Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, showing that Barack Obama was expanding his lead in the run-up to the first debate:

• Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-45%.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to an Obama lead yesterday of 50%-45%.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-43%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 49.3%-43.8%, up from a lead yesterday of 48.9%-44.5%.

Bear in mind that virtually all of this poll sampling came from before the debate -- as such, it doesn't tell us anything about where the race stands after the debate, but it does give us a baseline.

It also shows that John McCain's pseudo-suspension and active intervention in the bailout negotiations have been a complete bust, with Obama taking a national lead of over five points.

Obama Ad: McCain Said "Zero" About Middle Class
The Obama campaign is quick out the gate with this new TV ad on the economy, criticizing McCain for saying nothing about the concerns of the middle class during the debate:

"Number of minutes in debate: 90," the announcer says. "Number of times John McCain mentioned the middle class: Zero."

McCain Ad: Obama Plays Politics With Soldiers' Lives
The McCain campaign has their own national TV ad, which doesn't make any reference to the debate. The ad accuses Obama of playing politics with soldiers' lives when he voted against funding the Iraq War, using year-old footage of Joe Biden criticizing Democrats who voted against funding:

"Barack Obama: Playing politics, risking lives," the announcer says. "Not ready to lead."

Dem Ticket In North Carolina And Virginia
Barack Obama and Joe Biden are holding a rally this afternoon in Greensboro, North Carolina, which began at 12:15 p.m. ET. Later on today, they have a rally in Fredericksburg, Virginia, with them scheduled to speak at 6:30 p.m. ET.

McCain Back In Washington
John McCain is off the campaign trail today, instead going back to WAshington t participate in negotiations on the Wall St. bailout.

Hillary Campaigning In Michigan
Hillary Clinton is campaigning on behalf of the Democratic ticket today in Michigan. First up is a rally scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET in Grand Ledge, then a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Grand Rapids. Finally, Hillary will do a rally at 6:30 p.m. ET in Flint.

Focus Group: McCain's Negativity Backfired In Debate
Time reports that a focus group run by Dem pollster Stan Greenberg found an interesting result for the debate: Voting decisions were not changed among undecided voters, but the perception of John McCain as a negative campaigner was strengthened immensely. Before the debate, McCain was seen as more negative by a seven-point margin, and then by a 26-point margin afterward -- and for his trouble, Barack Obama's numbers on readiness to be president actually increased. Thus, it appears that McCain's decision to go on the offensive in this debate only backfired.

On reflection, last night's debate is best understood by what McCain failed to do do. With the dynamic of the race hardening daily in Obama's favor, McCain needed to force a moment where Obama's supposed inexperience and lack of global knowledge jarred viewers into a sudden sense that putting him in charge is risky and dangerous -- hence McCain's repetition of that word.

He didn't do that. At all.

The problem for McCain is that majorities seem to fundamentally agree with Obama's view of the world and of America's role in it. Majorities want out of Iraq. Majorities view the original invasion as a mistake. Majorities favor meeting with hostile foreign leaders. Majorities say restoring America's image in the eyes of the rest of the world is a priority. Majorities say Obama is more likely to do that.

To be sure, McCain obviously does hold key advantages on national security. The latest New York Times poll finds McCain with big leads on the question of who's more knowledgeable about the world and who is likely to be an effective commander in chief. Voters also have repeatedly given McCain the edge on national security preparedness.

But what McCain needs to do is to get voters to make their decision on the basis of those advantages -- and not based on manifold other considerations, such as their overall visions and what each man says he'll do as President on foreign and domestic affairs alike. Right now, polls suggest that voters simply aren't making their choice on the basis McCain wants them to. What's more, as Nate Silver points out, Obama is actually closing the readiness gap.

We still stick to our opinion that on foreign policy McCain landed more blows and put Obama on the defensive too often. But ultimately, the electorate is already intimately familiar with the foreign policy differences between the two men. McCain may have contrasted himself effectively with Obama, but it wasn't enough.

Even if Obama was on the defensive at times, he projected a clear sense of calm and conveyed a knowledge of the world that was, at bottom, reassuring. Far from being apologetic about his foreign policy vision, Obama unabashedly stuck to his contention that, simply put, he is right and McCain is wrong. He argued his case convincingly, with an unmistakable grasp of nuance and detail.

McCain last night needed to suddenly reveal Obama as frighteningly unpresidential, unprepared, and potentially incompetent in the realm of international affairs. In short, McCain needed to force a moment where Obama looked a bit like, well, McCain's running mate. He needed to startle the electorate into seeing this race in a new way. And he didn't do that. Not even close.

A roundup of more opinion after the jump.

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Okay, we thought that McCain had a slight upper hand tonight (though we also said it wasn't a game changer, which is basically another way of saying that McCain didn't do what he had to). But the initial polls suggest that viewers give the nod to Obama in a big way.

Here's the CNN poll, conducted among debate-watchers:

Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- Barack Obama or John McCain?
Obama 51%
McCain 38%

Did _______ do a better or worse job than you expected?
Obama: Better 57%, Worse 20%, Same 23%
McCain: Better 60%, Worse 20%, Same 18%

Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or John McCain would better handle each of the following issues:

• The war in Iraq: Obama 52%, McCain 47%

• Terrorism: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

• The economy: Obama 58%, McCain 37%

• The current financial crisis: Obama 54%, McCain 36%

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described Barack Obama or John McCain during tonight's debate:

• Was more intelligent: Obama 55%, McCain 30%

• Expressed his views more clearly: Obama 53%, McCain 36%

• Spent more time attacking his opponent: McCain 60%, Obama 23%

• Was more sincere and authentic: Obama 46%, McCain 38%

• Seemed to be the stronger leader: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

• Was more likeable: Obama 61%, McCain 26%

• Was more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you: Obama 62%, McCain 32%

Based on what _______ said and did in tonight's debate, do you think he would be able to handle the job of president if he is elected?
Obama 69%-29%
McCain 68%-30%

And the numbers released so far from the CBS poll of undecided debate-watchers: 39% said Obama won, 25% said McCain won, and 36% said it was a draw. Forty-six percent said their opinions of Obama went up, compared to only 31% who said the same about McCain. On the economy, 66% said Obama would make the right decisions, compared to 44% who said the same for McCain.

John McCain seemed to be the candidate on the offensive tonight in some key exchanges, and the economic meltdown didn't prevent the debate from being mostly about national security -- turf favorable to McCain, at least tonight. But ultimately, there were no real game changers.

The driving tension of tonight's debate was that it was originally supposed to be about national security -- and yet the entire first half ended up being about the economy. Obama had a decisive edge throughout the first half. But when it segued into foreign policy, there's little question that McCain projected more authority and confidence, and landed more blows than Obama did, though it's unlikely that any of those blows were devastating enough to matter in the long run.

Obama headed into this debate in a commanding position. The primary question at the outset was how Obama would use his advantage -- would he try to go after McCain aggressively and damage him even further, or would he remain aloof and hope McCain would come across as attacking out of desperation?

The surprise of the night was that McCain was able to seize the offensive and frame the foreign policy debate on his own terms without looking like he was desperate. Indeed, if anything, the dynamic shifted a bit back in McCain's direction.

To be sure, Obama did make some of the points he had to. He laid out the case against McCain on Iraq in pithy detail and skewered McCain's constant "surge" references pretty artfully. "John, you like to pretend like the war began in 2007," Obama said, before reciting a litany of all the things McCain had gotten wrong about Iraq.

Obama also tried to fight back hard in another interesting exchange. McCain brought up a bracelet he wears that he said was given to him by the mother of a dead soldier who, he said, didn't want her son to have died in vain. Obama countered by saying he was wearing a bracelet from a bereaved mother who told him she doesn't want any other mothers to endure what she has.

But McCain was unquestionably able to put Obama on the defensive on national security tonight. There's little question that McCain landed blows as he aggressively hit Obama for his willingness to meet without preconditions with the leaders of hostile foreign powers. And while Obama rightly pointed out that his position doesn't amount to a willingness to have "tea" with said leaders, McCain was defining the terms of the debate at that point.

All this said, this was the night that was supposed to be fought on McCain's most favorable turf. And overall, Obama didn't appear noticeably rattled or off his game in any significant way. So while we'd say that McCain did seem to have the upper hand tonight at times, nothing happened in this debate that will shift the underlying dynamic of the race as it stands right now.

One other point: Obama has proven again and again that his pacing and timing in this race have been impeccable. In an interesting moment, Obama congratulated McCain as they left their podiums, in a tone that suggested that Obama isn't terribly worried about the current state of play. If the history of this campaign is any guide, Obama will press the pedal down in the remaining two debates.

Late Update: Initial polls show that Obama won the debate handily.

The debate shifts over to foreign policy, and Obama takes his best shot at McCain over Iraq, laying out the whole case:

John you like to pretend like the war began in 2007. You talk about the surge -- the war started in 2003. And at the time when the war started, you said it was gonna be easy, you said we knew where the weapons of mass destruction were, you were wrong. You said that we were gonna be treated as liberators. You were wrong. You said there was no history of violence between Shia and Sunni. And you were wrong.

And so the question is the judgment of whether or not -- if the question is, who is equipped as the next president to make good decisions about how we use our military , how we make sure that we are prepared and ready for the next conflict, then I think we can take a look at our judgment.

The Iraq debate can be described as follows: You say invasion, I say surge.

Obama's attack was good stuff, but to our eyes, Obama seemed a bit on the defensive in the skirmish that followed. And truth be told, McCain is crisper and less muddled and more confident than we expected him to be, at least in certain areas. Overall, however, right now we think it's shaping up as a draw, with neither breaking out.

A bit of an odd exchange: McCain appears to forcefully propose a spending freeze on everything but defense spending and money for veterans.

But when pressed on whether he really wants this, he says it's something we should look at.

In response, Obama points to spending on the war.

"We're spending ten billion dollars a month in Iraq when they have a 79 billion surplus," Obama said, adding the more important point that it's having adverse effects at home.

Obama was clearly looking for an opening to bring up Iraq, and more precisely, to link the war to the domestic economic crisis.

Obama's challenge is to keep the focus on the fundamental ideological differences between the parties on the economy, as a way of distracting from McCain's claims to differences between himself and the basic Republican governing economic philosophy.

McCain's challenge, meanwhile, is to keep the focus on specific things from his record that show an independent streak, to obscure his fundamental agreement with GOP deregulatory philosophy.

Obama tries to hit this early, making the point that Republicans and McCain are latter-day converts to the cause of government intervention. "We need it not just when there's a crisis," Obama says. "Folks have been struggling before this crisis took place." That's key to Obama's message: He was talking about the economy before the crisis; one source of his political strength in the skirmishing amid the current meltdown.

He adds that we need action "not just when there's a crisis for folks who have power and influence and can hire lobbyists."

McCain, meanwhile, tries to swing the discussion back to specific moments in his record where he departed from the fundamental deregulatory thrust of his party, reminding listeners of his warnings about Fannie and Freddie.

Those are the bare outlines of the political debate and of each candidate's political imperatives on the economy.

Jim Lehrer was expected to ask questions about the economy tonight, despite it being national security night, by asking about the economy in a national security context.

Lehrer does it right out of the gate, citing Dwight Eisenhower's assertion that the foundation of strong national security is a strong economy.

"At this very moment tonight, where do you stand on the financial recovery plan?" Lehrer asked.

It's a good opening question: Will McCain actually answer it?

With Barack Obama and John McCain finally meeting face to face tonight for their first debate, here's a quick explanation of the debate rules.

Moderator Jim Lehrer will initially ask one of the candidates a question, then give two minutes to respond. The other candidate then gets to give his own (pre-packaged) response -- then the fun part begins.

This debate will feature an open-ended discussion period of five minutes for each question, in which the candidates will argue back and forth. While the candidates have obviously rehearsed heavily for this aspect, there are simply too many variables of how the other man might respond to fully predict. As such, this experiment could give us some opportunities for real spontaneity -- and gaffes, too.

The debate's predetermined subject is foreign policy, but Lehrer is expected to shift on to the economy from time to time. "I am not restrained from asking questions about the financial crisis," Lehrer said in an e-mail to the New York Times. "Stay tuned!" Meanwhile, Obama's lawyer says that economic questions are likely to be asked in the context of foreign policy.

We'll be blogging the debate right here at Election Central.

On the eve of the debate, some sad news:

Sen. Edward Kennedy, who has been in treatment for brain cancer, was taken to a hospital near his Cape Cod vacation home after complaining of feeling ill.

Barnstable police Sgt. Ben Baxter said the 911 call from the Kennedy compound in Hyannis Port came at about 5:10 p.m. on Friday.

Baxter said Kennedy was then taken by ambulance to Cape Cod Hospital. Baxter said Kennedy was "alert and responsive" during the trip.

Representatives of Kennedy and the hospital did not immediately return calls for comment.

Late Update: Here's a statement from Kennedy's office:

"Senator Kennedy experienced a mild seizure at home in Hyannis Port today and was taken to Cape Cod Hospital for examination. Doctors believe the incident was triggered by a change in medication. Senator Kennedy will return home tonight and looks forward to watching the debate."

With the debate about to start, it's worth reading former Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson's interesting post diagnosing the McCain campaign's problems.

Wolfson argues that McCain's campaign suspension shows that McCain has been reduced to chasing momentary news-cycle victories, rather than building an effective long term case. Wolfson notes that even if McCain won a short-term victory with the suspension stunt (which itself is debatable), McCain ended up "boxed in by his pledge."

"The Obama campaign gets up every day and asks themselves how they can make the case for change vs more of the same, just as they did yesterday, and they will do tomorrow," Wolfson argues. "The McCain campaign wakes up and figures out how to try to win the day."

Our take: However bad the possibility might have looked that McCain would have to choose between not showing at the debate and breaking his pledge, the McCain team had no choice but to take the suspension gamble.

The McCain campaign's macro-message had primarily been about a contrast of biography and character: McCain's war heroism renders him more deserving of, and more prepared for, the presidency than Obama, with his inexperience, preening self-regard, and untested character.

But then the economic crisis hit, and it jolted the electorate into a sharp focus on the issues and on the two mens' competing agendas.

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The economy continues to dominate the down-ticket races, and it's looking more and more like Dems stand to make significant gains off the crisis.

Cook Report: Dems Could Potentially Reach 60 Senate Seats
Charlie Cook writes in his latest column that although it remains a long-shot, the chances have gone up considerably for Democrats to reach 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. "Today, holding its losses down to four seats would be manna from heaven for the GOP," Cook writes. "Party leaders would take a five- or six-seat loss in stride, given the circumstances."

Dem Ad: Social Security Privatization A Roller-Coaster Ride On Wall St.
Check out this ad from the DCCC, reminding voters that GOP candidates who want to invest Social Security funds in the stock market don't exactly have a strong case in light of the current financial crisis. This one targets Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican nominee for an open GOP-held seat in Missouri:

"But Luetkemeyer supports privatizing Social Security, risking your retirement on the Wall St. roller-coaster," the announcer says, as the camera progresses to the top of a roller-coaster. "So if you or a loved one plan to depend on Social Security, hold on tight."

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In a development that could have a significant impact on the presidential race, the rise in registered Democrats has far outpaced Republican registration in many key swing states, giving Dems a clear registration advantage in a lot of them, while wiping away one-time GOP registration advantages in a couple others.

We compiled these registration numbers mainly from the secretaries of state in the battlegrounds -- and they are are striking. You can view them in our chart below.

Of the dozen or so most closely contested states in this election, seven of the secretaries' offices keep tallies of their registration numbers, broken down by party. The upshot: Of those seven states, four have seen big spikes in Dem registration while GOP registration has gone up by significantly less or has dropped.

In a fifth state, the number of Dems has gone up by a modest amount while the number of Republicans has fallen sharply. Dems now lead in registration numbers in all five of those states, in some by significant margins.

Meanwhile, in the sixth and seventh states, Dem gains and GOP losses have effectively erased the GOP's once sizable registration edge.

Obama advisers think the numbers are a reflection of the intense interest this year and the historical nature of this campaign. "We think it's going to have a significant impact," Obama national field director Jon Carson tells me. "It's a continuation of what we saw in the primaries, which is a surge of people participating in the process in general. The base level of that is registration, and what you see in the numbers is that the majority of the surge is on our side."

Here's the breakdown in the seven states, as supplied by their secretaries of states and compared to 2004...

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Ben Smith reports that the Republican National Committee is going to sink some six-figure advertising cash into Indiana, a state where Obama's been making a heavy play.

With its own polling presumably confirming public polls showing Obama seriously competitive in Indiana, which hasn't gone Democratic since 1964, the Republicans are being stretched thinner than they would like. Meanwhile, elements of Obama's attempt to expand the map appear to be succeeding, at least by a preliminary measure: He's making the GOP spend money.

One other quick point: The McCain bounce after the convention and the Palin announcement appeared to manifest itself by shrinking the map: Obama pulled staff out of North Dakota, and pulled his ads in Georgia. But, in another measure of how quickly the McCain bounce evaporated amid the economic meltdown, to be replaced by an Obama surge, we're seeing very real signs that the map has expanded again. Obama's gaining in Virginia, has taken the lead in Colorado, and the Repubs are panicked about Indiana.

Not a bad place to be as we head into the debates.

Late Update: Our own poll tracker shows that Obama has actually taken the lead in Colorado. I've edited the above to reflect that.

MSNBC has notified an independent group running an ad questioning John McCain's health that it will no longer air the spot, only a half day after Fox's Bill O'Reilly attacked NBC's corporate bosses on the air over the ad, the group tells me.

The spot, which has been running on MSNBC since yesterday, is the work of Brave New PAC and Democracy For America, which is headed up by Howard Dean's brother. It demands that McCain release his medical records and quotes doctors saying that McCain's age and bouts with cancer should raise concern, with one saying that another round of cancer would "profoundly impact his capacity to lead."

MSNBC informed the ad buyer for the two PACS today at around noon eastern time that the network was yanking the spot, Brave New PAC spokesperson Leighton Woodhouse tells me. The network said that the reason for their decision was "viewer complaints," Woodhouse says.

The spot is hard hitting, controversial, and goes where few others will go -- the Obama campaign was quick to point out that it has nothing to do with the spot. But it isn't hate speech, and MSNBC didn't question the ad's accuracy, Woodhouse claims.

MSNBC's decision comes after Bill O'Reilly unleashed an on-air tirade over the ad last night, saying the ad was put out by "two despicable human beings," a reference to Dean and Robert Greenwald of Brave New Films.

O'Reilly also blasted Jeffrey Immelt, the head of General Electric, which owns NBC, and top NBC exec Jeff Zucker. "They should be ashamed, but they are anything but," O'Reilly said.

"It's outrageous that MSNBC is choosing to stifle a message about the very real health risks John McCain faces, risks that the McCain campaign has done its best to conceal by refusing full, public disclosure of his medical records," Woodhouse says. "Over 2,500 degreed medical professionals stand behind the message in this advertisement. Is MSNBC backing down because of intimidation from FOX?"

A call to MSNBC wasn't immediately returned.

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, containing the first full day of sampling since John McCain's pseudo-suspension -- and Barack Obama is extending his lead:

• Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, the candidates were tied 46%-46%.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to an Obama lead yesterday of 49%-46%.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 47%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-43%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.9%-44.5%, almost double his margin from yesterday's 47.7%-45.3%.

Since John McCain began his quasi-suspension to deal with the economic crisis, we've had one new day of data for these three-day tracking polls. And that day doesn't appear to have treated him well.

In a sign that John McCain's political gambit over the last couple days may be hurting him in key states, a new poll finds him falling behind Barack Obama in the crucial swing state of Virginia.

The new numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±4% margin of error. The poll was conducted entirely on Thursday, in the middle of McCain's fake suspension of his campaign and the possibility of him skipping the first debate. In a poll taken on Sunday, McCain had a 50%-48% lead.

The internals show that 52% of Virginia voters consider the economy to be the most important issue of the election -- and the state's electorate as a whole views Obama as better on the economy by a 50%-44% margin.

Barack Obama had some tough words for McCain yesterday, decrying the injection of presidential politics into the bailout discussions. But today, with the general mood swinging in the direction of optimism, Obama moderated the criticism of his opponent.

Politico has the remarks Obama made a little while ago on his campaign plane:

"I am optimistic that we can get something done," Obama said aboard his campaign plane in Washington before taking off for Mississippi. "I think there is real progress being made this morning and last night. I think it is important that the markets seem to be staying relatively calm at this point.

"At this point, my strong sense is that the best thing I can do rather than inject presidential politics into these delicate negotiations is to go to down to Mississippi, and explain to the American people what is going on and my vision for leading the country over the next four years," Obama continued.

[...]

Asked if the White House meeting was a mistake, Obama said: "I'm not sure it was as productive as it could have been. But I think at this point it is important to move forward."

With the spin war now underway in earnest over whether McCain deserves credit for galvanizing talks or blame for endangering them in order to rescue his campaign, Obama is obviously not the ideal messenger for the latter point, which can be left to others.

John McCain will attend the debate. From his campaign:

Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.

The justification: There has been "significant progress" and there is now a "framework" for all the parties to be represented at the negotiating table. Also: The campaign suspension that never actually happened is now over.

Full McCain statement after the jump.

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In yet another sign of Barack Obama's surge in the polls, CQ has upgraded their ratings for him in three states that have been cornerstones of the Obama campaign's strategy to expand the electoral map into states where Dems don't usually compete:

• Indiana: Previously rated "Republican Favored," now "Leans Republican." The last time this state voted Democratic was in the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide.

• North Carolina: Previously rated "Republican Favored," now "Leans Republican." The last time this state voted Democratic was 1976, when Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son.

• Virginia: Previously rated "Leans Republican," is now "No Clear Favorite." Like Indiana, the last time this state voted Dem was in 1964.

From CQ's analysis: "Though the 'bounce' in polls enjoyed by Republican candidate John McCain following his nominating convention early this month briefly called this strategy into doubt, Obama's recent resurgence to a lead in most national polls -- and gains in many state polls -- has revived his party's hopes of winning in states lost by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004."

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: With GOPers scrambling to staunch the political bleeding amid the meltdown, all signs point to Dems gaining in multiple down-ticket races.

Bachmann Blames Loans To Minorities For Financial Crisis
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is laying the blame for the financial crisis on loans made to minorities, saying in a hearing that the Clinton Administration encouraged the granting of mortgages "on the basis of race and often on little else." Roll Call reports that Bachmann stepped back from her comment just a bit, saying that the policies were "well-intentioned."

Cheney Cancels Campaign Stop For House Candidate, Citing Economic Crisis
Vice President Cheney has canceled a scheduled campaign stop today for Ed Tinsley, the Republican nominee or an open GOP-held House seat in New Mexico, and is instead staying in Washington to assist in negotiations on the financial bailout.

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We'd been wondering what justification the McCain campaign was going to hatch in order to make it possible for him to attend tonight's debate despite having suggested he'd be closing down his campaign until the bailout package is resolved.

And here's a hint, from top McCain ally Lindsey Graham this morning on The Today Show:

"What's more important than anything that when we go to Mississippi tonight, both candidates can say that the Congress is working, back in business, that we have an outline or proposal that will protect the taxpayer and save the country from financial Pearl Harbor, as Warren Buffet called it. We are not there yet, but we will get there."

And so the bar has been lowered to make it possible for McCain to go. The justification: McCain rode into Washington and lit a fire under Congress' collective posterior, and with that business done, he can attend tonight's debate.

The last thing you need is more evidence that McCain's campaigns suspension is a big sham. But I want to revisit what we reported last night: In particular, Obama spokesperson Bill Burton tells us that the McCain campaign is instructing TV stations to start running his ads again on Saturday.

This info -- which is presumably based on what Obama's media buyers are hearing from the stations -- seems pretty important. After all, McCain had said he would suspend his campaign until the bailout debate is resolved. McCain, of course, has no way of knowing if it'll be resolved by Saturday, but his campaign is apparently resuming his ad campaign anyway.

This would seem to be the clearest illustration yet that McCain's "suspension" qualifies as one of the silliest stunts ever attempted in presidential politics. If McCain can run ads on Saturday morning, whether or not the bailout package is agreed upon, what conceivable justification is there for not debating 12 hours earlier?

Tonight: The Debate
The first presidential debate is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET tonight at the University of Mississippi. Barack Obama will be showing up, while John McCain has not committed to coming yet. McCain will probably show up in the end, but at this point the possibility can't be entirely discounted that Obama will have the stage all to himself at Ole Miss.

Candidates In DC Today, Working On Bailout
The presidential nominees are in Washington today, as negotiations drag on for the Wall St. bailout, before Barack Obama and perhaps John McCain leave for a debate in Mississippi. It is not clear if the impasses that derailed a deal last night will be resolved today in such a manner as to reach the main goal: That some kind of deal be passed with the support of a majority of both parties.

Biden Blames GOP -- And Possibly McCain -- For Bailout Failure
Joe Biden told donors at a fundraiser last night that the Republicans were to blame for the failure of the bailout talks, singling out JOhn McCain. "We were going to all put this behind us and then I'm told that things changed," Biden said, "that John McCain landed about four o'clock and all of a sudden -- I don't know what the reason -- but some of the House Republicans decided that this, this wasn't going to go forward, at least not right away."

Poll: McCain's Lead Slips In Florida
The new Rasmussen poll of Florida gives John McCain a bare lead of 48%-47%, within the ±4% margin of error. The previous poll, conducted Sunday night, had put him ahead by a 51%-46% margin.

Polls: Tight Race In Missouri, McCain Narrowly Ahead
A new Research 2000 poll gives John McCain a 47%-46% lead in the perennial swing state of Missouri, down slightly from a 49%-45% lead from a poll conducted last week. Meanwhile, SurveyUSA gives McCain a 48%-46% lead, compared to a 49%-44% lead from two months ago.

Polls: Obama Taking Narrow Lead In New Hampshire
A new Research 2000 poll gives Barack Obama a 48%-44% lead in New Hampshire, within the ±4% margin of error. And a Strategic Vision (R) poll gives Obama a bare one-point edge of 46%-45%. John McCain had previously been leading in the preponderance of polls here.

So how long is the McCain campaign really yanking its ads for amid McCain's "suspension" of his campaign to deal with the financial crisis?

Well, until Saturday, it appears -- whether or not the financial crisis is resolved.

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton tells us that the McCain campaign is specifically instructing TV stations to start re-airing McCain's ads on Saturday.

The Obama camp would presumably be getting such info from its own media buyers, who are in touch regularly with the TV stations.

So it looks like the McCain camp's yanking of ads is a charade. Or maybe McCain knows in advance somehow that we'll all have fixed on a solution to the crisis by Saturday?

The financial meltdown, and McCain's campaign "suspension," have resulted in one advantage for McCain: They've reduced the focus on Sarah Palin. But there's plenty of Palin palaver out there today.

Her latest, during her interview with Katie Couric tonight, was to apparently say that the United States can't second guess anything Israel does under the rubric of "security efforts." From CBS' transcript...

COURIC: You recently said three times that you would never, quote, "second guess Israel if that country decided to attack Iran." Why not?

PALIN: We shouldn't second guess Israel's security efforts because we cannot ever afford to send a message that we would allow a second Holocaust, for one. Israel has got to have the opportunity and the ability to protect itself. They are our closest ally in the Mideast. We need them. They need us. And we shouldn't second guess their efforts.

COURIC: You don't think the United States is within its rights to express its position to Israel? And if that means second-guessing or discussing an option?

PALIN: No, also ... we need to express our rights and our concerns and...

COURIC: But you said never second guess them.

PALIN: We don't have to second-guess what their efforts would be if they believe ... that it is in their country and their allies, including us, all of our best interests to fight against a regime, especially Iran, who would seek to wipe them off the face of the earth. It is obvious to me who the good guys are in this one and who the bad guys are...

It's very hard to know exactly what Palin said here, as usual. But it seems pretty clear that she said "no" when asked whether the U.S. has the right to second guess anything Israel does.

But again, it's pretty close to impossible to work out exactly what she was saying.

Late Update: Here's the video:

John McCain is doing a round of network news interviews tonight (how that gels with the suspension of his campaign is a question for the ages). And in his interview with ABC News' Charlie Gibson, McCain places the blame for the public pressure on them to go through with their debate squarely on...Barack Obama.

From the transcript:

GIBSON: Do we have a debate tomorrow night?

MCCAIN: Well I'm hopeful, very hopeful that we can. I believe that it's very possible that we can get an agreement so that --- in time for me to fly to Mississippi. I understand that there is a lot of attention on this but I also wish Senator Obama had agreed to ten or more town hall meetings that I had asked him to attend with me. Wouldn't be quite that much urgency if he agreed to do that, instead he refused to do it.

Shorter McCain: My latest political stunt would be working better right now if Obama had gone for my earlier political stunt.

Seriously, what will McCain come up with as a justification for showing up tomorrow? No one really expects him not to show, right?

Survey USA, which did some snap polling yesterday finding big majorities think the debate and campaign should proceed, had another crack at it today, after news of McCain's campaign "suspension" had really sunken in.

Their finding? Huge majorities still want the debate and campaign to proceed:

* 3 of 4 Americans say the Friday debate should be held on Friday.

* 23% today Thursday say the debate should be postponed, up from 10% yesterday.

* 3 of 4 Americans say presidential campaigning should continue. (Of the three-fourths who say the campaign should continue, many say it should refocus, which doesn't really change the significance of the finding much.)

* Just 16% say presidential campaigning should be suspended, largely unchanged from Wednesday.

A couple of very interesting other tidbits. The slight movement upwards in those favoring postponement of the debate is driven largely by Republicans who have since learned that that's what McCain wants, the poll says.

And the number who have "no confidence" in McCain's ability to "lead during these economic times"? Fifty percent. Only 43% say that about Obama. This is not a question that McCain, who's sold himself as more prepared to handle a crisis, wants to be cracking 50% on.

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: More polls show that the Democrats have a very good chance of picking up some tough seats, thanks to the economic crisis and anti-incumbent fervor -- but they might also lose a few of their own.

Poll: Dems' New Hampshire House Seats in Danger
A new Univ. of New Hampshire poll shows that former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) is leading incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) by a 45%-42% margin, in his comeback attempt after she defeated him two years ago. In the state's other district, freshman Rep. Paul Hodes (D) is leading his challenger Jennifer Horn (R) by a 38%-33% margin, with a very high undecided number that should be of serious concern to the incumbent.

Poll: Alaska Senate Race Close, House Race Getting Closer
A new Ivan Moore poll of Alaska shows challenger Mark Begich (D) leading incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens (R) by a 48%-46% margin, compared to 49%-46% three weeks ago. The same poll shows Ethan Berkowitz (D) losing his once 17-point lead over incumbent Rep. Don Young (R) from just three weeks ago to now just a 49%-44% lead.

Read more »

If two new polls are any indication, all the lying and adver-sleazements coming out of the McCain campaign could be starting to take a toll on his maverick straight-talker image.

Some advance numbers from a new New York Times poll tell the story.

Fifty-three percent say McCain is attacking the other candidate, versus only 35% who say that Obama is the attacker. Meanwhile. only 38% say McCain is explaining what he would do as president, while 56% say that about Obama.

Obama is also winning among independents on these questions: Forty-four percent of them say McCain is attacking Obama, while only 36% of them say Obama's attacking.

Separately, Steve Benen has a nice catch from the new Washington Post poll. Obama has a double digit lead on the question of which candidate is seen as "more honest and trustworthy," 47%-36%. Interestingly, this is quite a shift: The two candidates were roughly tied on this question in July and August.

The McCain campaign gambled that it could take the campaign to unprecedented heights of dishonesty, no matter what the press said about them, without it dragging him off the pedestal he's been placed on by a decade or more of glowing media coverage. Maybe not so much. We'll see.

Here's that awkward moment from today when Sarah Palin refused to answer a reporter's question about whether she supports the re-election of Alaska's indicted Sen. Ted Stevens or the scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young:

"Ted Stevens' trial started a couple days ago. We'll see where that goes," Palin said. When she was asked again whether she would vote for Stevens and Young, Palin simply turned away and took another reporter's question.

Palin is in a real bind here. She can't say she doesn't support the re-election of her state's GOP members of Congress -- she's the Republican nominee for vice president. On the other hand, saying she does support these mucky pork-dealers would really damage the brand that the McCain campaign has manufactured for her as a supposed anti-pork ethics crusader.

Not that it really matters anymore, but here's the latest installment, courtesy of HuffPo:

The Huffington Post called up 15 McCain-Palin and McCain Victory Committee headquarters in various battleground states. Not one said that it was temporarily halting operations because of the supposed "suspension" in the campaign. Several, in fact, enthusiastically declared the continuation of their work. Others hadn't even heard that the candidate for whom they were devoting their time had officially stopped campaigning.

Related question: Why does MSNBC have a chyron saying McCain suspended his campaign when the network itself had a McCain adviser on attacking Obama today?

CBS News has just posted video of a chunk of Katie Couric's interview with Sarah Palin that will air tonight. It's indescribable. That's not meant as snark. Just try to describe the part where she explains why her experience as Alaska governor gives her foreign policy and national security cred:

COURIC: Well, explain to me why that enhances your foreign policy credentials?

PALIN: Well, it certainly does because our next door neighbors are foreign countries. they're in the state that i am the executive of. And there in Russia --

COURIC: Have you ever been involved with any negotiations for example, with the Russians?

PALIN: We have trade missions back and forth. We do -- it's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia -- as Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where do they go?

It's Alaska, It's right over the border. It is from Alaska, that we send those out to make sure an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state.

Anyone know what this means? Again, that's not snark. Never mind the image of Putin rearing his head as he floats into Alaskan airspace. Is she saying that American spies who keep an eye on Russia take off from Alaska? And what does that have to do with being Governor of the state?

What is the woman talking about?

Late Update: Here's the video:

Though the McCain campaign announced yesterday that it's pulling all its ads, in reality the logistical challenges of doing that are so daunting that it's unlikely all of McCain's ads will be off the air until the end of today -- by which time it might not end up making much of a difference in the first place.

Evan Tracey, who tracks national ad buys for the Campaign Media Analysis Group, estimates that it'll take until tonight before "95 percent" of McCain's ads are down, and even then McCain spots will still continue to run in markets here and there around the country.

With Congressional leaders announcing moments ago that they have an agreement in principle to pass a bailout package, the McCain campaign could end up telling its stations to air his spots tomorrow, meaning that his decision to unilaterally disarm might not really have amounted to a setback for him in any meaningful sense.

"It's not as easy as it sounds -- you can't just decree that all stations stop airing your ads," Tracey tells me. "McCain has been running roughly 2.600 ads a day. You're talking about four to six stations in every media market, six markets per state, with ads in 12 states."

The reality is that closing down a modern campaign's advertising might entail having your ad buyers make dozens of calls to different stations around the country, some of which are small and technologically backward and might be slow about pulling the spots at any rate. This explains why many readers have been reporting to us and other Web sites that they've seen McCain's ads still running.

Tracey stressed that what he's hearing from stations confirms that the McCain campaign is in fact working hard to pull its ads, and adds that this could conceivably hamper McCain politically. "They are legitimately out there trying to pull their spots with vigor," Tracey said. "He is basically going to be drawing down in very important media markets."

Still, if a deal is reached today, which looks increasingly likely, and the campaign instructs its buyers to tell stations to go back up tomorrow, McCain's unilateral disarmament might not amount to quite the act of self-sacrifice it was intended to seem.

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with Barack Obama in a narrow lead over John McCain:

• Gallup: Tied Obama 46%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 47%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-47%.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-42%.

• Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-44%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 47.7%-45.3%, down just slightly from his lead yesterday of 48.0%-44.9%.

One thing to keep in mind is that the vast majority of the polling here was conducted before John McCain called for suspending the campaign and postponing Friday's debate. It'll be another day or two before we get any meaningful numbers that reflect the reactions to that event. And by that time, we'll be waiting on yet more polls to tell us about the impact of the presidential debate and the financial bailout negotiations.

For their part, Gallup's analysis said the polling on Wednesday night did not show a significant difference.

McCain's suspension of his campaign apparently doesn't apply to his own advisers.

Despite McCain's claim that he's put his campaign on hold, two of them directly attacked Barack Obama in political terms on television this morning.

On Fox about an hour ago, McCain adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer was asked about Obama's suggestion that the bailout deal appeared to be adopting some of his suggestions.

"We don't want to focus too much on that right now because we want there to be a resolution," Pfotenhauer said, a bit later adding:

"But this is maybe perhaps part of the pattern that we've seen before where Senator Obama would claim that the housing bill came out of his committe--and he didn't even sit on the committee. or that the stimulus package was his package and even his democratic leader said that it wasn't."

So McCain's adviser accuses Obama of falsely taking credit for stuff. Does that count as running a campaign?

Meanwhile, a few minutes ago on Fox, McCain spokesperson Tucker Bounds was asked whether there would be a debate on Friday.

Read more »

Barack Obama is not stopping his campaign activities like John McCain, and is instead trying to seize the campaign narrative on the economy with this new ad blasting policies of deregulation and tax cuts -- though any direct mention of John McCain is now missing.

The ad, airing in targeted states, has Obama speaking directly to the camera for a full minute:

"For eight years we've been told that the way to a stronger economy was to give huge tax breaks to corporations and the wealthiest," Obama says. "Cut oversight on Wall Street. And somehow all Americans would benefit."

"Well now we know the truth. Instead of prosperity trickling down, pain has trickled up. We need to change direction. Now."

It's interesting here that Obama isn't directly attacking John McCain, as past ads have done when talking about the economy -- a concession of sorts to McCain's campaign suspension. A harder, direct attack might have played into McCain's attempt to play the statesman in all this.

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems are hammering away at Republicans over the financial crisis, raising questions on everything from regulation to the potential impact on Social Security -- and it may be working.

Dems Blast Sununu For Anti-Regulation History
New Hampshire Democrats are hitting Sen. John Sununu (R) on the market crisis, circulating to local media tapes of Sununu in 2006 and 2007, praising hedge funds and badmouthing regulation of the financial markets:

Dems Keep Up Spending On House Race Attack Ads
The DCCC spent $1.8 million on a round of attacks against GOP candidates in last night's FEC filings, covering 20 races in 14 states. Most signifiant is the spending of over $450,000 in three Ohio races. Here's one of those ads:

Read more »

Barack Obama, speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative, offered a read on the politics of the bailout that was strikingly at odds with McCain's read earlier this morning. From Obama's prepared remarks:

Congressional leaders have made progress in their negotiations, and appear close to a deal that would include these principles. President Bush addressed some of these issues last night, and I'm pleased that Senator McCain has decided to embrace them too. Now is a time to come together -- Democrats and Republicans -- in a spirit of cooperation on behalf of the American people.

Later today, I'll be traveling to Washington to offer my help in getting this deal done. Then, I'll travel to Oxford on Friday for the first of our presidential debates. Our election is in 40 days. Our economy is in crisis, and our nation is fighting two wars abroad. The American people deserve to hear directly from myself and Senator McCain about how we intend to lead our country. The times are too serious to put our campaign on hold, or to ignore the full range of issues that the next President will face.

Obama: Congressional leaders have made progress (without my help!); a deal is near; and I'll offer whatever assistance I can today.

McCain: The deal is dead and only I can revive it.

We've finally gotten to speak with the people behind the mass distribution of Obsession, a DVD warning viewers of the threats of radical Islam. And they're actually claiming that their mailing of the DVD to millions of households in swing states, and paying to have it inserted in local papers in places like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, is not an attempt to sway voters in swing states.

And get this: They're saying the swing-state focus is simply an effort to get the attention of reporters in swing states, because the media is heavily focused on swing states and if they distributed the DVD in non-swing states it wouldn't get any attention.

The movie is being distributed by Clarion Fund, a right-wing group founded by filmmaker Raphael Shore, in partnership with the Endowment for Middle East Truth. Since these organizations are 501(c)(3) non-profits, it would be illegal for them to use the DVD as an express effort to win people's votes -- but they can embark on educational campaigns.

Nonetheless, this "educational campaign" -- which would seem to be helpful to John McCain -- is heavily focused on swing states. Why?

"If we were to distribute only in Hawaii and Maine, the press would be like, 'Look we're in Pennsylvania, we're in Florida, we're not covering something in Hawaii now,'" said Gregory Ross, Clarion Fund spokesman, in an interview with Election Central.

Ross explained. "So to capture the press and get interviews just like you're calling me, that why we're sending it to the swing states."

"We do not consider this electioneering," Ross added, "because we're not telling anyone how to vote."

Still, Ross appeared to accidentally concede that politics might be behind the campaign.

In a reference to the Endowment for Middle East Truth, which is helping push the DVD, Ross said: "They use our movie Obsession as a vehicle to help foster political -- well I should say, discussion in general."

Read more »

From John McCain's speech today at the Clinton Global Initiative:

I cannot carry on a campaign as though this dangerous situation had not occurred, or as though a solution were at hand, which it clearly is not. As of this morning I suspended my political campaign...

It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration's proposal to meet the crisis. I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time. So I am returning to Washington to seek five fundamental improvements to this critical legislation.

But as the Obama campaign was quick to note, the Associated Press says a deal is imminent, and other press reports this morning indicate that the negotiations have progressed considerably.

Could it be that the fate of civilization as we know it doesn't hinge entirely on McCain's heroic return to D.C.?

MoveOn Ad Blames McCain's "Friends" For Economic Crisis
In a sign that this campaign is certainly not being put on hold as John McCain would like, MoveOn has this funny new one-minute ad on national cable, casting the blame for the market crisis squarely on John McCain and those folks he'd call "my friends" for the economic crisis -- folks like Phil Gramm, Rick Davis and George W. Bush:

"Main St. giving Wall St. $700 billion and getting nothing in return -- it's outrageous!" the announcer says. "Americans shouldn't have to foot the bill for a mistake that John McCain and his friends made."

Another Poll Gives Obama Huge Lead On The Economy
The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll puts in perspective just how precarious the economic situation is for John McCain, with Barack Obama being trusted more on the economy by a 46%-32% margin. Overall, Obama leads 49%-45% in the horse race, with a ±3% margin of error -- meaning it is quite likely that the economy is what is making the difference and putting Obama ahead at this point.

Obama And McCain To Address Clinton Global Initiative
Both Barack Obama and John McCain will be addressing the Clinton Global initiative this morning, Bill Clinton's humanitarian organization, before heading back to Washington for the bipartisan meeting with President Bush to attempt to resolve the financial crisis. McCain is addressing the Initiative in person in New York, while Obama is appearing via satellite from Florida.

Joe Biden Still On The Trail
Joe Biden is in Pennsylvania today, defying the McCain campaign's request that he and Barack Obama stop campaigning. Biden has an event at 10:30 a.m. ET in Greensburg, and another at 2:30 p.m. ET in Wilkes-Barre.

Poll: Obama Edges McCain In North Carolina
In another very bad poll number for John McCain, a new Rasmussen poll gives Barack Obama a narrow lead in North Carolina, a Republican-leaning Southern state that hasn't voted Dem president since 1976. The numbers: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the ±4.5% margin of error.

Poll: Obama Up By Six In Wisconsin
A new Research 2000 poll in Wisconsin gives Barack Obama a healthy lead of 49%-43% in this swing state, with a ±4% margin of error. Wisconsin voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry, but only by extremely narrow margins, and it is perennially on the GOP's target list.

Huckabee Comes Out Against Bailout
In a display of grassroots GOP opposition to the proposed Wall St. bailout, Mike Huckabee has sent out a scathing e-mail to his supporter list, opposing the bailout and the leaders who are pushing it: "Frankly, I'm disappointed and disgusted with my own Republican party as I watch them attempt to strong-arm a bailout of some of America's biggest corporations by asking the taxpayers to suck up the staggering results of the hubris, greed, and arrogance of those who sought to make a quick buck by throwing the dice."

Right-Wing Pastors To Challenge Tax Laws, Endorse Candidates This Sunday
A coalition of right-wing churches is stepping up its challenge to the ban on tax-exempt churches endorsing political candidates, with pastors in 22 states set to give political sermons this Sunday. "I'm going to talk about the un-biblical stands that Barack Obama takes. Nobody who follows the Bible can vote for him," said Rev. Wiley S. Drake of First Southern Baptist Church in Buena Park, California.

Here it is: The joint statement about the crisis that the Obama and McCain campaigns have apparently been negotiating all day:

"The American people are facing a moment of economic crisis. No matter how this began, we all have a responsibility to work through it and restore confidence in our economy. The jobs, savings, and prosperity of the American people are at stake.

"Now is a time to come together - Democrats and Republicans - in a spirit of cooperation for the sake of the American people. The plan that has been submitted to Congress by the Bush Administration is flawed, but the effort to protect the American economy must not fail.

"This is a time to rise above politics for the good of the country. We cannot risk an economic catastrophe. Now is our chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country."

It says nothing, of course. More confirmation that the talk about bi-partisan cooperation to deal with the crisis is just a gesture, and that we should get down to the dirty business of debating who actually has the better ideas about how to get us out of the crisis.

CBS News had a bit of bad luck today: McCain's call for a suspension of the campaign is eclipsing the news the network had hoped to make with Katie Couric's interview of Sarah Palin, set to air tonight.

The network has now sent out another advance quote from the interview, in which Palin appears to suggest that the American people are only looking to McCain for leadership on the crisis, and not to Obama...

PALIN: The interesting thing in the last couple of days that I have seen is that Americans are waiting to see what John McCain will do on this proposal. They're not waiting to see what Barack Obama is going to do. Is he going to do this and see what way the political wind's blowing. They're waiting to see if John McCain will be able to see these amendments implemented in Paulson's proposal.

It seems worth pointing out that every national poll that has asked voters which candidate is more capable of handling the current crisis has favored Obama by significant margins.

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: National Democrats are spending big, but a new round of polling could give the GOP some hope in key races.

Lieberman Defends GOPer Norm Coleman From Dem Attacks, Says Iraq War Had Proper Oversight
Joe Lieberman has put out a statement on behalf of Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), disputing Al Franken's attack that Coleman didn't do enough to provide oversight over Iraq contracts while he chaired an important subcommittee. "It is simply untrue, and irresponsible, to suggest that while Norm Coleman was investigating corruption here at home, that investigations in Iraq were not going on," Lieberman wrote.

National Dems Shell Out Big Bucks For Attack Ads Today
The DCCC has spent over $1.5 million today for their new wave of attack ads, according to the FEC newest filings. Money is being spent in 14 races across ten states, most notably $310,000 for three seats in John McCain's home state of Arizona. Here's one of those ads, targeting the Republican challenger against freshman Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ):

Read more »

Readers familiar with Josh's Republican Bitch-Slap Theory of electoral politics will recognize that Obama has thus far handled McCain's call for a suspension of the debate in precisely the right way.

McCain's real goal here was to be seen as the one setting the agenda and driving the action. His goal was to be seen ordering Obama to jump and getting him to, well, jump.

Obama didn't jump.

Had Obama agreed to a suspension of the debate, McCain would have achieved precisely what he wanted. He'd be perceived as the one who'd forced a suspension of campaign activity and brought everyone together in a show of temporary unity in response to the crisis.

Plus, by agreeing to the suspension, Obama would have legitimized a stunt so transparent that it's astonishing that McCain was able to deliver his statement on TV without dissolving into hysterical laughter.

But Obama didn't jump. And no jump=no bitch slap.

Late Update: A number of you rightly point out that part of what's key here is that Obama did some slapping of his own, by pointing out that we can do two things at once here.

Also: To be clear, I'm not arguing that McCain won't be able to somehow use Obama's refusal to suspend the debate in future attacks and ads or whatever. Of course he will. My point was that agreeing to McCain's bogus suspension call would have been the worst possible move.

An aide to Harry Reid tells me that John McCain called Reid this afternoon, only to be told by Reid that it wouldn't be helpful if McCain came to Washington.

The aide adds that Reid read aloud to McCain the statement he just issued, in which Reid said...

"It would not be helpful at this time to have them come back during these negotiations and risk injecting presidential politics into this process or distract important talks about the future of our nation's economy. If that changes, we will call upon them. We need leadership; not a campaign photo op.

"If there were ever a time for both candidates to hold a debate before the American people about this serious challenge, it is now."

Oh, to have been on that call.

Late Update: Ben Smith makes the fair point that Reid's declaration to McCain is a bit of a shift from the message coming from the Senate leadership yesterday, which is that McCain's support would be helpful in getting a bailout passed.

It seems clear, though, that Reid was telling McCain that his return to Washington would be unhelpful specifically in the current context of his unilateral call for a suspension of the campaign, which actually risks politicizing the process more, not less.

At a press conference just now, Barack Obama rejected John McCain's demand for a suspension of the debate.

"I believe we should continue to have the debate," he just said. "I believe it makes sense for us to present ourselves to the American people."

"Obviously if it turns out that we need to be in Washington, we've both got big planes, we've painted our slogan on the side of them," Obama also said. "They can get us from Washington to Mississippi pretty quickly." The debate is set to take place in Mississippi.

Obama also said that he was blindsided by McCain's public call for a debates suspension. After describing their conversation about a possible suspension, Obama said: "I thought that this was something that he was mulling over. Apparently this was something that he was more decisive about in his own mind."

Obama described their conversation as follows: "I proposed putting out the joint statement. He concurred with that. he then also said, 'I would like us to look at suspending the campaign and pushing the debates off.' I said, 'let's put out the joint statement first, and then get our campaigns to discuss this.'" Obama said he later saw McCain announcing his plans on television.

One more time: If this version of events is true, McCain's public call for a suspension was anything but apolitical. If McCain had truly intended to keep this apolitical, he would have asked Obama to jointly suspend the debates, made his own full intentions clear, and waited for Obama's private and definitive answer before going public.

McCain campaign spokesperson Brian Rogers offers his chronology of the phone calls between the two candidates in a statement:

Senator Obama phoned Senator McCain at 8:30 am this morning but did not reach him. The topic of Senator Obama's call to Senator McCain was never discussed. Senator McCain was meeting with economic advisers and talking to leaders in Congress throughout the day prior to calling Senator Obama. At 2:30 pm, Senator McCain phoned Senator Obama and expressed deep concern that the plan on the table would not pass as it currently stands. He asked Senator Obama to join him in returning to Washington to lead a bipartisan effort to solve this problem.

Obama's campaign earlier said that Obama called McCain this morning "to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement." That's not contradicted by this new McCain statement.

Another point: According to the McCain campaign, he asked Obama at 2:30 PM today to "lead a bipartisan effort to solve this problem." In other words, he presumably asked Obama at 2:30 to suspend the campaign with him. Soon after McCain went public. Did he let Obama know he was going public, or did he blindside him?

This is key because if the answer is the latter, it shows that McCain's move here was all the more political. A true apolitical move on McCain's part would have been to say to Obama, "Let's suspend our campaigns. I'll await your answer before going public. If you agree, we'll go public together."

What actually happened?

Harry Reid becomes the first outside pol to issue a statement on McCain's call for a suspension of the campaign and the debate, issuing a statement saying, in effect, thanks but no thanks:

"This is a critical time for our country. While I appreciate that both candidates have signaled their willingness to help, Congress and the Administration have a process in place to reach a solution to this unprecedented financial crisis.

"I understand that the candidates are putting together a joint statement at Senator Obama's suggestion. But it would not be helpful at this time to have them come back during these negotiations and risk injecting presidential politics into this process or distract important talks about the future of our nation's economy. If that changes, we will call upon them. We need leadership; not a campaign photo op.

"If there were ever a time for both candidates to hold a debate before the American people about this serious challenge, it is now."

In a certain sense, of course, McCain's unilateral suspension of the campaign actually politicizes the whole process more, not less.

Asked how the Obama campaign will respond to McCain's call for a delay in the debate, an Obama adviser emails: "We're inclined to do the debate."

Obama will make a public statement on this shortly -- it'll be interesting to see if Obama calls on McCain to do the debate on other terms. For instance, he could invite McCain to make the debate about the economy, rather than about national security.

After all, the venue is in place, and it's hard to see how efforts to solve the crisis would be hampered by a high-profile discussion of that same crisis between the two men who each want us to make them chief stewards of the economy.

Separately, the McCain campaign confirms to me that they will in fact be taking down his ads.

In response to McCain's announcement today that he is suspending his campaign in response to the meltdown, the Obama campaign is arguing that Obama is the one who made the first suggestion to McCain that the two candidates act jointly in response to the crisis.

From Obama spokesperson Bill Burton:

At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama's call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.

This statement, however, doesn't appear to say that Obama had suggested a suspension of the campaign or that the two men discussed such a move.

McCain made his announcement of the suspension unilaterally, rather than jointly with Obama. So, did McCain really speak to Obama privately about his intention to suspend before going public with it?

John McCain will say later today in New York that he's suspending his campaign in response to the economic crisis, and is calling on Barack Obama to delay Friday's debate. From the prepared remarks just sent out by his campaign:

Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington after speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative. I have spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of my decision and have asked him to join me.

I am calling on the President to convene a meeting with the leadership from both houses of Congress, including Senator Obama and myself. It is time for both parties to come together to solve this problem.

We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved. I am directing my campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on presidential debates to delay Friday night's debate until we have taken action to address this crisis.

It's not immediately clear what this means in practice. Will all of McCain's ads come down? Will the campaign stop sending out statements? Will campaign aides all leave headquarters and turn out the lights?

More soon.

Late Update: The Obama campaign is now saying that Obama was the first to reach out to McCain to suggest joint action on the crisis.

Late Late Update: An Obama adviser tells us that he's inclined to go ahead with the debate.

CBS News has just released an advance excerpt of Katie Couric's interview with Sarah Palin, to air tonight, and in it, Palin appears to say that we may be headed for another Great Depression if Congress doesn't pass a bailout package:

COURIC: If this doesn't pass, do you think there's a risk of another Great Depression?

PALIN: Unfortunately, that is the road that America may find itself on. Not necessarily this as it's been proposed has to pass or we're gonna find ourselves in another Great Depression. But there has got to be action taken, bipartisan effort -- Congress not pointing fingers at this point at -- at one another but -- finding the solution to this -- taking action, and being serious about the reforms on Wall Street that are needed.

Palin hedges a bit here. But even so, she's saying that whatever the bailout package ends up being, not passing it risks leading to another Great Depression. That would seem to make it a bit tougher for McCain to vote against it.

The lengths the McCain campaign is going to in order to shield Sarah Palin from questioning are reaching truly comic dimensions.

Check out this nugget from the pool report, via Jonathan Martin, on John McCain and Palin's meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko:

McCain then looked around the room and gestured as if to welcome questions. The AP reporter shouted a question at Gov. Palin ("Governor, what have you learned from your meetings?") but McCain aide Brooke Buchanan intervened and shepherded everybody out of the room.

Palin looked surprised, leaned over to McCain and asked him a question, to which your pooler thinks he shook his head as if to say "No."

Palin can't even be allowed to answer a question as basic as this?

What's really sobering is that the McCain campaign continues to block Palin from answering questions even though it's now resulting in reams and reams of bad press for the McCain-Palin ticket. That suggests McCain advisers know that letting her answer even the most elementary questions in an uncontrolled environment is so dangerous that it's worth weathering the current media drubbing they're taking in order to prevent it from happening at all costs.

Has anyone pointed out that McCain has placed Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency?

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with Barack Obama holding on to a narrow lead over John McCain:

• Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, they were tied 48%-48%

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 47%-43%.

• Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-43%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.0%-44.9%, up slightly from his lead yesterday of 47.7%-45.3%.

The New York Times, under fire from the McCain camp over an earlier piece probing McCain campaign manager Rick Davis, responded today with a second piece that hits Davis very hard, reporting that Davis' lobbying firm received a monthly sum of $15,000 from Freddie Mac up until last month.

Now comes word that Davis has quietly canceled a gathering he was supposed to hold with reporters today.

Coincidence? Hard to know. But more broadly, the question is, At what point do the repeated revelations about Davis render him more of a liability to McCain than an asset?

Davis is a bit of a throwback in McCain's universe. He's been a longtime confidante to McCain; he managed McCain's 2000 insurgent campaign against George W. Bush, and isn't really a part of the new camp of hard-boiled Rove acolytes -- Steve Schmidt, etc. -- who have come in to take charge of the McCain campaign.

You have to imagine that the Schmidt camp doesn't feel particularly disposed towards rallying around Davis. That said, the Schmidt team is not disposed towards doing anything that smacks of weakness, defensiveness, or disorganization, such as pushing to cut Davis loose, and McCain won't do that in any case. Which means the revelations about Davis are likely to keep dragging McCain down.

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: GOP candidates are on the defensive on the economic crisis in a big way -- and in their fumbling efforts to respond are digging themselves in deeper and deeper.

Coleman Keeps Saying Government Could Net Huge Profit On Bailout
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is defending his bizarre statement on Monday that the proposed $700 billion bailout for Wall St. could make the government a profit of 10 or 20 times the principal. "If you buy assets at close to fire-sale prices and the market stabilizes, you'll see an improvement in assets," Coleman said -- forgetting that this bailout is structured in such a way as to specifically avoid buying assets at fire-sale prices, and the securities being bought would be unlikely to return to their hypothetical maturity valuations.

GOP Candidate's Staffer Uses Fake Name At Dem Candidate's Press Conference
The press secretary for House candidate Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has been caught calling into a press conference by Democrat Gary Trauner, using a fake name and identifying herself as a Trauner supporter so as to better asked a pointed question about the Dems' energy policies. This seat has been in GOP hands since the 1978 election, but Trauner's near-win back in 2006 makes this a very competitive race for the open race this time around.

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In a sign of alarm in the McCain camp, McCain aides are aggressively working to discredit the new ABC/Washington Post poll finding that Barack Obama is ahead of McCain nationally by 52%-43%.

The McCain camp rolled out their top pollster Bill McInturff, who argued on a conference call with reporters moments ago that the poll is an outlier whose results are skewed by lopsided party identification numbers, which showed the Democrats with a 16-point advantage over the GOP after leaners were pushed.

"It's appropriate to say politely that this one poll is an unusual outlier that does not represent where this campaign is or where it's heading as we go into the first presidential debate," McInturfff said.

McInturff noted that the self-identification margins have not been greater than five points in any of the presidential elections since Ronald Reagan was re-elected in 1984. "We don't know what it's going to be in 2008. And I wish I had the revealed wisdom of God to know what it would be," McInturff said -- but he's confident it won't be minus-16 for the GOP.

That said, McInturff did concede that party I.D. numbers were unpredictable for this fall, because voter turnout is shaping up to be higher than it's ever been in modern memory: "Historic voting models don't project to 125 million-plus people."

More polls are showing just how dramatic Obama's advantage over McCain is on the economy -- and how big his edge is on the economic meltdown in particular.

* In the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released late yesterday, registered voters see Obama as the one who would do a better job of strengthening the national economy by a 46%-32% margin. What's more, Obama leads McCain by double digits on the question of who woud be better at handling the financial crisis: 48%-35%.

That crisis number comes on top of yesterday's Pew poll finding that Obama is seen as the one who would a better job by a 47%-35% margin among U.S. adults. Pew also found that Obama leads McCain among independents by double digits on the crisis question, 44%-30%.

*In the ABC/Washington Post poll released today, registered voters see Obama as better at handling the economy by 14 points, 53%-39%. And they say he better understands people's economic problems by 24 points, 57%-33%.

What's more, the WaPo poll shows the economy and jobs rating as the single most important issue for 50% of registered voters, with terrorism and foreign policy only in the teens.

* All this comes on top of the Quinnipiac polls from yesterday showing Obama with an advantage on understanding the economy in three key swing states: 47%-41% in Colorado, 50%-38% in Michigan, and 47%-40% in Wisconsin. The two were tied 45%-45% in Minnesota. In all four of these states, majorities rate the economy as the most important issue, with Iraq and terrorism combined again in the high teens.

* The one bit of good news for McCain comes in the increasingly pivotal state of Virginia, where the new Mason-Dixon poll of Virginia shows him edging Obama on the economy by a 46%-45% margin.

McCain has repeatedly attacked Obama as failing to show leadership during the meltdown. He's tried to use the financial mess in order to transfer one of his key advantages -- the perception that he's more prepared to handle crises -- onto the economy, where Obama has long enjoyed an edge. It doesn't appear to be working.

Joe Biden is set to jump back into one of his major roles as Obama's Veep candidate -- front man for attacking McCain on foreign policy -- by giving a speech in Ohio today designed to frame the national security discussion in advance of Friday's Obama-McCain debate on that topic.

According to the prepared remarks, Biden will unleash a slashing attack on McCain, painting him as reckless, hot-headed, out of touch with basic foreign policy realities, and hell bent on deepening the hole Bush has gotten America into:

[T]ime and again, on the most critical national security issues of our time, John McCain's judgment was wrong. Right after the terrorists attacked us on 9-11, John responded by urging that we consider attacking countries other than Afghanistan, including Iraq, Iran and Syria. In the run up to the war in Iraq, John insisted that we would be greeted as liberators... that we didn't need a lot of troops... that victory was imminent.

Then, he said he wasn't worried about Afghanistan... that we would "muddle through"... and he declared Afghanistan to be "a remarkable success. In John's judgment, there is nothing to talk about with Tehran. And he has one idea for dealing with Russia: kick it out of the Group of Eight nations."

[...]

John McCain continues to insist, against all the evidence and all the facts, that Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism... and not the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan where the people who actually attacked us on 9-11 reside and are regrouping."

"John is more than wrong -- he is dangerously wrong. On a question so basic, so fundamental, so critical to our nation's security, we can't afford a Commander-in Chief so divorced from reality and from America's most basic national interests."

More prepared excerpts after the jump.

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The Freedom's Defense Fund, a right wing group with ties to Obama slime-ographer Jerome Corsi, is up in Michigan with this ad attacking Obama and starring Jeremiah Wright and his "God damn America" rant:

It's unclear how long the ad has been running, and how big the buy is, but The New York Times reports this morning that the spot is running in Macomb County, Michigan, a stronghold of white, unionized auto workers -- the latest in a wave of very targeted advertising by outside groups that appear to have been set up for the sole purpose of sliming Obama in one way or another.

The Freedom's Defense Fund, for its part, describes itself rather vaugely as devoted to the "principles of limited government" and against the "nanny state," and Corsi is a paid consultant.

Poll: Obama Ahead By Nine Points, Above 50% Mark
The new ABC/Washington Post poll has some very good news for Barack Obama, with him leading John McCain among likely voters by a 52%-43% margin, in comparison to a two-point McCain lead from right after the Republican Convention. By comparison, neither Al Gore nor John Kerry ever registered above 50% in this poll.

Obama In Florida, Biden In Ohio And Indiana
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Florida, where he has a rally scheduled for 1 p.m. ET in Dunedin. Joe Biden is set to give a major speech on foreign policy at 9 a.m. in Cincinnati, Ohio, followed by a a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Jeffersonville, Indiana.

McCain And Palin At The UN
Sarah Palin is doing her second day of meet-and-greets with foreign leaders at the United Nations, accompanied by John McCain. The question for the day is whether they'll have any more standoffs with the press over the McCain campaign's refusals to let reporters question Palin.

Good Government Group: McCain Must Fire Rick Davis Over Freddie Mac Payments
Campaign Money Watch, a non-partisan group advocating campaign finance and ethics reform, released this statement regarding the New York Times report that McCain campaign manager Rick Davis' firm remained on Freddie Mac's payroll all the way up to last month:

"John McCain's campaign manager and Freddie Mac had what amounts to a secret half a million dollar lay-a-way plan. For almost three years and as late as last month, Freddie Mac made secret, monthly payments of $15,000 to Rick Davis's firm for a no-show job, apparently in exchange for providing special access to a future McCain White House. If McCain knew about this, his presidential campaign should be in serious trouble. If he didn't know about it, he ought to fire Rick Davis immediately," said David Donnelly, Director of Campaign Money Watch. "Today's question is, what other deals are Rick Davis and the McCain campaign hiding?"

Poll: McCain Up In Virginia
A new Mason-Dixon poll for NBC News gives John McCain a 47%-44% lead in the pivotal swing state of Virginia, within the ±4% margin of error. About half the polls out there right now are putting Barack Obama ahead, and the other half John McCain, with nearly all of them within the margin of error.

Biden Garbles Depression History
In a somewhat humorous gaffe, Joe Biden said the following yesterday about the market crash: "When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed. He said, 'Look, here's what happened.'" Of course, FDR wasn't president when the market crashed -- Herbert Hoover was -- and they didn't have TV back in those days.

Local TV Anchor Gets Hate Mail Over Palin Resemblance
Cindy Michaels, a local TV news anchor in Maine who bears a striking physical resemblance to Sarah Palin, has been getting hate mail accusing her of copying Palin's fashion sense. "I'm not Sarah Palin," Michaels said, "and so to say cutting things to me just because I'm wearing my hair up and I wear a pair of glasses, there's just something a little strange about that."

In a sign that the Obama campaign is getting serious about tapping his financial advantage over McCain with six weeks to go, Obama's overall spending on TV ads has jumped 50% in the last two weeks, while McCain's has held steady -- and Obama is now outspending his rival even as he's up on the air in more states.

In the week ending Sept. 21, Obama spent $9.4 million on TV ads in roughly 15 states, up from $6.5 million in the week that ended two weeks ago, Evan Tracey, who tracks national ad buys for the Campaign Media Analysis Group, tells me. Tracey's analysis is based on fresh data he obtained this afternoon.

Obama's increased spending -- which has gone up at the rate of over 20% per week over the past three weeks -- is largely fueled by boosts in spending in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, according to Tracey.

"They're ramping up," Tracey says. "They're cranking up the volume."

In contrast to Obama's ratcheted up spending, his data shows, McCain's outlay has held steady at around $7.5 million in roughly a dozen states -- a number that Obama's expenditures have now surpassed.

Here are some of the states where Tracey's data shows that Obama's spending has jumped:

* In Florida, where the jump is perhaps most dramatic, Obama's spending has climbed to $1.9 million for the week ending on Sept. 21, from $1.2 million the week before that and $807,000 the week before that. Obama has closed in on McCain in the polls.

* In Colorado, Obama's spending has jumped 20% a week; it's at $810,000 for the week ending Sept. 21, up from $500,000 two weeks ago. Obama has edged ahead in the polls.

* In Nevada, where McCain has steadily held a very narrow lead, Obama's spending is at $500,000 a week, up from $230,000 two weeks ago.

* In Pennsylvania, where Obama has led by increasingly tight margins, the Obama camp has increased its spending 20% since last week.

Interestingly, Obama's spending has remained relatively steady in Michigan and has gone up by less dramatic margins in hotly-contested Ohio, Tracey says. Meanwhile, Obama has scaled down spending in Missouri by 40%.

The spending shifts suggest that Obama is using his financial advantage to slowly press down the gas pedal as Election Day approaches (though these numbers don't take into account spending by the party committees, which could equalize things).

"This is clearly a luxury that McCain doesn't have," Tracey says. "The trend is likely to continue through the election. This drumbeat will continue. Twenty-percent per week -- that's not by accident. That's the plan."

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems are leveraging their big financial advantage over the GOP into an extensive round of attack ads against the Republicans, in order to pick up some usually-tough seats this November.

National Dems Launch New Wave Of Attack Ads In House Races
The DCCC has launched a major TV attack ad offensive in districts across the country, some of them defending Dem-held seats but others running in GOP-held areas that are traditionally very difficult for the Dems. Ads will be running in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Here's one of the ads, running in a deep-red New Mexico district:

New York GOP Trying To Dump Candidate For Key House Seat
The race for the open seat of scandal-plagued Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) just keeps getting weirder, with Manhattan Republicans now nominating unpopular GOP nominee Bob Straniere for an open judgeship as a means of getting him to drop out of the race -- but Straniere is refusing. National Republicans feel that their chances of holding the seat could potentially improve if they can substitute Fossella himself as the new candidate, but they're not optimistic that it will actually happen.

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Both candidates held dualing press conferences today amid the meltdown, with McCain just wrapping up his first one in 40 days.

But the pressure on McCain to leave a bigger footprint today was arguably much higher. Dems have a built-in advantage on the economy. Polls are starting to show that more voters trust Obama to handle the current crisis. And McCain hasn't held a press conference in well over a month.

In his presser McCain insisted on five improvements he wants to see made to the bailout package.

"Let us be perfectly clear: a great burden is upon the American people," McCain said. "Seven hundred billion dollars is a staggering and unprecedented figure...Because what is being asked of the American people is unprecedented, great care must be taken to ensure their protection."

McCain insisted on greater accountability, a way for taxpayers to recoup the cash fed into the fund, total transparency in the review and implementation of the legislation, and no profits for Wall Street execs.

But McCain declined to say whether the absence of any of those features would be a dealbreaker, saying instead that current efforts should focus on securing them first. And McCain took only a few questions at the presser that followed. While Obama's question-and-answer session was also brief, McCain seemed like the one who needed to make real headway, and it's hard to argue that he accomplished this, though it's anybody's guess where this all ends up.

Full McCain remarks after the jump.

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A new Pew poll directly measures voter sentiment on the question of which candidate is best equipped to handle the current crisis, and it finds Obama ahead by double-digits, even among independents:

[V]oters favor Barack Obama over John McCain as the presidential candidate best able to address the current financial crisis: 47% favor Obama, while 35% choose McCain. Independents prefer Obama over McCain by a margin of 44% to 30%, while Republicans and Democrats line up solidly behind their party nominees.

The perception that McCain is better prepared to deal with crisis had been one of his key advantages. And McCain clearly hoped to use the meltdown to transfer that edge onto economic turf (where Obama enjoys other advantages) by repeatedly attacking Obama for supposedly not providing the leadership that McCain has.

If these numbers are any indication, the voters may not be buying it.

Still, public sentiment remains in flux on the crisis. Inexplicably, some 57% favor the bailout being offered by the government, while only 19% say that same government is doing a good or excellent job addressing the meltdown. Which means that where this ends up politically is anything but assured, and the stakes remain extraordinarily high for both candidates' performance in coming days.

In remarks this afternoon on the bailout, Barack Obama sharpened up his critique of the President and the bailout plan's "my-way-or-the-highway" aspects, invoking bad memories of past Bush haste and "intransigence" as a way of arguing for caution and the protection of taxpayers rather than letting our response be dictated by "fear or panic."

From the prepared remarks:

The President's stubborn inflexibility is both unacceptable and disturbingly familiar. This is not the time for my-way-or-the-highway intransigence from anyone involved. It's not the time for fear or panic. It's the time for resolve, responsibility, and reasonableness.

And it is wholly unreasonable to expect that American taxpayers would or should hand this Administration or any Administration a $700 billion blank check with absolutely no oversight or conditions when a lack of oversight in Washington and on Wall Street is exactly what got us into this mess.

Obama also cast unnamed CEOs as enemies of the national interest:

There has been talk that some CEOs may refuse to cooperate with this plan if they have to forgo multi-million-dollar salaries. I cannot imagine a position more selfish and greedy at a time of national crisis. And I would like to speak directly to those CEOs right now: Do not make that mistake...This plan cannot be a welfare program for Wall Street executives.

Obama's ratcheted up populist and anti-Bush rhetoric is about relying on mistrust of the Bush administration and corporate CEOs to counterbalance the panicked calls for an immediate solution and to create the political breathing room necessary for Congress to work towards a solution that has meaningful protections and oversight.

Obama also suggested ways to give the public a greater stake in the deal and to protect people dealing with the mortgage crisis, such as putting equity into these firms, rather than buying troubled assets, and giving government the authority to directly buy mortgages, rather than just mortgage-backed securities. Full remarks after the jump.

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The Obama campaign has released a new Spanish TV ad for Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Florida, hammering John McCain on the economy -- yet another indication of just how much the financial crisis has re-centered the campaign on issues like jobs, health care and housing, rather than foreign policy or immigration.

The ad goes after John McCain's remarks that the fundamentals of the economy are strong:

There is also a radio version that you can listen to here.

The English translation of the script is available after the jump.

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Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with Obama's lead over McCain possibly shrinking just a bit, though he remains ahead:

• Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-44%.

• Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 48%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama had a one-point lead of 48%-47%.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 47%-42%.

• Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 47.7%-45.3%, compared to a lead yesterday of 48.0%-44.8%.

Events are moving fast, so the state of play isn't immediately clear. But it appears a major standoff has developed between the McCain campaign and the big news orgs over access -- or lack thereof -- to Sarah Palin.

Earlier today the traveling press was informed that reporters would be banned from covering her meeting today in New York with world leaders; only photographers and a TV crew were to be allowed in. The move appeared designed to ensure that Palin, who has faced only two interviews since becoming the GOP Veep candidate (well, only one real one; the other was with Fox), would face no questions.

CNN decided to yank its crew in protest, a major blow to the McCain campaign's efforts to get TV coverage of this highly stage-managed moment. The Associated Press also apparently objected, as did other networks.

According to The New York Times, the campaign subsequently relented and decided to let in a producer. But that left print reporters out in the cold.

The Times subsequently added that one print reporter may in fact be allowed in. But this is still unconfirmed.

Either way, between the stiff-arm Palin has given the press, the constant lying from the McCain campaign, and the McCain camp's adolescent acting-out about the media's alleged mistreatment of longtime media fave McCain, it seems clear that relations between the McCain campaign and the media are approaching a breaking point. Whether this will materially impact the race is unclear, but that's where we are now.

More soon.

Late Update: The McCain campaign has now relented, and will allow reporters to accompany Palin to her meetings with Henry Kissinger and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. I've updated hed to reflect this.

CNN tallies up the averages of some recent swing state polls:

Florida poll of polls (consists of 5 recent surveys):

McCain: 46 percent
Obama: 46 percent
Unsure: 8 percent

Michigan poll of polls (consists of five recent surveys):

Obama: 48 percent
McCain: 44 percent
Unsure: 8 percent

Minnesota poll of polls (consists of three recent surveys)

Obama 47 percent
McCain 46 percent
Unsure 7 percent

Wisconsin poll of polls (consists of four recent surveys)

Obama: 49 percent
McCain 45 percent
Unsure 6 percent

Colorado poll for Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post

Obama: 49 percent
McCain: 45 percent
Unsure: 6 percent

The two surprises here are the tie in Florida, where McCain had held a respectable lead for weeks if not months, and the virtual dead heat in Minnesota, where Obama has consistently led in recent surveys.

Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: An avalanche of polls shows the Democrats running ahead or close behind in several seats that have been in GOP hands for years -- suggesting the possibility of major Dem gains.

GOP Rep's Ad: I'm Sorry I Went On An Abramoff Trip
This ad needs to be seen to be believed. Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), who is facing a spirited challenge from Democrat Suzanne Kosmas, has this new ad in which he speaks to the camera and abjectly apologizes for going on an Abramoff-sponsored trip five years ago:

"I embarrassed myself, embarrassed you, and for that I'm very sorry," Feeney says.

Polls Show Big House Races In Ohio This Year
A new set of SurveyUSA polls in Ohio show Dems poised to pick up two out of four contested GOP-held district. In the First District, incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is holding a small lead over challenger Steve Driehaus (D) 46%-44%. In the Second District, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) is holding an 8-point lead over challenger Victoria Wulsin (D) 48%-40%. But in the open 15th and 16th Districts Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has a 47%-42% lead over Steve Stivers (R), and John Boccieri (D) has a 49%-41% lead over Kirk Schuring (R).

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"At what point does an extreme attempt to de-legitimate the press actually de-legitimate the candidate as an extremist in the eyes of the press? If the McCain campaign says the Times is not a legitimate news source, why does the Times have to treat McCain as a legitimate candidate?"

So asks New York University professor Jay Rosen, and it's a pretty good question.

I'd only add this: The McCain campaign says the Times is an adjunct of the Obama campaign. So why do McCain and his advisers keep giving statements and interviews to the paper's reporters, since all that does is legitimize the paper and help perpetuate the ruse that it's a legit news source, thus making its campaign on Obama's behalf all the more effective?

Late Update: I should add that I take Rosen's question to be partly a tongue in cheek way of pointing out that if the paper weren't a legit news source it wouldn't be treating McCain as a legit candidate, which of course it's doing every day.

Hmmm. Let no one say whining doesn't work. Take a look at the headline and subhed on today's Times pieces previewing Obama and McCain's debating styles:

Either the McCain campaign's comically dishonest assault on the paper yesterday is bearing fruit -- or maybe the paper really is an adjunct of the Obama campaign and is doing Obama the favor of lowering expectations for his performance and inflating them for McCain? Our money's on the first option...

Here are some interesting numbers buried in the new Quinnipiac polls that shed some light on now the financial meltdown is playing for the candidates in the four battleground states polled.

In all four states, a solid majority of voters rate the economy as the single most important issue: 51% in Colorado, 58% in Michigan, 55% in Minnesota, and 51% in Wisconsin. By contrast, Iraq and terrorism combined are only in the high teens as the most important issue in all these states.

Meanwhile, in three out of those four states, Obama is seen as understanding the economy better than John McCain: 47%-41% in Colorado, 50%-38% in Michigan, and 47%-40% in Wisconsin. The two are tied on 45%-45% on the economy in Minnesota.

Separately, it doesn't look like Sarah Palin has done much to move female voters. Obama's edges among them are comparable to his leads in the last Quinnipiac polls from a month ago. Even more interestingly, women are picking Joe Biden over Palin in a hypothetical presidential match-up by margins of ten points or more.

New McCain Ad: Dems Don't Know What To Do About The Market
The Mccain campaign has another ad out on the economy, depicting Democrats as clueless on the economy -- and using some very interesting imagery:

Note that the "CEO rip-offs" line is accompanied by a shifty-looking pic of Franklin Raines, whom the McCain camp has accused the Obama campaign -- on scant evidence at best -- of receiving economic advice from. This is then followed by a photo of an innocent-looking middle-aged white woman.

Obama Ad: McCain Protects Companies That Hide Their Assets
Here's a new Obama national cable TV ad hitting John McCain on corporate accountability, hammering him for protecting tax breaks for companies that hide their profits offshore:

"McCain went to Bermuda," the announcer says. "And while he was there pledged to protect tax breaks for American corporations that hide their profits offshore. And grateful insurance company executives and their lobbyists who benefit from the tax scheme, gave McCain $50,000.

Obama Off The Trail, Biden In Virginia
Barack Obama does not have any public events today, probably because he's preparing for the first debate this Friday -- but he's also done a taped interview for the Today Show this morning. Joe Biden has an event as 12 p.m. ET in Woodbridge, Virginia, and he'll be speaking to the National Jewish Democratic Council in Washington at 5 p.m. ET.

McCain In Ohio And Michigan
John McCain is campaigning today in Ohio and Michigan, with a stop this morning in Middleburg, Ohio, and another this afternoon in Freeland, Michigan.

Palin Meets The World Leaders
This is Sarah Palin's big day at the U.N., where she'll be meeting Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

Polls: Obama Up In Colorado, Three Other Key States
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in four key battleground states. The numbers: Obama is up 49%-45% in Colorado, 48%-44% in Michigan, 47%-45% in Minnesota, and 49%-42% in Wisconsin. The margins of error are all ±2.7%, except in Colorado where it is ±2.6%.

Poll: Obama Ahead In Florida
A new NBC News poll gives Barack Obama a 47%-45% lead in Florida, within the ±4% margin of error. All the other recent polls have put McCain ahead in this state, but who knows, this might be the start of an uptrend for Obama.

McCain's Transition Head Lobbied For Freddie Mac
Here's yet another lobbyist-related headache for John McCain when it comes to his campaign's attacks on Barack Obama. Bloomberg reports that William Timmons, the lobbyist who McCain has tapped to head up his transition team should he be elected, lobbied for Freddie Mac from 2000 up until the government takeover.

Biden Walks Back Criticism Of Obama Ad
The Obama camp released this statement last night from Joe Biden, retracting his criticism of the campaign's ad that hits John McCain for being a computer-illiterate:

"I was asked about an ad I'd never seen, reacting merely to press reports. As I said right then, I knew there was nothing intentionally personal in the criticism of Senator McCain's views which look backwards not forwards and are out of touch with the new economic challenges we face today. Having now reviewed the ad, it is even more clear to me that given the disgraceful tenor of Senator McCain's ads and their persistent falsehoods, his campaign is in no position to criticize, especially when they continue to distort Barack's votes on an issue as personal as keeping kids safe from sexual predator."

A new raft of polls today have Barack Obama doing well nationally and in key states, though it's not a perfect picture by any means:

• The new CNN national poll gives Obama a 51%-47% lead, with a ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, the candidates were tied 48%-48%

• Two polls in Virginia are putting Barack Obama ahead. From SurveyUSA: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.7% margin of error. From ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 49%, McCain 46%, with a ±4% margin of error. On the other hand, the new Rasmussen poll puts McCain ahead 50%-48%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

• In Florida, Rasmussen has McCain ahead 51%-46%, with ±4.5% margin of error.

• In Michigan, Rasmussen has Obama ahead 51%-44%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

• In New Hampshire, the new University of New Hampshire poll gives McCain a 47%-45% lead, within the ±4.3% margin of error.

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The Huffington Post adds some sorely needed perspective to the buffoonish attack the McCain campaign lobbed at The New York Times today:

For a party that rails against the New York Times, the Republicans sure depend on the Grey Lady to score political points.

Since the end of the primary, John McCain's campaign has sent at least 60 emails to its rapid response list that reference the New York Times. They have used the paper to repeatedly knock Obama for voting "present" in the Illinois State Senate. They have used it to defend McCain's record on Jack Abramoff, to accuse Obama of flip-flopping on Iraq, and to bolster the case for vice presidential pick Sarah Palin...

Moreover, since July 1, the RNC and the McCain campaign have sent out at least 38 press releases that reference the Times, while, since the end of July, the RNC has sent out at least 65 emails that quote the paper.

This, of course, was before the McCain campaign had decided that the Times isn't a real journalistic organization, as McCain adviser Steve Schmidt said today.

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: The political attacks today have been particularly rough, with candidates being charged with exporting jobs, crafting legislation to benefit themselves financially -- and writing pornography.

NRSC Ad: Al Franken Jokes About Rape, Physically Assaults People
Wow. The NRSC's new ad against Al Franken doesn't pull any punches, calling him "unfit for office" due in part to the many sick jokes he's told over the years as a comedian:

"Franken writes about committing rape," the announcer says. "Franken writes pornography so vile, Democrats denounced it."

Poll: Minnesota Senate Race A Dead Heat
A new Rasmussen poll confirms just how close the Minnesota Senate race is -- and explains why both sides are busy running the nastiest attack ads they can think of. The numbers: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 48%, Al Franken (D) 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. Last month, the two of them were tied 45%-45%.

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An emerging meme on the right, one that's being championed by the likes of Neil Cavuto and others, is that the mortgage crisis happened not because of deregulation, but because brokers were pressured into making loans to "minorities and risky folks," as Cavuto tastefully put it.

But guess who actively sought to boost minority homeownership? John McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis.

As The New York Times reported today, Davis was president for several years of the Homeownership Alliance, an industry advocacy organization formed mainly by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Alliance's core mission is to boost the number of mortgages granted.

But take a look at this picture from the alliance's annual report in 2004, unearthed by a reader, showing Davis at a Congressional reception praising minority homeownership (click to enlarge):

"We have an opportunity in the next decade to increase minority homeownership and significantly reduce the minority homeownership gap," Davis is quoted saying here. "The future of the housing market rests heavily on the economic success of minorities. Homeownership is likely to grow faster among minority Americans in the next decade if all the stakeholders in the housing industry work together to make it happen. The Homeownership Alliance is working toward this goal."

Hmmm. Wingers agree McCain's campaign manager helped cause mortgage crisis?

Hillary just held a private conference call with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and dozens of donors to her campaign and to Ohio Dems, urging them to plow funds into the coffers of the Ohio state party so it can help execute the ground game on Barack Obama's behalf, a Hillary aide confirms to me.

"There isn't any doubt that Ohio once again will be the pivotal state in this election and I know that it's extremely close in the state," Hillary told the donors, according to excerpts of the call sent our way by her office.

Hillary also promised extensive future visits to the state on Obama's behalf. "I will be back campaigning up and down the state to make the case that the failed leadership of the last eight years should not be rewarded with another four," she told the donors.

Hillary also predicted that the economic meltdown would persuade Ohioans to back the Democrat. "I think that as we go through this very serious economic crisis, more and more Ohioans are going to say: 'Wait a minute we need a new vision. We need new leadership. We need a new hand on the tiller,'" Hillary said.

Hillary also will release a so-called radio actuality that can be played on local radio stations urging people to join up her new "Hillary Sent Me" program. Hillary aides promise more such localized fundraising calls and activities in the future, part of a ramped up effort on her part to help Obama in the hard-fought battleground states.

The McCain camp has just blasted out to its list a fundraising email by Sarah Palin claiming that Obama-Biden Democrats are waging frequent attacks on her family. From the email:

Friends, in the course of a few weeks, the Obama-Biden Democrats have launched attack after attack on me, my family and John McCain. They're desperate to win and they'll no doubt launch these attacks against other reformers on our ticket.

I didn't remember any attacks on Palin's family from Obama, Biden, or their top supporters. So I asked the McCain campaign what this was a reference to.

Here, according to a McCain campaign aide, are the attacks on Palin's family from "Obama-Biden Democrats" that the email refers to:

1) Obama finance committee member Howard Gutman questioning Palin's parenting and her willingness to take on the Veep candidate role when her family is so consuming -- a comment he subsequently apologized for.

2) Andrew Sullivan's demand that the McCain campaign release medical records putting to rest rumors about the birth of Trig Palin.

3) A user diary on DailyKos, which is of course the site of leading Obama supporter Markos Moulitsas, raising questions about that pregnancy.

And that's it.

Meanwhile, just today, on a McCain campaign conference call, McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt laid into the alleged ties between Joe Biden's son and the credit card industry.

Late Update: Markos instant-messages me the following response:

"You could use a Daily Kos diary to justify just about any charge ever made. Same with the Free Republic message boards, etc. But that's patently absurd, and just more of her `rile the base' bullshit. If something stupid can be said, you can believe someone on Daily Kos has said it."

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with all of them showing Barack Obama ahead by various margins:

• Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, essentially unchanged from yesterday's 49%-45% lead for Obama.

• Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama had a smaller lead of only 45%-44%

• Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-42%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.0%-44.8%, not significantly changed from a lead yesterday of 48.2%-45.2%.

Obama is currently giving a big speech on the economy in Green Bay, WI. In it, he launches a broad assault on McCain that ties together a number of Obama campaign themes, criticizing McCain's pro-deregulation and trickle-down philosophies; hammering away at the army of lobbyists running McCain's campaign; and lampooning the comic dimension of McCain's sudden conversion into pitchfork-wielding populist.

From the prepared remarks:

Our opponent, on the other hand, has spent much of the last nineteen months arguing that what qualifies him to be President are the decades he's spent in Washington.

But with forty-two days left, he's had a sudden change of heart. An election-time conversion. After twenty-six years in Washington -- years where he voted for the same trickle-down, on-your-own policies that got us into this mess -- he now claims that he's the one who can clean it up.

Well let's be clear. When it comes to regulatory reform, Senator McCain has fought time and time again against the common-sense rules of the road that could've prevented this crisis. His economic plan was written by Phil Gramm, the architect in the US Senate of the de-regulatory steps that helped cause this mess. Even knowing what we know now, Senator McCain said in an interview just last night that de-regulation actually helped grow our economy. Well that might be true for the profits of a few CEOs, but it's certainly not true for America's prosperity.

When it comes to taking on the special interests, my opponent sounds like Fighting Bob Lafollette. But he acts like a guy who's spent three decades of his life in Washington. He's put seven of the biggest corporate lobbyists in charge of his campaign -- lobbyists for the insurance industry and the oil industry; for foreign governments and Freddie and Fannie Mac, who paid his campaign manager nearly $2 million to defend them against stricter regulations. I guess they got their money's worth.

[...]

After twenty-six years of being part of this Washington culture, all that he has changed is his slogan for the fall campaign. And the people in charge of that campaign prove that if we elect John McCain, it's not a team of mavericks we'll be sending to the White House - it's a team of lobbyists.

As I noted below, one thing that's working in Obama's favor is that unlike in McCain's case, Obama's attacks on McCain's advisers neatly dovetail with the larger argument he's waging in the realm of ideas. Full Obama speech after the jump.

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The McCain campaign is going on the attack against the New York Times for reporting that campaign manger Rick Davis was paid almost $2 million as head of a lobbying organization that represented Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and others, claiming that the paper is not "by any standard a journalistic organization."

On a conference call with reporters today, Davis said only that he was involved in an effort to promote the cause of home-ownership -- but that he wasn't actually a lobbyist. "I never lobbied a single day," Davis said -- a claim that seems at odds with a Fannie exec's claim to the paper that they were giving Davis huge amounts of money on the chance that McCain might become president.

Then Steve Schmidt, the campaign's chief operating officer, aggressively took on the Times.

"Whatever the New York Times once was, it is not today by any standard a journalistic organization," Schmidt said. "It is a pro-Obama organization that every day attacks Senator McCain, attacks Governor Palin, and excuses Senator Obama."

Late Update: Here's the audio from the conference call:

In a speech on the economy today in Scranton, PA, John McCain spat populist fire as he railed at the high executive compensation and golden parachutes enjoyed by top Wall Street executives. From the prepared remarks:

The firms we help need accountability too. We cannot have taxpayers footing the bill for bloated golden parachutes like we see in the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, where the top executives are asking for $2.5 billion in bonuses after they ran the company into the ground. The senior executives of any firm that is bailed out by treasury should not be making more than the highest paid government official.

Only hours earlier, however, McCain was on MSNBC, where he displayed a notable lack of concern -- and a lack of awareness of the details -- about the golden parachute enjoyed by former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, one of his own leading economic advisers.

Asked if he viewed Fiorina and her $45 million golden parachute as an example of the sort of person that's the problem on Wall Street, McCain said: "I don't think so."

Asked to square her golden parachute with his pledge to crack down on such compensation, McCain responded: "I think she did a good job as CEO in many respects. I don't know the details of her compensation package but she's one of many advisers that I have."

Pressed further, McCain claimed: "I do not know the details of what happened."

A quick side note. Both sides are hammering away at the business ties of his opponent's advisers as a way of gaining traction on the economic crisis. The challenge for each is to make the criticism of his foe's advisers gel with the larger philosophical and political argument he's trying to make, rather than letting the chatter about advisers become a distraction from it.

Obama would seem to have a bit of an advantage here. The criticism of McCain's advisers as bloated execs or longtime lobbyists for corporate interests dovetails nicely with Obama's claim that McCain is philosophically a deregulator at heart as well as a D.C. insider tied to interests heavily invested in the status quo.

Meanwhile, the fact that Obama was advised by a former Fannie exec allows McCain to attack Obama as a hypocrite, perhaps, but doesn't give McCain ammo to draw any meaningful contrast between the two candidates in the realm of ideas.

Late Update: Here's the video of McCain on MSNBC:

Here's this morning's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems' chances of taking a key Senate seat have just gone up considerably, and the party overall is spending heavily in key races.

Polls Show GOP Sen. Dole Losing Re-Election
Two new polls show that Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) is trailing her Democratic opponent Kay Hagan, a rare opportunity for a Democratic pick-up in a Southern Senate seat. The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Hagan 46%, Dole 41%, with a ±3% margin of error. And from Rasmussen: Hagan 51%, Dole 45%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

Coleman: Bailout Isn't Really A Bailout
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is praising the proposed Wall St. bailout, in which the government would buy $700 billion in mortgage debts with little or no oversight or penalties for the firms that made that loans in the first place. Coleman alleges that the buyout is "not an infusion of cash" to the firms, but is in fact an investment by the government: "The government could make 10 or 20 times what it pays on this, possibly." Needless to say, this is economic nonsense.

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In an interview with the same Miami radio station that elicited the now-notorious McCain Zapatero flub, Obama hits McCain for refusing to say whether he'd meet with the Spanish prime minister.

The key moment comes around two-thirds of the way in. Asked if he'd meet with Zapatero, Obama said:

"Of course. Spain is a NATO ally, and the fact that Senator McCain indicated that he might not meet with Zapatero I think indicates that he wants to continue the Cheney policies of trying to dictate American foreign policy instead of trying to build cooperation. I think that's a mistake."

The Obama campaign is going after McCain over a story in today's New York Times reporting that McCain campaign manager Rick Davis took a staggering $30,000 a month for five years as the head of a group set up by Fannie and Freddie to defend them against stricter government regulations.

The Obama campaign's broadside came in response to a McCain ad released this morning tying Obama to the Rezko mess. From Obama campaign spokesperson Bill Burton:

"It's no coincidence that on the very day newspapers reported that John McCain's campaign manager was paid $2 million to lobby against tighter regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the McCain campaign would launch this false, gratuitous attack. Barack Obama was elected to the Illinois Senate as an independent Democrat. He took on the Chicago Democratic organization in a primary to win a seat in the US Senate. And in both Illinois and Washington, he has challenged the Old Guard for landmark ethics reforms."

In the current environment, the Times story should be an important one by any measure. In one particularly choice nugget, a former Fannie exec explains why currying favor with Davis was seen as so valuable to the mortgage giants:

"The value that he brought to the relationship was the closeness to Senator McCain and the possibility that Senator McCain was going to run for president again," said Robert McCarson, a former spokesman for Fannie Mae, who said that while he worked there from 2000 to 2002, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together paid Mr. Davis's firm $35,000 a month. Mr. Davis "didn't really do anything," Mr. McCarson, a Democrat, said.

So according to this exec, it was worth it to Fannie, in its quest to fend off regulatory oversight, to pay tens of thousands of dollars a month to Davis simply because of the possibility that McCain would become president.

McCain Ad: Obama "Born Of" Corruption
The McCain campaign has this new national TV ad out, accusing Obama of being "born of the corrupt Chicago political machine," connecting him to former fundraiser Tony Rezko:

"With friends like that, Obama is not ready to lead," the announcer says.

NYT: Rick Davis Collected Six-Figure Annual Salaries As Fannie/Freddie Lobbyist
The New York Times reports this morning that in light of John McCain's attacks against Barack Obama for having connections to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, McCain may want to examine his own staffers' backgrounds. It turns out that McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis was paid about $350,000 per year for five years to head up a lobbying organization for those very same mortgage brokers.

Obamas In Wisconsin, Joe Biden Addresses National Guard
Barack Obama is speaking today in Green Bay, Wisconsin, with an event scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, before heading back to Chicago for a fundraiser tonight. Michelle Obama is extensively touring this swing state, with an 11 a.m. ET rally in Madison, a 2:45 p.m. ET rally in Wausau, a 4:30 p.m. ET rally in West Allis, and an evening fundraiser in Fox Point. Joe Biden is addressing the National Guard Association convention in Baltimore, Maryland, a speech scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET

McCain And Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the day in the big swing state of Pennsylvania. The two of them will hold a town hall event at 10:30 a.m. ET in Scranton, followed by a rally in Media at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Detroit Free Press: McCain Drives A Foreign Car
The local press in Michigan is jumping at Newsweek's report that the McCain's own over a dozen cars, while the Obamas have only one. The newest shoe to drop: Despite McCain's previous statements that he's bought American cars all his life, among the cars he and Cindy own are a Lexus, a Honda and a Volkswagen -- cardinal sins to Michigan voters concerned about he domestic auto industry.

Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Pennsylvania
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Pennsylvania shows a very close race in this large swing state, which went to John Kerry by only two points in 2004. The numbers: Obama 46%, McCain 44%, within the ±4% margin of error.

Obama Pulls Out Of North Dakota
Barack Obama has pulled his staff and advertising presence out of North Dakota, a traditionally-Republican state that he'd been courting for the past several months. Recent polling gave John McCain a good lead here, making it prudent to look at other states instead.

The Obama campaign goes up with a new ad hitting McCain for his apparent call, in an article for the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries, for "opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition":

In an interesting twist, McCain's article for Contingencies magazine was unearthed by Paul Krugman, who was a leading Obama-sketpic during the Dem primary, partly because of Obama's health care plan.

The spot weaves the McCain-as-deregulator critique into a broader, more emotional argument, describing McCain as "a risk we just can't afford to take."

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with Barack Obama still ahead but his margin potentially a bit smaller than yesterday:

• Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was ahead 50%-44%.

• Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 50%-42%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.2%-45.2%, a slightly smaller lead than yesterday's 48.7%-44.9%. It could just be statistical noise, or it might be something else.

Dems And GOP At Financial Parity For General Election
The two presidential nominees and their parties entered the general election on roughly equal financial footing -- Barack Obama and the DNC had $95 million on hand, and John McCain and the RNC $94 million. Another fun number: In August alone, the two sides spent over $90 million altogether.

Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Barack Obama is holding a rally today in Charlotte, North Carolina, with a rally scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. ET. Joe Biden does not have any scheduled events.

McCain Speaks To National Guard, Palin In Florida
John McCain is speaking today to the National Guard convention in Baltimore, Maryland, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Sarah Palin is holding a campaign rally in Lady Lake, Florida, scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET.

Dems Going After McCain On Health Care And Banking Statement
The Dems are pouncing on some comments by John McCain, in which he said health insurance should be deregulated in the same way as banking was, in order to achieve the same success. The Obama campaign and state Democratic parties have announced a series of events across the country, designed to attack McCain for this bizarre statement.

VP Debate Rules Dumbed Down
The rules for the upcoming vice-presidential debate have been altered at the McCain campaign's insistence, in an apparent attempt to make things easier on Sarah Palin. Instead of a more open-ended format that will allow the candidates to interact on the issues -- as will be the case in the presidential debates -- the VP debate will consist of much more formulaic question and answer rounds, allowing Palin to repeat stock answers.

McCain Camp Steps Up Palin's Foreign Policy Meetings
Sarah Palin will be meeting with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger this week, in addition to her already-scheduled meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Polls: McCain Narrowly Ahead In Florida, Obama Way Up In Iowa
A new Research 2000 poll gives John McCain the lead in Florida by a 46%-45% margin, within the ±4% margin of error. Meanwhile Obama has a huge lead of 53%-39% in Iowa, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004.