makes the site run more smoothly, but I do miss them. Usually, when I come to a thread with a lot of posts, I scroll past most, and just stop to read the posts of certain people whose posts I have come to enjoy (such as yourself). Without the pics, I find it a lot hard to screen out the dross, so I end up just skipping threads with a lot of posts.
September 3, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! I was going to make a joke, as Severus Snape (the wizard) about using legilimens (wizard mind control), and it just wouldn't have worked.
But speaking of working, I imagine the site runs a lot faster now!
September 3, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
♪ I hate them at first. But then it became a way to identify people. Yes, I miss it too!
♪ This is the best I can do now. ♪
September 3, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ignore the polls...
Palin hype hits tonight...Ignore the polls...
Palin hype hits tonight...Ignore the polls...
Sorry, just doing a meditative chant in an attempt to prevent myself from getting hopes set too high too early.... back to the chant: ignore the polls...
September 3, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Make sure you check out the Chuck Todd/Mike Murphy/Peggy open mic moment on the TPM home page. Freaking classic! And oh so true. If only they'd say the same thing when they know they are live.
September 3, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The tone in Nooners' voice when she said: "it's over..."
Boy is she pissed! I bet every night she lights a black candle and tries her best to raise the zombie of Ronald Reagan to come save the Repug Party.
September 3, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gawd. Their ideal candidate. He'd certainly fit in nicely with all the other animated corpses at their convention this year.
And if she'd managed it this year, they could have summed up the choice before the voters as "'has brains' vs. 'eats brains.'"
September 3, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The hits just keep on coming. It's fantanstic. But this is also why the Palin pick was so awful. He's breaking apart a party that was already fractured.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
September 3, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah Danny... that's just so darn awful.
I may cry.
September 3, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know my heart is broken at the thought of it all...
September 3, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't understand a lot of it. Does anyone know if there's a transcript or video with subtitles anywhere?
September 3, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a rough and partial transcript based on what I heard. I didn't include the parts I couldn't really understand and I also didn't include the part where Murphy talks about blue state governors. (I think his point was that they are safer, better, picks and more likely to help a Republican win an election - eg, Romney)
Peggy: He should have let you rip.
Myrphy: It's not gonna work.
Peggy: It's over.
Chuck: I mean, is she really the most qualified women they could have turned to?
Peggy: The most qualified? No. I think they went for this - excuse me - political bulls**t about narratives...Everytime Republicans do that - because it's not where they live and it's not what they're good at - they blow it.
Murphy: You know what's the worst part about it....the greatness of McCain is no cynicism...and it's cynical.
Chuck: And as you called it, "gimmicky".
September 3, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's really rich to hear Nooners talk about a political narrative, like she didn't invent the fucking thing with Reagan.
Good lord, Peggy - what about those magic dolphins? That's not a political narrative?
Please. At least you have the decency to see someone's faults. Too bad about your own...
September 3, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
someone else's faults -
September 3, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's even funnier if you've read her column today. I will no longer believe a single word she says/writes.
September 3, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe it took you this long to come that conclusion.
I can't believe you ever believed Nooners, The Crazy Dolphin Reagan Corpse Humping Lady.
September 3, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. Just further proof that the talking heads on tv are full of you-know-what.
September 3, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh has added a transcript.
September 3, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is, to use the vernacular: Made. Of. WIN.
September 3, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still a ways to go... 3 debates is a long time. There will be ups and downs. But I feel confident that as long as Obama keeps doing what he is doing, there is nothing the right can do to stop him.
September 3, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey where'd everybodys icons go?
September 3, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seems the avatars were killing the bandwidth.
If a page has 100 posts, that means 100 additional server hits, less any cacheing, which, given their serves are offshore, is probably the issue they are having: der cache ist kaput. The overhead for these tiny icons is as big as the icons themsevles.
This has been a Marioth Meta-Moment.
September 3, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happens to the GOP brand in the aftermath of this horrible pick?
Did anyone in Camp McCain consider the down-ticket effects of this?
Is incumbent Sen Liddy Dole trailing and her challenger has broken 50%?
Honestly, now, despite everyting else, given the last 8 years, all I see are pigs flying and calls for a blizzard in hell. Unbelievable, but here we are!
September 3, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's strange, no? One would halfway expect McCain to conclude this trainwreck at his acceptance speech with something to the effect of "My Friends, we're no longer McCain/Palin '08: from now on, our act will be known as The Aristocrats."
September 3, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
I know - it kind of feels like the end of the Wizard of Oz!
September 3, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is what realignments look like folks. Some of us being on the other side of one twenty eight years ago. We went through all the stuff the R's are going through now. The denial, the clinging to the old tried and true electoral formulae long after they stopped working, the excitement over "bold" VP picks that turned out to be complete disasters as far as the rest of the country was concerned.
Who knew it tasted so sweet when you're on the other side of one?
September 3, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right.
September 3, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. We're winning the senate race in NC, and we're up 55-40 in Iowa???
September 3, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I definitely want to see dole packing her bags. I hope we get nc. We need 59 dem senators, plus the sanders to get 60.
By the way, why can't connecticut recall traitor joe now? He lied on his ballot registration paperwork claiming that he was an independent. In his speech last night he professed to be a royal blue democrat. He lost the democratic primary, so he shouldn't be the senator. I didn't hear the word independent once. Don't they file that paperwork under penalty of perjury and isn't perjury a crime in connecticut? I want this liar out of politics.
September 3, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT is among those states that does not have a recall process for voters to eject a sitting U.S. Senator.
September 3, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
However, if they commit a crime, perjury, then they should be booted, right?
September 3, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the case of CT, as in I think 17 or 18 others, the only pathway is through action by the Senate itself.
September 3, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
F*ck. The senate dems will never do a gd thing against this pompus a**, lying, traitorous, windbag. Ugh, I don't want to ever see this mofo in the media again. I can't stand his mug. Pathetic.
September 3, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iowa will deliver for Obama. They started the prairiefire.
September 3, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely brilliant name, by the way. I'd like to see Obama and Biden start leading chants of that at rallies. It's so perfectly cogent and respectably angry.
September 3, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't imagine Obama losing Iowa or New Mexico, and that means, holding all other Kerry states, we're already at 264. Colorado or Virginia would put us over the top, before you consider Missouri, Ohio, Florida, or any state like Georgia, North Carolina, or Indiana. That's why I am confident for November.
September 3, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virginia looks pretty good; Colorado is looking good, too. New Mexico will vote for Obama. The only problem he had here was Hillary and that was mostly in the north and it has some unfortunate overtones, but New Mexicans are mostly Democrats. And that's one reason Hillary and Bill Richardson and Obama campaigned here 3 weeks ago and then the New Mexico polls went up 13 points in his favor.
IF you believe polls.
September 3, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Missouri really isn't even close to top-tier this cycle. I have no idea why, but it's just gotten more red. NC is even somewhat more competitive, and it's pretty clear Obama isn't going to win NC. This election is probably the best bet in a long time to rough up MO's bellwether status.
September 3, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Economist did a profile on Missouri this past week.
They argue that Missouri is trending red because 1) the population is aging quicker than national average, and 2) Hispanics are underrepresented as compared to national average (3% vs. 15%)
As a resident of St. Louis, I would love to see Missouri go for Obama. I am not holding my breath, though McCaskill's win in 2006 gives me some hope.
September 3, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guarantee we will win Ohio.
Book it!
September 3, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys still using Diebolds? If so, I may just wait a while before I book it.
September 3, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least the Ohio Secretary of State is a Dem this time around. (Though I admit county election officials could still be up to shenanigans.)
September 3, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
We now have a Democratic Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner, who won't let that crap take place this year.
September 3, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've always said this -- Iowans can smell bullshit a MILE away. And they know it when they see the McCain/Palin ticket.
Go Hawks!
September 3, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too bad they didn't smell it on Grassley.
September 3, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Starlight,
The author is a good friend of mine. I've posted a link to his site on my site as well. MUST READING for anyone who thinks this is a good pick for America.
Rob
traitorjoe.wordpress.com
September 3, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear concerned citizens of America and mass media of the U.S.A.
As a concerned disabled American Veteran and American citizen, I consider it my duty and responsibility to address the following critical issues facing the voters of our Greatgrand nation, the United States of America [USA].
The citizens of the United States of America [USA] have the ultimate power and responsibility to elect the Right Ticket with the right joint "temperament, judgment, and statesmanship" to lead our nation as well as change our nation's present and future moral, political, economic, educational, health care, energy, military, and foundational soul.
In my firm professional, personal, and political opinion, the media should help the common voter to explore and discuss the following attributes of the present Republican and Democratic presidential slates:
1. Does the joint ticket have a calm, cool, and collected " temper and impulse" [Presidential Temperament]?
2. Does each ticket have sound and sustained "Judgment and Caliber"?
3. Does each ticket have a "presidential depth and degree" in regard to their purpose, policies, and positions?
4. Does each ticket have adequate, "understanding and knowledge" of workings around Washington"?
5. Does each ticket have enough "vigor, wisdom and Vision" for the future of our beloved Great-grand Nation?
6. Does each ticket possess enough joint foreign policy experience and ex-poser based on "American Values, Virtues, Vastness, and strong soul"?
7. Are their campaign talk, slogans, ads, plans, and programs based on facts and are they free of fear, fiction, frivolous labels, unfair attacks, negativity, and impulsivity?
If your answer to a majority of the above questions is yes, I suggest you vote for that ticket. As a Independent registered voter I have decided to vote for Obama-Biden ticket. I am sure they will protect our national security, Strong's, stamina and strong soul. Rebuild our nation from bottom up in all areas of need, OBAMA-BIDEN ticket will once again restore and rebuild our global standing with the use of maximum international humane diplomacy and minimal force if and when indicated.
Yours sincerely,
COL. A.M. Khajawall [Ret] MD., Forensic psychiatrist, Colonel, US-AR / MC Combat Stress Control[Ret], Disabled American Veteran and Iraq Freedom team.
September 3, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Colonel!!! Very well said.
September 3, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain loses Ohio, he's toast. If Obama loses there, fortunately has other paths to victory -- Colorado+NM, Virginia, NC.
I'm from Ohio, and, I'm sorry to say, not terribly confident about Obama's chances there. Yeah there's a lot of economic distress there. There's also a lot of racist pockets -- Appalachia, various ethnic neighborhoods in the industrial cities, Cincinnati. Unfortunately Ohio is a state losing population and therefore growing older: not exactly Obama country. If I were the Obama campaign, I'd have Joe Biden camp out there much of the next 2 months. It's that important.
September 3, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree that Ohio is important to Obama, Ohio is MUCH more important to McCain.
Obama has paths to 270 without Ohio (mostly involving picking up some Western toss-ups, plus flipping a key Midwest state or two). McCain, OTOH, MUST win Ohio AND Florida, or it's game over.
Again, McCain has to win Ohio AND Florida, or he cannot get to 270. Every GOP map has McCain carrying those states, plus places like North Carolina and Virginia. Turn 2-3 of those blue, and Michelle can start filling out enrollment papers for Malia and Sasha at St. Albans.
That said, Biden is in Florida, and I'm sure he'll hit PA and OH as well. Plus, if we can get help from Ted Strickland in southern Ohio, I think Obama can definitely carry the state.
September 3, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
First we have to carry the Kerry states which I think we will. All we need then is Iowa, NM and CO.
September 3, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
(filling in for idiotic)
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
!!!JohnSidneyMcManyMansionsMentum™!!! (III)
September 3, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, great polls, very exciting, but why are any news organizations wasting money on polls commissioned in the middle of this weird VP-convention-VP-Gustav-convention thing? Numbers just won't be reliable for another couple of weeks, once the lingering convention bounces shake out.
September 3, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden is spending A LOT of time campaigning in Florida.
I would put Hillary in Ohio since she is GREAT friends with the Ohio governor.
Ohio is going to be tight but it CAN be done. Stick Hillary there from now until November.
September 3, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd stick her in timbuktu. You really can't trust her or mr. bill. I lock them up until november 5, notwithstanding their convention speeches.
September 3, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden is spending A LOT of time campaigning in Florida.
I would put Hillary in Ohio since she is GREAT friends with the Ohio governor.
Ohio is going to be tight but it CAN be done. Stick Hillary there from now until November.
September 3, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Compare what Noonan said in the live mic tape from the front page to what she wrote today in the WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122044753790594947.html?mod=todays_columnists
September 3, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poor Nooners - what a crazy person she is -
September 3, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
She must've experienced some textbook cognitive dissonance when she wrote that. :-)
September 3, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
More shots being taken at Sarah Palin from the CONSERVATIVE side.
Conservative commentator and radio/TV host Laura Schlessinger just skewered Sarah Palin on her blog.
http://www.drlaurablog.com/2008/09/02/sarah-palin-and-motherhood/
I hope Greg picks this up...
September 3, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pick up Dr. Laura? I don't think anyone really thinks it's safe to get near her.
God knows what one might pick up if one picked up Dr. Laura.
September 3, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at all the nice squiggly red and blue lines to the right of us.
September 3, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep working
Keep giving
Remember from the primaries
September 3, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep working
Keep giving
Remember from the primaries
September 3, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep working
Keep giving
Remember from the primaries
September 3, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zacktly. But if anyone felt downhearted or worried that they were working for a losing campaign, I hope they're putting a spring in their step as they work for a winner. Let's make it a LANDSLIDE!
Who wants a mandate with Obama?
September 3, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I love the build up for palin's "speech." The media is making it a make or break speech and if she does anything like I have heard thus far, it will be a disaster. Let's all keep our finger's crossed.
September 3, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bar has been placed so low by the past few days that she really can't screw up the speech.
September 3, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You got that. And I foolishly didn't think it could get any lower than it got set with Commander CooCoo Bananas.
September 3, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Noonan video/audio recommends nearing (beating?) "Eagleton"s....
September 3, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those polls number are extremely encouraging. That said, keep calling, donating and canvassing. We still have work to do!
September 3, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again, expect the crazed usurper to give a good speech tonight as a professional telecaster and repeat beauty queen.
Don't let no one tell you that it's very reassuring or any of that shit; she is what she is. A disturbed, Talibangelical, highly ill-informed, bully and abuser.
September 3, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not a poll, but door knocking in south Minneapolis yesterday: 100 doors knocked, 40 households contacted, 2 votes for McCain; the rest strong Obama. One lifelong republican said he could never vote for Obama, but has decided not to vote in this election since he never trusted McCain and lost it with the Palin pick.
Don't know how to calculate the margin of error, and this is a very liberal neighborhood, but what is striking about the experience is the level of enthusiasm as well as the margin.
In February, our precinct caucus was attended by 787 people -- previous record attendance 260.
The turnout for this election is going to be amazing. But keep working all!
September 3, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting that the Repug told you he was sitting this one out - I think a bunch will.
September 3, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't believe these CNN numbers. Obama up by 15 in Iowa? I'm sure he is leading, but that just sounds way off.
In a way, that just reinforces my lack of belief in their national numbers, which put Obama up only one over McCain. That to me overestimates McCain's support nationwide.
I don't know what CNN's methodology is, but it's screwy.
September 3, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just talked to my 87 year old Iowa mother who is very much the swing voter. She went to bed during Thompson's speech because she didn't want to hear about McCain's war injuries and she had definitely caught the talking points today because she wanted me to know that Joe Lieberman lies. You know, lies is a very good word. We should use it more often.
September 3, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nis I disagee for one simple reason these are based on 04 models and in that sense it is safe to say they do underestimate turnout.
September 3, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The oxygen thieves put their convention in a state they thought they could compete in...oops...I bet Obama gets a nice boost in Colorado to the point the thieves will be in a mad scramble there. New Mex, CO and Iowa and it is all over with Kerry states. Given higher turnout, AA domination, Hispanic domination, oxygen thief lack of enthusiasm little wonder his campaign even with "tight" national polls are hardly breaking a sweat. McInsane in the membrane is in huge trouble
September 3, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will it really martter? I have little doubt Palin will make a good speech tonight. Gregory, Buchanan will lead the genuflect charge. On CNN all the ditto heads will submit. Fox who cares. Why wont it make a difference? Palin has more skeletons in her closet than Idi Amin had in his car trunk.
September 3, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I need to go on a personal mission to explain that 47% to 45% is actually a LEAD and is NOT A TIE. The article has it right with "edge" but the headline on the main page is wrong; Ohio is not a tie.
And, all in all, Obama is doing very well.
Just like his convention, I get the impression that this was all planned. Like an olympic mid-distance runner, he was planning how long to keep it close and then when to pull away. I get the sense it'll be a slight closing of the national polls next week and an increase of a point per week after that.
September 3, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other point to mention is that if you read the internals of the NC poll, Obama and McCain are ACTUALLY TIED 43/43, it's with leaners (1 Obama/3 McCain) that makes the difference.
We won't know how it all shapes up until AFTER the conventions, but it's interesting to see for what it's worth.
September 3, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tommorow at 8:30 PM ET, No. 24 South Carolina at Vanderbilt. Though I really wish the Ohio vs. Ohio State game was played Thursday night.
September 3, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!!!THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS FOR MCINSANE!!!!!!!
September 3, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The polls are encouraging, but they assume a fair vote in Ohio.
September 3, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes this is good news, But don't forget about the Repugs Oct surprise. They will probably catch Bin Ladin or go to war airh Iran or Russia!
September 3, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
NADER MAY GIVE OH TO McCAIN
I looked up the polls and there is a real big problem. Nader is pulling around 5%. (I will keep this clean but it is difficult.) In OH, the numbers for the full matchup are Obama 45%, McCain 44%, Nader 5%, Barr 2% and McKinney 1%. Nader gets around 4-5% in the other states but they are not close. Nader may be giving the right wing another election UNLESS we all get busy. There is a body of opinion that Nader voters are not getable and some maybe that way, but not all of them. When you run into one of these fine people (I am still on my good behavior), talk calmly to them about the consequences of a Nader vote. Do they want a Supreme Court under complete right wing domination for the next 30 years? Do they want the environment to be continually despoiled? Do they want a radical free trader in as President? Taylor the discussion and be calm and reasonable--hard though it may be. Remind them of FL and how the Nader voters in 2000 gave us war, job loss, etc. There is plenty of time to peal them off--or at least enough of them.
September 3, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink