CNN Poll Of Polls: Debate Didn't Change A Thing
So did the first presidential debate actually change anything? Not so, according to CNN -- their poll of polls now shows Barack Obama ahead by 48%-43%, exactly where it was before the debate.
The rub here is that this non-event in the polls effectively helps Obama, as McCain lost a big opportunity to take Obama down a notch in the eyes of the public. This is especially more damaging for McCain in that the national-security debate was supposed to favor him. With the economic crisis accelerating, the next debates could be very good territory for the Dems.
From the pollster's analysis: "The pressure is increasing on McCain to find some way to change the fundamental dynamics of this race. He can't afford to walk away with a tie in the remaining debates."
"From the pollster's analysis: "The pressure is increasing on McCain to find some way to change the fundamental dynamics of this race." Sounds to me like the fundamentals of the race are sound.
September 30, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain feels the pressure to shake up the race at the next debate, this guarantees that he will be even more aggressive and nasty and dismissive which will insure that he continues to slide. Goody!
September 30, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
So be wary of the trapped animal, I guess.
If the race is "unchanged", per CNN, why are the electoral vote estimates so different?
September 30, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. Why do we even care where the national tracking polls stand? They do not measure anything useful. CNN's "poll of polls" is tracking a metric (the popular vote) which does not really matter in the outcome of the election.
September 30, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only is it a metric that's unrelated to the actual results, but it's a stupid compilation of polls.
Meta-analysis for poll results, without a consideration of the quality of the individual polls involved. Never understood the appeal of that.
September 30, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah.
lol
September 30, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, the first debate changed a lot. Obama was seen as strong leader, presidential, the man with the ideas and ready to be the C-in-C.
McCain, while still seen as strong in FP, was also percieved as angry, petulant and devoid of any solutions.
IMO the first debate changed the dymanics dramatically and some of it is irreversible.
September 30, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think so too and
I agree about the tracking polls during the debate.
September 30, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever CNN shows, the tracking polls have shown a big move towards Obama in the past week as have many state polls. When the Republican is 5-10 down in PA and fighting to keep it even in NC, Virginia and INdiana, you know he's in trouble.
September 30, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also this poll doesn't gauge how strongly folks support one candidate or the other. It could have strengthened or weakened support without showing in the numbers.
September 30, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice spin, Eric...
Trouble is that in the midst of this economic whirlwind, it's hard to separate out the effects of the debate from the rest of the hurricane.
Lemme rummage around in my bag o' tricks... Oh yeah, here it is...
THIS IS...
September 30, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
September 30, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS...
September 30, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
September 30, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
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September 30, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS FOR...
September 30, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN!!!!
September 30, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
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September 30, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
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Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. Nam liber tempor cum soluta nobis eleifend option congue nihil imperdiet doming id quod mazim placerat facer possim assum.
September 30, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
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Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. Nam liber tempor cum soluta nobis eleifend option congue nihil imperdiet doming id quod mazim placerat facer possim assum.
September 30, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. Nam liber tempor cum soluta nobis eleifend option congue nihil imperdiet doming id quod mazim placerat facer possim assum.
September 30, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
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September 30, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alright. I'm not a fan of banning folks from internet boards ( I'm a free speech kinda guy) but YOU, Sir, need to get laid and the TPM folks ought to drop you like a hot potatoe.
September 30, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I reported him to the powers that be, and received an acknowledgement.
The moderators should delete his 'comments' above....
October 1, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only polls that have come out post debate have been the tracking polls, right? I don't believe they are comparing apples to apples. But it's CNN, so what are you going to do.
September 30, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
As it has been said on other treads today, we Democrats need to be cautious and not lower the expectations of the republican candidates in these debates. As with the economic markets right now, the ups and downs are not based on reality but rather on expectations.
September 30, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, darlin - just exactly how do we do that - avoid lowering expectations?
September 30, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually think CNN is missing the boat. The debate helped Obama consolidate his move up, and helped confirm what a lot of people were thinking about McCain. It was part of a stretch of events, rather than a stand alone ite,.
John
September 30, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN is a joke and has been for a long time. They always try and push the horse race and salivate over Fox's viewship numbers. Wolf Blitzer should be a commentator for Table Tennis.
September 30, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric:
I hate to point this out, but the CNN 'Poll of Polls' had McCain within 3 points just 9 days ago.......
And I note that the 'Poll of Polls' has been removed form the CNN Election Central site. Gee - I wonder why?
Analysis is one thing - but spin is an ugly thing.
September 30, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh. Took me multiple clicks to even get to the page that has the 9/29 results, read the fine print, and thought, WTF?
They mixed three polls from before the debate with two from after the debate and conclude the debate had no effect?
This isn't spin: this is sheer hackery.
September 30, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hackery. Them's lies we can believe in!
September 30, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look for McCain to suspend his campaign, to assist Gov. Palin, who will be spirited back to Alaska Wednesday night to push back the Russian aggression, after navy seals are spotted canoeing across the Behring straight, wearing Dr. Zhivago hats.
September 30, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
love that picture that Olbermann uses of Palin where she looks cross-eyed. I just love that.
September 30, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
WRONG - The main 4 polls are +7 as of today leaving out that outlier BAttleground
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/PoliticalbaseBlog/~3/407450666/&blogId=4444
September 30, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course the debate didn't change a thing. It was terrible! A huge snore.
September 30, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oddly enough, I'm almost never bored when Obama speaks.
September 30, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
But I don't think it showed Obama in his best light. For that, however, I blame Jim Lehrer.
September 30, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't give any credence to what CNN claims about the debate not having changed anything, because they are dead wrong. The post debate polls showed that a lot more people now felt that Obama was qualified to do the job, than before the debate.
The debate also caused the polls in many of the battleground states to start trending toward Obama.
This election is not about national popularity polls, which do not count on election day. It is a state by state battle, and the debate performance enhanced Senator Obama's prospects in many of the key states.
CNN is weighting apples in an orange market.
September 30, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forget the self serving CNN site, got to
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com.
This is all about electoral votes....not the daily beauty contest
September 30, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric writes-"This is especially more damaging for McCain in that the national-security debate was supposed to favor him."
Correct me if I am wrong but did they not spend a good part of the debate on the Economy? Should not Oilbama, who voted for the Bush Cheney Energy Bill, be winning in a landslide now that the economy is tanking like a rock?
September 30, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Since less than 50% of the debate was spent on the area where Obama is strongest, he should be up by at least a thousandy percent right now. What's wrong with him?
September 30, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too low! He should be up eleventy hundred percent.
September 30, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
FoeFoo thinks he should be up by twelvehundreddy percent.
September 30, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know I was tempted to go to twelvish hundreddy, but then I realized that we could do this forever.
LOLOL!!!!
September 30, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dumb Bill,
You are never right, so why should we have to keep on correcting you. Now just STFU you habitually wrong tool of ignorance.
September 30, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well if the debate changed nothing according to the poll.
And, there is a 2% marin of error.
They are still only 1% point apart.
In an election where the Dems are supposed to have a huge, huge advantage.
Wonder why?
September 30, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well if the debate changed nothing according to the poll.
And, there is a 2% margin of error.
They are still only 1% point apart.
In an election where the Dems are supposed to have a huge, huge advantage.
Wonder why?
September 30, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
fogu:
Do math much?
If there is a 2% MOE, then Obama is ahead by 9 points - not 5. (I can be optimistic too!)
Hang in there, though.
September 30, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
48-43=5
Aww wait a minute, you wuz jus funnin wid me.
September 30, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stupid people say stupid things.
2% margin of error means 50-46 vs 45-41.
He can be winning by as little as 46-45 or as much as 50-41.
We are talking strictly about sampling variation here and and not the accuracy of a particular poll.
October 1, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, nothing really changed POLL-wise. But the issue is this: it's crunch time. Every day McCain doesn't make inroads on Obama's lead is a day wasted for him, and solidifies Obama's position. Anyone who frequents FiveThirtyEight.com knows that one of the reasons Obama's win percentage is so high right now is that the election is only five weeks (a little less) away. What this means is that every day that Obama's lead expands, or even stays consistent, equals a statistical drop in McCain's probability of winning the election.
Of course, I wouldn't expect CNN to go so in-depth in their analysis.
September 30, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's an excellent comment. That's the biggest factor now - every day brings the election much closer and McLame's chances much further.
Thanks for that -
September 30, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Conversely, every day Obama doesn't pull away to an insurmountable lead means he is still easily beatable.
September 30, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
What precisely would an "insurmountable lead" be by your definition? Is Obama beatable? Sure. But statistically, it's becoming near impossible for McCain to make any real inroads in Obama's lead.
Let's put it this way: it took McCain approximately 60 days over the summer with an onslaught of negative advertisements in order to erode Obama's lead to 1-point before the Democratic Convention. We currently have 35 days until the election. Given the current economic climate, and the fact that, as I've stated, Obama's lead continues to expand or stay consistent, what do you think the probability is that McCain will be able to diminish Obama's lead as he did over the summer?
September 30, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's only 1%. You feel comfortable with that "lead"?
Face it, it is still a dead heat, tied. And after all this time, all the attacks, and the supposed Dem advantage.
It is still tied which means either one can win at this point.
September 30, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
What the hell are you talking about? Haha! You're living in a fantasy land. Obama only has a 1% lead? Sure. And McCain is an honest and respectable politician. But you do know that 83% of all statistics are made up, right? Back up your source, buddy.
Anyway... By every single available metric, Obama is beating McCain by pretty large margins. On the electoral vote count, on the popular vote count, based on polling and surveys; on the statistical probability that Obama will win, he's beating McCain by huge margins, as we can see with things like Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets. And recently, Intrade has experienced some tampering ( http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html ), so it wouldn't surprise me if Obama's lead there was even higher.
RCP gives Obama a national lead of 5.1 over McCain (hardly 1%). FiveThirtyEight gives Obama an 82.8% chance of winning the election. As I said, Intrade is giving Obama a 61% chance of winning. Pollster.com gives Obama an average of 48.8%, a lead of 5.2% (hardly 1%). Huh.
Bring some evidence next time, ok? You make this way too easy.
September 30, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
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Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. Nam liber tempor cum soluta nobis eleifend option congue nihil imperdiet doming id quod mazim placerat facer possim assum.
Posted by fogu2
September 30, 2008 6:25 PM
September 30, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
But natch the MSM wants a close horse race. They'll manufacture one - if necessary.
September 30, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and that's ok, too.
Apathy has no chance to sneak in. Although I must say, apathy and Barack Obama do not compute at all. Not at all.
September 30, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and in case anyone was wondering about that Battleground poll... Read the following:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html
To quote Nate Silver,
Battleground should, based on this, be completely discounted. I understand that different polls use different methodology. But this is simply ridiculous, and has nothing to do with a methodological choice to attempt to render more accurate results. It's simply bollocks.
September 30, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for explaining just exactly why I hate polls, ChronoSpark.
I can't tell those that are fundamentally dishonest from those that aren't without going into it in depth like you have, and since it's all numbers I'm not likely to.
Most law students are looking for a major that doesn't require math.
No math in law school. Just a gazillion words -
September 30, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given the fact that I'm a complete idiot for math, it surprises me that I take such an interest in polls. Of course, polls deal so much with statistics and probability, and I love that stuff, soo...
As for ARG, which has consistently put McCain ahead in key swing states,
a) They have a Republican lean, and
b) Even though McCain is shown ahead, the trending is the same, with Obama slowly gaining ground on McCain.
September 30, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh Fogu! You make me titter. If Obama wins this election by 7 percentage points, then it's a landslide. And frankly the reliable polls are showing him in the 6,7,8 point range every day.
Start repeating it now... PRESIDENT BARACK OABAM. Over and over and over until November. I would hate for your head to explode when it happens.
And trust me! It's going to happen.
Obama/Biden '08, '12
September 30, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
just read this on a uk paper about the election talking with Obama camp
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3089433/Barack-Obamas-top-team-believes-he-can-win-White-House-by-a-landslide.html
says it all for me the youth vote is being big time underestimated and this could be a land slide
September 30, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course he can walk away without winning the debates, he's a gambler and has a lot of tricks up his sleeve. He'll probably suspend his campaign again or maybe he'll ask Sarah Palin to drop out to save herself from getting the hatchet.
The guy's going to suprise you: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/toles_main.html?name=Toles&date=09302008&type=c?hpid=opinionsbox1
September 30, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I found this chart on 538.com very helpful. It ranks the quality of the various polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
Survey USA appears to be the best of those we see a lot, followed by Rasmussen, Research 2000, Mason Dixon and Qunnipiac, Insider Advantage.
This guys website is fantastic for cutting through the crap
October 1, 2008 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really? Looking at Pollster the trend has been up.
October 1, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink