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A Tale Of Two Headlines

Hmmm. Let no one say whining doesn't work. Take a look at the headline and subhed on today's Times pieces previewing Obama and McCain's debating styles:

Either the McCain campaign's comically dishonest assault on the paper yesterday is bearing fruit -- or maybe the paper really is an adjunct of the Obama campaign and is doing Obama the favor of lowering expectations for his performance and inflating them for McCain? Our money's on the first option...


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Whatever the intent, I'm hoping it has the effect of raising expectations for McCain. GWB always benefited from the 'soft bigotry of low expectation'. This time, hopefully, McCain won't be able to paly that game.

...excuse me 'play that game'.

Yup. It may be that the times is showing all the backbone of a jellyfish, but anything that raises expectations for McShame and lowers them for Obama is probably for the better. Plus what really counts is what happens in the debates and how it plays out in the media -- not in the pre-debate bullshit.

Yep, I would rather have high expectations for McCain and low expectations for Obama going into the debate.

With GWB, expectations were so low that if he just showed up and didn't drool, he was praised for a brilliant performance.

Barack needs to master the snappy one-liner and eschew the professorial droning.

And to show some emotion. Within the confines of looking presidential, of course.

Barack should be able to light McCain's short fuse during the debate(s) for a demonstration of one of those temper tantrums John is famous for.

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If I were Jim Lehrer, I'd bring a fire extinguisher.  Maybe even a fire hose.

<whine>
I posted this comment last night, and didn't even get a h/t from Greg.  Waaannh!
</whine>

If you want to get something accomplished, here, Greg Sargent (assuming he knows someone at the Times) needs to send a copy of this piece and the attendant comments to the Times.

The Times has a big institutional ego. If they know that they're being perceived as having been wussed by McCain's little political goons, they won't like it one bit.

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O let them throw McLame a bone. He just falls that much flatter when Obama mops up the floor with him.

The NYT is right. Obama really isn't that good of a debater.

Don't be a cynic! Just because a politician is nuanced and avoids sound-bites doesn't mean their a bad debater, it means they're not talking down to the voters.

I agree. Let's not let the MSM's superficial priorities define what a good debater is (even if we have to acknowledge the impact of those priorities on narrative and perceptions).

Plus, if you watch many of the actual debates from the primaries (with Clinton before Ohio/Texas, for example), I think you see that the line about Obama being a weak debater is largely conventional wisdom run amuck.

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You folks are playing semantics. The question the NYT addresses isn't whether Obama is a better debater on the merits. The question whether his debating skills vs. McCain's will help or hurt his chances in the elections. It's a cliche that Nixon beat JFK on the merits, but JFK creamed him on voter appear. Reagan was also famously impressive on appeal over merits in debates. Gore was famously unimpressive.

And don't be blinded by your passion for Obama. He isn't great on appeal in the debates either. He's no Gore, but he's no Reagan or JFK either. He'll probably trounce McCain on the merit, but that's not what I'm nervous about.

That said, there is absolutely no harm in lowering expectations for him. Part of the reason that Bush impressed people more than Gore in the debates, particularly the first one, was that everyone expected him to get his ass handed to him. It's like when you go into a mediocre movie expecting it to be trash.

Agreed.

Since catchy one-offs, often tend to go over better with the uniformed public, than long, thoughtful responses, John McCain will come to the debate armed with enough punch lines to sink a ship.

Motive or not, i hope the MSM does raise expectations for McCain, because when Obama takes McCain to the cleaners the MSM will have yoke on their face. This reminds me of the time before Kerry's first debate four years w/ George Bush--the MSM gave the exact critique Obama is getting about Kerry. And what happened? Kerry handed Bush his ass. So, let the games begin.

I'm betting that the NYT folded like a cheap suit, but at this point I don't expect any integrity from the corporate media. It's a shame, though: the Times was the first newspaper I ever read.

I'm cool with this. Expectations are everything in a debate. Let people think Obama is the underdog. There's only upside to a storyline like this.

Pufferfish

I totally agree. Let expectations be low. Obama is actually much better on the stump than in debates.

Yes! Repeat it loud and clear! Obama is woefully mismatched in these debates! McCain is a much better debater and Obama will be lucky to come away without farting loudly in the microphone and vomiting all over the podium! Oh, the wretched and evil debates!

If you ask me, the TIMES is doing Obama a favor. Look at 2000 and 2004...... the person with no public speaking skills "won" the debates by not soiling himself.


Poor Obama!!!! He has no idea what is coming his way. :( Poor, Poor, Poor Obama!!!!

I! Love! Exclamation! Points!!!!!

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Meh.

As if McCain's 'instincts of a fighter pilot' did him any good when it counted.

So true...he was a very ineffective fighter pilot in Vietnam and a waste of training and valuable wartime resources. I don't even understand why references to this obviously ineptitude is a central selling point to his campaign for POTUS. I mean if your a fighter pilot, you are obviously more useful for the war effort if you are actually flying and fighting.

Slight correction: he was a bomber, not a fighter pilot. But terrible none the less.

Yep, the A-4 is technically an "attack bomber", but you make an excellent point.

Typically, McCain's pilot instincts result in crash-and-burn.

May it be so.

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If you ask me, the TIMES is doing Obama a favor. Look at 2000 and 2004...... the person with no public speaking skills "won" the debates by not soiling himself.

That's just how I see this. I agree with you.

These presidential debates are not like college debates, where well reasoned arguments score points. Rather, as Roger Simon pointed out recently, they are a matter of theater. Sabre rattling, bluster, short, pity if empty statements play well. This is what McCain excels in -- indeed, it's his only talent. And McCain is not as courteous as Obama -- he will interrupt, step on, Obama's statements.

So, I think the Times is actually just telling the truth, that Obama's style may be good for governing, but not for presidential debating.

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I expect that the debate will be just like the ones in the primary season where the pundits say Obama lost because he had no sound bites. But the voters who watced it thought that he won.

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Well there's also the fact that anyway you look at it, Kerry won all 3 debates with Bush and still lost.

So those who think debates are deal makers are overstating it, IMO.

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Any one who thinks that any one event determines an election is overstating it. Debates will not win you an election but they can loose it for you.

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Yes, spread the word.

McCain is a master-debater!!

-- ARG

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You mean he'll win handily?

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What else would you expect from a man who spend 5 1/2 years as a POW.

Stop jerking around. McCain's got a smooth hand in this.

(LOL!)

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Whatever their reasoning THIS IS EXCELENT NEWS FOR McCAIN!!!!!! He will be glad to know he is expected to be a much better debater than Obama!

Fighter pilot instincts make a great debater? Huh?

I was expecting something more like, "For 5 1/2 years, John S. McCain had no debating partners."

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That's what I meant to say upthread.

His 'fighter pilot instincts' bought him 894 out of 899 and the Academy.

His 'fighter pilot instincts' got his ass shot out of the fucking sky.

Besides, it was 40 years ago. My guess is he hasn't even flown a goddamned plane since the one that got shot out from under him.

According to an article from Carl Bernstein in Vanity Fair, McCain crashed for the 5th time in 1980 while flying an ultra-light airplane.

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Hey Greg - Call the NYT and ask them why - ask them if they caved.


The expectations game? typical of the MSM.

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Or maybe they watched Obama in his previous debates...(um...uh...er...the...uh...mmm...)

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It would be horrible if we elected some one who actualy thought about what they were saying rather than regurgitating the pavlovian conditioned talking point, wouldn't it?

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McLame has certainly shown how well he does when he knows the questions beforehand.

So true. It's a wonder he ever got a statement out. McCain is going to manhandle him in this debate, especially when they get to the free flowing part of the debate. No question. It's a good thing Obama has been on an uptrend in the polls lately, otherwise, his upcoming performance could dramatically alter the race in McCain's favor.

I'm hoping Obama can do enough to justify being on the stage with him, but I'm worried that he just doesn't have the intellectual and emotional make-up to handle such a formidable and skilled debater.

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Hear! Hear! I hope he can controll his bowels in the face of the formidable oponent that McCain will prove to be. It would be a game changer if he shat himself durring the debate.

The real issue is how it will the debate go over with the undecideds. Neither Obama or McCain have much of a hope of convincing the other's supporters from switching.

I think the economic crisis along with the long war in Iraq has altered the theater dynamics a bit this year. It will be which one leaves the undecided with the impression of real leadership. God only knows with many what that amounts to, but "well, there you go again" probably won't cut it.

McCain a scrappy fighter? really? if i can recall, didn't then Gov. Bush get under McCain's skin during a debate?

The headlines of both articles are (as expected) teasers to invite the reader into the material.

Both articles have both positive and negative things to say about the candidates.

I do think that Obama needs to practice conciseness in order to increase his effectiveness. He also needs to prepare himself for ridiculous attacks from McCain.

Obama is the underdog in this debate - it's about Foreign Policy after all, this is supposed to be McCain's bread and butter.

Obama's "problem" is that he tried to answer the question on the stage, not have ready-made answers to recite that best answer the question asked.

The format of the debate should be interesting, with both candidates going back and forth on issues, it could get interesting.

Obama better have an answer ready about the surge - because you know McCain is going to really try and hit him on that to score points.

Obama should get McCain to defend Palin's FP readiness and attack McCain's unwavering support of the war in it's early stages.

Did Obama ever accept the Stephanopolis Town Hall debate that McCain already agreed to?

If can just throw out a quick response and the pivot the surge to the cost of staying in Iraq he should be fine. Most people don't really care about the surge, they just the war to be over.

About the surge -- Obama needs to come back to the line he used in the primary which is that he's going to get rid of the mentality that got us into Iraq. The real issue is who had the right judgment about going to war in the first place. If Obama had been president, 4,000+ young Americans would still be alive today and the country wouldn't have pissed away a trillion dollars. Focus on the fact that McShame still things fighting a war against a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, no WMDs and posed no threat to us was the right thing to do.

ALSO: Obama needs to hit over and over again that virtually every major foreign policy pronouncement he has made -- from the need to talk with adversaries to setting a timetable for withdrawal -- has subsequently been followed by the Bush administration, leaving McShame out in right field all by his lonesome. As someone wrote not too long ago, Obama has already been shaping our foreign policy -- for the better.

The NyT calls this JOURNALISM?

I read those articles on the subway this morning and I wasn't complaining. Lowering the expectations for Obama is good. While I thought Obama did very well during the primary debates the punditocracy did not agree. Nonetheless, I think that those people who actually spend the time to listen to the candidates and form their own opinions will be pleased with Obama while those folks who do not tune in and instead get their news second-hand will "learn" that McCain won the debate. After all, the traditional media, especially television, has a big stake in concluding that this is a close race, even if the reality is somewhat different.

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I'll take option #2.

Lowering expectations for Obama plays right into his hands.

I DO appreciate the lowering of expectations couple with the fact that the debate is on McSpain's putative strength.

This is a Carter/Reagan set up depending of course upon "which Obama shows up"

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I said this upthread, but if y'all recall, Kerry handed Bush his ass 3 times in '04 - he won all 3 debates. He didn't win the election.

I do not think debates are deal makers for that many people.

I am with you on this point, dear Tena. More to the point, Nate Silver is also with you on this point.

Stop, you're both right! :-)

You'll recall that Bush had some kind of device in the back of his jacket which, if it were any larger or more obvious, would have required its own podium. The MSM dutifully refused to make any reference to it.

Now with that kind of simpering obedience on the part of the Fourth Estate, are you really surprised that when they got to tell the story of those debates, Bush ultimately won the election?

A Snarky remark from SFCWALLACE?

COLOR ME SURPRISED!!!!

This was a gift, wrapped and tied with a ribbon from the NY Times to Barack Obama. What I love about this is that McCain can't whine about it at all, though you know they'd like to. "No fair, you're inflating expectations for us; you know we can't compete with Obama. You're obviously in the tank for him." Thank you NY Times!

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+1

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I WANT lower expectations for Obama going INTO the debate. So if he does well -- it will mean more.

I'm terrified of how badly Obama debates. In the primaries he showed himself to be the weakest debater ever to run for public office. Against McCain, who is the self-admitted "master" of foreign policy, he's pretty screwed.

Hell, if Obama manages to turn up and not skip out of fear at the McCain juggernaut, we can call it a win.

/please run with this, media

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Well you can sit there and shiver with terror is you like, but I find it really silly myself.


Tongue in cheek, Tena. I've no doubt that Obama will do fine. But I'd like the media to go into this with low expectations for Obama. Otherwise, they'll all this the start of McCain's comeback, facts be damned.

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All in all, the headlines are BETTER for Obama. Obama's expectations for the debate is MUCH LOWER than it is for McCain which is good for Obama.

All I can say is that Obama better get good and ready for the debate with good, concise, crisp answers. This debate is MORE important than any ad that Obama camp runs right now.

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See I don't get this.

Not after what I saw happen in '04. I realize this isn't '04, but Kerry handed Bush his ass in all 3 debates in '04 and still didn't win.

I don't think the debates are that important. I think they may sway some undecideds, but I have hard time thinking they will even accomplish that much after what I've seen in the last two presidential elections.

As always, I could be wrong. But Kerry won those debates in '04, hands down.

I think the outcome from this debate is to solidify the gains he has made in the last week and half. In places like PA and FL, Obama can put at ease some of the undecideds or weakly leaning Obama voters. ARG today has Obama in PA at +4. A good showing at the debate and he could get a solid +5 in PA. That alone won't win the election for him but it will allow Obama to concentrate on places like OH, FL, and VA.

Obama: PLEASE don't put me in the briar patch, McCain.

wink wink

Obama had trouble in the primary debates in large part because he had the contradictory goals of coming across as a uniter of Democrats while trying to distinguish himself from the other Democrats.

Against McCain Obama's already been testing and polishing his rhetoric -- McCain is a good man, but I disagree with his policies, and frankly he just doesn't get it. He won't have the same trouble as in the primaries.

On Foreign Policy Obama should have the advantage of superior knowledge and analysis, and the advantage that his positions are more popular than McCain's. It's one thing for McCain to distort an Obama sound bite in an advertisement, like saying "Obama called Iraq a tiny country", but it's quite another to try to raise that point in a debate where the other person can respond eloquently.

I fully expect Obama will have several moments when he says something like: "Look, we're tired of rhetoric like that, Senator McCain. We're tired of being told that a willingness to talk is a sign of weakness. Israel is talking with Hamas. The Bush administration is talking with Iran. Nixon talked with China." That kind of thing -- where he takes a rhetorical attack from McCain and turns it around on him.

The truth is McCain is a hothead with a very simplistic view of policy. There are times when that sells, like say, 9/12/01. But after 8 years of Bush the people are desperate for a leader with wisdom and real strength. The contrast between Obama and McCain will be night-and-day. on this topic -- in the end most people will react as George Will did this week: "One of these two is acting presidential, and it's not John McCain."

For the record, I don't know the rationale behind Obama's decision to not hold town halls during the summer, but perhaps one reason is that they wanted to have the stark contrast between their two styles become apparent in Sept/Oct, not in July, so that the starkness would be fresh in people's minds when they vote.

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Good comment, Monument.


My concern is that the first debate gives the old man a chance to change the subject away from the economy. And of course, the media spin. I can see it now: "McCain Bests Uppity Upstart With Quick Quips." Mostly though ... on a different subject ... I hope to hell Obama votes against whatever bailout nightmare come out of the 'Democratic' Congress. Our courageous party will fold faster than Superman on laundry day; it's just a matter of when.

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Advantage Obama for this debate:

1. Foreign Policy is suppose to be McCain's expertise thus the people in general will have higher expectations for him.

2. Pundits believe that Obama isn't a good debater so expectations for Obama will be low in punditry-land.

3. Thus if Obama doesn't do any major stumbles and looks presidential as well as likeable going toe to toe with McCain even if he "loses" the debate, Obama wins just as Gore lost the debate to Bush in 2000.

Having watched carefully, as Gore "debated" Bush (can you debate a Special Needs kid... really?), it was only when the mainstream media dutifully instructed me that he had lost, because he was an intulleckshul and he sighed heavily, that I learned that Gore "lost".

Actually, I think the correct answer is that they're just whores.

Maybe they're just trying to "balance" the low expectations created when the McCain campaign announced he'd be taking a NAP prior to the debate, while Obama will be out shooting hoops. Last I heard, John McCain needs Ambien to fall asleep.

chill. it's all in the expectations. obama just won the debate

chill. it's all in the expectations. obama just won the debate

I agree that the Times just handed Obama a gift. Think of the fact that this will also make people empathize with him on certain levels. "Oh, he's not a good debater? I remember debating in school...I hated it! Poor guy! I hope he does okay!" The high expectations leave McCain with the potential to look decidedly clownish.

I am not that worried on the debates I can see it going like the kennedy nixon debate in the 60s where kennedy came across young and ready while nixon just looked old and out of place

with all the mistakes and lies mcsame has been doing I can see him tripping himself up and looking just like nixon did

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