Despite McCain Bounce, Race Remains Tight In Four Key States
A new set of CNN battleground state polls, all conducted in the days after the Republican convention wrapped up, suggests the presidential race remains close in four key states despite John McCain's national bounce:
• In Michigan, which voted for John Kerry by three points in 2004, Barack Obama is ahead 51%-45%.
• In Missouri, which George W. Bush carried by seven points in 2004, John McCain currently has a 50%-45% lead.
• In New Hampshire, which went to Kerry by a very narrow one-point margin, Obama is up 51%-45%.
• In Virginia, which Bush carried by eight points but has also become much bluer in the last four years, McCain has a lead of 50%-46%.
Overall, Dems can be cautiously optimistic about these numbers. McCain has been riding a post-convention bounce, but has only narrow leads in just two of the four state. And the numbers aren't wildly different from the pre-convention surveys from other firms, suggesting that the bounce may not have affected these particular areas all that much.
The polls for Michigan, Missouri and New Hampshire all have a margin of error of ±3%, while the margin in Virginia is ±3.5%
Why am I getting the sense that this election is going to be about Colorado and Florida?
If Obama can flip Florida with the help of Bill and Hillary, then he wins.
September 10, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary has held several events in FL. Bill's heading down there later this month. Obama has been spending a ton of cash on ads in the state. Polls there have actually tightened from where they were a month or two ago, even post-convention. It's like the Palin pick didn't go over that well there. And the older, militantly GOP Cuban voter base is shrinking, replaced by younger Cubans (and non-Cuban Latinos) who are much more Dem friendly. Plus, Obama's campaign is reportedly registering new voters like crazy down there.
Something tells me that the Obama camp's internals show that they have a real good chance of winning the state. And if they do, it's game over for McCain.
September 10, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
OG:
What can Obama do to get the Clintons more involved, can he offer Hillary Secretary of State? Supreme Court? Whatever it takes, he must swallow his pride he needs their help.
Joe
September 10, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somewhat off topic,,,,, our local Obama support group has decided that Palin's voice is either:
Gilda Radner doing the 'news" on SNL
Lily Tomlin doing the telephone lady
- or somewhere in between.
Close or totally off?
September 10, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The story of a Shrinking Map, also known as the 50-State Strategy.
September 10, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
here we go again. Obama is NOT down in MO. McCain was up by 10 or 6 according to other polls so can you stop spinning this as bad news. 5 in MO is good, he has gained ground. sheesh!
September 10, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's down 5 points in MO which is the bellweather state. So goes the nation...
September 10, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do not believe Obama is down 5 in Missouri. Obama will do as well as or better than Claire McCaskill did in her 2006 Senate race, and he will certainly do MUCH better than Kerry did in '04.
How do I know this? Because the campaign has made huge voter registration progress in the St. Louis area, and there are a lot of volunteers (an understatement, really) on the ground in both places.
Anectdotally, I encounter people every single day who either voted for Bush twice, or have never voted at all, and are now voting for Obama. And the undecideds are truly receptive to what volunteers have to say. The atmosphere here is totally different than it was in 2004.
Do the outstaters and evangelicals and uber-rich people love McCain? Probably (although I have only seen one McCain bumper sticker so far, and by this time in 2004, my regular haunts were thick with "W" stickers, ugh, so maybe enthusiasm is down). But frankly, St Louis City and St Louis County can swallow the entire state of Missouri in terms of voter turnout, and I guarantee you that turnout will reach unprecedented levels here.
September 10, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been working as an Obama volunteer for over a year in the bellwether ward in Missouri. The word from the old-timers is that who wins in this ward will win the state.
In 2000 and 2004, Bush won this ward in 2000 and 2004 and Claire McCaskill won it in 2006. My sense right now with extensive phone and door canvassing for some time is that the ward will go to Obama by about the same percentage it went to Claire--around 53%. The major issue with Obama is the experience issue.
Missouri has two major metro areas that go democratic--one around Kansas City and one here in St. Louis. There are a few liberal pockets, like Columbia. The rest of the state normally goes GOP. With the offices that Obama has opened throughout the state in these areas, the turnout should be quite good for Obama.
September 10, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
So many of us do not have enough to put our children through college.
So many of us do not have enough to pay our mortgage.
So many of us do not have enough to pay our bills.
So many of us do not have enough for health care.
So many of us do not have enough for gas.
So many of us do not have enough.
But there is something we have had enough of.
Enough of Bush.
Enough of McCain.
Enough is enough.
--
Kevin B
I'm saying it now: President Barack H. Obama, Jr., 2009 - 2017
September 10, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm saying it now: President Barack H. Obama, Jr., 2009 - 2017
I feel it, too. Keep hope alive, my friend.
September 10, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kevin:
I am with you and hope it's true. The rational choice is Obama, but so many dummies get angry and emotional over fake/shadow issues and vote against their own self interests.
Joe
September 10, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
So the convention bounces were a wash, and the race is about dead even going into the home stretch.
September 10, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ed Koch should help in FL but Obama will lose. I think CO will be a bloody fight. I think NH and Pennsylvania will be way closer than we imagine.
McCain's poor vp selection process: http://tinyurl.com/5zr47h
September 10, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? You don't think Sarah "Jews for Jesus" Palin will fire up some of the older Jewish voters who were Democratic holdouts against Obama?
September 10, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Ras polls in AK, ND, and NM aren't as friendly to Obama. He's losing huge in AK now, which was expected, not a surprise, and no big deal. He'd now down 55-41 in ND - it was tied at 43 when Rasmussen last polled there in July. The worst news is in New Mexico. It's within the margin of error so statistically a tie but McCain now leads there, 49-47. Obama had a 6pt lead last month. Gains come from indies and Latinos, per Ras. New Mexico is kind of a "must-win" for Obama this year. Still, these numbers are bounce affected so it could easily swing back to Obama.
September 10, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but about two weeks ago, Obama was up 12 or so in the state. I think this might be an outlier. I'm pretty sure he's got NM in the bag. Certainly more so than Colorado.
September 10, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aren't all Rass polls likely voters? I would think these swings have a lot more to do with their likely voter model than anything else. Of course, that could just be projection on my part.
September 10, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Mexico is a very difficult state to handicap. The cities (except for Santa Fe) are Red or Grey, and some of the largest rural areas are deep Blue, completely to the reverse of much of the rest of the country.
It will be tricky. Many deep-blue Hispano or Native American communities are veterans and very pro-military in a way that McCain can exploit. For Native American insiders, McCain is a very positive figure--he was the go-to guy on Indian affairs for decades (my da, who despises Candidate McCain, had only good things to say about Senator McCain).
It will come down to turnout by urban Chicanos and young people, and -- as in 2000--the weather.
Gore got away with NM in 2000 because of terrible weather in deep-red Roswell and Carlsbad.
September 10, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I consider the results surprisingly good. Remember, this is the worst stretch for Obama since Wright, and he's still at worst tied. If he can regain his footing and go into the debates with a wee bit of momentum, he stands to be in very good shape as the campaign heads towards its conclusion. If I'm a Republican, I'm asking, "Is that it?"
September 10, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely! McCain has already uncorked Rezko, Wright, and several things (the sex-ed ad) that are deeply erroneous, and historically hideous. By the time they pull out the October surprise ads, viewers will be assuming that there's something wrong with them.
McCain is also making the media angry, much as George HW Bush did in 1988, and W has since 2004. The Media doesn't mind a candidate lying to the public, but McCain is lying to __them__.
September 10, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
i am putting my faith in BO ground game.
September 10, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget your dollars and time.
September 10, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, seriously.
Does Eric do anything else besides regurgitate poll results? Is that seriously all he gets paid to do?
September 10, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has taken his biggest swing yet at Obama: his convention lumped together with his sensationalist VP pick. To some of us recently - me included - it might have felt like the levees were about to break. But guess what folks? He's taken his biggest swing, and he hasn't gotten anywhere. Not saying the race isn't tight, not saying he hasn't seem some movement...but it was tight before the conventions too. We've got a lot of work to do, but the fact remains that John McCain seemed to have it all going for him and he STILL can't move the numbers like he needs to.
So let's get up, dust ourselves off, and go kick his ass.
September 10, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
i thought i was the only one who thought that.
September 10, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very well said. We can do this. AND WE WILL!
September 10, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can I rec your comment? ;-)
September 10, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, og, for the Ras polls. AK and ND -- no biggie. NM, you're right, is a must for us.
It's going to be a fight and no mistake, but I do think we have the edge. I see IA+NH+NM+CO as the clearest path to victory. But I do hope we're also able to hold onto a lead in OH, VA, or FL, so there's a back-up strategy.
September 10, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the same. Those four states are the primary ticket. BTW, a *great* site to figure out electoral total scenarios: http://www.270towin.com/
September 10, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
i thought i was the only one who thought that.
September 10, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, you keep showing your incompetence. Can you please proof that you can analyze a poll, and analyze the internal tabs.
For example, Rasmussen is showing a poll that McWar is ahead in NM for the first time, while Obama was up by 11 or 12 last week...
September 10, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rass had Obama up in NM only 4 on 8/20.
So the 12 so this is a 6 pt swing not 12.
Also--until I see the cross tabs and distribution I won't seriously buy this. Latinos are horrified at the Palin pick. So I can see independents falling for it but this seems suspect to me.
September 10, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry I was referring to the CNN poll...
I don't trust Rasmussen, nor do I trust CNN...
September 10, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love Eric's poll threads. Always entertaining.
You guys are brutal.
September 10, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
the thing with Rass is that he switched the weight in party rep in Sept. so even comparing his August poll to this one is hard. Also--he has the likely voter screen which screens out a lot of Obama voters plus the constant pushing of leaners.
So Rass is problematic. There was a great post at 538 about the in-house effect and as much as people complain about PPP they have one fo the smallest house effects, Rass has a sizable one, not the biggest but important.
Again, I would like to see another poll from NM to figure out where we are.
September 10, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric does a very poor job of analyzing polls, in my humble opinion. No insight, just fright.
September 10, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very simple:
Do you want to run against President Sarah Palin in four years? (Since McCain will die in office, or maybe be pushed to resign.)
September 10, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the same. Those four states are the primary ticket. BTW, a *great* site to figure out electoral total scenarios: http://www.270towin.com/
September 10, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering this is polling taken at McCains high point I think these polls are pretty good for Obama.
September 10, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to think that the Obama campaign has some internal polling that says North Dakota is up for grabs. Even though the latest poll, assuming the specifics are acceptable, might not be great news, there was at least one article where it was stated the campaign was going "full steam ahead" in North Dakota as well as Indiana and Montana.
September 10, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something to keep in mind: It was close -- very, very close -- last time, and this time there is a much better, MUCH better organization and ground game. It's not going to take an awful lot to switch some of those states.
I don't think we will know, with any certainty, until well into the night on 11/4 ...... but there is no reason to give up or even slack off until then, either. I'm going to have faith in Obama's ground game (in which I plan to participate) until polls close on 11/4. THEN I may have a nervous breakdown, of course, but it won't matter!
Just heard some very sober pollsters on Andrea Mitchells show (on TiVo) and they said that in the end, it's going to come back to the basics - jobs, economy, housing, war. And if it does, he's in!! Soldier on.....
September 10, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink