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Another Poll Puts McCain Up In Ohio

The new SurveyUSA poll of Ohio gives McCain a four-point lead, corroborating the Suffolk survey today and other polls that have given him the lead in this big swing state.

The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 45%, with a ±3.8% margin of error. In SurveyUSA's last poll here from late June, Obama had a 48%-46% edge.

Key number from the internals: McCain has the solid support of 89% of self-identified Republicans, while Democrats are only voting 77%-19% for Obama -- a possible sign that some of those blue-collar Hillary voters in Ohio haven't quite come back to the Democratic fold.


41 Comments

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If I can add one juvenile comment here....

ohio sucks.

Wow, Eric, you only mentioned Hillary once in your post! Are you feeling okay?

Why is McCain not clinging to his lead Eric?

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The verbal description of that poll was weird.

Specifically:

Among men, McCain leads by 13 points; among women, Obama leads by 4 -- a 17 point gender gap

And yet, here are the numbers. For men: M 54, O 45.

For women: O 49, McCain 41.

Huh?

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Scratch this comment--misreading the numbers.

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Then scratch my reply (the other one, not this one).

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It's Men M-54 O-41 and Wonen O-45 M-41

Oh my god the sky is falling!

Concern trolls unite!

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Can a motivated African American vote make much of a difference in '08? Also, what were polls saying about Ohio just prior to the election in 2004?

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That it was very close.

Here's a link:

Summary of Ohio polls preelection, 2004

Survey USA had Bush up by 2 on 10/31.

FWIW.

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And there are no Hispanics?

I know Survey USA is reasonably reliable, but these numbers are strange.

The percentage of independents seems pretty low, as well.

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Cue the "masses are asses" tripe...

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Like this?
“I just do not trust the American people,” said Eleanor Shavell, 58, a computer programmer, who, along with several others, joked she would move to Canada if Mr Obama loses. “I cannot believe that 80 per cent of this country thinks we’re headed in the wrong direction yet 50 per cent are supporting McCain and Palin. I guess it’s like at school, there’s always got to be a bottom 50 per cent.”

You gotta love those "progressives"...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/afc25cf0-827f-11dd-a019-000077b07658.html

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Well by that logic - we should assume that all neocon Republican party loyalists are - um - like you?

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Oh spare me your silly selection bias. McCain has shown that he agrees philosophically with the "Americans are stupid" idea through his cynical, duplicitous campaign.

I have enough faith in people's intelligence to believe that the scorched earth blitzkrieg of lies McCain strategy will fail.

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She's the lipstick.
Is that the best reply in the whole she-bang so far?

The reply went over most people's heads I think.

This woman is dangerously not qualified.

She can't even answer questions from the press.

Republicans expect us to treat her like she's retarded.

But this ain't the Special freakin Olympics

Dangerously Unqualified To Be President.

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But . . . But . . . But . . . McCain can't work the internet tubes or e-mail cuz he was being tortured while Obama a young man (of 9 or so).

McCain is finally getting around to admitting he is lying. When he admits it, then the point is that character counts because you don't get a second chance to tell the truth. The fact that the lie was told becomes established and he's got to wear it around until November.
John McCain, admitted liar.

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Dig it - fire for effect

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Uhm, actually what happens is the press then fall all over themselves in expressing their admiration that McCain could show such honorable moral courage in admitting to having lied.

See today's Daily Howler; Bob has some excellent commentary on this very 'phenomenon.'

Robert

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I looked at the cross-tabs and they don't look out of hand, just like the SurveyUSA internals earlier. (although those appeared to overcount McCain's support among black voters)

The difference between this one and the VA poll is that in VA, Obama is getting 87% of the Dem vote. In Ohio, it's just 77%. We're never going to win back those Reagan Dems, are we? And Obama's never going to top 80% Dem support in Ohio. Can they just switch parties already of become indies? I know there are state level contests but if you're never going to vote for a Dem for President, are you really a Dem?

The amazing thing is that 58% of the folks polled list the economy at the top issue and Obama leads with those voters by 8pts, but is still down 4 overall. I guess the question is - why is it the top issue for only 58% of those polled?

Finally, in their last poll from late June, Obama led by 2%. While he's doing slightly but not much better among men, he went from a 24pt lead among women to a 4pt lead. (?!?!?!?) He also went from a 33pt lead among the under 35s to a 13pt lead among that same age demo. In June, he was winning pro-choice voters, 65-28. This month it's 61-35. Translation - working class white women - many of them under 35 - are flocking to McCain/Palin because the shiny, new object recently added to that ticket has grabbed their attention. Will it last?

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Obama needs to follow up on the line Biden used today about dignity.

He needs to start saying that McCain has lost his dignity, in terms of how low he goes in this campaign...and what's worse he wants to take yours too.

There is no dignity in not being able to put for on the table.
There is no dignity in not being able to pay your bills.
There is no dignity in not being able to get healthcare for your spouse.
There is no dignity when your pension plan and life savings are reneged on by your employer or washed down the drain in this financial crisis.

John McCain lost his dignity and now he wants yours.

I say no way, no how, no Mc Cain.

this will resonate with the voters and it will be a great soundbite.

Poll: Obama Takes Narrow Lead In Virginia
By Eric Kleefeld

The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.7%

Another Poll Puts McCain Up In Ohio
By Eric Kleefeld

The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

4 points for Obama is "narrow". 4 points for McCain is "up".

Seriously, Josh and Greg... you've got a McCain plant in your midst. ;)

John

Ion, the people ARE idiots. Half of them anyway. Why do you doubt it? They 'identify' with Sarah Palin? What the hell does that mean for their jobs and savings and kids' education? It's sad, frustrating and angering, and the rest of us who give a shit about things other than moose-gutting and POW bullshit suffer the consequences.

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Yeah, they identify with her like they identified with George Bush. You know, they'd like to have a beer with them. Meanwhile, any person running for president or vice-president has neither the time nor the desire to have a beer with anybody who bases their vote on that criteria. Wake up call folks - while Sarah Palin may be pushing the lower limit re: presidential/veep qualifications, she is not "like you". You don't get to where she is by being average and normal. And she really doesn't give a shit about you.

And even if she were "like you", wouldn't that be the last person you'd want next in line for the presidency. I mean, I wouldn't want me or anybody I know as the vice-president of this country.

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What makes you think a straight line can be drawn from people finding Palin to be "like them," whatever the hell that means, and support for John McCain?

It's the economy, stupid, and one of the most salient issues in the rust belt is NAFTA. Unfortunately, Obama doesn't seem to have the political sense to demagogue it a bit even if he is an authentic Furman/Goulsbee-school neoliberal.

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Whether you believe the people are idiots or not, it's politically useless and adds not one scintilla of practical value in addressing what needs to be done.

Ohio is going to be a real tough state. I'm more hopeful for Virginia at this point. The latent racism among typically Democratic union workers in Appalachia is going to keep Obama's numbers down. Sad. But that's Ohio.

Pufferfish

I'm sure you mean a narrow lead Erik. I'm so sure, I'll just pretend that you wrote that initially, and won't even mention it again. Until your next round of breathless poll headlines of course.

Obama in Colorado:

"It’s great that he now wants to talk about putting corporate lobbyists in their place. But he needs to explain why he put seven of them in charge of his campaign. If you think those lobbyists are working day and night for John McCain just to put themselves out of business, well I’ve got a bridge to sell you up in Alaska."

Sorry, Ohio voters are just not the brightest.

Call me an elitist but i fyou vote BUsh AND NOW MCCAIN, you deserve waht you get.

Ah, for those heady days when Obama was only days away from going up 60% - 40% as soon as Senator Clinton's black star faded from the limelight, was going to unite Americans across all party, gender, racial, and economic lines (despite absolutely no history of every having done so!), and how he was going to take all 50 states and earn a huge mandate for change, as opposed to Senator Clinton's so-characterized tacky little plan to simply win the election by the smallist amount possible - Obama was going to win big, while Clinton was only willing to win small!

Now, Obama the supposed uniter has had to turn to Clinton to unite the party for him, lacking the balls that Kennedy had to put his biggest opponent but also the biggest vote getter at his side, and has been reduced to contradicting his commitment to change by choosing an old-guard senator as his running mate, while his supporters continue to spit on Clinton supporters and rant about their disloyalty and the payback coming their way.

LOL!!!

So, where is the great uniter and why hasn't he united the party, not to mention the various other non-Democrats in the country who he was supposed to bring together into a great big Coalition of the Willing [for Change]?

Why is Obama tracking back to the middle and more importantly why are his supporters not taking him to task for that after bitterly and viciously criticizing Senator Clinton for the same?

Why are Obama supporters demanding that he go on the attack more when they equally bitterly and viciously condemned such tactics as the "politics of the past," when Senator Clinton was still in the race?

Well, cultism knows no bounds in rationalization.

Maybe Obama should stop running for National Therapist and actually run for president and maybe his supporters should stop looking for a National Therapist and start looking for a leader.

Or you call all just sit in a circle, sing Kumbahyah, continue to viciously disparage anyone who disagrees with your cultish obsession with Obama the personality, and bury your head in the sand of denial about what the polls are telling you about Obama the candidate.

Obama claims to be the uniter, so it is up to him to win women and Reagan Democrats back - it ain't the job of the Clintons. If Obama can't win these groups back on his own, then he won't be able to unite even the Democrats in Congress, should he eke out a win, much less independents and conservatives in Congress. And that was the whole point of his candidacy, right?

He won the primry. Clinton lost. You've got to let it go and find some closure. Seriously.

Awesome! Way to kick some strawman ass there, still angry no matter what she says Hillary supporter!

"I support Hillary Clinton but I don't give a shit about what she says is the right thing to do in this election."

I think McCain would claim this troll fundamentally sound.

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"Obama claims to be the uniter, so it is up to him to win women and Reagan Democrats back."

Maybe he should take a horsewhip to 'em, huh?

You're an idiot. Go somewhere.

Hmmmmmmm, McCain is "UP" 4 pts and Obama has "NARROW" 4 pts. Am I missing something here??????

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In a close election, one that is 51 Obama to 48 McCain, I don't see purple-red states that went heavily to Clinton in the primaries going to Obama. If Obama opens up a national lead of greater than 4 or 5 then Ohio and Florida will come back into play.

Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada - that's were the close election will be won. By the time Ohio or Florida flip to Obama the election will already be his.

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Who. Cares. ?

Who GIVES a shit about these polls? They're worthless. Take a look at the Party Affiliation of the poll and tell me if that makes any sense at all. No. It does not.

Next month I'll start paying attention.

IMHO, none of this has anything to do with Hillary. My mother in Cincinnati says she can tell that when certain of her neighbors tell you, "Obama just doesn't have enough experience" while they avoid looking you in the eye, what they really mean is "I'm just not comfortable voting for a negro."

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Your mom is absolutely right about what the lack of eye contact means. What this has to do with Hillary is that her and Bill polarized the election on the basis of race. Hillary repeatedly stated that Obama couldn't win and this is precisely what she meant. Her and Bill have a lot to do with how this transpired.

I hope there are enough new voters that come out in masse to over compensate for those folks like your moms neighbors.

Our country has to move forward and we have to leave this crazy skin color bias behind us, or the country will not survive. It has simply played out...just like it did in the professional sports leagues.

At some point folks realize they would rather have a winning team with Negros than a an all white team of losers.

Folks like those neighbors are most likely fervent Buckeyes who would never even think about taking the white player without the skills and talents of the All American Negro. Anyone, in Cincinatti who is comfortable with Chad Johnson creating a winning Bengal team should recognize that Obama is the winning player to lead America's team.

Or they can watch their pensions shrivel and disappear their retirement savings dry up and lose their homes and not be able to afford food or gas.

Seems to me that those things should make them far more uncomfortable than voting for a Negro.

But then this is America.

and

Palin the Pathetic is galvanizing your moms
neighbors into the 'comfort zone'

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