I thought the SUSA poll might be an outlier because of the results it had for the gov and sen races as well -- every poll to date has shown the race to be much closer, with Hagan even ahead in some polls, whereas SUSA had Dole with a wide lead.

However, with dynamic voter registration numbers it's very difficult to evaluate polling results.

I think 49-36 is probably overstating the Dem number but I also don't believe that the party ID in NC is the same as it was in 2004. McCain probably has a 5-6pt lead here, with still 3-5% undecided. A slim chance here for Obama but I don't think it's going to happen. I'd keep up the push in the Research Triangle, though, if only because some of that will bleed over into Southern Virginia. At this point, though, I don't think Obama - by making a move in that state - is going to force McCain to spend a lot of time or money there. Looks like McCain may seem some potential trouble in Florida so he'll probably focuse his efforts more in that state.

Oh and look over to the right, Obama is back up in the Rasmussen tracking poll....

I don't know, has there been an increase in democratic registration in North Carolina consistent with national trends? It seems like that would be the question here...

I'm disappointed that Eric doesn't think McCain is "clinging" to his lead...

Greg, we know it's you. Posting as Eric isn't funny.

OT: I'm detecting a very serious shift in the media's coverage/relationship with the McCain campaign and its tactics. I don't watch cable news if I can help so I don't know if it's universal, but McCain seems in danger of losing his most coveted base....

There has been a massive voter registration drive in NC this year, but it's not enough to flip the state. There are a lot of unaffiliated voters, and a lot of older folks who are registered Democrat but vote Republican. In fact there were more registered Democrats than Republicans in 2004.

Before the conventions I thought NC was a longshot, now I think it's not going to happen. I'm still volunteering, my goal is to scare McCain into spending money here that he could be spending in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, etc.

As of Sept 6 2008:
Democrat 2,688,252
Republican 1,941,247
Unaffiliated 1,300,848

As of Jan 5 2008:
Democrat 2,511,446
Republican 1,919,575
Unaffiliated 1,173,399

As of Jan 1 2005:
Democrat 2,584,307
Republican 1,912,003
Unaffiliated 1,025,463

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_main.asp

Oilbama, who voted for Dick Cheney's Energy Bill, claims that sure he has had a 20 year relationship—personal, business, and political—with unrepentant terrorists William “Bill” Ayers, but he says "hey Ayers terrorist acts happened when he was only 8 years old". So if he decided to be friends with Charlie Manson now it would be OK too.

Oilbama with his comparison yesterday with Palin and a Pig and McCain with a Old Fish reached an all time low in politics. Oilbama can compare his fatassed flat chested sourpuss faced wife Michelle with a Pig if he wants to make a silly remark.

Eric the PPP numbers are consistent with Party ID numbers from a PEW poll this year in NC.

Wow. What an idiotic thing to post. I'm all for equal time, but Dem BillC (even a ridiculous post name for a troll) you need to get a grip. Quickly.

Living in NC is a bizarre thing for a Democrat. During the primary season, I felt a definite shift for Obama. Also, living in the blood red western part of the state, I see an awful lot of Obama stickers/signs. This doesn't translate to a win, of course, but I think it's every bit as close as the polls indicate. GOTV efforts are hugely necessary here to take advantage of our swelling numbers, at least on paper.

NC-Pres
Sep 9 SurveyUSA
McCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 38%

Yankeedevil is the idiot if he thinks Oilbama the Sexist Pig has a chance in NC.

I just have to give a big FUCK YOU to those few on here who promised not to give another dime to Obama unless he responded to Mccain's most recent attack. You're pussies with no sense of goddamn will. Obama struggles in the polls and media have fuckin inspired me to donate and volunteer, I'm going to put in extra work to help this man save our country.

So when we win this November I'll remember the assholes who said that and laugh because we did it no thanks to you. I feel we'll be better off without that no-will-to-win attitude anyway.

I just have to give a big FUCK YOU to those few on here who promised not to give another dime to Obama unless he responded to Mccain's most recent attack. You're pussies with no sense of goddamn will. Obama struggles in the polls and media have fuckin inspired me to donate and volunteer, I'm going to put in extra work to help this man save our country.

So when we win this November I'll remember the assholes who said that and laugh because we did it no thanks to you. I feel we'll be better off without that no-will-to-win attitude anyway.

I am increasingly convinced that American people should be blamed for rewarding dishonorable politicians.

I am inclined to suggest, after being reminded once again today how dishonorable McCain has been in running this campaign, that Team Obama should match McCain's no-holds-barred approach if it is what it takes to win. And if Obama wins the election, he should declare a day of national soul-searching with 3 minutes of silence and the national flag flying at half-mast.

I think Obama should give a speech on lies and deception in the GOP presidential campaigns since 1988, mentioning the most glaring lies, including Swiftboat, and particularly highlight the big lie Team George Bush manufactured about McCain's adopted kid and then play up the fact that McCain, the former victim, has transformed himself into a villain by hiring those who helped victimize him in 2000 and turning his campaign into a factory of lies. He should then most forcefully refute every potentially damaging lie and misleading statement that the McCain campaign manufactured. In the speech, he should also tie the GOP's practices of misleading and lying to the public with failed policies of the Bush administration.

As soon as I saw the SurveyUSA numbers, my response was, "Don't Panic, and wait for a PPP poll."

I know SUSA has a strong record overall, but they pretty much blow when it comes to polling the south. They got NC's primary so wrong - they were the farthest off-mark of any of the "good" pollsters. PPP is based in North Carolina, and has done a consistently good job of polling the state (as much as I wanted to dog their primary numbers in the Senate race, they proved to be dead on. All props to PPP).

I have felt all along that NC is winnable for the Obama campaign. I do think that there may be a percentage or two of underpolled "cell phone only"/young voters who could push up Obama numbers, because I've seen the enormous support he has at area universities & colleges. NC has a particular voting geography that plays to Obama's favor - about half its votes come from 14 counties, 3/4 of which are Obama strongholds (versus only 3 of those counties which went for Kerry in '04). And perhaps most importantly, the Obama organization knows how to work early voting in NC. As they learned in the primary, this can have enormous pay-offs: they won the election here before election day. With 50 field offices to McCain's 0, I believe the Obama campaign in NC can do so again.