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Election Central Morning Roundup

RNC Ad Bashes Bailout, Says Obama Will Make Things Worse
The new RNC TV ad, targeted for key states, seriously undercuts the attempts at political consensus from President Bush, John McCain and Barack Obama that there should be a bailout, then warns that Obama would make things even worse:

"Meltdown," the announcer says. "Wall St. squanders our money. And Washington is forced to bail them out with -- you guessed it -- our money. Can it get any worse?"

Bill Clinton To Campaign For Obama Tomorrow
The Obama campaign has announced dates for campaign rallies starring Bill Clinton, who has been criticized in many media outlets for showing insufficient enthusiasm for Barack Obama. Bill will hold two rallies tomorrow in Florida, one in Orlando and the other in Fort Pierce.

Obama In Nevada, Biden Off The Trail
Barack Obama is campaigning in the swing state of Nevada today, with an event this morning at the University of Reno. Joe Biden is off the campaign trail, preparing for Thursday's debate with Sarah Palin.

McCain In Iowa, Palin At Debate Camp
John McCain is campaigning today in Iowa, a swing state where Barack Obama has enjoyed a big lead in all the recent polls, with a small business roundtable scheduled for 11 a.m. ET. Sarah Palin is off the campaign trail, cramming for Thursday's debate.

Obama Calls For Expanding FDIC Insurance
Barack Obama is calling for FDIC insurance on bank accounts to be raised from $100,000 to $250,000 in an effort to increase the confidence of small businesses in the banking system. "While that guarantee (of $100,000) is more than adequate for most families, it is insufficient for many small businesses that maintain bank accounts to meet their payroll, buy their supplies, and invest in expanding and creating jobs."

McCain Tries To Rebrand Bailout
Appearing on CNN this morning, John McCain said the bailout plan should instead be called a "rescue effort." Said McCain: "We haven't convinced people that this is a rescue effort not just for Wall Street but for Main Street America."

Palin Facing A Lot Of Pressure For Debate
The New York Times reports today on the anxiety many conservatives are feeling about Sarah Palin, ahead of Thursday's debate. "I think she has pretty thoroughly -- and probably irretrievably -- proven that she is not up to the job of being president of the United States," said former Bush speechwriter David Frum. "If she doesn't perform well, then people see it."


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Eric: Make things "work" or "worse"? I'd be thrilled if they said the former.

Love the Freudian slip in the headline - "RNC Ad Bashes Bailout, Says Obama Will Make Things Work"

Probably mean "worse" there...

However - it "works" for me.

I am no financial wizard but I do know that I want stability back. My wife is ready to sell all our investments at whatever loss there would be and basically put the money under the mattress.

If Palin does not perform disastrously, a lot of people will be disappointed. The stars of a freak show are supposed to inspire awe and a kind of disgust.

Don't let your audience down, Sara!

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Passing this along (from a friend):

For Sale:

"3.8 million square mile property built in 1776. Own these family friendly fruited plains and purple mountains majesty today! Wide open floorplan with 50 states and 5 major territories. Located conveniently on two oceans, easy commute to either Europe or Asia. Move-in ready with infrastructure, high speed internet available, clean water (except New Jersey) and low utility bills. Large unfinished Alaska also available. Serious emerging Asian economy inquiries only please.

I would buy, but im scared that putin would rear his head and eat all of alaska

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Alaska was a "test site" for Palintology. So...yeah, it's got a few problems.

Interesting that McCain hasn't let go of Iowa, which is pretty much in Obama's column. He should be in states like Florida or Virginia where he has an actual chance.

I was thinking the same thing. He really should be in Indiana, Virginia or North Carolina.

Must be that stubborn streak, that he can't believe he could lose any state in the midwest.

If he wants to waste his time and money in trying to win Iowa, better for us. Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida and Indiana are now on play and we're seizing the moment. Also, Nevada, where Obama will be today.

I was definitely pleased when I first saw that was where he was spending his time.

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I think it's nostalgia. Iowa led the nation. He wants them to come home.

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Sorry all. I misread acamus. And thought it was Obama that wouldn't let go...

Thanks for being kind in the face of my ... grogginess here this morning.

Too many meltdowns do not an alert brain make

Palin At Debate Camp
Oh boy, I get to go to camp! Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay!
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Wonder how that's workin' out - with her family there and all. Are they all takin' turns drillin' her with the flashcards?

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"Don't worry, Sarah... As soon as we have yer flashcards rootin', tootin' ready, we'll bring 'em to ya!"

Drill, baby, Drill! Drill, baby, Drill!

Posted on Pollster.com in the margins

07:22 | 30/09/2008
Andrea Mitchell, NBC Reporter
MSNBC's Morning Joe

Andrea Mitchell said on MSNBC's Morning Joe that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich,, worked very hard behind the scenes to kill the bailout plan, despite issuing a statement that he would have supported the legislation if where still in Congress

Mitchell Said:

"I am told reliably by leading Republicans who are close to him. He was whipping against this up until the last minute.... Newt Gingrich was telling people in the strongest possible language that this was a terrible deal, not only that it was a terrible deal., that it was a disaster it was the end of democracy as we know it that it was socialism, and then at the last minute comes out with a statement when the vote was already in play"

Newt really got caught out there. And was it me or was Joe Scarborough the world's biggest douche bag this morning? What crawled up his ass and died? And Mika B., when did she decide she was the female version of Alan Colmes? Rachel needs to make some morning appearances to combat the nonsense flowing from Joe's pie hole....

"was it me or was Joe Scarborough the world's biggest douche bag this morning?"

Um, that's every morning. :)

He was extra douchie this morning.

Republicans have been extra douchie on the last 2 weeks.

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Mika was no more bubbleheaded this morning than she is every other morning. If she were prettier, a sexist bastard could justify wanting her on tv. If she were smarter, no justification would be necessary. She's a cheerleader. She sits next to Joe and stares vacantly into the camera and giggles and plays with her hair, only stepping into the fray when all the slack is gone from the rope tethering her to Joe.

And don't even get me started on Andrea Mitchell...

What's your take on Andrea Mitchel?
:-P

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Hmmmm.... wonder where she could have gotten that info. Eating their own, are they?

The talking heads on CNN were basically all agreeing that there was now effectively a split in the GOP between the "northeastern" repubs and the "southern / western" repubs (who led the charge to defeat the bill, and are cast in Newt's mold).

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That does not surprise me. And there are other splits as well. I'm sure my right-wing brother-in-law in NH does not exactly share the religious zealotry etc. of Palin.

So I think we'll see more fracturing of their cobbled-together marriage.

Chuck Todd had an interesting take on the vote on last night's news. He said that all the house members (Dem and Repub) who voted against the bill are in close races for their seats. I'm in a western state and the congressman who is running basically unopposed voted for it and the congressman in a tight race voted against it. Just another interesting take.

Then Lawrence O'Donnell was on Scarborough this morning and directly contradicted that theory by saying tons of people in safe seats voted against it....Not one of the morons on set noticed the discrepancy or mentioned it.

I'd like to hear more on this theory. Are there really so many seats in serious contention this year?

I find it too good to be true to believe that 2/3 of all Republican House members are at risk.

Nate Silver over at 538 has the figures on this. Basically 80% of the reps who are in reelection fights voted no, while representatives in safe seats were split 50/50.

link here

Thanks, good link. From reading it though, I think the both the article's headline itself and Todd's analysis miss the point.

Yes, 80% of the congressmen in "toss-up" races voted against the bailout, but in raw numbers that's 30 to 8. That's not such a big number of votes out of 435.

Ideology seems to be playing a much larger role than short-term self-preservation, at least in my read.

That's not true. I have the vote tally up on my computer and alot of the members that voted againist the bill are in safe seats. Democrats Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Tim Holden, Mazie Hirono or Gene Taylor aren't facing anything tough re-election campaign and neither are Republicans Brian Bilbray, Mike Conaway, Bob Latta or Jack Kingston. I'm not saying Todd is wrong that members voted againist the bill who are facing tough re-election campaigns but not ALL of them.

Newt has become the leader of the republican party. The press should ask why isn't the party behind McCain? Newt has a ton of more power than PUMAS. This is how the republican party splits.

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A vacuum tends to suck on those who hang around it.

Why oh why won't Bill Clinton just STFU and disappear until after the election?

the FDIC insurance up to 250k is a good idea for "do waht you gotta do" to get it done.

Just forgive some damn debt! To do so would cost taxpayers nothing and can be done overnight. Why does know one talk about proven methods that actually WORK!?!?!?

Luigi Zingales, economist:
"Since we do not have time for a Chapter 11 and we do not want to bail out all the
creditors, the lesser evil is to do what judges do in contentious and overextended
bankruptcy processes: to cram down a restructuring plan on creditors, where part of the
debt is forgiven in exchange for some equity or some warrants. And there is a precedent
for such a bold move. During the Great Depression, many debt contracts were indexed to
gold. So when the dollar convertibility into gold was suspended, the value of that debt
soared, threatening the survival of many institutions. The Roosevelt Administration
declared the clause invalid, de facto forcing debt forgiveness. Furthermore, the Supreme
Court maintained this decision. My colleague and current Fed Governor Randall Koszner
studied this episode and showed that not only stock prices, but bond prices as well,
soared after the Supreme Court upheld the decision. How is that possible? As corporate
finance experts have been saying for the last thirty years, there are real costs from having
too much debt and too little equity in the capital structure, and a reduction in the face
value of debt can benefit not only the equityholders, but also the debtholders.....Do we want to live in a system where profits are private, but losses are
socialized? Where taxpayer money is used to prop up failed firms? Or do we want to live
in a system where people are held responsible for their decisions, where imprudent
behavior is penalized and prudent behavior rewarded? For somebody like me who
believes strongly in the free market system, the most serious risk of the current situation
is that the interest of few financiers will undermine the fundamental workings of the
capitalist system. The time has come to save capitalism from the capitalists."

http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/luigi.zingales/Why_Paulson_is_wrong.pdf

Indeed.

Sorry for the formatting on that. Do read it- it makes sense.

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Obama's plan for increasing the FDIC insurance up to 250K IS a good idea. I am glad he proposed that this morning.

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I'm seeing headlines attributing it to McCain, or to both of them. Who came up with it first?

McCain in Iowa
1. They have totally lost their minds
2. Johnny Snake Eyes is rolling the bones again
3. They know something nobody else does.

I think 1 and 2 are a bit more likely...

no way iowa goes red. iowa is obama's "new hampshire" for bill clinton.

4. McCain refuses to believe midwest state that is almost entirely white would vote for Obama over him.

LOL. OT: Obama up 51-45 in Rass tracking poll.

Two trackers have Obama at 51%!

I think opinions have begun hardening.

This McCain thing is way too weird and unstable. Obama is credible, calm, smart, cautious but not weak, Presidential. Picking between those two profiles is not difficult, and people are moving to the Obama camp for good now.

This just shows once again that McCain is a sucker for lost causes.

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I think the guy has a political death-wish. Wants to go down in a blaze of Infamy. It's the opposite of going down with the ship. It's taking the ship down with you.

He's crash-landing his bomber jet into the aircraft carrier (again).

It's in keeping with his plan for Victory in Iraq.

He's saying good-bye to Iowa. Think of it as a farewell tour.

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Oh, goody! I hope it's a long, leisurely farewell. We could have church bells ring a death knell in each town he visits. People could dress in black and show up at his rallies (passing out pink dice) - or maybe little coffins, saying RIP, to be hung from your rear-view mirror. Perhaps both.

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If Mitchell's report is true, it sounds very similar to Newt's stunt in 1995. And with the GOPers whining about Nancy's speech that hurt their feelings, it reminds me that the Newt led shutdown of government in '95 was, in part, due to the fact that he was pissed that he had to sit in the back of Air Force One.

Did not watch - why was Scarborough particularly douchie this AM?

I caught about 15 seconds of him whining about Pelosi's "overly partisan" speech and I had to change the channel.

Paulson shoud consider buying $700 B in Obama Intrade contracts. At least we'd get some return on our investment!

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Intrade: Obama now at 63

(mcCrapShooter at 37.5...)

That has to be getting close to his highest mark.

You know things are bad for the Repubs when they start churning out ads against their own candidate's stances.

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High stakes gambling.

McCain campaigning in Iowa? What's next, Berkeley?
Not that I'm complaining, but does he have time to lose like that?

Is this bailout-killing the only thing Newt has up his sleeve or is he up to something larger and more artful?

Did anyone happen to notice Palin's new gaffe during yesterday's McCain/Palin tandem interview with Couric? In describing the person in Philly who questioned her about Pakistan, Palin referred to him as a voter and a "constituent". Am I crazy? I thought she was governor of Alaska, not Pennsylvania.

Good catch.

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I noticed it. She loves the big words she does not understand!

It goes without saying that I am a partisan democrat, so I am hardly the world's foremost expert on how a swing voter will respond to an ad, but I would not be at all surprised if that RNC spot up top does not backfire badly. It never mentions a specific new tax or a specific new debt or a specific new expense (and incidentally, since when are voters against spending?). Given that there are no numbers, they are expecting voters to react badly against "taxes" or "spending" in the abstract, and I am not sure that an abstraction will seem nearly as scary to them as the very real meltdown that is occuring (in real time) on the Republicans' watch and at the Republicans' instigation. If anything, this ad could simply serve to make folks more nervous about the economy (the which always makes them more inclined to swing democratic) without actually doing anything to undercut the democrats perceived superiority on economic issues.

I kinda hope that the RNC is pouring a lot of money into this particular ad, because it looks like a very helpful assist to our forwards slamming the puck into the GOP's own net.

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Look at the buy and sell prices on Intrade. Obama's are very close to the mark.

But the "buy" for mcShame is "lower" than the current number... and of course the "sell" even lower than that.

I'm not a gambler in the slightest. But it seems to me something is propping up mcShame's current number... if you can buy for less than that. So something must be pulling down.... while being propped up... just like his candidacy.

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They just manipulated it again. But I watch those numbers... not just the current figure, but the buy and sell marks. It's always very strange when the buy is lower than the current mark. Never happens for Barack. Happens a lot for mcCrapshoot. (high stakes gambler that he is.... Cindy must be spending a lot of time at Intrade)

Work filter doesn't like intrade

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To be fair, Palin has proven herself to be crappy at being other stuff, too:

Hockey mom: Ask the daughter named after liquor about the amphibian growing in her gut.

Republican: Ask Stevens and Young about the current font of support . . . Especially in light of all the $$$ they funneled her way.

Mayor: Ask the city manager she hired to do her job and the citizens who were stuck about the HR0 millin in debt.

Governor: She has to bribe people in Alaska with graft to ignore her theiving and two-faced lying.

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"Meltdown," the announcer says. "Wall St. squanders our money. And Washington is forced to bail them out with -- you guessed it -- our money. Can it get any worse?"

Elect John McCain President

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Is that McCain event a "small business" roundtable or a "small" business roundtable? Since Palin's not with him, the second is probably an accurate estimate of the size of the crowd. ;-)

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