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CBS/NYT Poll: Obama Jumps Back To Five-Point Lead

It looks like the McCain bounce is officially over.

Here are the numbers from new CBS/New York Times poll: Among registered voters, Obama leads 48%-43%, with a margin of error of ±3%. Among likely voters, Obama is ahead 49%-44%. Last week, McCain's post-convention helped him get a 46%-44% lead among registered voters -- but not anymore.

The economy seems to have really damaged McCain. Sixty-one percent of respondent say the economy is getting worse, and they're going for Obama by a 62%-29% margin. On top of that, 46% of respondent say John McCain would be likely to continue George W. Bush's policies.

This is also consistent with the movement of the daily tracking polls, which on average have shown Obama moving into a narrow lead after previously trailing by a few points.


103 Comments

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Obama clings to his momentum!

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McSame's head about to explode... ... ... POW!

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By McSame, in infer that you mean McHoover.

"McSame's head about to explode... ... ... POW!"

McBush literally looks like that to me. I think it's just a matter of time before he has a public moment like the ending of that movie "The Dead Zone."

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

The madness will soon be over. Here's hoping the Bushies don't manufacture a crisis overseas.

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Let's hope it's over for good.

I'd sooner see the return of polyester leisure suits.
~

You can't make this stuff up -

From their joint townhall appearance in Grand Rapids MI:

Asked for "specific skills" she could cite to rebut critics who question her grasp of international affairs, she replied, "I am prepared."

"I have that confidence. I have that readiness," Palin said. "And if you want specifics with specific policies or countries, you can go ahead and ask me. You can play 'stump the candidate' if you want to. But we are ready to serve."

GOP presidential nominee John McCain stepped in, pointing out that as governor of a state that is oil and gas plentiful, Palin was familiar with energy. She knows it to be "one of our great national security challenges," he said.

He also cited her nearly two years as commander of Alaska's National Guard. "I believe she is absolutely, totally qualified to address every challenge as the next vice president of the United States," McCain said.

Dammit - it's all supposed to be a quote.

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Oh, boy... this is really convincing! Yup... she's pro.... prop..pro-position...proposition-ista!

They McCain camp clearly believes that
'saying it will make it so'. I wonder if they are using prayer or magic beans and making wishes that will make these lies become the truth. Yup, if we tell you 'we know how to do it, well, ya know, you can take our word for that' it's like their mouths are moving saying these things but we I really here is 'I am clueless but I will keep up the charade.'

No matter how many times you tell a lie it will never 'be' the truth.

See, for a lot of Americans, magic beans and repetition repetition repetition is all you need to convince them.

Fuckin' Aye *better* play "stump the candidate". She hasn't been asked on single off the cuff, unguarded question about foreign affairs since she has been the nominee. I an *still* livid over this and probably always will be.

I'm with Sullivan on this (as well as most of TPM I'm sure). The fact that she has not had a real press conference yet and not had to field real, substantive questions on, well, fucking ANYTHING, is the saddest commentary on where America is that I can think of.

Sorry for the rant...

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Um, no apology necessary...

ABSOLUTELY no apology necessary, Brain. We're with you.

Hey, OK, let's play "stump the candidate" (guess Karl suggested that one to you - like "blame game")...

Where's Spain?

Oops, sorry. I meant, Where's Spain, bitch?

Sixty-five percent of registered voters say Obama would bring real change, while just 37 percent say the same of McCain. Nearly 60 percent of voters say McCain would not bring change.

That there is some good news.

McCain just brought back Phil Nation of Whiners Gramm. Some change. Maybe he can resurrect Herbert Hoover.

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My money is still on Caligula!

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McCain just brought back Phil Nation of Whiners Gramm.

I've been to Whiners Gramm, and I can tell ya, it's a real shithole.

The whole Nation family is a stinkin' bunch of white trailer trash.  And Phil sits on on the porch in a tank-top smokin' a seegar with his shotgun at the ready.  Better not call him bitter, you'll get your head blowed off!

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McHoover

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my friends, i knew herbert hoover, and i am no herbert hoover.

But, but, but...
The fundamentals of McCain's campaign are strong.

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Yeah... us... Fundamentals that we are!

These craven miscreants will stop at nothing to besmirch themselves, their campaign, and our nation itself in their unbridled, unethical, and immoral pursuit of power!

I have had it!

And don’t call me a Fundamental either!

I am a person!

I reject and denounce being called a Fundamental.

I call on the mcShame campaign to apologize to Americans for calling them Fundamentals.

Add your voice here:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/i-denounce-and-reject-being-ca.php

TheraP - Please calm down. Think of all the benefits of being a Fundamental. You start out with FUN and end up a MENTAL!!
Always look on the bright side ....

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... of life!

Life's a piece o' shit
When ya look at it...

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I definitely recommend this Poll!!!

Damn. That only puts their RCP average at a tie. I thought it would swing back to Obama.

Oh well, that's better than having to see McCain's name up there.

Poll question:

Did McCain choose Palin because she's well-qualified to be VP, or to win the election:

Well-qualified: 17%, Win the election 75%

Did Obama choose Biden because he's well-qualified to be VP, or to win the election:

Well-qualified: 57%, Win the election 31%


http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20080918_POLL.pdf

The remaining 8% just thought McCain is a dumbass.

That would be a brilliant answer option for a presidential approval rating poll.

"When you think of the job that George Bush has done as President, do you approve, disapprove, or do you just think he's a dumb-ass?"

Cash money says that a plurality would choose dumb-ass.

If McCain keeps talking about how he's going to take on the "ole boys network" and "reform Wall Street", he's only setting himself up for people to bring up the Savings & Loan scandal and his extensive record of deregulation.

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The economy seems to have really damaged McCain.

Or the reverse.

Some of these numbers are looking good.

Just 17 percent of registered voters say McCain chose Palin because she is well qualified for the job of Vice President. Seventy-five percent say McCain made the choice to help win the election.

Contrast that with the perception of Obama's selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate: 57 percent of registered voters say Obama chose Biden because he is well qualified. Thirty-one percent say the choice was to help with the election.

Her favorable rating among women has fallen 11 points in the past week.

So much for that "sexism" backlash among women.

I'd expect the hysterical attacks to ratchet up pretty quickly here. McCain knows this has been a brutal week. They need a distraction.

Pufferfish

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yeah... like a tantrum. But if so... WHAM!

Everyone should forward this powerful ad against Palin to everyone you know.


https://secure.defenders.org/site/Donation2?idb=0&df_id...


Finally an ad that looks like it could have come from the GOP.

Somewhat OT, but I like that SurveyUSA New Mexico poll, too. Up 41 pts among Hispanics.

Since no one else has said it yet, I guess I'll have to.

This is teh awesome news for John McCain!

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Priceless!

The 17% who think she's qualified are members of Palin's church in Bumfu*k, Alaska, or are legally braindead, or are fetus in utero.

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Comment was in reply to MASON upstream.

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Dear Lord, let this trend continue!

This thing is FAR from being in the bag (Like I need tell anyone here that), but at the very least I must admit that the idea of a swan dive off a Bridge doesn't look nearly as inviting as it did a week ago. ;-)

"Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood!" And let's win this damn election!

Robert

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righto!

In the words of Bill, "It's the economy stupid."

Hammer it home for the next 48 days and Obama will be the next President. The long form commercial is a good start. Should he get a bit wonky in the days ahead? I think he will very likely strike the right balance. McCain is playing off the old playbook and that will hurt him. As for the ugliness, McCain's team might be a little gunshy to attack Obama in the old ways as the liar meme is gelling nicely. Any BS attacks will be fact checked rigorously by the MSM now.

There are 2 days left in the workweek. Obama still has to take it to McCain. Ignoring Palin is paying dividends. I expect it to continue.

Ignoring Palin is paying dividends. I expect it to continue.

I watched the Obama campaign response to Sarah Palin's interview on Hannity & Colmes (the interview itself was worthless, I kept flipping between it and Rachel Maddow).

The surrogate, I don't remember her name but God bless her heart, pushed aside the bait handed to her by Alan Colmes and reached right for John McCain's neck with the first words from her mouth. She pretended Palin was a figment of our imagination, recognizing her only twice during the five minute segment, and hammered McCain on his economic record over and over again.

That's how it should be done. Sarah Palin doesn't exist.

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I would go a step further and say the culture wars don't exist.

It's a made up, false, issue. There are no culture wars.

The founding fathers ended the culture war before it ever got started when they created the constitution.

We are a democracy. A liberal democracy. You can do what ever you want provided it doesn't violate someone else's liberty. If you want to read the bible, you can, if you don't want to you don't have to.

There is no culture war. Republicans made it all up to fool people into voting for them and against themselves.

Precisely. They have nothing to trade upon except bigotry and people's stupidity and intellectual laziness.

Goddamn that's well said!

And I can say Goddamn if I want to!!!

I love America!

McCain lost his lead in several tracking and non-tracking polls because of Hurricane Ike. Hurricane Ike started in a big Red State Texas where 4 million people lost power and telephone connections. After leaving Texas/LA, Ike traveled through several other Red states (OK,MO,OH) and caused similar problems. Therefore the poll results skewed in favor of Obama. The state polls on the other hand were not taken during this period which shows a McCain lead. The national poll leads MAY disappear next week and state polls may still show a McCain lead.

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Act of God?

Yeah that might make sense if the polling companies didn't use party ids in polling so even if a lot of republicans couldn't answer the phone they still get the same amount of republicans in their polling.

That and many state polls look just fine for Obama.

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Talk,

Hurricane Ike may very well have had some sort of impact on the numbers we are seeing, but it seems incredible to me that, outside the most severely hit regions of SE Texas--let alone regions as far north as OK, MO, and especially OH--it could have had any dramatic effect on the lastest polls. I used to live in KS, and there I directly experienced scores of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, yet never once, even after some of the most viscious weather, did we ever lose our landline communications. I have no doubt that plenty of people in SE Texas did lose phone service, and I realize that a hurricane makes a tornado seem like a light shower in comparision, but...

Robert

P.S. "Yes, I'm sorry to hear your house is underwater Ma'am, but who do you plan on voting for?" ;-)

Talk Sense:

National poll would be barely be affected by Ike, which basically has affected the parts of TX.

It gives us a trend.

More key point about these polls, these number fully exclude the bad economic news of the last three days. Assuming, these number will atleast stay or Obama will pull further away in the next few days.

I'm not sure if anyone watched Chris Mathews but I liked his point on Truman saying the buck stops here.

The buck stops with the Republican leadership in the White House. Republican leadership needs to own this economic failure.

New Indiana poll.

O47-M44

GOTV in Indianapolis will be very important, looks like.

Except for this guy. Some anecdotal evidence about Palin's impact on voters who never would have voted for Obama anyway:

Mike Paulin, 49, Indianapolis, said McCain's selection of Palin cemented his support for the Republican ticket.

"Initially, my support was more about not liking Obama," he said. "When McCain chose Palin, with her real strong stance on issues that are important to me, that made McCain a much stronger choice for me."

Paulin said Obama "scares me," because "he hasn't really laid out what he stands for or what his views are."

"Her real strong stance on issues that are important to me?"

Either he's pro-life, or he's just strongly anti-rape-kit.

when you get the "Paulin said Obama "scares me," because "he hasn't really laid out what he stands for or what his views are.""

you know they're either lying or they're just dumb.

...lying or dumb...

There's a third option: racist.

Had to say it.

Forget the "or." She's a fucking lying, dumb racist.

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Come on, surely this poll is just skewed by the hurricane taking out republican phone lines, and nothing to do with constantly telling big fat porky pies (with lipstick) for the last two weeks.

Where did you find that Indiana poll at?

tyvm

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Internals:

Elsewhere, the poll found McCain has a 48 percent to 41 percent lead among men, but his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate has not delivered an advantage among women. Of likely voters, Obama wins with Hoosier women by a margin of 51 percent to 42 percent.

mcShame thinks women are dumb - NOT!

I honestly would be pretty skeptical of this poll.

Selzer, however, is the gold standard in the Midwest. Which makes me prone to believe it's closer to truth than not.

Make McCain campaign here some. Throw some money at WV, force him to campaign there. NC.

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Mr. Kleefeld,

The economy did not hurt McCain. McCain and the group of lying sacks o' crap who who hang out with him hurt McCain. This is strictly foot in mouth disease. The economy lacks aminus.

Unless you meant that the economy may have hurt McCain's husband's, the Ruling Queen of the Undead and Beer, investments AND therefore he, McCain, has less pin money. If that is what you meant I would give you that . . .

Ruling Queen of the Undead and Beer

ROFL

I name it Llothenstein.

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Rolling financial disaster continues. Hong Kong and Shanghai nearly 6% down each and Japan over 3% down.

Terrible, terrible melt-down going on. And the repubs own the desk where the buck stops!

See, it wasn't panic time after all.

Expect it to tighten up again, though, but don't panic then either. Palin is going to end up being an albatross around McCain's neck, and the economic/financial issues are going to drive in the final nail.

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Oomingmak,

I think it's more than petty semantics to say that our word of caution here should be 'defeatism,' not 'panic.' One of the pitfalls we Democrats face during this election is not that we will panic, but that we will fall prey to defeatism--just too easy to do when we've seen this bloody awful movie too many times before.

Defeatism means too many of us who were once fired up stay home election night; don't show up for our volunteer gigs with GOTV efforts. After all, why bother when we're going to lose anyway?

Can't let this happen. Fight the good fight to the end.

Cheers,

Robert

they are part of the same 28% that thinks W is doing a fantastic job. clearly the cream of the crop coming out of the country's educational system.

argh meant to be a reply to CParis.

Meanwhile, McCain appears to think he's back in 1929, when the stock market was in free fall, Republicans claimed the fundamentals of our economy were sound, and Spain was ruled by a hostile dictator.

Not directly on topic, but did anyone catch Ben Stein on Larry King tonight with Bob Reich. He cedes the entire, and I mean ENTIRE crisis issue (and hence the economy) enthusiastcally to Obama. When the Fmr. Labor Sec asked him why he doesn't come over, all he can say is the choice issue. It's remarkable -- you need to check it out if you haven't seen it.

Add it to the Matthews grilling of the McCain hack, and you've got yourself a useful night at the funnies!

It looks real this time. The rage is building as we move toward the election. There is so much to argue with how McLiar has behaved, one literally does not know where to begin.

It's a big fat voter turn-off.

Meanwhile, Obama's org remains intact, embedded, and growing, down here with us where the People live...

I think this shift is real. Keep up the pressure, and the house of GOP cards is going to come down.

If we think the envelope of lying and skullduggery is already being pushed by M-P, imagine when they face being behind getting outspent and stretched in places like IN and VA. Rs aren't used to getting outspent -- money was supposed to be their bailiwick (oops!) -- and it should produce some awful contortions and skullduggery. We ain't seen nasty yet! Happily he's tarnished his credibility already, but it will be ugly.

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Will be???  Heh!

But, yeah, this shit-storm is gonna get a lot worse.

McSame is gonna come out of this a broken man.  Maybe he'll finally get some treatment for that POW PTSD that's been eatin' him up for the last 40 years.

I daresay, he's already broken. Did you see his miserable shuffling of his index cards in MI today? A pathetic high schooler who did not study for his orals, and doesn't really know it.

Sarahcuda's troubles are just beginning. Election or nae, she is headed for real culpability with her Nixonian ways.

Feasts of the Self, however morbid, are often damned entertaining.

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I almost cringe when I think about how he's gonna come across in the debates.

Viva Viva

I notice you are a new poster.

Your stupid and vulgar name pins you as stupid and vulgar.

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Actually I know a girl who's last name is actually Nation. She's pretty hot, too.

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Just remember -- Phil's got that shotgun!

Is it just me or there is a sense in the air democrats are plotting a successful coup at the stroke of the midnight to take back the country.

Aye and indeed. No one seems to be in a buying mood since the McLiar/Sarahcuda Last Ride on the Zombie Train. The bridge ahead, and quite shortly, is out.

Let's just hope we have a country left to take back.

Where's Billy Glad to mock all of you for get excited by "them" polls?

Obama 49, McCain 45

NEW QUINNIPIAC POLLS!

btw...palin's answers at her "town hall meeting" are hilarious

A Conservative Former Editor of National Review Endorses Barack Obama

http://www.dmagazine.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?nm=Core Pages


(Excerpt)

“I now see that Obama is almost the ideal candidate for this moment in American history. I disagree with him on many issues. But those don’t matter as much as what Obama offers, which is a deeply conservative view of the world. Nobody can read Obama’s books (which, it is worth noting, he wrote himself) or listen to him speak without realizing that this is a thoughtful, pragmatic, and prudent man. It gives me comfort just to think that after eight years of George W. Bush we will have a president who has actually read the Federalist Papers.’

“Most important, Obama will be a realist. I doubt he will taunt Russia, as McCain has, at the very moment when our national interest requires it as an ally. The crucial distinction in my mind is that, unlike John McCain, I am convinced he will not impulsively take us into another war unless American national interests are directly threatened."

There are some lights at the end of the Conservative Tunnel!

Elizabeth Drew, author of "Citizen McCain" has officially dumped him: "How John McCain Lost Me"

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13541_Page2.html

McCain new ad on the economy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjvzyFyMO-k&

Fear mongering at best: Lies about high taxes and massive government. They even dare to use the "Liberal" tag. This people have no shame. LIARS!

Surprised they didn't say "the evil doers on Wall Street"

So now mcsenile is using taxpayer $$$ (the federal funding he accepted) to run his ads full of lies, distortions, and smears - I wonder how all those taxpayers who checked that little box to donate $3 to the "Presidential Election Campaign" on the 1040's are feeling - Although I guess this is quite insignificant compared to the billions we are being bilked due with the AIG, Fannie and Freddie bail-outs.

Anyway - how about a cute little ad about mcsenile wasting taxpayer $$$ on lies.

Are all these lobbyists advising him being paid with taxpayer $$$ now, or are they unpaid???

Another ad could be: mcsenile using taxpayer $$$ to pay lobbyists. At least it would be true.

One more thought before heading for Metra: Has anyone seen Palins tax returns yet? Do they exist?

I began to take heart a bit when I was reminded that Geraldine Ferraro brought Mondale's ticket a temporary 15-point celebrity (female) bump, only to lose miserably in the general.

The View is a gift that keeps on giving, and that SNL stuff is unreal. (Anybody who hasn't seen that should -- "And I can see Russia from my house!" LOL!!!) Add to these things WomenAgainstSarahPalin.com, her peculiar public performances (such as I've caught glimpses from overseas)
and this poll, and I begin to suspect, knock on wood:

This is the big one. The ground they will never make up. Like the Tet Offensive.

Not Churchill's "end of the beginning," but indeed, the beginning of the end. May the Heavens smile upon this thought.

Cite:

Head of State

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/cynicism-of-mccains-vp-choice.html

Monday, September 15, 2008

The Cynicism of John McCain and his VP Choice

If you read Jeffrey Goldberg's excellent piece on McCain in the new Atlantic, one fact stands out clearly. McCain's stance on the war is inviolate--it involves what for him are principles of honor that stretch back immediately and directly to his own experiences in the Vietnam war, and to those of his father in World War II. Just one example of many in the first-rate article:


I told Swindle [a cellmate and friend of McCain's] that McCain had argued to me that he doesn’t think about Vietnam overly much when he thinks about the wars of today.


“Bullshit,” Swindle said. “He’ll say Vietnam didn’t affect him, that he doesn’t think about it, that he’s aloof from it. But I see it. It’s there.”


This is the issue on which McCain is inflexible, certain, fully invested, passionate.

It is equally clear that as a result, he views all other issues as malleable, political issues--stances that can be easily taken, and easily changed, tactically-- in order to win a campaign and thus deal with the issue that, to him, matters.

This is utterly clear in his choice of Palin, where his Vietnam-and-since cynicism about political necessities is manifest--one of feeding the bread and circuses desire of the electorate, giving them, so easily fooled, as they were so easily fooled by the media in Vietnam, what they need, in order to be able to deal with the important issue.

The choice of a remarkably unqualified Vice Presidential choice is simply a political necessity. The attitude towards the public, and the media, in this choice, as in many of the public representations and statements of his campaign, is one of an extraordinary, jaded, cynicism: Feed the beast with whatever fantasies and half-truths it takes. The fundamentals of the economy are sound. We'll take care of it later.

Goldberg:

In my conversations with McCain, however, he never appeared greatly troubled by his shifts and reversals. It’s not difficult to understand why: tax policy, or health care, or even off-shore oil drilling are for him all matters of mere politics, and politics calls for ideological plasticity. It is only in the realm of national defense, and of American honor—two notions that for McCain are thoroughly entwined—that he becomes truly unbending.

This is no doubt rooted in McCain's eternal certainties, drummed in by three generations of such certainty. And there is no doubt strength and decency--as well as these "family values"--that drive this commitment to an ideological core.

The question is this: Do we need another president with such a core of ideological inflexibility, rigidity and unwillingness for self-reflection, linked to a long past conflict--and who is willing to resort to half-truths, deceptions, and distortions in its service?

Cite:

Head of State

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/cynicism-of-mccains-vp-choice.html

No need to spam the Cafe with cut-and-pastes from your blog, RH. Quite annoying.

Wow. Never underestimate the power of mind-altering substances, eh?

Bacalove,

the connection for the endorsement of Obama by former editor of National Review is not going through. Do you have more information? What's the name of the author? That one sounds great if it's real.

Pablo

Never checked that box in 24 years of voting...

People people people this financial crisis IS NOT being covered in this poll. MAYBE monday is being covered in the poll AT BEST. The results of this crisis won't be shown in polls until friday of this week or next week at the earliest.

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