No thanks. Im going to stick with Nate Silver's analysis at FiveThirtyEight.com. The fact that Todd lists Iowa and New Mexico as "lean Obama" when he has double digit leads in both states makes me question his methodology. Plus, we haven't seen any post-debate polling in any of these states yet.

I don't think MI,WI and PA are toss up. I am pretty confident that these states will go blue come November.

I think Indiana is really in play. Particularly since the heavily populated northern part of the state shares a media market with Chicago.

Obama has 40 field offices there, and they should be burning the midnight oil.

I think it will be close in Texas and nobody else does. I think Obama can carry Texas if turnout is anything like it was during the primary and I don't know why it wouldn't be.

But I may not say this again - nobody thinks Texas is even close, and I can't go against all the CW.

Several comments:

Anyone who thinks this race is "over now" must have been born yesterday. Democrats have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory TOO many times for anyone to think or talk that way.

On the one hand, of course, we know the polls are skewed because of the limited polling of cell-phone users and the bad weighting of 18-29's (Nate Silver's analysis at fivethirtyeight about this, with proper sourcing to Ann Selzer, is convincing on this point). Nonetheless, WANTING the youth vote to come out does not mean they will: they haven't SO MANY times before.

On the other hand, as the article in the Times this a.m. shows, the problem of how race is going to effect the vote is an open question, particularly in (gasp) the northern states. Michigan and Ohio are states seething with resentment, and everyone knows that the Republicans have mastered the stoking of these kinds of flames. I simply can't underestimate the POTENTIAL power of racism to alter the outcome.

BUT--and here again I"m swayed by the numbers analysis of Nate Silver--I do NOT see Ohio as crucial. In fact, I'm writing it off: I'm assuming that, among the threats of racism, corruption at polling booths, and all-around disorganization, Obama will be no better able to pull off a victory in Ohio than Kerry.

BUT....Ohio really doesn't matter, not given the importance of such states as Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. Like many here, I agree that the Upper Midwest (the trifecta of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin) WILL go to Obama, so the "crucial" states lie elsewhere.

The one state about which I am constantly afraid: Michigan. The campaign is dirty up there, and there is a lot of underlying resentment in general that is easily preyed upon up there.

DO NOT think that this is over. Remember how many voters (not young people who plan on voting but don't) want someone who is as stupid and uninterested in things as they are: how else can they CONTEMPLATE voting for a ticket that includes Palin?

Man, for a party that has only won the presidency with an extreme middle-of-the-roader like Clinton in the last THIRTY-TWO YEARS, we are certainly capable of some serious cockiness.

Did anyone notice that McCain called the Mujahadeen led by Bin Laden as 'freedom fighters' who drove out the Russians in Afghanistan.

Read About it Here
http://www.newsone.com/elections/article/mccain-called-bin-laden-a-freedom-fighters

Beautiful. So typical. Let's see: I've manned the calling banks for Obama this week in my own school (along with several of my young [high school] students. I wear the coolest shirt on the upper west side (BaRACK and SOUL), being sold by my local soul food place, proifts to Obama, and I'm maxed out in the general election already. I'll admit I have NOT gone down to Pennsylvania to knock on doors, but as a person who has elsewhere posted about my DISlike of Hillary (she IS my senator, and I have voted for her) and my great love of Obama, I'm simply focused on what one really needs to think about in this last month.

And you're, for want of a better term, are either a child or an idiot.

Many people are looking at the outcome of the debates to see if there may be some reason for polls shifting. Look elsewhere....Let's be clear, people may have taken time to see the debate, but they are taking a lot more time to watch the economy, the market, their own personal bank books! It is as though this Administration, and the Congress, watched a house catch on fire on a Monday, then waited, only to decide to pick up a fire extinguisher on Friday when the srtucture is toast! Insane and highly unprofessional to say the least.
Weatherman are more reliable then those on Capital Hill these days. Time for a real CHANGE!

Growing states = younger voters, Static states = older voters? How about a poll that accounts for the number of cell phone only voters vs landline only voters?

They were only freedom fighters because we were training and supplying them in one more of our proxy wars against the Ruskies, doncha know? Once the Soviet Union collapsed, who cares about some brown people across the world, anyway? (my paraphrasing of the Republicans attitude toward the Pushtun tribal factions in Afghanistan and Pakistan)

Always remember, one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.

Yes, I do believe Indiana is in play myself.

Before, people would have felt like they would have got laughed at and shot for having a Kerry sign out in their yard (yes, they are that fascist... i mean conservative here), but if you look now, Obama signs all around Goshen. They make up 40-50% of all the signs. One guy even painted his barn!

A business next to that barn (even though it had nothing to do with it, only guilt by association) got harassed by the geriatric supporters that are oh so very common around here. They lost about half of their business.

Obama beat Hillary in this county 59%-41% which is a 4,800 vote margin. Elkhart County is in the very top-center here: CNN Indiana Primary Results

Nate at fivethirtyeight.com said yesterday about new polls that came out then:

"Among these results, the only remotely interesting one is Kentucky, and then only because it suggests that Obama might be able to avoid a complete disaster in Southern Ohio."

Yes, doing good in Kentucky is a major factor here too since southern Indiana could easily be called Northern Kentucky. It will help Obama to not get steamrolled over in southern Indiana and lose Indiana.

One person here mentioned we have a lot of colleges. They are right. I work at one. Northern Indiana will go to Obama, I promise you that. By BIG numbers too! We just need Indianapolis to also or Obama might not be able to pull it off.

One last note (I hope someone finds something out of everything I've written interesting). There is a McCain and Obama office caddy corner from the coffee shop (latte sipping liberals anyhow...). I drove by at about 10 at night. McCain's was dark, Obama's was lighted with a woman running around doing something in there. If Indiana goes blue, that would be one of the biggest miracles I think I would have ever seen.

I have to agree that CO, MI, PA NH, and WI are more "lean Obama" (if not "likely Obama") for the fall. It's like Chuck Todd is ignoring the polling and just making stuff up as he goes along.

Likely Obama: 157 electoral votes

Lean Obama: 55 electoral votes

CO,MI,PA,NH,WI: 61 electoral votes

That's 273 (VICTORY)..... and Obama will win at least 1 of the actual "toss up" states.

In fact if the focus stays on economy (which it will), I predict Obama picks up VA, OH, and FL as well. If that prediction holds true... then Obama would have (drum roll, please)...

333 Electoral Votes.... an electoral vote mandate, in my eyes.

I am starting to feel this might be be a popular vote mandate, as well. Perhaps 51% for Obama, 45% for McCain and the other 4% split amongst 2nd tier candidates.

From:

Head of State

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/impulsively-unreflective-duo-incrisis.html

Monday, September 29, 2008

The Impulsively Unreflective Duo In..."Crisis on Wall Street!"

The Impulsively Unreflective Duo In:

Crisis on Wall Street!

John McCain is leaning back in a chair in his office in the Fortress of Irritability. An aide is carrying in a map of Spain when the Macphone rings.

McCain (answering): Fire Cox! Send him to Yugoslavia! Hello?

Hank Paulson (on other end of line): John, it's Hank. We are here in the Capitol. Every financial expert is assembled here, John. We have consulted every master, conferred with the widest and most informed authorities, asked every adept. We need you, John, you, with your mastery of financial expertise, to arrive at the door of our ineptitude and help us find an answer.

John, you must...suspend the campaign.

McCain: Suspend the campaign? But...the people need need my expert advice here, Hank. (Aide is unfolding the map on a table, circling Spain in red, and writing in large bold letters "Not Czechoslovakia"). They need me here. Where my acts can matter most. In...

Aide: The Fortress, Sir.

McCain: The Fortress, Hank. I can't just sit up and say "I suspend my campaign." That would look to anyone like the most clear act of political pandering, why, it's just...just...(the "I" on his chest lights up and begins to blink). I'll do it!

Hank: That's wonderful, John. We'll see you...

McCain: (Standing up, cape waving behind him) In a moment!

Aide: (to McCain): But who will man the fortress?

McCain walks to secret bookshelf. Removes book entitled "Courage". The bookshelf magically spins, revealing a grey vault. McCain turns the combination lock.

McCain: 21...72...23...skidoo...Drat! (starting again) 21...90...I'm sure that I disagreed with President Bush a lot of the time, Senator Obama! (pauses).

Aide: Let me help you with that, Sir. (quickly turns the lock left, right and left. The door of the vault slowly opens, with the sound of a vacuum seal.

This reveals a large auditorium, filled with advisers, cameras, and teleprompters. Over loudspeakers, a voice is filling the hall with sound: "The capital of Iraq is...Baghdad. Bagh...dad. The capital of Iran is..."

On the stage is Sarah Palin. She is holding a college text entitled "World Geography".

Palin: Ooooh. I know this one!

An adviser is standing to her right.

Adviser: Take your time, Sarah. Remember--think before you talk.

Palin: I know, I know. Can't I just say "A place that is deserving of our freedoms"?

Adviser: We've been over this before, Sarah. Remember--"Specific is terrific!"

Palin: Specific is terrific. Specific is terrific.

She shuffles her index cards and the loudspeakers intone..."The capital of Iran is...Tehran. Teh...ran."

Palin: Oooooh. They sound so much the same! Iran, Tehran. That's why I can't remember!

As McCain, hands on hips, cape waving, enters the auditorium.

McCain: Sarah.

Palin: Mr. McCain!

Both of their "I"s blink briefly.

McCain: Sarah, I want you to watch the Fortress until I return. I have a very important mission. About Wall Street.Both of their "I"s blink briefly.

Palin (to adviser): But I thought Mr. Reagan told Mr. Gorbachev to 'tear down that wall!'

Adviser slowly shakes head.

Palin (to McCain): But...can't I come on this mission, Mr. McCain? Please? I just know I could help!

McCain: Well, I think that a largely unprepared economic novice, struggling to comprehend concepts that are confounding the most experienced and educated authorities in the area...

Both McCain's and Palin's "I"s blink brightly.

McCain: ...Is just what this market needs! Let's go, Sarah! To the rescue!

Sarah: To the rescue, Mr. McCain!

NEXT EPISODE: The Evil Katie-Woman endangers Palin with a hypnotic confusion device...Questions! Can Sarah resist their terrible power?

Coming this week! On...

The Impulsively Unreflective Duo!

Cite:

Head of State

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/impulsively-unreflective-duo-incrisis.html

I agree with those Texans who hope to see Democrats pick up a majority in the Texas House of Representatives. Current (and temporary) Speaker Tom Craddick has crewed us over for far too long.

A look at the Democratic primary turnout gives one hope that those people -- and others -- will vote in the general election and election Rick Noriega to replace Bush toady John Cornyn in the U. S. Senate.

The Obama campaign has field workers all across the Lone Star State and they will make a BIG difference on election day.

Early voting in Texas is October 20-31.

It's probably due to them using the same numbers that Brokaw used on Meet the Press.