Election Central Morning Roundup
McCain Ad: Obama Wants More Taxes And Spending
John McCain has this new attack ad out, set to air nationwide, depicting Obama as a big spender who will raise your taxes:
Missing from the ad, of course, is any mention of the Republican Party's spending record in Washington, or Sarah Palin's recorded of raising both taxes and spending through the roof back in Alaska.
Obama In New Mexico, Biden In Ohio
Barack Obama is campaigning today in the swing state of New Mexico, where recent polling has mostly given him the lead, with a rally in Española. Joe Biden is campaigning in Ohio, where most polling has John McCain ahead, with stops in Canton, Akron and Youngstown.
McCain And Palin In Iowa And Wisconsin Today
John McCain and Sarah Palin are again campaigning together today. First up is a rally this morning in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and this evening they'll be holding another rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Poll: Obama Up In New Mexico
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 52%-44% lead in New Mexico, beyond the ±3.9% margin of error. This state just barely voted for Al Gore in 2000, then narrowly switched to George W. Bush in 2004.
Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Indiana
A new Selzer poll gives Barack Obama a 47%-44% lead in Indiana, with a ±4% margin of error, a surprising number for a state that hasn't voted Dem since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964. Most other recent polls have John McCain ahead here, but who knows, it could be the first sign of movement back towards the Democrats now that McCain's convention bounce is over.
Obama Ad: We Need Social Security, McCain Wants To Privatize It
Barack Obama has this unannounced attack ad running against John McCain in Michigan, tying McCain to George W. Bush, the troubled economy, and Bush's efforts to privatize Social Security:
"The Bush-McCain privatization plan," the announcer says. "Can you really afford more of the same?"
Author of 2002 Pro-McCain Book: He's Lost Me
Another formerly pro-McCain writer has turned on him in light of campaign developments. "McCain's recent conduct of his campaign," writes Elizabeth Drew, author of the 2002 book Citizen McCain, "his willingness to lie repeatedly (including in his acceptance speech) and to play Russian roulette with the vice-presidency, in order to fulfill his long-held ambition - has reinforced my earlier, and growing, sense that John McCain is not a principled man."
Halperin must have gotten an extra-strong batch of Republican Crack this week. He says that McCain won the week. WTF?
September 18, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, I'd love to see the polls after a week that Obama wins then.
September 18, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Halperin is such a fucking hack. I mean, if he believes that Obama lost this week, he'll never win a week in his fraudulent opinion.
September 18, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. That's ridiculous even for Halperin.
September 18, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain won the week? Is the week over already? What the hell am I doing at work?
September 18, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
i saw that and all i could do was shake my head.
September 18, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank god they're finally making an ad about Social Security privatization. Next up MUST be one about McCain's HUGE MIDDLE CLASS TAX INCREASE via taxing health benefits, to counter their blatant lies about taxes.
September 18, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, yes yes. I've been waiting for the Social Security attack.
I wonder why they're running this under the radar. I guess the idea is, when your opponent is melting down, with national news pummeling him about "the fundamentals of the economy," don't get in the way.
September 18, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why that ad isn't in Florida, I just don't know.
September 18, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Somebody must have forgotten because they couldn't take their eyes off what's not covered by your blue...
September 18, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
More good Obama news. Love it.
September 18, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Biden: Paying higher taxes patriotic
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080918/ap_on_el_pr/biden_taxes
Go Joe!
September 18, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Spain is in Europe... U-rup.
September 18, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden said Thursday that paying more in taxes is the patriotic thing to do for wealthier Americans."
Yes, Go Joe!
September 18, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Simply outrageous.
September 18, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to Republicans: spending $3 on a "Support the Troops" magnet made in China? Patriotic. Paying taxes to buy body armor for troops and to provide decent care for our wounded soldiers? Not patriotic.
September 18, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Totally OT, but I wanted you to know that I responded to your last from yesterday: see http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/obama_edges_ahead_in_the_natio.php#comment-3113528. I don't expect you to resume the conversation, but I was unable to continue it yesterday and I wanted you to be aware that you have the opportunity for the last word.
Cheers!
September 18, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Schmedley, for your response.
As a scientist, I am comfortable with Nate Silver's analysis of convention bounces...and I maintain that McCain's bounce, which was expected to last three to four weeks, was possibly shortened by the public vetting of Palin. I understand where you're coming from, however....shall we agree to disagree?
September 18, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, I don't expect we'll get any further on this. Thanks for the chat.
September 18, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Biden likes the "work-is-dignity,"rich people get more out of the system so it's patriotic for them to pay more" riffs- Bringing back FDR's Greatest Hits.
September 19, 2008 2:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
A point of clarification: Palin/McCain will stop at the Cedar Rapids Iowa airport for their rally. They could not fit any time into their schedule to go the 5 miles into town and see the flood damage from this summers floods.
Photo OP. Real concern?
September 18, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm hoping this means their getting ready to write off Iowa. It would be nice to see the commercials go away.
September 18, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
The trouble is, many people buy this higher taxes stuff just from rote memory. I have a neighbor who is by no means a republican but tells me he is sending money to the McCain campaign because he is a single man and he is sure Obama will raise his taxes because of this. I told him his taxes would actually be lower if he earns less than 250k a year.
Actually that's what I should have told him, I really didn't say anything at all about it. Come to think of it, this guy could well earn more than 250k as far as I know . . .
September 18, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
What on Earth is with this whole Spain debacle? Wow. Sadly, it's not going to make a dent over in the States. Knowledge of Europe is so...European.
September 18, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now if Spain had followed Georgia's lead and hired the right lobbyist - say, one who was also a top guy in McCain's campaign - not only would McCain know who Zapatero was, he'd be chatting with him every morning before breakfast.
Lesson to Spain: you get what you pay for.
September 18, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Understandable stumble for an old man. All of us Zapwhatevers are so easily conflated.
September 18, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure about that. Spanish-speaking voters won't like this.
September 18, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
This gaffe amplifies the confused-old-man image and tarnishes McCain's foreign policy credentials.
This also can't help McCain with the crucial Hispanic vote here in the states. Any time an Hispanic reporter is saying, in Spanish, what a dunce is this McCain viejo, that ain't good for the GOPs.
September 18, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
You all have it all wrong. When he says he admires Teddy Roosevelt, he REALLY means it.
September 18, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: the taxes thing. Why doesn't Obama trot out a big shiny bar graph showing who will pay what in taxes, a la Ross Perot. I love charts!
September 18, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Like this?
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/competing-tax-plans-two-perspectives/
September 18, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, precisely! I want to see surrogates with that chart, I want Obama to carry one around with him, pull it out, show people. People respond to charts, they transmit information very well.
September 18, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like the idea of a chart, but put it in an ad as a graphic. Obama himself whipping out a chart would be disastrous. The MSM would have a field day. I can already see Joe Scarborough's smug, ignorant face saying, "Look at the professor pulling out his charts!"
September 18, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed on that.
I'm confident we'll be seeing a more direct ad about his tax plan.
September 18, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me too. I want to see an ad where a middle-class family sits down and looks at what would happen to their taxes under Obama (bar graph) and then what would happen under McCain (bar graph).
It seems really straightforward to me. Why haven't we seen it? All I can figure is, graphs are geeky -- and Obama already has the geek vote signed, sealed, and delivered.
September 18, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great idea!
September 18, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget - it bears mentioning(again and again and again) that under McCain's plan, employer-funded health benefits are to be taxed as income.
September 18, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also missing from the ad - any mention of "celebrity".
September 18, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Questions I have this morning...
Why John McCain keeps lying about Obama's economy plan and doesn't present any of his own proposals on his ads?
Why Halperin and Drudge are so full of shit?
Why John McCain hates Spain so much?
Why the MSM hasn't cover yet McCain's despise for Spanish Primer Minister Zapatero?
McCain-Palin'08: Demasiadas mentiras! (So many lies!)
September 18, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why John McCain keeps lying about Obama's economy plan and doesn't present any of his own proposals on his ads?
Why Halperin and Drudge are so full of shit?
Why John McCain hates Spain so much?
Why the MSM hasn't cover yet McCain's despise for Spanish Primer Minister Zapatero?
September 18, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. Now I can enjoy my day!
September 18, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Halperin has some Oedipal shit going on with his dad, Mort Helperin. Mort was on Nixon's "enemies list" back in the day. Whichever way his dad leans, Mark will lean the other way.
Drudge is just constipated.
September 18, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe I'm reading too much into McCain's ad... But what's up with the dark shadow of The White House covering our cities, towns, and our white babies?
Fear of a Black Planet???
September 18, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Correction --Not the White House... But the Capitol Building.
September 18, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Subtle reference to "Independence Day" there...
September 18, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
At least in 'Independence Day' the Black Guy was the hero.
September 18, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn right!
September 18, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
What does it feel like to lie in bed knowing that some of your staunchest supporters in the past now think that you are "not a principled man"?
September 18, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
hey tena, hope you are going to espanola to see Obama today. I can't, gotta work.
but I volunteered last night, and almost everyone I talked to was for Obama!
Nuevo Mexico WILL go for Obama.
September 18, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Viva la fiesta!
September 18, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen: McCain 48 (nc) / Obama 48 (+1)
September 18, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yesss! The Palin bounce continues to fade!
September 18, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
who is palin?
September 18, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Some hack politician who looks like Tina Fey.
September 18, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I see Ras is still frantically tweaking his voter IDs to keep McCain's numbers up...
September 18, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why not do a better job of tying privitized social security to the market drop? Take a couple on social security and show the dollar amount they would lose in benfits each month if they had their money diversely invested in stocks and then how depleted thier monthly income would be if they had invested heavily in one of the failed banks or AIG.
Specific numbers would really hit the message home for a lot of voters.
September 18, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is an excellent suggestion. I hope someone in the Obama campaign reads this blog regularly.
September 18, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice to see the Indiana in the Obama column, even if just for one poll. Indianapolis able to overpower the rest of the state.
Obama's chance lies in minimizing the victories of McCain in other parts of Indiana. Here in eastern Indiana, there is a chance given enough labor and student support.
Unfortunately the sole Republican on the Delaware County Election Board voted down a motion to install an early voting site on the Ball State campus (which wouldn't have cost the taxpayers anything). Hopefully it will fire up the students.
September 18, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not just central Indiana but Northern Indiana, as well. Northern Indiana, though very conservative, is more politically moderate, like Iowa. Southern Indiana, on the other hand, will probably go big for McCain. Big turnout in The Region, South Bend, Ft. Wayne, Indy, Bloomington, and the labor force in industrial towns like Kokomo, Muncie, Anderson, Elkhart - who knows, he definitely has a shot in Indy, I think.
Also, look at this way - many Dems or Dem-leaners just don't vote in Indiana because it's so red. In a close race, they may be more willing to come out and vote. I think that's what Selzer's getting at in the poll - huge increase in youth and AA voting.
September 18, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dems not voting in the past is definitely a possibility. Not to mention that Indiana has always been one of the last primaries, so the race for the nomination was always decided by the time it came their turn. Now the Dems are fired up. Around Muncie I see more Obama signs and bumperstickers than McCain.
September 18, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
look at monroe, st joe, lake and marion county to be obama's taget
September 18, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Has Dem voter registration outpaced Republicans in Indiana as it has elsewhere?
September 18, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
So yesterday when the CNN polls came out I expressed puzzlement at the IN and NC results. As far as I was concerned, there was no way that IN could be safely red but NC be neck and neck. "Either they are both neck and neck or they are both safely red," said I. I was sure that one of those two poll results, either the NC or the IN, was inaccurate. Today's data suggest the happy possibility that it was the IN poll that was off base. Suffice it to say, that makes my day. Go Hoosiers and go Tar Heels.
Now if only I can get my own state to wake up and join the democratic wave that is sweeping the nation...
September 18, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was in Bloomington recently: the student body is all fired up for Obama. Not a hugh population, but hard to ignore in IN.
September 18, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
hugh = huge in SchmedSpeak
September 18, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
John McCain wants to keep rich folk from paying their fair share by taxing YOU.
September 18, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Quinipiac poll
OBAMA 49 MCCAIN 45
September 18, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
A nice little quote from Hagel:
"She doesn't have any foreign policy credentials," Hagel said in an interview. "You get a passport for the first time in your life last year? I mean, I don't know what you can say. You can't say anything."
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10435997
September 18, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
So why isn't he endorsing Obama? Wuss.
September 18, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Other money quotes from that:
"But I do think in a world that is so complicated, so interconnected and so combustible, you really got to have some people in charge that have some sense of the bigger scope of the world," Hagel said. "I think that's just a requirement."
So is Palin qualified to be president?
"I think it's a stretch to, in any way, to say that she's got the experience to be president of the United States," Hagel said.
September 18, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is Hagel considered by Repubs to be the Joe Lieberman of their party?
September 18, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
That ad makes no sense! The Republicans have ballooned government spending by borrowing money to pay for armaments to reign down on Iraqis. ENOUGH! I'm sick of my taxes and my kids' futures going to pay for war.
September 18, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
You all will be happy to know that Obama ads are now flowing freely in Missouri. The Corning ad ran about 10 times last night on NBC. A couple of weeks ago McCain was all you saw.
September 18, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cool. Sure hate to see my old home state stay on the darkside...
Some of my family needs to *get a grip*!
September 18, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I live in St. Louis and Obama yard signs and bumper stickers out number McCain probably 10-1. That is somewhat expected for a solidly Democratic metro area, but that also includes a lot of very upscale suburbs.
Something just makes me feel extra good when I see an Obama sign out in front of a $1M+ house.
September 18, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Social Security ad is NOT just being run in Michigan but apparently it is in other states as well.
Why they don't release that ad to the media so that the media can run it over and over again I don't understand.
Obama also needs to release an ad JUST ON TAXES including how 95% of working families will get a tax cut, >$250,000 will have their taxes as they were in the 1990's when the economy was booming, and how seniors making
September 18, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama doesn't want to be known as a negative campaigner, much like McCain is known as now. Obama does this under the radar and he does two things. He upholds his image and he can hit McCain hard. Do you know that 77% of Obama ads were negative last month? HOWEVER, 60% of people think McCain is the more negative campaigner. It's actually an ingenious idea.
September 18, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope they run that Social Security ad here in Minnesota. I was doorknocking last Saturday and a lot of seniors in my area (usually reliably Dem) didn't want to give me their preference for president. That's "Minnesota Nice" for "I'm not voting for Obama."
Seniors care about their retirement funds and health care, plus some have racial bias that's hard to get past. I hope this ad runs nationally - I believe it could boost numbers with seniors.
September 18, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Biden will get ripped up and down for his calling the rollback of the Bush tax cuts for the rich as "patriotic".
The right will scream bloody murder and try to continue their fake populist were on your side act.
What's incredible is this is the party that at its core feels that greed is patriotic, that screwing other people is patriotic, and that if you need help then it's your own fault.
This is what republicans have long believed, and worked to put in place public policy that reflect these beliefs.
Now we are seeing the final results of the values that drive the republicans. Look at Enron, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brother, Morgan Stanley, AIG, the entire mortgage industry, soon add Washington Mutual and Wachovia bank to the list of casualties.
The republican value system is finally being exposed as a flawed model that in the long term can only bring economic destruction.
In a final act of patriotism republicans now want to walk away from the mess that they created, after pocketing their ill gotten gains of course.
It doesn't take a commission to figure out how we got into this mess, and McCain sure as hell isn't going to get us out of it, or make anyone responsible pay for it.
September 18, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since John McCain is declaring War on Greed, perhaps he will go after those making over $250K who won't chip in a little extra so that this country can recover.
I'm in that category and I'm on board. It's the least I can do seeing how well I have profited from the policies that have benefited only me while kicking the butt of every one in the middle class.
September 18, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
For the love of God, will Obama please do something to counter the false claim that he's going to raise taxes on the lower and middle classes? This is a big issue, and the only issue, for lots of people.
September 18, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah he has to have a blitz of ads and surrogates until election day countering this claim that he will raise taxes. But I do think Obama will expose McCain in the second debate for his continuous lying of raising taxes.
September 18, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The idea about using a family earning 125,000 a year and their tax liability under McCain and then Obama with the two numbers flashing. with their McCain tax liabilities (show approximate figures with standard deduction and then the same for Obama showing the tax liability with the same info and then flash just "McCain with the high numbers and then Obama with the lower tax liability. Great idea. Actually a proven winner and it will be easily understood. Anyone send the idea to Obama campaign?
September 18, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really hope someone asks McCain how he's going to clamp down on Wall Street by getting the government out of the way.
September 18, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone else notice that the narrator in the McCain ad sounded a lot like Martin Sheen? I'm sure it's not a coincidence.
September 18, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought maybe it was Sheen's brother, Joe Estevez, who does voiceover work, but I just read somewhere that it's not him.
September 18, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama could post a tax chart if it were done SNL style like a repub and dem pac man eating up dollars to be paid in taxes and watch McCain's pac man continue eating up middle class $s while Obama pac man moves way up the earned income path. The point is say it while making it funny and to the point of demonstrating the tax plans of the candidates.
Would we ever see McCain portrayed as the tasmanian devil or Elmer Fudd?
Just saying there are effective ways of making the point that are funny too.
September 18, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Overall good ad. Just to complain about the Democrats' attack ad guys again. So polite and everything - why even call it "privatization" which is the Republicans phrase and still has positive connotations.
"McCain voted to give Social Security to Wall Street!"
September 18, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
did anyone else feel like in the McCain ad the extended shot of the baby with the words "can your family afford that?" seem to insinuate something more sinister?
September 18, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink