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Chasing The News Cycle Versus Building A Real Case

With the debate about to start, it's worth reading former Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson's interesting post diagnosing the McCain campaign's problems.

Wolfson argues that McCain's campaign suspension shows that McCain has been reduced to chasing momentary news-cycle victories, rather than building an effective long term case. Wolfson notes that even if McCain won a short-term victory with the suspension stunt (which itself is debatable), McCain ended up "boxed in by his pledge."

"The Obama campaign gets up every day and asks themselves how they can make the case for change vs more of the same, just as they did yesterday, and they will do tomorrow," Wolfson argues. "The McCain campaign wakes up and figures out how to try to win the day."

Our take: However bad the possibility might have looked that McCain would have to choose between not showing at the debate and breaking his pledge, the McCain team had no choice but to take the suspension gamble.

The McCain campaign's macro-message had primarily been about a contrast of biography and character: McCain's war heroism renders him more deserving of, and more prepared for, the presidency than Obama, with his inexperience, preening self-regard, and untested character.

But then the economic crisis hit, and it jolted the electorate into a sharp focus on the issues and on the two mens' competing agendas.

McCain made an aggressive bid for the populist mantle. But the problem for McCain was that Obama had been talking about the economy for months and months. McCain basically had had to be dragged into admitting that there was a problem and into promising action. So polls showed Obama continuing to gain.

McCain needed a dramatic gesture to jar the electorate into seeing him as the real man of action on the economy. So he opted for the ultimate (pseudo) sacrifice: He's give up his entire campaign to fix it.

The ultimate irony is that McCain's campaign suspension, too, was still all about character, about biography, about story-telling. It was a tale of a former soldier again (supposedly) making a big sacrifice for his country and for the greater good. Tellingly, McCain even referred to his service in discussing his suspension.

But if current polls are to be believed, story-telling just isn't enough. Yesterday's New York Times poll found that far more people think Obama is the one that's telling them what he'll do as president. Whatever action McCain is promising, Obama promised it first -- with specificity. McCain early on gambled on experience over change -- on biography and character over a concrete change agenda -- and now he's paying the price.

People want to know what these two men would actually do as president, and choose between them on that basis. And on that score, as Wolfson says, the one building the case more effectively -- for quite some time now -- has been Obama.


72 Comments

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as much as iam not feeling howard wolfson but i do agree wit him on this a 100%,iam so happy that mccukoo showed up at the debate i want his temper flair up real bad tonite,and i want barack tell him he needs to go back to studying his geography!!!

Wolfson ought to know because he was schooled in this in the primaries. After all, Obama had a consistent message and long-term strategy from day one and Hillary was the one lurching from message to message and choosing tactics over strategy -- albeit less hysterically than McShame. And we all know how that turned out.

Consistent messages win elections.

Bush: Terrorism=bad
Clinton: It's the economy stupid!
Nixon: Amnesty, acid, abortion
Obama: Change

Damn, no wonder Nixon won, promising acid and amnesty.

Now *that* is a candidate I can get behind.

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Promises, promises.

I think Nixon was promising to protect the little old ladies who were convinced for several years there that hippies were going to put acid in the town water supply.

I used to tell little old ladies I knew who would say that that it was really foolish to think for one minute someone would waste all their acid turning on an entire town of strangers.

i think after tonite debate lets get ready to hear more about rev.wright,tony rezko,bill ayers,barack is a muslim even though i seen him ate pork bacon on a couple of occassion,hes an elitist,i would'nt b surprise which they probably is already do u want a black man running the white house?and believe me i guarantee its gonna happen bkuz hes gonna beat tha living shit out of mccain tonite!!!!!OBAMA/BIDEN 08!!!!

Can we please lower the expections, a little bit. McCain is not going to roll over and die. He has been elected to the Senate 4 times; he knows how to debate.

But you're assuming that McCain has ever had to run a serious contest before.

Help me out here folks: is that true? Or am I correct in assuming that McCain has essentially had a series of cake-walk elections for his Senate seat?

Some snippets from Wikipedia entry:

1. Perhaps the earliest version of playing the POW card: in his first congressional race, answering charges that he was a 'carpetbagger':
"Listen, pal. I spent 22 years in the Navy. My father was in the Navy. My grandfather was in the Navy. We in the military service tend to move a lot. We have to live in all parts of the country, all parts of the world. I wish I could have had the luxury, like you, of growing up and living and spending my entire life in a nice place like the First District of Arizona, but I was doing other things. As a matter of fact, when I think about it now, the place I lived longest in my life was Hanoi."[59][72]

2. "With the assistance of local political endorsements, his Washington connections, as well as money that his wife lent to his campaign,[60] McCain won a highly contested primary election.[59] He then easily won the general election in the heavily Republican district.[59]

In 1983, McCain was elected to lead the incoming group of Republican representatives.[59"

McCain's Senate career began in January 1987, after he defeated his Democratic opponent, former state legislator Richard Kimball, by 20 percentage points in the 1986 election.[60][79] McCain succeeded longtime American conservative icon and Arizona fixture Barry Goldwater upon the latter's retirement as United States Senator from Arizona.[79]

Therefore, I conclude that John McCain has simply NEVER had to run a serious campaign before (with the exception of the primary campaign where he had his ass handed to him by GW).

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Sounds like someone who knows what it's like to be stuck in a permanently reactive campaign. Clinton only controlled the campaign narrative after Obama had mathematically sealed the deal.

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Sounds like someone who knows what it's like to be stuck in a permanently reactive campaign.

And the cycles, they go round and round,
The painted phonies go up and down.
He's captive on the Carousel of Time.
He can't return, he can only look
Behind from where he came,
And go round and round in the Circle Game.

As George Will said, McCain has found his inner Williams Jennings Bryant; he's become a populist all of a sudden. And the problem with that is a populist engages in pandering to the whims of voters. And pandering is not a quality of a good leadership.

Say what you will about Wolfson (personally, since he told O'Reilly "your days of telling us what to do are over" I've had a soft spot for him), but he NAILED this analysis.

McCain's campaign is so busy trying to win the spin war instead of building a candidate with a consistent message that their campaign is a mess.

Wolfson knows better than anyone that Obama and his team are disciplined, stay on message and doesn't react to the nonsense the media floats, and this leaves Obama's opponent's flailing.

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Interesting that Wolfson thinks McCain won the news cycle on Wednesday. I wonder by what standard? Is it just about who drives the narrative? Because from the cheap seats it looked like McCain might have driven the narrative right off a cliff.

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Another reason McCain had to do the suspension - the Lobbyist story was about to eat his campaign whole.

The Rick Davis Lie turned out to be much more egregious than it first looked - not only did he not sever from his company, he was still making money in exchange for access to McCain in the event he wins the election.

Remember, just before the whole Buyout fury broke, McCain was on the trail but Davis was hiding. They feared that story was going to get traction, and short of injuring himself or someone else, the only thing that would have distracted the media was a bigger story.

Voila! Suspended campaign. And it worked, at least to this point.

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The ultimate irony is that McCain's campaign suspension, too, was still all about character, about biography, about story-telling. It was a tale of a former soldier again (supposedly) making a big sacrifice for his country and for the greater good. Tellingly, McCain even referred to his service in discussing his suspension.

But if current polls are to be believed, story-telling just isn't enough.

Peggy Noonan said this in her open mic comments she subsequently tried to deny, at least 3 weeks ago. She said something along the lines of:

It's bullshit political narrative and every time the Republicans try to do that they lose because they aren't comfortable there (which is bullshit, but ok - it is still Peggy Nooners.)

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It's interesting that the same kind of short term thinking, rather than a long term agenda, is what got us into this current financial mess. So mcCain's campaign is nothing more than the failed strategies of trying to squeeze profits in the short run. Looks to me like we're seeing a sea change here. And I hope it endures.

It didn't work for Wall Street. And it's not working for mcCain either.

Thanks for this excellent analysis piece!

The suspension was probably a Rick Davis idea to save his own ass as the NYT and Newsweek were digging hot on the story of him still collecting a paycheck from Fannie Mae up into last month. The McCain Camp initially defended this by saying that Davis wasn't a part of Davis Monafort anymore and that the Fannie money was going there, however upton further digging Newsweek found that during the Primaries the McCain Camp was paying Davis through Davis Monafort - sending cheques there rather than sending him a check personally. So of course the next question would have been "Why was the campaign sending payments for Davis' services to Davis Monafort if Davis no longer had anything to do with them?" And this was over 4-5 payments, so it's not like they can say their billing department made a mistake. This matter proved that Davis was still an active partner of Davis Monafort and since Davis Monafort was paid by Fannie Mae $15K/month up until last month, that Davis essentially worked for Fannie. Also since he professed he didn't work for Fannie, why was Fannie sending Davis Monafort monthly checks for $15K? Obviously they were buying access to McCain.

And sadly that story was buried because of the "suspension stunt"

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Jonze,

Agreed. See my post upthread.

The Davis story would have sunk the campaign completely. It was lies on top of lies - but not abstract lies. Easy to digest, pretty much a cut-and-dried situation. He said he cut his ties with the company and wasn't making money. Easily provable lies.

It would have been perfect fodder for the media, who were itching to kick Davis' ass after the war he tried to wage on them over the last couple of weeks.

I caught your upthread post, I'm just a slow as hell typer I guess. I wonder if there is anyway the Obama Camp could get that back on the forefront again. Probably not unless he brings it up in a debate, because this debate will dominate the coverage until the financial deal is agreed to and then that will carry the news until the next set of debates.

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As long as Davis still works for the campaign, it'll keep, IMO.

Even after the Buyout Frenzy dies down, people will still be very concerned - maybe even more concerned - over lobbyists screwing with their money.

The Davis story is what the dead-tree guys used to call an 'evergreen.' :)

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Yes, exactly.

When NYT's first Rick Davis story hit, Steve StupidSchmidt blunted it by railing on the NYT.  It helped contain the damage in that day's news cycle.

When NYT's second Rick Davis story hit the next day -- with a much more damaging tale -- something even more desperate was in order.

This matter proved that Davis was still an active partner of Davis Monafort...

Josh Marshall spent a lot of column-inches showing that Davis was still active in his firm's business.  But I don't get why that should make a hill o' beans of difference.  He owns a big stake in the firm.  So whether or not he is/was still active, he's still stands to profit handsomely from all that lobbying money.

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And I think y'all give McLame way way too much credit - I don't think he suspended his campaign to change momentum - I think he had a mini-breakdown. Because why did he bail on Letterman if he is trying to change momentum? It doesn't follow.

There's no plan - it is day by day, which belies the claim that McLame shut down because he had to to change the momentum.

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Because why did he bail on Letterman...

That's still a deep mystery for me.  A really stupid move.  Why on earth did he think it would work?

The only thing I can think of is he was worried that Letterman might ask a question or two that he didn't want to answer.  Maybe a Sarah Palin or Rick Davis question.  Or a fundamentally-strong-economy question.

Still, facing those questions and dancing around them would have been much better than pulling the plug.

What this campaign has done is made it evident how each of these two candidates will govern.

On one hand, you have an administration that governs with a coherent philosophy that looks at the best long-term interests of the country.

On the other hand, you have an administration that governs with a muddled, inconsistent strategy aimed at the next election cycle.

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Not to mention mismanaging funds and message and all kinds of campaign day to day. McLame has contradicted himself, put himself into paradox traps and tried on alternate Thursdays to run as not only a Democrat, but as Obama. He campaign is meaningless, as far as I can tell.

I agree and maybe more revealing is the fact that McCain's history is riddled with avoidable crisis that he responds well too.

I would rather have someone in the White House that just avoids the crisis.

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He campaign shoulda been his campaign

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I'll buy the Davis explanation. I don't buy McLame working out just what the advantage to suspending his campaign would be. He doesn't think that far ahead.

Two words: Sarah Palin

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The problem for Republicans is that Americans are playing close attention for once. They aren't going to put up with being played for fools on their financial securty and the Palin choice is increasingly being seen for the unserious choice that it was. Americans aren't amused.

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Very nice comment and I co-sign it.

The Story-telling concept is a good one and a very strong part of what drives voters. We know McCain was not going to be leading on the issues so, as Noonan pointed out, it was going to be about his story. Look at the Convention and "Maverick", "POW"...plenty of smarter folks than I said that was his only chance.

Problem is, now he's really starting to look "unstable" in his decision making and *that* reality trumps the story.

my .02

God damn Lieberman spouting all kind of bullshit on MSNBC about how McCain saved the day by bringing the house repugs into the bailout talks --- SOB MUST BE PUNISHED!!!

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I think he should be punished by taking Palin's place on the McLame ticket.

He will be as long as Obama is elected in November. Otherwise he'll get whatever cabinet position he wants probably Sec. Of State.

If Obama wins he'll serve out his senate term marginalized as the Dems will boot him and the Republicans will have used him up and have no further use for him either.

From what we have witnessed this week is quite easy to see which candidate is telling the voters what they would do if elected POTUS.

Obama has been steady and calm in his reaction to the crisis. He is measured in his response because he is not actively involved in the negoiations going on at the Capitol. Let the experts hammer out a solution, after which he reviewed and discussed.

McCain had to be drawn into the discussion. At first, his remarks concerning the financial crisis were contrary to what was being reported. There seemed to be quite a disconnect with what he thought he was saying to what people understood him to be saying. Instead of a steady hand at the helm of a ocean liner, it was more like the quick, jerking reactions of a race car driver on a course with multiple tight turns. At the end of the week, we found our elected representatives at the Capital in abject pandemonium after he waltzed in and purposefully disrupted the delicate bipartisan negotiations crafted by representatives and senators who left their party hats outside so not to let party affiliation influence the proceedings.

As Abraham Lincoln once said, it is one thing to be silent and thought a fool than it is to speak up and remove all doubt.

This week I learned who the fool was.

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"...far more people think Obama is the one that's telling them what he'll do as president."

Greg, he's the one WHO's telling them! being, you know, a person and all.

I think people are missing something here. Obama has done with the current economic crisis what he did with Hillary to great effect. He acted reasonably. He did not play politics. Long time politicians clearly do not know how to react and they end up overreacting and looking like fools.

In this case, Obama sent McCain a message at 8:30 in the morning stating they should get together and create a statement together to increase public confidence. In any world but politics, this would have been greeted with enthusiasm. But it sent McCain into a tizzy. They met for hours, over-thought what was happening and came up with the dumbest plan I've ever seen in presidential politics. Now McCain looks like an idiot.

All because Obama was acting like a thoughtful human being, with no motives but the greater good. The inside the beltway crowd doesn't know what to do with that kind of olive branch and they lose it.

I've been watching since the primaries began and it never ceases to amaze me.

http://stopallmonsters.blogspot.com/

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I agree with you - I don't think it's missed exactly, maybe stated a little differently here and there.

But yes, Greg posted on his comment about what happened in the White House meeting that Obama wouldn't take any shots at McLame, even when the reporter gave him an opening. And it was the right way to handle it - because it is consistent with his overall theme - which isn't change, it's unity. Bringing the country together and overcoming the kind of partisanship that keeps things from getting done. Which interestingly enough is exactly what McLame ended up doing. He came in, became an uber partisan with the holdout conservative Repugs and fucked the process up.

Sorry for changing the subject but I almost jumped through the TV set to strangle the A-ho!

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I agree. If there ever was a week when it was an advantage to look more like an accountant than a cowboy, this might be the week.

Lettuce not get ahead of ourselves with these debates here. I don't know about y'all, but I saw The Chimp get his rectum smoked in several debates in '00 &'04. Yet, to listen to the MSM, "Governor Bush has shown a tremendous grasp of the issues".....Hopefully, this media thing is behind us, but I ain't convinced myself.....

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There aren't just two kinds of people in the world - that's silly. But there are two kinds of commenters on boards - and one of them carries around big icy pails of cold water to throw on any enthusiasm or hopefulness that dares to arise on the board.

The other likes to party.

Icy pails of lettuce?

Why, just think of all the Old-School Ferraro/Morris/Ikes "democrats" and how their vulturing over Obama's demise must now, regrettably, come to an End.

I'm sorry, was that too much cold water?

MSNBC is reporting Teddy has been taken to the hospital, no details.

On Cape Cod. Wouldn't he be going to Boston if it were really bad? Maybe he's heading there...?

Damn.

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So, is McSame gonna bolt the debate and fly back to DC to show support for Ted Kennedy?

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That was my first thought and I almost posted: There goes the debate again, when this came up.


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OT: Check the video on the home page - Nicole Wallace is a little, umm, testy. And David Schuster makes an ass of her.

Getting brutal out there...

Shuster didn't push back hard enough, because McCain wanted to postpone the debate, so how does that show that he feels the debates are most important? He let her get away with spin...

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I just love how she tried to change what McCain said and made him play the tape.

The smug just completely evaporated from her fake-ass face there for a second.

Fox News also reporting on Senator Kennedy have been taken to hospital by Hyannis Port fire dept.

I do not like the sound of this. I have been hoping that Ted would make it to see Senator Obama being sworn in as President.


There have been some reports, during the past week or so, that Ted was slipping fast.

Keep him in your thoughts.


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,429104,00.html

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O hell. I hadn't seen any reports; I didn't know he wasn't doing well.


Slipping fast? What are you smoking?

He just did a press conference on Tuesday with the President of Chile in Hyannis!

So you think he has just been rushed to the hospital by the fire dept because he wanted a change of scenery. Put down the crack pipe moron, and read the following.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/sneed/1172891,CST-NWS-SNEED19.article#

From exactly a week ago, in The Chicago Sun Times.

Kennedy 'very ill'
A Kennedy update . . .

September 19, 2008

BY MICHAEL SNEED Sun-Times Columnist

Sneed hears the health of U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy, whose bravura in the face of a cancerous brain tumor resulted in a surprise appearance and speech at the Democratic National Convention, is sadly going downhill.

• • Backshot: "He gave every ounce of courage to attend that convention, where an attack of kidney stones caused him to be delivered by ambulance," said a source.
» Click to enlarge image
Michael Sneed

• • Update: "And although he still goes sailing every day at 2 p.m., he is getting weaker and weaker. He's a very ill man. It's been said he could have three weeks, three months or three years . . . but I wouldn't bet three years."

• • Upshot: Although Kennedy does not plan to return to the Senate this fall, his family and staff are now pulling together his archives and papers, which will reportedly be housed in a building near the John F. Kennedy Library and Museum in Boston.

You trust Fox?

What the hell is going on tonight. Are you also taking stupid pills. It has being confirmed by the fire dept, and several media sources.


http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/kennedy_taken_to_hospital.php

I do believe Jim Lehrer was not a happy camper when McCain suspended his campaign and wanted to pull out of the debate. He has also stated just because the first debate is about foreign policy doesn't means the financial crisis isn't off the table.

I'm burning the midnite oil here just to watch the fireworks going off in the western sky as the sun rises to the east. It'll be a morning to remember!

Especially since the $10B a month has something to do with the financial crisis...

Not to change the subject but I still can't get over that McCain is still getting a pass regarding the suspension THAT NEVER HAPPENED. His interviews never stopped, his campaign workers around the country never stopped, his TV ads never stopped. He never suspended a damn thing. I've been off work this week and spending too much time on-line, following TV news reports etc. and every deluded person who is still defending McCain is doing so using that lame he is putting country above politics line when he did no such thing. He showed up in DC 22 hours after declaring how urgent it was he get back there then sat in the meeting he had Bush call for 40 minutes saying nothing. After declaring he wasn't going to the debate unless the crisis was resolved he turns around and decides he's going to the debate anyway and apparently that's just hunky dory with all those idiots defending him even though it shoots their defense all to hell.
Unbelievable. And to think nearly half the people in this country still...You just want to bang your head against the wall.

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... his TV ads never stopped.

There have been reliable reports that his team was trying to pull back many of the ads, at least until Saturday.

Just enough to give him a bit of plausible deniability.

WTF is Wolf-foxappeaser-son talking about? He is an idiot. How did McLame win the day's news cycle by suspending his campaign.

McLame is instable mentally and it's showing. He's making these haste and thoughtless decision because, as O' said, McLame is panicking.

Nothing to do with winning the newscycle.

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I co-sign this 100%. That's what I tried to say but I think you get it across much better.

Sorry to hear about Ted Kennedy. My sister had cancer that metastisized to her brain and there really wasn't anything to be done at that point but palliative care. She died barely 3 months after the cancer reached her brain. I know his case is different but still, cancer growing inside an enclosed space like your skull is a bitch. It just becomes a race to shrink the tumor before it does too much damage.

Look, all McCain did is go all in with 7 2 unsuited. That was his gamble. Now they are in retrograde.

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As has been pointed out elsewhere, McSame loves craps, and he does stand a (slim) chance it that's the game.

But Obama is an experienced poker player.  McSame will be hanging out in the Losers' Lounge pretty soon.

Completely off-topic, but

Come on, you Gunners!

Completely off-topic, but

Come on, you Gunners!

Asshole Wolfson actually stumbled into the truth.

The suspension makes him look unstable, erratic, weak, stupid, and childish.

So, yes, it was a win.

I tend to think this is being viewed wrong. Notice, McCain rushes to Washington to "help" and suspends his campaign, immediately after Rick Davis is revealed to be receiving $15,000 monthly from a failing financial institution. The Davis news has fallen completely off the radar, and the less-than-bright folks who form McCain's base are screeching that cancelling the debate was the right thing to do, since - as the idiots say - they ought to be working rather than campaigning anyhow.

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