Expert: McCain's Ads Won't Be All Down Until End Of Today
Though the McCain campaign announced yesterday that it's pulling all its ads, in reality the logistical challenges of doing that are so daunting that it's unlikely all of McCain's ads will be off the air until the end of today -- by which time it might not end up making much of a difference in the first place.
Evan Tracey, who tracks national ad buys for the Campaign Media Analysis Group, estimates that it'll take until tonight before "95 percent" of McCain's ads are down, and even then McCain spots will still continue to run in markets here and there around the country.
With Congressional leaders announcing moments ago that they have an agreement in principle to pass a bailout package, the McCain campaign could end up telling its stations to air his spots tomorrow, meaning that his decision to unilaterally disarm might not really have amounted to a setback for him in any meaningful sense.
"It's not as easy as it sounds -- you can't just decree that all stations stop airing your ads," Tracey tells me. "McCain has been running roughly 2.600 ads a day. You're talking about four to six stations in every media market, six markets per state, with ads in 12 states."
The reality is that closing down a modern campaign's advertising might entail having your ad buyers make dozens of calls to different stations around the country, some of which are small and technologically backward and might be slow about pulling the spots at any rate. This explains why many readers have been reporting to us and other Web sites that they've seen McCain's ads still running.
Tracey stressed that what he's hearing from stations confirms that the McCain campaign is in fact working hard to pull its ads, and adds that this could conceivably hamper McCain politically. "They are legitimately out there trying to pull their spots with vigor," Tracey said. "He is basically going to be drawing down in very important media markets."
Still, if a deal is reached today, which looks increasingly likely, and the campaign instructs its buyers to tell stations to go back up tomorrow, McCain's unilateral disarmament might not amount to quite the act of self-sacrifice it was intended to seem.
The hell you say!
If they pull the ads, do they get their money refunded?
I was wondering about the financial ramifications of this.
September 25, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
This was a disasterous decision. There is not one front on which McCain wins from suspending his dwindling faculties. He plays Emperor, clapping his hands together to invent lies out of purple smoke, and calling it "action."
This man is being revealed as a liar and a fraud. I would really like to know who, exactly, is making his campaign's decisions.
September 25, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, now this here:
"Though the McCain campaign announced yesterday that it's pulling all its ads, in reality the logistical challenges of doing that are so daunting that it's unlikely all of McCain's ads will be off the air until the end of today -- by which time it might not end up making much of a difference in the first place..........
it'll take until tonight before "95 percent" of McCain's ads are down, and even then McCain spots will still continue to run in markets here and there around the country."
is what they call piss poor planning!
Not very presidential at all. Looks like not a lot of thought went into this tactic. It was all shoot from the hip...just like Palin...no vetting just shoot from the hip. Can't imagine what this type of capricious, impetuous decision making means for someone who can push the red button following a 3 AM call!!!
September 25, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's just so Mavericky, don't you think?
Ready, fire, aim.
September 25, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is making McCain's campaign decisions? Is it still Rick Baker, or is he preparing his resignation announcement?
September 25, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rick Davis, you mean?
September 25, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the key. They can get their ads off the air on a moment's notice, but they'll forfeit the money paid (or at least a good chunk of it) for doing it on short notice and decreasing the network's ability to resell the time.
Somehow, I don't think they are THAT concerned with "suspending" their campaign. Not if it costs them $$.
September 25, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the end of the week the whole McCain gambit is going to look silly and amateurish. This really smacks of a hasty decision made after the Obama phone yesterday with Schmidt and Davis snickering that this would really get Obama's goat. I am sure, though, that McCain will claim that this sort-of-suspension was the catalyst for an agreement.
September 25, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
No need to take 'em down now. The situation no longer requires Big Johnnie to ride to the rescue.
September 25, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to mention that Barney Frank says he was irrelevant to the process anyway.
Go Barney.
September 25, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stupid links.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0908/Frank_Republicans_winced_when_McCain_was_mentioned_in_meeting.html?showall
September 25, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep! That's MY congressman! Go Barney!
September 25, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see logistical issues in asking Tucker Bounds and Nancy to stay home or away from network TV :) What's the excuse for their in-person attacks during a suspended campaign?!
September 25, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they really wanted to stop ALL the the ads, they could do it on a dime. What they wanted was to get the attention of making the play, while still giving Obama punches on the sly. I noticed a couple of McCain advisers were on FoxNews attacking Obama. I guess they didn't get the orders to stand down.
September 25, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
you know.. they're going to need all the advertising they can get to recover from tonight's Couric-Palin interview.
CBS Couric interview sneak peek
September 25, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, if that doesn't spark an Eagleton, nothing will.
September 25, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tina Fey should not even bother. Too. Fucking. EASY.
September 25, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good Lord. She's incoherently grasping at straws EVERY TIME she is asked a question. I don't know why it continues to surprise me, but it does. Maybe it's the accumulative effect.
September 25, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. The Lord is good! The good Lord giveth Sarah. And Sarah giveth unto the people.
September 25, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow.
This is just like that woman caller on C-span said. She called on the McCain line and then said that she had been to a Palin rally and that Sarah simply talks around the issue and never answers the questions.
Unbeliiiiievable.
WTF? What was she even trying to say? She is just incomprehensible. What does she mean about the air space and being right there and the land and our state is where they launch 'it' from?
This is gibberish ...worse than a toddler who at least is struggling for the words but Sarah is struggling to come up with the very thought she needs to communicate with .
She attempts to hide her lack of substance with a blizzard of words.
meaningless words...words that do not form a coherent thought.
O..i know....
this is PAGEANT speak!!
That is just how those contestants do, when asked a question.
They never answer.
That caller on c-span was dead on.
She was an elderly woman and she had that Sarah pegged.
September 25, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Financial Markets will be closed for the entire weekend, long before the presidential debate time, tomorrow night, so Windsock McCain has no excuse for not spending a couple of Friday night hours out of Washington.
Click it on up. I want poor old John to get the good news. Thanks.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/attn-senator-windsock-mccain-t.php
September 25, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that's all really convenient, isn't it?
I'm sure no one on his campaign was aware that it might take so long. {rolling eyes}
September 25, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
from a fart a minute to Phartenhour.
September 25, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! That's good.
Even better than Hasenpfeffer.
As in, "Cook, bring my my hasenpfeffer!"
-- ARG
September 25, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, I hate it when you do this - you cannot draw that conclusion yet. You do not know whether this will end up having been a set-back to McLame. You cannot make that assumption - you cannot read the electorates' minds, Greg.
September 25, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
And you apparently can't read plain English. Greg used the word "could" several times, i.e., he is is posting his opinion and analysis. Just like you post yours. Get over it and stop hyperventilating every time he posts something with which you disagree. Are you sure you're an adult? You behave more like a kid having a temper tantrum.
September 25, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't interfere with her flirtation with Greg!
September 25, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena,
I agree with you.
September 25, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
This will be remembered in history as the first case of a suspension of a presidential campaign that no one ever noticed and didn't acomplish anything at all.
September 25, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perot suspended his in '96, but people noticed because he really did (for several weeks at least). it killed his campaign in the end
September 25, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
has anyone asked about how grandpa's fundraising has been going the last 10 days since the "fundamentally sound" comment, or in the month as a whole?
are they running out of cash? are they trying to defang Obama's financial juggernaut by encouraging him to stop running ads too?
methinks something along these lines will eventually be revealed
September 25, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Twirling,
I was thinking along the same lines. With Sen. Obama continuing to smash fund raising records, maybe Sen. McCain needed a breather to be sure he doesn't run out of money. By making the announcement, he hoped for residual play from the talking heads (sometimes known as newscasters), which is priceless (to steal from Visa) in terms of what it would have cost to actually fund that kind of exposure with real campaign money.
September 25, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts exactly. That's why I was asking about the financial ramifications of "pulling" the ads.
September 25, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't decide if McCain's camp realizes they made a mistake and is trying to backpedal, or if they're just really dumb.
September 25, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a type of cross pollination - the Palination effect. A little pollen here. A little Palin there. And pretty soon the mental ability is all Palinated. Very simple!
September 25, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both are plausible (and likely).
September 25, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deal is done now, Miccy will be able to debate after all . . .
September 25, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The article does say that there are some House GOP, in cahots with McCain, that are trying to put an alternative proposal out there.
Thereby dragging it out and making it appear that there isn't a deal, thus needing Mr Maverick to save the day.
September 25, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama might have gone in there and bought up all that freed up air time!
September 25, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dont know if you guys have seen the new clip CBS put out showing Gov Plain being interviewed by Cuoric interview.
In the clip, Katie asks Gov Plain to explain her comment about her having foreign policy experience because Alaska being is next to Russia. All i can say is I now see why McCain is hiding her from the press. Her answer is pretty brutal. I felt bad for her.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/palin-on-russia.html
September 25, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feel bad for Katie? Yeah, I wouldn't want to have pretend to take Palin seriously either.
September 25, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, i feel bad for Gov Plain. Forget her being ready to be VP she cant even handle herself in an interview.
This woman isnt ready for prime time and she knows it. She is embarrassing herself and her state. she wont be re-elected as Gov when this thing is over.
September 25, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure she does know it. Which is even more pitiful.
September 25, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
It strikes me that mcShame has been pretty stupid here. To ask for a meeting that will showcase him with bush.
Even Fox now has bush at only 26%. So, I ask you, how is a photo-op with bush gonna help mcShame?
These people have their talking-points - or maybe we should call them "foot-in-mouth-points" all mixed up!
September 25, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama should appoint me Ambassador to Canada. Just about my whole life has been spent in states that border the Great Lakes. And if you squint really hard, you can nearly imagine seeing Canada across the Lakes. I've bordered each and every one of them, mind you. And I've visited as far as Labrador and British Columbia.
I'm trying to drum up support here.
September 25, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, my home office has a globe in it. I can see all the foreign countries from where I sit. I might very well be a foreign policy genius.
September 25, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, excuse me, but what are the campaign staffers for? If the campaigh is suspended, they should have had plenty of time to contact every station. Certainly SOMEONE on his staff uses a computer?
September 25, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
staffers are for keeping sarah sequestered!
September 25, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama should make McDuck eat his words for the next 5 weeks.
Starting with: "Please tell us what it means to suspend your campaign and then tell us why you haven't done it."
For Palin: "Since you will be suspending your campaign as well, does that mean that McCain's staff will cede power back to the rightful administration in Alaska?"
While we're waiting for an answer, we have work to do.
September 25, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is the intrade betting on how soon the McCain campaign is "unsuspended"?
I never thought I would miss Ron Paul so much: http://tinyurl.com/4jbkb8
September 25, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't lie, if the deal is done and McCain resumes is campaign it was a keen political ploy. Keen indeed, who knows if it will do him any good or harm but indeed it was keen.
September 25, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/25/112753/718/777/609433
Another reason for the recent fiasco may be that McDuck's entire funding infrastructure is going down with Wall St. Stopping the ads (the "suspension") will save butt load of money.
I would also like to know which senators and representatives stand to lose the most from a prolonged fight and then what is their involvement with the final proposal.
September 25, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
So here's a thought: with W's press conference last night, all the posturing in the last 24 hours by McCain, etc., is anyone else getting a sense of deja vu from four years ago when we all had to endure the well-timed raises in the terror alert level?
September 25, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, we haven't even gotten there, yet. There are still five weeks to go in the campaign.
But we were close. I saw an article on MarketWatch yesterday speculating on whether or not the recent economic cratering was "economic terrorism."
September 25, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
As long as the CBS Sarah Palin/Katie Couric comedy routine is playing so well on the internet McCain's ads aren't suspended.
September 25, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I truly believe the McCain campaigns shutting down of AD's has more to do with available funds than suspension/unsuspension of campaign.
September 25, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe 'Mr. Smith' should have gone to Washington instead of John McCain!
September 25, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This McCain Ad played yesterday 9/25 in Cincinnati:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj4abfnmwwg&feature=related
Funny how McCain bails on the debate, but then he plays this ad blaming Obama "for being 'mum' on the financial crises.
September 26, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink