McCain Gets Convention Bounce In Latest Polls
John McCain is officially enjoying a nice convention bounce in the new tracking polls, with a tie in one poll and a lead in the other.
The latest numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 48%. Obama was ahead by five points in this poll before the Republican Convention.
And here are the new figures from Gallup: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±2% margin of error. Obama was ahead by around seven points in this tracker before the GOP Convention began.
These are both three-day tracking polls, with two days' worth of sampling from after McCain's acceptance speech. Tomorrow we'll be getting polls that are taken completely after the end of the convention.
Advertisement
I expect the blaring headlines on Drudge and its twin, The Page, about how MCCAIN IS NOW AHEAD!!!!
September 7, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
how about MCCAIN SUCKS
Palin’s Church: Video, Third Wave
September 7, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's OK to know this for god sake.
Look at the electoral numbers, calm down, and go help register someone to vote.
September 8, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
A bounce was expected, but it won't last. The numbers clearly reflects Republicans opinion and not that of Democrats and Independents.
September 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amusing. They didn't sample Democrats and Independents? Let's see what the electoral vote models look like next week. Right now, Obama has over 300. That's what counts.
September 7, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Daily tracking polls hardly provides concrete polling date.
September 7, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Besides, the election hinges on the battleground states, not national polling data.
September 7, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy:
Where did you hear they didn't sample democrats and indies?
Joe
September 7, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's in the comment I responded to, Joe. Obviously, I don't believe it. As a matter of fact, contrary to the myth around here, Gallup also samples cell phone users.
September 7, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Gallup also samples cell phone users."
It's irrelevant whether they "sample cell phone users" because most younger people do not answer the cell phone if they don't recognize the caller ID.
This weekend it was likely that younger people were out enjoying the end of the summer, while older people were home. Those same older people were are much more likely to be McBush supporters and also much more likely to have watched the convention, and much more likely to be "impressed" by the idiotic windbags (especially Palin) the Repubs paraded around.
That's what makes their numbers suck.
There are ways around these problems, but Gallop, USA Today, and Rasmussen don't use them.
The other thing to keep in mind is that all of these people are in business to make money and you make money by publishing polls that show something new - which is why you see movement in these polls.
The electorate does not make 10 point swings in a day, that's absurd to an extreme.
A week from now, Obama will be back to his 3-5 point lead. In the meantime, the electoral count remains heavily in his favor.
September 8, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, once some of the misrepresentations that McCain put out there during the convention are sorted out (hopefully they are), it could help Obama a little there.
September 8, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess I can tell me kids “be proud, we live the 34th best country on earth” We support candidates with designer glasses and nice hair over substance.
A blogger on ABC. How sad and true.
September 7, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Our GTOV is going to blow McSame out of the water.
September 7, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't rest on your laurels though.
September 7, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait until you see THEIR "suppress the vote" effort!
September 7, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. See the recent articles about vote caging in Ohio. Don't underestimate their efforts at vote suppression, and don't forget the zombie hordes bussed straight from megachurch parking lots to the polls in '04. We need to GOTV.
September 8, 2008 8:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe you guys should "vet" her some more. I can't believe the amount of time you spend on ineffectual attacks on Palin.
Now you're setting the bar so low for her first press conference that she is going to look like a great campaigner.
Less whining and more substantive commentary on the issues would be welcome.
At least McCain isn't over 50% yet.
September 7, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's some commentary: I agree. It's time to shut up about how unqualified this woman is and start attacking her for being a mildly corrupt liar. Treat her like she's a heart beat away from the presidency. Make every American know she lied about the Bridge to Nowhere and earmarks and pin her into a corner so she's forced to do interviews. Attack. Enough of this low bar setting bullshit. If you argue she's incompetent and she appears able to form complete sentences, you right lose the argument. Make her appear corrupt and untruthful and it's game on.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
September 7, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Honestly, the level of hypocrisy is beyond anything imaginable here. Karl Rove never pretended to be a saint. I'll give him that. But these two pretend sainthood while lying through their teeth!
September 7, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, you attack her strength as the "every woman hockey mom" candidate. That mean you ignore the tabloid stories and focus on her extreme right-wing views. She is a fundie trojan horse with a radical agenda. Hammer it home.
September 7, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely. For the life of me, I can't make myself understand why this woman is getting away with as much as she is.
September 8, 2008 3:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Simple nswer? Because the Press is NEVER free in a monopolist state...
September 8, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I too agree. All of our previous "vetting" has led to this!
September 7, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Billy, it was our vetting pushed McCain 2 points ahead in the Gallup Poll. It had nothing whatsoever to do with the convention. Sheesh.
September 7, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe it was. You were so hysterical and set the bar so low for her with your dismissive ranting that you guaranteed her a home run speech in front of a maximum audience. You're doing the same thing for her first national press conference or news show appearance. Keep ranting and whining. You're building her audience.
September 7, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, it's well known that Shrodinger's Cat controls the national media....
September 7, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what I'm saying. Your snark won't change the situation.
September 7, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I really don't understand your argument, Billy. You think commenters here at TPM have that much influence?
I don't.
If anyone has been beating the public drum about Sarah Palin's inaccessibility to the media, it's been Andrew Sullivan. And Jake Tapper. And Roger Simon.
Not commenters at ElectionCentral.
September 7, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't sell yourselves short. You are a microcosm of the Progressive voters. You are more representative than you think. Individually, of course, most of you can influence nothing. Taken as a mob that shares the opinions of Josh Marshall, you amount to an increasingly shrill voice that is heard inside and outside the blogosphere. You're a distraction for the Obama campaign. You're how he ended up with a dud like Biden who actually got less than 2% of the caucus vote in Iowa before he dropped out. You're why the bar was set so low for Palin. You're the people who keep telling yourselves and each other you're doing great and Obama is right where he needs to be.
Here's a flash. Josh Marshall and other yentas of the Progressive blogosphere thrive on defeat and discontentment. Their entire time in the blogosphere has been spent losing, first with Gore and then with Kerry. Getting beaten by the Republicans and then ditching the dirt about them is their comfort zone. Where's yours?
September 7, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a flash. Josh Marshall and other yentas of the Progressive blogosphere thrive on defeat and discontentment.
Now you're venturing into tinfoil hat territory. Yes, the collapse of Obama's Gallup poll numbers is directly attributable to Josh Marshall's thirst for web dominance.
You're a strange duck, Billy Glad.
September 7, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't everyone here wear a tinfoil hat? Sure seemed that way when Hillary was in the race.
September 7, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
psyclone, it just means they don't know how to function in a world where we're winning.
September 7, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy:
What role, if any, do you think the Josh Marshalls of the world, those who think and write like him, had in ensuring that Hillary Clinton would not be on the ticket? And do you have any thoughts on where we would be if Hillary Clinton were the VP nominee? Do you think the biggest blunder in the history of the Democratic Party since the nomination of Senator Eagleton might be the outright and utter rejection of Hillary Clinton by the smart progressive creative class? Do you think it was a good thing for Josh Marshall to enter Hillary's head and find racism? I think we should win this thing, regardless of the every-blundering creative class. Obsessed folks are mired in polls right around the conventions and that is stupid. But, so too, was the rejection of Hillary Clinton, stupid.
Meantime, does an angel get its wings everytime a panicky former hater of Hillary starts writing about the need to hear from Hillary?
September 8, 2008 8:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with all of that. I think the difference Clinton might have made is she would have made it harder for them to use Palin. I think TPM's and Olberman's attacks on the Clintons were some of the sleaziest attacks by the media I've ever witnessed. I don't read Kos and the Huffington Post much, but I imagine their attacks were just as bad. As I've said, I think the problem is that the only experience the liberal blogosphere has had in national campaigns is the experience of defeat. They know how to whine and tear down the Republicans, but they don't know how to make a positive contribution to the liberal agenda. Obama was right to dismiss them.
September 8, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Josh may possess a great deal of chutzpah, but he's no Yenta...
September 8, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh Marshall and other yentas of the Progressive blogosphere thrive on defeat and discontentment. Their entire time in the blogosphere has been spent losing, first with Gore and then with Kerry. Getting beaten by the Republicans and then ditching the dirt about them is their comfort zone.
God, I hate armchair psychoanalysis, especially when it's transparent provocation rather than any reasonable perspective on the situation. You're correct that the blogosphere (left and right) grew up in the Age of Bush, of course, so all most of us have experienced during that time has been electoral defeat, ruinous policies, and unbelievable corruption at the hands of these thugs. And -- I was sure you were wrong about the "Gore" thing, but you're right -- TPM debuted on 12 November 2000, before the SCOTUS coronated Bush a month later, so "first with Gore and then with Kerry" is at least correct in terms of time frame.
But you do your credibility no favors by invoking magical telepathic powers. You have no basis for concluding that Marshall et al. "want to lose" -- and you sound a whole lot like John McCain's "He'd rather lose a war than lose the election" comment when you do.
You must know that your credibility here is, um, not that high, from the "call and response" silliness of Feb of this year, to your, shall we say, early prediction of the demise of the Obama campaign after the first Wright flap (and I bought it at the time -- so we were both wrong), to far more recent antics. And undoubtedly before that; that's just the first I remember.
If you stuck to facts rather than telepathic speculation, you might find your credibility improving slowly. But in the meantime, given that you've recently responded to a Cafe post with "Knowledgeable and informative. Naturally, almost no one will read or recommend it. You must get tired of hanging around a place like this", you might ask yourself the same question you asked of c4Logic by implication. (And, of course, you were wrong about the number of readers and recommenders as well.) I guess it all depends on what you expect to get done here.
September 9, 2008 3:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
We're private citizens. We'll say what we want, thanks. It takes the hubris of Sarah Palain to believe anyone here is going to steer this election individually.
September 7, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. Billy has been told that we're not setting the agenda for Cindersarah, but Billy has a unique viewpoint. Billy is so convinced of the utter importance of what he says and he posts that he thinks that extends to all of us.
It's a kind of bloggermania. And of course, he's a troll at this point.
September 7, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
And of course, he's a troll at this point.
There she goes again.
Was this comment a troll?
Look, I've tangled with Billy Glad plenty. Most of his posts I don't like. I happen to think he has a point here, but that's really not the issue.
You, Tena, on the other hand, show a disturbing tendency to attempt to get people who disagree with you, or who are insufficiently Loyal to your particular party line, shut up or go away.
September 7, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
My ranting? Where did I rant? It's so preposterous of you to accuse any of us around here of dictating the media narrative that it proves just how shallow your argument really is.
Everyone with half a brain expected a bounce for McCain coming out of the convention. I would think that you - our self-appointed, self-righteous pundit know-it-all - would've realized that.
With our avatars gone, it's difficult to tell if you're still wearing that cheesy hat. Regardless, you'd better check it because it sounds like it's restricting blood flow to your brain.
September 7, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just love folks who believe their duty is to frame the debate for others. Just love 'em to death!
September 7, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, they've always been my faves.
September 7, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice straw men, Schrodinger, CT voter, et al are setting up.
Unless you're deliberately parsing Billy Glad's comment to frame it in the worst possible way, and stretching it into straw-man status, it's pretty clear that Billy Glad is referring to the commenters here (the "you guys"), not as the ENTIRE universe of those who (in Billy's opinion) are mounting "ineffectual" attacks, but as PART OF THAT UNIVERSE. It's pretty hard to argue with the idea that there's been an explosion of criticism of Palin in the progressive blogosphere (Kos, TPM, you name it). Some of that has been picked up in the broadcast and dead-tree media.
So no, Billy Glad isn't saying that ShrodingersCat, CTVOter, or the commenting community at TPM are dictating the media narrative. THAT, folks, is a pathetic, straw-man distortion of what Billy Glad is trying to say.
Agree or disagree with what Billy Glad is saying about the effectiveness of the tactics in going after Palin. But cut the bullshit. He's not saying what you're trying to make him say.
September 7, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for interpreting Billy for me.
I continue to disagree that the bloggers and posters at TPM are as influential as you or Billy seem to think.
But even if we (they) are, it sounds as if we're supposed to not make remarks or comments about Sarah Palin because the media might pick up on that and create a backlash. In other words, it sounds as if people should self-censor for fear of what might happen if they don't. I can't agree with that, either.
September 7, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
But even if we (they) are, it sounds as if we're supposed to not make remarks or comments about Sarah Palin because the media might pick up on that and create a backlash. In other words, it sounds as if people should self-censor for fear of what might happen if they don't. I can't agree with that, either.
Hmmm, you mean, kind of like what happens around here if anybody posts something critical of Obama? Like during the FISA debate, for example? I seem to remember a lot of folks telling the critics (of whom I was one) to STFU because, you know, we were helping McCain.
Sauce for the goose.
September 7, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a frequent visitor here, I can't say I saw any of what you're talking about in regards to FISA.
What I do recall is several posters claiming they wouldn't vote for Obama anymore because of his support for FISA. This was then criticized by others for losing sight of the big goal -- getting someone in office with progressive ideas, largely compatible with one's own, if not on the particular point of FISA.
The criticism was then not that these posters were giving the opponent arguments to use against Obama, but rather that their lack of continued support for Obama could quite simply lead to his defeat.
September 7, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a frequent visitor here, I can't say I saw any of what you're talking about in regards to FISA.
Try this one for starters.
And then the hilarity of this one (one of several invoking the Great Netroots Anti-Obama Conspiracy).
Funny, you posted in that thread too. Did you miss those comments, and others in the thread?
September 8, 2008 4:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I missed this one.
The one where we learn that Greg Sargent and, well, everyone at DKos, not to mention the entire "liberal blogosphere", consider Obama the enemy because they, you know, put up too many posts on a topic.
I am not making this up.
From the post in question:
Priceless.
Not to mention, of course, the complete lack of any reference to a "time line of deception" by Obama Enemy Greg Sargent. "Radha Hussein" pretty much made that one up out of whole cloth.
Then there's, oh, I don't know, the few dozen 'I'm really sick of the FISA crap on here' comments.
And the ever-entertaining Buckeye Terrorist Fist Jab Nation, here complaining that TPM is (horrors) posting on the subject, and -- even greater horrors -- linking to it on the front page.
Or liam, who claimed, that because he was posting on the issue, Greg Sargent had morphed into a PUMA.
I could go on, but I think the point has been made.
September 8, 2008 4:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Finally, ami_in_deutschland, I note that the posts I linked all came from a single thread to a single TPM-EC post by Greg. One in which, as I already pointed out, you posted. Somehow, you missed all of these comments, not to mention those appearing in other threads at the time.
Selective memory at its finest.
September 8, 2008 4:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, YOU cut the bullshit.
In his original post, he referred to "you guys". When he chose to reply to me, he specifically said "you" and proceeded to describe me as "hysterical" and referred to my ranting.
In addition, I think I did detail that I disagreed with his point by explaining that the move in the polls was quite clearly related to the convention.
It warms my heart , though, to know that Billy has finally found a friend.
September 7, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Yes, Billy, it was our vetting pushed McCain 2 points ahead in the Gallup Poll. It had nothing whatsoever to do with the convention. Sheesh."
That's what you said, SchrodingersCat, and what I replied to. "our" you said. Not my. So, unless you have a frog in your pocket, I assume you meant the collective "our" as in you Obamanauts at TPM. Don't try to pretend I was talking about what one person can do or can't do. If you are going to debate, debate.
If you believe you are ineffectual collectively, make that argument. Then we can discuss why.
September 7, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Billy, you seem to pride yourself on being such an awesome writer, I apologize for responding to the words that you actually wrote. In addition, I'm from Texas....you means one person, anything else is "you all" or "you guys".
And I'm sorry, Billy. You can act above it you'd like, but anyone who uses words like "hysterical", "ranting", and "whining" is not in the least bit interested in a real debate.
September 7, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately for you, I'm from Texas, too, and I know it's possible to get a good education there, i.e., one that lets you distinguish singular and plural yous by their context.
However. I have a hard time getting my head around the fact that you and betty nugs think your words don't matter. You use so many of them. You can't throw and dead cat in a TPM threat without hitting a betty nugs comment or one of yours.
But, even if you think your words don't matter, you should act as if they do. Not just for your own sake but for all of ours. Now do I mean you or you all? You tell me.
September 8, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Calling for censorship. Nice. Now I understand you a bit better. You're allowed to run around here bestowing up on us whatever "wisdom" you choose to share, but everyone else needs to mind their p's and q's.
You state that obama is behind in the polls because of "us" or "me" of whoever and no one is allowed to question your logic. Do you have any proof to back up your assertion? Instead of providing any, you choose to accuse "us" or "me" or whoever of being hysterical and whining.
Funny, I don't remember people around here telling you to STFU because you were ruining Hillary's chances in the primary. If we're to be blamed for Obama slipping in the polls now, are you willing to take the blame for Hillary losing the nomination?
Who the fuck is "betty nugs"?
September 8, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
It warms my heart , though, to know that Billy has finally found a friend.
Another straw man, and an ad-hominem at that. Nicely done. I've tangled with Billy Glad plenty before. Usually disagree with him and often think he's full of shit -- all the way back to Feb-Mar when the subject was Obama's "call and response" rhetorical style that Billy had claimed he'd "grown out of" or some such bullshit. That post is still up at TPM.
In his original post, he referred to "you guys". When he chose to reply to me, he specifically said "you" and proceeded to describe me as "hysterical" and referred to my ranting.
You seem to have a hard time distinguishing between the singular "you" and the plural "you." When you finish grade-school English, come back and we can talk.
In addition, I think I did detail that I disagreed with his point by explaining that the move in the polls was quite clearly related to the convention.
That's fair game, and it's what, in a sane universe, we would be debating. It's the other stuff I'm talking about, and you know it.
September 7, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I think you're confused. That's just plain, good, old sarcasm.
I'm sorry, what were you saying about ad-hominem attacks?
September 7, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Distinguishing the singular and the plural "you", from context, is pretty much a grade-school skill. I'm sorry you're still working on that one. If you consider it an ad hominem, well, I can't help you much, but you've proven yourself adept at using them yourself copiously (and then, of course, denying it when you get busted.)
It's really not that hard. Just argue with what Billy said, rather than with what you tried to make believe he said. I'm sorry that's also a hard concept for you to grasp.
September 8, 2008 1:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Busted? Oooh....I'm scared. Are the grammar police going to come after me? Just because I chose to get my point across in a way that didn't meet your standards, doesn't mean the I now have to bow in deference to you.
It's pretty apparent from most of your postings on this thread that you're just here to start shit. So go right ahead. You can continue to throw shit, and I shall choose to reply as I see fit or ignore you all together.
September 8, 2008 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ooooh, schrodinger, you're so cute when you get personal and flustered.
Busted? Oooh....I'm scared. Are the grammar police going to come after me?
No, just the credibility police. I'm afraid your rap sheet is getting longer on that score.
Just because I chose to get my point across in a way that didn't meet your standards, doesn't mean the I now have to bow in deference to you.
Of course, I never said you did. Straw man much? Them Credibility Cops are walking down the driveway! Quick, flush the non sequiturs before they knock down the door!
Like I said before, it's pretty simple. If you want to argue with what Billy Glad actually said and meant, no problem. If you dream up tortured interpretations so that you get to make believe what he said, then you can expect a little push-back. No biggie. You get to pick.
It's pretty apparent from most of your postings on this thread that you're just here to start shit.
Only in your fevered imagination.
Calling bullshit on you when you stretch meaning beyond all recognition to make a non-point isn't "starting shit." Neither is discussing the economic mess President Obama will inherit, and the challenges in digging out of it, as I began to do downthread a piece. Calling out repeated attempts at censoring others isn't "starting shit." Suggesting that maybe Joe Biden has it right, rather than a subgroup of the TPM commentariat, isn't "starting shit."
On the other hand, putting another commenter's words through some kind of alternate-reality spin machine, laughably claiming that he's "accusing" TPM commenters of "dictating the media narrative" or that he thinks that TPM commentators single-handedly just so you can supposedly "prove just how shallow your argument really is", or using terms of endearment such as "our self-appointed, self-righteous pundit know-it-all," or talking about "cheesy hats" in avatars (real classy, that was, Mr. Cat) IS "starting shit." Hmmm.... project much?
So go right ahead. You can continue to throw shit, and I shall choose to reply as I see fit or ignore you all together.
This is what's known as a rhetorical "get out of jail free" card. You see, if I don't reply to you, it's because I'm ignoring you! -- rather than, oh, because I realize, oh shit, I'm fresh out of arguments! Well, you can reply or not as you like, and readers can interpret your response, or silence, as appropriate.
September 9, 2008 3:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
It warms my heart , though, to know that Billy has finally found a friend.
Another straw man, and an ad-hominem at that. Nicely done. I've tangled with Billy Glad plenty before. Usually disagree with him and often think he's full of shit -- all the way back to Feb-Mar when the subject was Obama's "call and response" rhetorical style that Billy had claimed he'd "grown out of" or some such bullshit. That post is still up at TPM.
In his original post, he referred to "you guys". When he chose to reply to me, he specifically said "you" and proceeded to describe me as "hysterical" and referred to my ranting.
You seem to have a hard time distinguishing between the singular "you" and the plural "you." When you finish grade-school English, come back and we can talk.
In addition, I think I did detail that I disagreed with his point by explaining that the move in the polls was quite clearly related to the convention.
That's fair game, and it's what, in a sane universe, we would be debating. It's the other stuff I'm talking about, and you know it.
September 7, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Count me among those who could never quite believe Billy was serious, but that he was usually trying to hit people's buttons.
But I've had the same argument with my son as we're having here, and I also believe that we focus on the cheesy trailer-trash component of the Palin story at our peril.
Billy's making a point about tactics, and I agree with him. Being petty and obsessed with the personal, and not the policy disaster that is a very real danger with McCain and Palin, is a losing proposition. These people are backed by a whole lot of very experienced, very cynical and very desperate operatives and financial backers who are quite capable of saying anything, and of doing virtually anything they think they won't get arrested or indicted for, to win.
Dicking around with trivia because if feels good to feel righteous and indignant is a good way to take one's eye off the ball and lose.
It's all about her policy positions on energy, on the role of religious beliefs in government policy, and on her qualifications and expertise, particularly in foreign policy that we should be focusing on.
A little more of any real evidence that she abused her powers as governor, and what her relationship with lobbyiests, and the truth, really is, couldn't hurt, either.
If we arent' careful, we'll fall into the republican trap of making it all about image, and they're trying to make her a very sympathetic character to all the millions of conservative Christian moms out there. Millions.
It's very possible that the American people are, in fact, so stupid and used to the lies and bread and circuses that we can lose this thing.
September 7, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Careful with that agreeing with Billy Glad stuff. People round here call you really bad names like "Billy Glad's friend" and stuff when you do that.
September 8, 2008 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now you're setting the bar so low for her first press conference that she is going to look like a great campaigner
Interesting point. And it's exactly what the opposite of what Biden is doing. He calls her "formidable." Biden's tactic is the better one.
But that only applies to Palin as a campaigner, not as someone who has to, you know, govern.
September 7, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
And by the way, you idiots:
FiveThirtyEight is saying the same thing.
Let's see if the blockquoting works for a change...
Just in case it doesn't work (not that that ever happens) -- that was the end of the blockquote.
In fairness, Quinn is discussing something a bit different -- what he sees as ineffectual whining from Democrats when Palin lies and mounts unsubstantiated attacks. Crying "foul" and hitting back, per Quinn, is ineffectual, and in hockey, it's the player who hits second that goes to the penalty box -- and this is what he's saying about the Dems right now. So he's talking about a somewhat different phenomenon, but his other observations are applicable to what Billy Glad is talking about here. We're taking the bait from the Rethugs and getting thrown off our game. The buckshot-style attack mechanism isn't working.
September 7, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're seeing a completely routine convention bounce for the McCain/Palin ticket. The idea that bloggers sniping at Palin are somehow responsible for one of the most routine occurrences in presidential elections is totally daft.
Note that I'm not saying that this is nothing to worry about. If nothing comes along to change the narrative, McCain could get a lot of mileage from the bounce.
Nor am I saying that the Obama campaign is responding the right way. Their current lines of response strike me as pretty good, but what the fuck do I know?
I'm just saying that blaming Josh Marshall or the TPM commenters for this is dumb.
September 7, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooops. Now he's at 54% in the USA Today/Gallup poll. I forgot the Gallup tracking was a 3-day average.
September 8, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Josh Marshall sounds desperate and it is only the 3rd day of the campaign. Listen to Billy Glad.
September 7, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yesterday, i was listening to radio KISS FM-New York and to my surprise a former Gallup Pollster was a guest on the show. The pollster spilled the beans on all the lies and deceptions the pollsters including Gallup plays on voter. The Pollster even accused Gallup of fudging Hillary Clinton's national numbers during the first phase of the primary battle of 2007, to give the appearance that she was all but the certain democratic nominee.
September 7, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
What show was it and who the guest was?
September 7, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
98.7 KissFM---New York.
The guest a was former pollster for Gallup.
September 7, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm trying to see if the show is online...
Can you tell at what time the show was?
September 7, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
11:15 Am, Sept 6, 2008.
September 7, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have heard him twice on NPR shows in the last week. I think one was Diane Rehm and the other was On the Media.
September 7, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
O gee, what a surprise!
National polls are shit and I knew it. Thanks for backing up what I knew - really.
September 7, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Goodness. Only 4 to 7% undecided with two months to go. NOT!
September 7, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hah!
Your blog on Friday was prescient.
September 7, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena
I think the same guy was on the NPR show ON THE MEDIA this am Sunday 7 am on my station. You can go to the NPR website and get the transcript sometime tomorrow. I had to go to work so I just caught the first bit.
September 7, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena
I think the same guy was on the NPR show ON THE MEDIA this am Sunday 7 am on my station. You can go to the NPR website and get the transcript sometime tomorrow. I had to go to work so I just caught the first bit.
September 7, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nulook:
Any more info on the show? I used to write for Newsweek about 10 years ago and before that, at a Hearst paper. While it was hard to judge bias on a day-to-day basis, I know the editors liked a good race. They often made it sound closer than it was because they were:
1) afraid of offending one side or the other
2) a close race generated interest
Having said that, Hearst at the top management level was extremely conservative and Republican.
Joe
September 7, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
We won't really know what this means for about another week. My guess is that the POW story was new for some people, and is producing a strong sentimental response. I also suspect that the bounce will fade pretty rapidly.
But we'll see. I'm going to wait to let things settle out -- look at the state polls -- and then decide how much time and money I have to invest over the next six weeks. Since I live in Illinois, I would rather donate than volunteer. But if it's really going to be close, I can take a long weekend and travel to Michigan or Ohio or Indiana.
I believe there are a lot of people who feel the same way I do about this. It's not a question of *whether* we win -- it's just a question of how much time and money we have to invest to do it.
September 7, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
When the GOP convention goes second, the GOP nominee often does not go down from his bounce and does better in November than in the convention bounce. The continued improvement from the bounce of a GOP convention that went second occurred for Ford in 1976, Reagan in 1984, and Papa Bush in 1988.
Barring a shocking event, history indicates that McCain/Palin will be elected. And that's not taking into account the Bradley effect that will shave several points off Barack's actual numbers from his polling numbers.
September 7, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
there is something to the going second thing
but this is a change election and change will come in the form of Obama and Biden.
They can't hide their unqualified vp nomiee and expect people to be OK with that.
If, heaven forbid, McCain does win and then, hf, can't continue being president how long will Palin take before she is ready to assume the duties?
September 7, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Bradley effect might be in play for McCain-Palin, as well, but I wouldn't expect you to admit that.
People may not want to vote for a woman, but would be unwilling to admit that to pollsters.
September 7, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The best empirical studies indicate that the Bradley effect was real in the 80s and 90s, but hasn't been measurable in this decade.
September 7, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
So pundit and commentators are still talking about something for which there's no legitimate evidence.
I think what this country needs is an anti-science candidate as vice president. Yes, indeed.
September 7, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Bradley effect is BS-- in fact when it came to Harold Ford in Tennessee, he was the opposite, being way down in the polls but coming pretty close to Election Day.
If anything, we have a "reverse Bradley Effect" these days. That's partly b/c the polls totally underestimate the impact of new voter registrations (overwhelmingly Democratic). Also, while Gallup and other pollsters have made attempts to sample cell-phone users, it's still very, very low overall-- there's no legal way to obtain the cell-phone numbers, telemarketers have the same problem.
People, please, stop freaking out about these polls. A Convention Bounce is normal because the sampling occurs when one candidate has just about all the media attention. Remember, the Republicans went second in 1992 and they still lost. Likewise, Bill Clinton was trailing often in 1992 and 1996 but still came out ahead.
That advantage for the Republicans has gone, and if anything, the GOP is now under pressure and in fear of "losing their lead." Obama is all over the late shows, broadcast shows and unleashing his war chest.
Most important is the economy. There are economic models that are extremely good, and they show Obama winning in a blow-out landslide victory in November 2008. The polls right now are teasing and tantalizing McCain/Palin, as they did Bush/Quayle in 1992, but they have a way of turning around quickly.
The nasty economic news is now just starting to hit the fan. We're entering a genuine recession, unemployment is shooting up and foreclosures are increasing rapidly. Therefore, the economy will be the overarching topic in the coming weeks, and on that, the Obama campaign has a tremendous advantage.
Chill out, and let's keep our eye on the ball. Now it's the Republicans who are under pressure, and with the economy as the chief issue, the Republicans are in serious trouble.
September 8, 2008 5:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure the analogies work. They may have had the "continued improvement" as you call it-and maybe not. What history are you referring to? Ford lost and papa Bush had Reagan's coattails...
September 7, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ford in 1976?
Seriously?
Ford lost.
September 7, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ford was down 25 points after Carter's convention but ended up only losing by 3 points or so.
September 7, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not waste our time on numerology.
September 7, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bob Barr is still out there, not to forget.
September 7, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm, no. History indicates the party in power for the last two Presidential terms, in a bad economy no less, will LOSE. That why we call this a "change election". Why the hell do you think McCain co-opted Obama's message last week. Seriously, who are you kidding?
September 7, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Newdude:
Hope you are right. The media seems to be in the tank for McCain and utterly in love with Palin. This affects the 4 or 5% undecideds out there who have no idea what the issues are. Remember what Joe Biden said, the worst products have the best marketing.
Joe
September 7, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love the Biden line!
I'm wondering how Republican and indie men will take to Sarah. Not the wingnuts but the more serious, moderate types who don't think that her being a hockey-mom is necessarily a plus.
September 7, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
History also indicates that an African American won't win the presidential nomination of a major political party.
September 7, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
A bounce is what it is: a bounce...
To move quickly up and then down, or vice versa, once or repeatedly. (From Wikitionary)
The RNC is now over, the job numbers and the Fannie-Freddie takeover are the news now. The Palin affair is staring to fade and her scandals are just coming out (and the fact that she won't talk to the press doesn't help her of McCain). Obama still have the money and ground game advantage. The breaking point will be the debates. It's just a matter of time.
September 7, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today, we are hitting back.
Joe Biden is accusing the McCain campaign of sequestering Sarah Palin, his counterpart on the Republican ticket, and challenged her Sunday to sit for network interviews.
September 7, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great! Since when do we hype the opposition and demand that the Sunday shows put them on? What's wrong with this picture? Biden is way out of his league.
September 7, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy, I agree, not a great thing, but all the people watching are at least asking, yes, why isn't she on, and they are the older crowd, so I am glad he brought it up.
September 7, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. Why is everyone so afraid of Sarah Palin? It is she who should be afraid of US. Biden was in bounds to bring it up.
tick tock tick tock
September 7, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need to keep up the narrative WHAT IS SHE HIDING and why won't she talk?
September 7, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I apply the same dynamic when I see your name. It's better to ignore you than respond and I urge others to do the same.
September 7, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Way to lead by example, biglith. You're ready to join the Josh Marshall yentas. You couldn't keep your mouth shut if the election depended on it.
September 7, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I noticed that the networks all had GOP common taters on during the Democratic convention, interrupting and nay-saying.
During the Republican convention, it was wall to wall cheerleading. Listen to grampaw's speech, wasn't it AWESOME!
So this is a MSM-training wheels bounce, but that MSM isn't going to go away.
~
September 7, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're the first other person to say aloud what I saw too!
September 7, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://mediamatters.org/items/200809050001?f=h_top
September 7, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://mediamatters.org/items/200809030022?f=h_top
September 7, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they win America will be the laughing stock of the world.
September 7, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
How true. And thanks to the spectacular incompetence, duplicity and inexplicable arrogance of the current crowd, we basically already are.
September 7, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Palin euphoria is already wearing off as independents learn that the v.p is not up to the task.
In "deference" to Sarah I must admit she's going quickly from being an asset to sort of a sideshow.
Its possible that Palin isn't as serious about this as some would like to think. She might just be using this as a stepping stone something for the resume, and the book she's likely already working on, or the oil lobbyist job she was promised to join the ticket.
September 7, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is exactly what Obama needs. Maybe now they'll start playing real offense.
September 7, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy Glad, Can you guide me to a couple of good electoral vote model maps? Thanks.
September 7, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the most reliable is www.pollster.com
You can also google "five thirty eight." Nate Silver's analysis is good.
September 7, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a couple:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Up over 300.
Here's another:
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.shtml
538 did an excellent job of predicting primary outcomes.
September 7, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
But all of these maps are based mainly on pre-convention data. It's going to take another week before we really know where things stand. Sorry, but it's the truth.
One form of action deserves to be foregrounded. In most states, voters can still register up to Oct 5th. The Obama-Biden campaign could use help registering voters in key states.
September 7, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
And on that note, AP/Yahoo noted yesterday that the Dems have gained about 2 million registered voters in the last year or so, and the Reps have lost about half a million.
Not a bad start.
September 7, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just use electoral-vote.com. He explains his model and provides some analysis and news. He has Obama at 301 right now, but the numbers change as the state polls underlying the model change.
What I don't understand is why Josh Marshall never puts any news about the electoral vote models on the front page. Where was the "Obama extends his lead in electoral votes!" headline when Obama took the lead in Ohio and went up over 300?
September 7, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would add Sam Wang's site to the mix.
http://election.princeton.edu/
September 7, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy Glad, Can you guide me to a couple of good electoral vote model maps?
www.electoral-vote.com
www.pollster.com
www.fivethirtyeight.com
September 7, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to all you guys. Much appreciated. Now I have something else to click on obsessively every day or two.
September 8, 2008 3:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really, this is what matters, point should be hit over and over, thank you Phil Gramm, John's McCain's financial buddy/advisor and terrifyingly still in the picture calling the shots.
"The Bush administration, acting to avert the potential for major financial turmoil, announced Sunday that the federal government was taking control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the actions were being taken because "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe."
September 7, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard for me to say this, but if the financial side reaches a point where it can't be shored up, McCain may just throw the election to Obama and let the whole thing fall on him. Democrats will get all the blame for the what the repugs and Bu$h created.
September 7, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, it didn't work that way for FDR. He inherited a similar mess but didn't get blamed for the mess that Hoover and the robber barons left us in. Media culture has changed since then, and we've become dumbed down as a populace, so it might work differently this time around.
I really don't know whether we can use FDR/New Deal approaches to dealing with the last 30 years of Republican economic policies (including under Clinton).
It's hard to use Keynesian demand-side economics financed by deficit spending when you're already $10 trillion in debt. OTOH, our debt as % of GDP is way lower now (64-68%) than it was under Roosevelt-Truman in 1945-49 (117.5% in 1945 down to 93% in 1949). Of course if we hit a severe economic tailspin (not unlikely) and therefore see a significant GDP contraction, we could see our numbers change even before adding to the debt.
OTOOH -- Our national debt is way higher now, as % of GDP, than it was at the start of the Republican Great Depression of 1929. National debt was about 18% of GDP in 1929. Also in 1929, federal expenditures were only about 3% of GDP. To my untrained eye, that means that in 1929 there was a lot more room available for Keynesian-style policies to work than in 2008. But an economist I'm not.
September 7, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who else has it occurred to that choosing Sarah Palin could be suicidal for McCain ? Does anyone else know religious wingnuts who say that they want McCain to win then die ? It is not a reach at all to imagine some "right-to-life" GODBOT or another steeped in the movement who hears GOD talking to them. The message would be something along the lines of "send McCain home to me" and the meaning would be to place his chosen one ,Sarah Palin, in the White House. Better get a food taster if you win John.
September 7, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
It has occured to many, but her record HAS to get out there before voters other than the demographic you are referring to can see her for what she truly is. Obama was never going to get them anyway...
September 7, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
What makes you think McCain has to die for Palin to become President? McCain is known to have a violent temper that he can't control. Anger increases blood pressure. He just turned 72. Do I have to explain it any further what happens to an elderly person with high blood pressure and they get angry about something?
September 7, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
God told her he wants her to drill for oil in Alaska, and Gold told her he wants us to be in Iraq, so why wouldn't God tell her he wants McCain to die?
September 7, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I feel really sad for Erik, he really has nothing to do.
I guess the republican propaganda is now on TPM.
September 7, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is attempting what the GOP has been doing for years. They are using Palin as their "bright, shiny object" to take the focus off of the feeble old man at the top of the ticket.
Don't take the bait, Dems. Palin is not the issue here. Palin is nothing but a shrill speech (and as woman, I am not being sexist).
I'm reminded of the movie "Disclosure". We need to keep our eyes on what's really going on here, focus on the real problems with McCain, and not get caught up in the drama, the lies, the empty resume that is Palin.
McCain is dangerous. He lies with such ease it's scary. He put his last hope for "his turn" at the White House ahead of our nation's best interests with his pick of Palin to be next in line if/when he dies.
We need to stay focused on spreading the word, converting the undecideds, registering non-voters, and GOTV on 11/4/08.
PEACE
September 7, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with everything you say, but I really have to take exception to the notion that a woman cannot be sexist.
That's, to put it politely, absurd. Women can be just as sexist about other women as men can be.
And, for the record, I'm a woman. For some reason, whenever there's a discussion about sexism, I feel compelled to point that out, as if my gender provides me with some sort of credibility. Sexist thinking in and of itself, I dare say.
September 7, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why we getting all jittery? Its a national tracking poll which doesn't include concrete date. We don't have national elections in this country, so the GALLUP, RASMUSSEN, CBS, ETC polls are not relevant. The state polls matter.
September 7, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't remember who it was, but a week or two ago a high level Obama spokesperson (maybe Singer or Gibbs) talked about how the campaign is absolutely NOT concerned with daily tracking polls, even less than they are concerned with national polls. I'm paraphrasing, but he said that the campaign is only concerned with polls in about 17 states and the campaign is very satisfied with how they are doing in those polls.
I also think fivethirtyeight.com is a great website for polling and a state by state analysis. I would encourage everyone to check it out.
September 7, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're called bounces for a reason
September 7, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The daily tracking polls are meaningless. People need to sit back, chill and focus on getting the vote out on Nov 4.
September 7, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh spoke too soon
Sarah's talking to Charlie Gibson this week
September 7, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh wow, that ought to be riveting. Good old hard hitting Charlie, I am sure he will have his talking points in hand.
September 7, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah right!!! What day?
September 7, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh needs to take a chill pill
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080907/ap_on_el_pr/palin;_ylt=Anu59u_CbxLN4HVbh9q6KYmM5QcF
September 7, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome! Are we going to hear more about her breastpump or how she likes skinny white chocolate mochas? Maybe Gibson will return to form and ask Sarah Palin if she thinks Obama loves his country as much as she does?
September 7, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Charlie Gibson: "Governor Palin, do you think Jeremiah Wright loves this country"?
Figures the McCain campaign would pick Gibson. I bet these are going to be some serious softball questions, promised in return for the interview.
September 7, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember Charlie! He's the guy who shamelessly threw that debate along with Hillary's booster Stephanopolous, giving rise to the TPM video known as "Wall to Wall Ugly." I think ABC tried to do debates after that, but were laughed out of the solar system.
So now it's a puff piece on the Soccer Mom, as I see..
September 7, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
And how does that square with what the McCain campaign has been saying as late as today?
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/davis-vs-mccain.html
September 7, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in Indiana, the undecideds that I have encountered are waiting for solutions about health care, education, and jobs going overseas. If the interview just becomes fodder to keep the base fired up, then Obama wins.
September 7, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just do not understand democrats. Have we lost so much that we go through the chicken little strut everytime McCain gets a tick?
WE KNEW MCCAIN WOULD GET A CONVENTION BOUNCE. It is inevitable for every candidate. You do not see republicans losing their heads over McCain being behind? (and he is behind)
There is no way, no how, majority of americans who vote (mind you only 44% of the entire population) are going to vote their money over their ideals. Mostly everybody is hurting, feeling the pinch, gone under or going under. It slaps us in the face where ever we go. Gas station, Grocery store, clothing store, school supplies, kid's activities, mortgage, heating, even entertainment....
In the end, we vote our pocket book. Too many people are scared their financial future. We are now trying to figure out what we are going to do about Christmas (yes Christmas, because most of have to think about this at this time of the year).
I do not care what the republican party does, THEY CAN NOT ESCAPE THIS UNESCAPABLE FACT. I do not care how many debates, conventions or negative ads their are.
We have had enough of the republican party. THIS IS INESCAPABLE.
When people go into that voting booth, they will not go with the devil the know...they will go with the one that don't.
So it ain't palin, it ain't mccain, it ain't even country first for most americans.
It is we are going through hell right now, and as my mother says, when you are going through hell, you don't stand there, you run you keep going to get away from the heat.
September 7, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Democrats tend to lose sight of the big picture when they see these types of poll numbers. The Obama camp has made it clear they are not all concerned about the national polls. We need to take the Obama campaign's advise.
September 7, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Labor Day proved this point, market plummeted with slow sales. Christmas is going to be devastating, and already people are worrying about their ability to just pay the bills; buying gifts is an additional burden that it overwhelming. I am already concerned about it, so I imagine others are too.
September 7, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Without strong Christmas sales where people are buying any and everything, you'll see tons of businesses shutting down. Christmas is their make or break season.
September 7, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
exactly. the media and the politicians are so out of touch right now it is not funny. people are going to vote their pockets. and right now the republicans got nada.
people vote against their interests when they have a little money in their pockets.
name one candidate of an incumbant party with the economy on the skids like it is right now that won.
obama's race, his pro-choice stance nor his foreign policy credentials, will not be an obstacle to anyone's pocket. they will say forgive me lord but i need help right now...and vote democrat.
because ultimately, it ain't about obama/biden or mccain/palin... IT IS THE ECONOMY STUPID. and no WE AIN'T STUPID.
this is about who feels more threatened...people uncomfortable about race, national security vs. people more concerned about groceries, a job, gas and fuel, mortgage and rent.
a roof over our heads and food on the table trumps COUNTRY FIRST everytime....
winter and christmas is coming and we need help...
September 7, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some of the most depressing campaign coverage I have seen to date was Jon Stewart's Daily Show in St. Paul. In the spirit of what comedy should be all about, they completely undermined and eviscerated the gooey pretense for the whole damn circus. The conventioneers played their part - like doe-eyed, farm accident survivors wielding their own special hooch of ignorant arrogance except when they were chewing on their cud of arrogant ignorance.
Who could blame Stewart at the end of the show when he said thank you for the hospitality but "I can't wait to get back home" to his "cosmopolitan and elitist New York."
If the trend continues, any place but here looks like home to me.
September 7, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
My son wants out. He is a doctor, just 29, and is disgusted and embarrassed. Totally fed up. I told him if he can, go. Get the hell out of this dumb downed nation while he can.
September 7, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am from the Midwest and I have met as many smart, kind and generous people as anywhere else I have lived. I have also worked worked with more than a few republicans and devout Christians who try their very best to do the right thing by others no matter what the party affiliation or belief system.
But for some reason, when it comes to those who make the policies that guide our collective future, they ask for more accountability from their football coaches, than they do their representatives.
So long as they say the right thing, they literally let them get away with murder.
I don't get the disconnect. It is as if they feel it is somehow a treasonous act to second guess a fellow "believer" and "patriot."
The greatest cynical act of all however is reserved for the Roves who prey upon our fears and our willingness to suspend disbelief, because the truth is just too damn much to take.
September 7, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be honest, the democrats could fan out across the country in every battle ground state with every senator or congress person not running for office and hold town halls and local media avails everywhere, with the only single national ad saying - if you are struggling to pay this (you fill in the blank) TODAY, how are you going to enjoy the upcoming holidays...this election would be over.
We are stuggling, and both my husband and I have professional careers.
I can't imagine what single head of households are dealing with now...
The republicans have no answer...just like Sen. Biden said...THE SILENCE IS DEAFENING.....
September 7, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this is the RNC Convention bounce the election is over. It is all down hill from here for McCain and Palin.
September 7, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Mexico (Reuters) - Republican nominee John McCain said in an interview aired on Sunday he would bring Democrats into his Cabinet and administration as part of his attempt to change the political atmosphere in Washington.
This is a national headline, for christ sake? Ummmm, so hard to guess who.
September 7, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Liber(lair)man
September 7, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh by the way. I am not sad....I am mad as hell I am not going to take it anymore.
I have had enough. This has been a long snowball building SINCE Katrina... it is only getting worse.
This is why I donate, register voters, and knock on doors, have a sign in my yard, and have a bumper sticker on every car.
I where my campaign hat wherever I go and talk facts as much as I can to anyone who has a question.
It is time for a change....
So no, I am not worried at all, but I refuse to be sad, or depressed, I prefer RAGE, because it has action.
September 7, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good for you, I agree wholeheartedly!
September 7, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
YEAH!!! If we want change....if you are tired of shit the way that it is.....if you have said ENOUGH....vote your pocketbook, vote for a better life for you and your family, your kids, your future. We must become the change that we seek. No one said that this was going to be easy, so we must get off our asses and work hard to to put this country in a better direction.
About me: 35 year old, black woman who has served 10+ years in the US Army and is using the G.I Bill to pay for classes while I work full time at UCLA medical center(the name has been changed to Ronald Reagan medical center) as an open heart surgical technician. I am struggling to do both study and work...but education is the only way I am going to get a raise. There is not cost of living increase in wages but the CEO's and such continue to get bonuses for the hard work that the employees perform on a daily basis. People are being forced to work overtime because there isn't enough staff. No one but the higher ups are coming out on top financially.
I am struggling to just take care of me so I can only imagine what those that have more than just themselves are handling this fucked up economy.
This election is all about the issues and that's why I support, donate, and volunteer for Obama any chance I can.
It's about the gas prices. It's about the cost of a gallon of milk for that single mother and her child. It's about affordable daycare so that both parents can afford to work to bring in a decent income. It's about that parent or sibling who is sick and can't afford health insurance. It's about the child that has that has to stay home and take care of their siblings because mom is working two jobs just to keep a roof over their heads. It's about our environment that has been destroyed on the daily. It's about my right to choose, not the government. It's about my right, your right to love whomever you love and not be judged by that. It's about my right to freedom of speech, freedom of religion and not being told that if I don't believe in the same as you, I am wrong. It's about sooo much.
I may not be able to give much monetarily but my time is just as valuable.
Let's make it happen people!!!!
September 7, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
A bounce is just that a bounce. Can we move on...please?
September 7, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
A very interesting datum from one of yesterday's polls. Palin's favorable rating among men is around 65, and only barely 50 among women..
I guess women smell the phonyness and pettyness in this hockey mom, who puts her career ambition over her children.
And yet others get jealous when seeing McCain hanging out with a relatively young Palin. Reminds them of the unsettling feeling of seeing their elderly husband staring down at a cute, bubbly mom passing by.
Men are falling over Palin for obvious and visible reasons.
So as someone already stated, the Palin threat isn't about women. It's about the non-thinking men who likes staring at a hot chick and forgets the pocket-book issues.
September 7, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Men are thinking with the little head instead of the big head. Women are clearly less cynical and more skeptical of Gov. Palin. And that is why Obama is doing so well among the female electorate.
September 7, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
And as the reality of election approaches, many of these men (not all) will start to think a little more rationally.
September 7, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Men are be substantially more likely to be Republicans than women do. A lot of this is likely plain partisan identification: Republicans love Palin and Democrats loathe her.
September 7, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I highly recommend this postingat fivethirtyeight.com by Sean Quinn, which uses a hockey metaphor to make an excellent point about Palin's role as an agitator in this election. As stated therein, I do think the Obama campaign gets it, but as for the rest of us on Obama's side, not so much.
September 7, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty big bounce - the Republicans are apparently fired up. We'll see this taper out and we'll be back to where we were before the conventions.
Also, keep in mind that McCain has to dump the rest of his campaign money, so he's been blasting the airwaves with ads. I think the Obama camp is saving up for something, because they have stashed a huge warchest during the conventions. $10M for Palin's speech alone, let alone donations from the DNC itself.
I believe the Obama camp is going to do an all-out assault in the last month. They'll have $200M to dump in 30 days (McCain will be lucky to still have $75M left), and if coupled with some hard campaigning and press coverage, we'll see a last minute bounce.
September 7, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Sarah's talking to Charlie Gibson this week"
Ah, kickback for Uncle Charlie, who abruptly cut away from Joe Biden's speech, introducing himself as the VP pick in Springfield, as soon as Biden started to rip into McCain.
Move along, says Uncle Charlie. Nothing to see here.
September 7, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh is absolutely right. This is the most pathetic group of people. here we are going through 2 major wars, an ecnomic crisis and they are "tutoring" her?????? "Tutoring"? Why on earth did you pick her if she needed tutoring? Does she need a month to complete her tutoring? What do they think we are? STUPID? Iam incensed by this behaviour and unbecoming of a presidential campaign. They are playing with the american people, I am disgusted. Now she is going on the charlie Gibson show. Well, I'll believe it when I see it. She and the lot that are supporting her are a disgrace to America.
September 7, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's try that again, but without the damn html tags, which I can never get to work on TPM. The URL is
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/sarah-palin-is-not-hockey-mom.html
and this is another attempt at an html tag.
September 7, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
What the above polls say is:
1. When a hundred or so of the sort of folk who still have land-lines, pick up their phones and are asked polarized questions designed to generate pro-Republicant responses . . . Only 48% care to say that they will cast a ballot for the insane bastard and the prosecessionist rapturite.
2. Folk who hang out at political blogs hyper themselves into frenzies over poll-stakes races.
3. The Republicants will be fund-raising off the handjob from the corporate media due to the yeast in the largely meaningless numbers.
September 7, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somebody gets it.
September 7, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't trust these numbers because they mostly represent people who have land lines for phones. Obama's voters, being younger and often poorer, frequently own only cell phones therefore they are drastically under represented in this polling data.
September 7, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
*yawn* McCain can only tie Obama on Rasmussen WITH a Convention bounce? That's pretty pathetic. And he has his biggest lead EVER in Gallup! 3 points! Woow. Senator McCain, you're sure to win now!
The real important polling starts around a week from now. Until then, none of these national polls matter. They really don't. National polling matters very little to begin with. Under the hood of a Convention bounce, they matter even less.
September 7, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually this hurts McCain/Palin because they can't play the underdog, which I think fed the media taking it easier with him. The more the media sees McCain as the front runner, the more their "ratings" instinct kick in and go after tearing down the front runner.
September 7, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very good observation.
September 7, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush had a +7 to +11 lead over Kerry at this time of September.
And there is probably a lot of movement in a slew of states that were already in McCain camp, and even a little movement in states that Obama has locked up.
The question is how is this playing in Ohio, Michigan and Florida. And listening to McCain the last couple days (AARP and Face the Nation) they have nothing to offer. This is probably the best McCain/Palin will see and then Obama/Biden will begin to whittle whittle away.
September 7, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a reason why pollsters do not do state polls during weekend because they are less accurate.
Let's see what happens to the state polls this week and next week.
September 7, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. And in spite of the power of the 24/7 news media and the blogs, the local press in the swing state becomes more important in places like Ohio and Michigan. It'll be interesting to see the results of where Indiana is at after all this, when the last poll had Obama only behind by 2, within the magin of error. There are plenty of people here that will love her, but they were already solid McCain supporters.
September 7, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's start calling him McBush rather than McSame.
Also, I'd like to see it called free choice instead of pro choice. It sounds more like freedom, free to be. As in Palin wants to deny victims of violent crimes their freedom of choice.
September 7, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain said he wanted to pick a VP aligned with his values. The Dems needs to hammer that if this is so then McCain wants to abolish abortions for rape and incest victims (even though his own wife Cindy is opposed to such a ban).
September 7, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
That probably does reach more people than trying to tell them what is really at stake, which is our privacy right in our own bodies.
That's what it is really about - not sex, not babies - it's about whether or not women have as much of a privacy right to our own bodies as men do.
September 7, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
And we should not say "pro-life" either but "anti-woman's choice" "Pro choice" ain't bad but it is really more "pro family" in effect.
September 7, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sigh. Fake McCain weekend bounce + real convention bounce = overstatement of McCain's actual covention bounce.
September 7, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
With Willie Brown now declaring that the Dems are in trouble....
September 7, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've never liked him, but really is anyone listening to him. Obama should throw him under the bus as far as I'm concerned.
But it does bring up the issue that the Dems have a harder time of getting on the same unified talking points. In part, I don't want to become the "Delay do exactly as we say or will be punished" party just so we can win, but the spokespeople for the Dems need to think of the greater good when they open their mouth.
September 7, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Willie Brown is an ass. Can't stand him, I am near S.F. Lots of feelings around here mutual.
September 7, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I lived in the Bay Area for a year and that was my impression, too. He's all politician with no substance to speak of.
September 7, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin got help from corrupt oilman during her first run for state office
September 04, 2008
..Allen was one of those “good ol' boys” who Palin touted taking on in Alaska when she gave her vice-presidential speech last night at the National Republican Convention.
http://alaskadispatch.com/tundra-talk/1-talk-of-the-tundra/92-palin-relied-on-corrupt-oilman-when-she-made-her-first-run-at-state-office.html
September 7, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats continue to believe in the ultimate "intelligence" of the electorate, which is belied by the last 2 elections.The "data" seem irrelevant to the majority of American voters,including the disastrous last 8 years.All McBush had to do was say he is a reformer and an advocate of change, thus neutralizing Obama's strength.It doesn't matter whether its true.And Palin is correct to refuse to be questioned. The voters don't seem to care about her positions and behavior with respect to any serious issue.That's the truth.
September 7, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
The last two elections?
Yeah, if you totally ignore 2006 - it's like it never happened.
Well it did. Dallas County threw out 49 REpug judges in one fell swoop and replaced them with 49 Democrats.
September 7, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the Republican strategy is to bet on those in the rust belt to not cAre about the issues than they will lose. That doesn't mean people will have first impressions and respond to marketing, but when it comes to voting they want someone to save their states. Being here in Indiana, I can say that everyone is seeing nothing but bleakness if nothing is done. And they can care less in the end how many moose you've killed. And that is the truth.
September 7, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't take much intelligence to train a monkey to figure out which switch push in order to receive a treat; some but not much. Considering a human population as a whole, when given the option of two switches each containing a treat,one being smaller but tastier and the other just larger, there will always be ones' who will decide the larger treat is better, regardless of taste.
September 7, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
National polls like Gallup serve to reinforce the BigMedia-pushed narrative of the day. They knowingly play a role in the song and dance of the Conglomerate Media, since the cocktail weenie-ists can point to them to validate their storyline du jour.
They are laughed at by a those in the biz, as David Plouffe said last week. Oh, and I was saying this exact same thing with Obama was up 10. It's remarkable that Obama has had a lead for so long, and how large that lead has been at times given how much the deck is stacked against Obama.
September 7, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm afraid end-convention numbers like these mean a Obama defeat in November, at least if history has any say in the matter. The GOP -- cynical, sneering, mocking, lying, hateful, fear-mongering assholes that they are -- are about three times more adept at winning elections than Democrats. They have out-maneuvered the Dems at every step of this race because they thoroughly understand the stupidity of the American electorate and have n0 shame in exploiting it to the max. The way they stomped on Obama's European trip and turned it into something nasty on the bottom of their shoes and then totally eclipsed the Democratic convention, to the point of virtually blotting it from the collective memory, are marvels of political gamesmanship. That they could find a paleo-conservative like Palin and turn her literally overnight into a working class heroine a la Hillary Clinton, and this despite the abyss that separates the two women on matters of principle and policy, reveals a level of political shrewdness and prescience that can only be called genius. Talk about being out-classed! Does anyone seriously think it was all an accident? And if you imagine that Palin is somehow going to implode or go down in a blaze of scandal, you're deluding yourselves. Anything the Dems bring against her is going to be deflected by the guys beating up on the gal meme -- every bit as unaddressable in this election season as POW, POW, POW. Personally, I feel thoroughly defeated and depressed by everything I've seen these last twelve days, and these tracking poll numbers are simply the cold touch of reality on the back of my neck. I see nothing in the Dem's response that suggests anything resembling a strong game plan ahead. To the contrary, they are once again in full dithering mode. They haven't managed to get a word in edgewise into the MSM for twelve days! McCain & Co. are dictating the game from top to bottom (it's about wasting the victory in Iraq, stupid; it's about character, stupid; it's about abortion and homosexual marriage, stupid; it's about a prissy elitist who loves terrorists, stupid) and the Dems are helplessly bleating ,"No, isn't it supposed to be about the economy, isn't it?" Nah, the "people" know that what we really need now is a trigger-happy old-fuck president and a babe vice president who can read a teleprompter. "Yup, yup, huh, huh, pretty -- especially with gun, huh, huh." These days, if you put a skirt on a hangman, 10% of the American public will gladly help him put the rope around their necks. And 10% is all it takes. It's pathetic beyond words. Folks, I've seen a few presidential elections in my day, and the lesson here and now is really quite simple. When the Democrats are this slow out of the post-convention blocks, they lose the election. Period. Now go gamble on Intrade while you still have a chance to make some money.
September 7, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
So with all that, they've created a tie in Ras national poll, and a +3 in the gallop, taking in all the considerations that have been mentioned before. If the Repubs were so skilled then they wouldn't have to wait until the actual days just after the convention to have anything that looks like a lead.
The other cold reality is that they got a bounce and that will fade as people tune in and hear nothing new coming from Mccain beyond "take on the old boys network."
September 7, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Nice way to turn tail and run. Is that you, Karl Rove?
September 7, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, how many years did he try to get Bush to call him Blue Skies rather Turd Blossom. Kind of sad, really.
September 7, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn, you need to change your screen name. What most are missing in all this is that there has never been a campaign like the Obama campaign. They knew from the outset that they were not going to win on the "narratives" front. The Big Media won't let them no matter how masterful they are a framing and attacking, which they've been pretty good at throughout.
They will win because they put the majority of the resources into ground game in part to counteract this disparity. They are shattering every single metric for grassroots campaigning. I've been around for several Prez elections now, and the excitement about this ticket is way beyond any I've ever seen. I remember 2004 where most people I knew got behind Kerry rather reluctantly and there certainly wasn't a overabundance of enthusiasm even among Party faithful. Kerry almost won (might've if you look into the OH fiasco more), and he was going against an sitting Prez who was waving the 9/11 flag constantly.
Obama is light years ahead of Kerry in ground game and enthusiasm. Unlike you, I actually see blue skies ahead. Daily tracking polls are virtually meaningless.
September 7, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blue Skies: Let me introduce you the concept of the paragraph. You're probably unfamiliar with paragraphs, since you don't learn about them until the 12th grade.
Stay in school, fool!
September 7, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow...what a raincloud you inhabit...
Please tell me what magic wand McCain intends to wave to make Obama's ground machine disappear?
How will anything that happened in St. Paul undo the community relationships these ground offices now have because they have been open for so long?
And what device will McCain use to diffuse Obama's money machine that outraised McCain 8:1 during the GOP convention?
And also please tell me what connection there is between daily tracking polls and what is going on in the States? Here's a hint: NOTHING.
McCain is going to loose because he is asking the People to be rewarded for Electoral failure. Such was a theme of his awful speech.
He is going to loose because dems have outpaced GOP voter regisrations in key states.
He is going to loose because this election will be won on the ground, at the local level, where it began.
And he is going to loose because, frankly, Obama wants it more.
Chin up, now!
Pax,
M.
September 7, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
O my god, Marioth - you're right. Not only that, we want it more.
Wow - you are so right.
September 7, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
After watching McPastit's speech, all the Want is spent. Palin is truly his heiress. And her Want is toxic, particularly to women.
September 7, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Couldn't have said it better. Our response isn't very effective at all. Dems just couldn't do a good job smearing others.
And yes, Palin would be a good debator, just watch her governor's debate from 2006. Unless Biden could corner her, and the moderator keeps their hands off, she would come out stronger.
Trooper-gate isn't gonna cut it. Despite the stonewalling, the team has pulled in the date of the report. Palin would be in the clear, just like the many suits brought against her while she was mayor for wrongful termination.
The GOP is probably laughing their balls off since while they are training their new star poodle, we are not doing anything.
To take down some of Palin's fav numbers, attack her for lack of family values. Yes, attack her for not being a good mom. Generate some controversy. Get some medical experts to talk about down syndrome kids and how how taking care of them is a full time job, but rewarding. Paint her as running away from family duties in pursuit of personal ambition.
Of course, that's the job of a 527. Biden can attack her on other fronts.
September 7, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
They haven't managed to get a word in edgewise into the MSM for twelve days!
I've noticed the same. McCain and his campaign had easy access all during the Democrat Convention as well as their talking heads.
Once Palin was announced,the Democrats have all but been forgotten by the MSM. Only the blogs on the net have taken the repugs to task and are vetting her background.
The MSM will eventually get their chance to individually interview her with softball/mommy questions as if she were competing for the title of Betty Crocker.
McCain's deception is working like a charm. The MSM hasn't a clue they've been duped, and Obama and Biden are being left out in the cold. I hope this is just the lull before the storm and Obama and Biden hits both McCain and Palin like a category 6 hurricane before both seasons end.
ps - by the way, using one paragraph to get your point across is a good way to get people to read every word of what you have to say.
September 7, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I might add that on this day last week, a Sunday after McCain's veep pick but the day before the pregnancy announcement, 3 days after Obama's speech, he was polling between +8 and +11 nationally.
The best McCain can do under equivalent circumstances is 0 to +3.
Of course, this will probably get worse before it gets better.
September 7, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah- but, I bet you willie brown will show up on hardball tomorrow and spew the same shit and everyone will hog it up and the world will believe it. that is how it works. can he NOT STFU.
September 7, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Willie does what Willie thinks is in his best interest. If STFU is in his long-term best interests, he might. I'm sure the Obama people are in contact with him right now.
September 7, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, it won't be Hardball. It'll probably be David Gregory's show. I bet David's building a special shrine for him as we speak.
September 7, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
OT: I really appreciated your blogpost. I didn't comment, but I did recommend.
September 7, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, CT Voter. Coming from you that means a lot!
September 7, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah- but, I bet you willie brown will show up on hardball tomorrow and spew the same shit and everyone will hog it up and the world will believe it. that is how it works. can he NOT STFU.
September 7, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it true that Hillary hits the trail tomorrow? Wonder what she'll have to contribute...
September 7, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's in Florida tomorrow. She'll focus on the "issues," but my guess it will be health care health care health care, and how the Repubs failed to address it at the convention or since. And she'll probably take on Social Security, too. She won't mention Palin by name (except maybe to say McCain/Palin Ticket), but she she knows whatever she says will be directed right at her and those women who think voting for Palin is similiar to voting for Hillary.
September 7, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll give you a hint, ZIPPO. If anything, she will subtly undermine obama in her quest for 2012. Send her and mr. bill to timbuktu until november.
September 7, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree with this. With Ted moving to the sidelines, Hillary sees her newest opportunity to become the Lioness of the Senate. She may not become President, but she has the opportunity to become the most powerful Senator in the country (especially if the Dems have a sizeable majority).
September 7, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's only room for one alpha-female in the room with the 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling and it belongs to her.
September 7, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Queen Bee the concept you're looking for?
September 7, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Danny:
We keep getting bullied into accepting attacks on us and being fearful of attacking them. The best really do lack all conviction.
Joe
September 7, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree. They are afraid to attack McCain because he has a military background (note that Bush wasn't afraid to attack Kerry, quite the opposite).
And now they are afraid to attack Palin because she is a woman.
September 7, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the actual results of those two results of 2004 and 2000, and that is with two non-dynamic candidates. Those tactics did not create blow-outs. It was down to the wire in a highly divided country between conservatives and liberals, as it will be for many years to come. Obama took down Clinton Machine slowly but surely, and that is what they will do with McCain Machine.
September 7, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see your point. And I hope you're right.
September 7, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt its lack of conviction or fear. I think both Obama and Biden are covering their bases and getting the facts together.
When they're ready, they'll hit both so fast, neither McCain or Palin will know what hit them and they will be floundering in events moving faster than they can handle.
By the time they recover and regroup, election day will be around the corner and they won't have enough time to get their damage-control teams rolling to repair the damage and counter-attack Obama and Biden.
At least, that's what I'm banking on.
September 7, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well now that the concern trolls have paid their long-winded visits, I know the Repugs are in trouble.
It's like the Swallows returning to Capistrano - you can count on them to tell you which way the wind is blowing.
:)
September 7, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
September 7, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has not faced the U.S. media since her surprise pick to run for vice president 10 days ago, will begin giving interviews in a "few days," Republican presidential nominee John McCain said in remarks aired on Sunday. Within the next few days and I'm strongly recommending that she come on 'Face the Nation' with Bob Schieffer," McCain said in an interview that was taped on Saturday.
But McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, would not go that far.
"She'll agree to an interview when we think it's time and when she feels comfortable doing it," David said on "Fox News Sunday."
WHO THE FUCK IS RUNNING THIS SHOW?
September 7, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
It shows that the Obama strategy on this worked and they were forced to do what they didn't want to do, to the extent that the left hand was not on the same page as the right hand. It given that it will be in Alaska, it would be Thursday at the earliest. Chances are it won't air until Friday when no one is watching, which will leave most of the people still wondering, where does she stand on the issues?
September 7, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's how it's described in Politico:
The McCain campaign was forced into something by the Obama campaign and the national media.
Wonder if that will be noticed?
"Under pressure" aren'tn words you want associated with your campaign in any way.
September 7, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Noticed? I don't think so, a little too nuanced for the general media and electorate. But it shows that McCain and company are not able to run the show completely.
September 7, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain and company aren't even able to put a fucking Power Point together.
Oh wait I forgot, they meant to use a middle school in Hollywood as a background.
September 7, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
But if Politico is using the word "pressure" it might catch on. Who knows, it could happen.
September 7, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pressure is a relative term. Relative to its use. Exactly how much force was used to produce the desired result is what I question. Will Gibson really dig into her past experiences as mayor and governor, both good, bad, and questionable as well as her ability and knowledge to be VP and President if necessary. Or will his questions be more in line of Mother of the Year.
September 7, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Gallup Daily Tracking poll's weekend bias against Obama has been one of the most consistent thing in this campaign since the primaries. It happened last week, the week before, the week before that, etc., etc.... Wait until Tuesday.
September 7, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
From what I remember from my Stats 301 class, polls that show a consistent rating could be considered biased in that the mix is not diverse enough.
They could be hitting on the same people or demogrphics which would skew the results to a specific side. The repug telephone from the Truman election was the one cited. Although they used a good mix of random calls thru-out the US, they didn't realize that at the time mostly repugs owned phones. So the polls were unintetional skewed to indicate a repug landslide over Truman.
Gallup may be using a gaming theory that unintentional skews their results towards the repugs. The fact that their results are are not similar/ in-line to other polls should be a warning to them.
September 7, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahead??
We ignore this at our peril. I see the automatons at Daily Kos want to dismiss Gallup, but they were fine with Gallup when Obama was 8 points ahead.
Talk about denial.
I'm not feeling good about this election, because the McCain campaign seems to be in the driver's seat with a clear attack strategy, and the Obama campaign is all over the place.
September 7, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you watch Obama in Indiana yesterday? All over the place? Either you're just not engaged or a troll. Case in point, Palin is now doing an interview when as of TODAY they were being all defensive and saying we'll do it when we want to.
September 7, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second. NOt only was he not "all over the place", he went after Palin quite pointedly, thereby refuting the earlier claim that he's afraid to attack a woman.
'Course, the criticism will now be that Obama shouldn't be the one making those attacks.
As an anonymous poster at Kos said of Obama: "If he walks on water, that means he can't swim".
September 7, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watching CNN, he and his comments got a lot of airplay. Had it been Biden, it doubt it would have seen the light of day. The problem with Biden at this particular point is that media perceives him as not that popular--not in regards of whether people agree with him, but whether people are interested in hearing what he has to say. So Obama has to be one making the attacks at this point.
September 7, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
The complacent always lose. It's cliche, but it's true. Obama had a great ground operation. But don't underestimate the excited conservative base. They brought the bozo from Texas into office and keep him there for 8 years. I wasn't worried about them this time until Palin. The other day she drew 12000 people somewhere you wouldn't expect it.
And since we are on the topic of who's driving the agenda. We need to take the POW thing and turn it on its head. Have some shrink on TV talk about how POWs are prone to reckless behaviors due to the tortures and helplessness they suffered. The psychological effects get more pronounced and unpredictable with age, responsibility , and stress.
Someone needs to come out and say. We owe John McCain a lot of gratitude and respect. But do we owe him the presidency? Ask how Grant and Dwike compare with McCain. Ask what has he actually learned at the Hanoi Hilton? How does that make him a good president?
Only the paranoid survive. Now go on the attack.
September 7, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink