It's Unlikely Webb Will Speak At The Dem Convention
One name that's conspicuously absent from the current lineup of speakers at the Dem convention: Jim Webb.
This, even though Obama is making a major play for Virginia. This, even though Webb would be a fantastic voice on the third night of the convention, which is national security night.
This could mean one of several things. First, and perhaps most likely, he hasn't been slotted in yet, though why this would be the case is unclear. Second possibility: He will be Veep, even if he's ruled it out. Third possibility: He's still being actively considered for Veep.
It's an odd, and conspicuous, omission. [Editor's note: Actually, it doesn't mean any of those things, and it's not an odd omission. See update below.]
Late Update: It's true, as a commenter points out, that Tim Kaine and Wes Clark also haven't been scheduled yet. But we know Kaine is being considered for Veep, and Clark has said he'll be out of the country.
And again, Webb ruled out the Veep slot, so slotting him in on national security night should have been a no-brainer.
Late Late Update: A Webb spokesperson tells me it's "unlikely" he'll speak at the gathering. He's leaving Wednesday morning to keynote an American Legion national convention in Phoenix. I've changed the headline to reflect that.
Which is to say, I never should have done this dopey post at all.
Is he related to Hillary?
August 15, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope not, but, I dont think webb is necessarily the best speaker in the world.
Hundreds Show Up 2 the PUMA Conference - Pictures
August 15, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius stated on CQ Politics:
"Every potential vice presidential choice also has a speaking slot..."
If we're to assume she's correct, then an absence of Jim Webb furthers the idea that he's NOT gonna be Veep, rather than the idea that he IS gonna be Veep.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/vpwatch/2008/08/wes-clarks-slogan-is-vps-theme.html
Just thought I'd throw that out there.
August 15, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
very good point to make.
just to throw a bit of craziness in the mix, perhaps Gov. Sebelius' comment helps to explain why Chelsea Clinton is speaking at the convention...hmm...interesting...
August 15, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wednesday night is NOT "national security" night. Sheez. The theme is "securing America's future." Are we still so traumatized from 9/11 that we interpret that to mean national security? I don't.
I think it means focusing on where we want to take the country in the future. How do we secure the economic, educational, moral and, yes, military security of the country.
August 15, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
With all due respect, I doubt Gov. Sebelius even knows who all the veep possibilities are. She was probably only referring to the "usual suspects" who have been covered by the MSM.
August 15, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never said she did. I'm simply saying that she made a pretty clear statement that the VP potentials will all be speaking at the Convention. I've yet to see a single rebut of that from the Obama campaign, or really anyone else. It seems to me if it wasn't true she wouldn't have said it. Maybe she knows something we don't? I don't know. But the fact that she said it is enough for me to at least ponder on the issue. You don't have to if you don't want to. I was simply throwing that out there.
August 15, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree.
I love how the campaign has managed to drum up so much interest in the Veep pick.
Any bets on when it will be announced?
I say next Friday.
No reason. Just a hunch.
I changed my pick. I think it's going to be Kaine. Why else would Michelle Obama spend time with him?
August 15, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really don't understand this Kaine boomlet. What the hell is the appeal? What, that Obama likes him personally? Please!
August 15, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not saying that I want Kaine--I'm lukewarm towards. Actually, "cool" would be a better description--he's been a bit disappointing as governor, and, he doesn't have the all important "foreign policy-national security-military experience" bonafides.
I'm picking him just because of the fact that Michelle Obama met with him.
And, if you believe the talking hairdoes on the TeeVee, one of the most important characteristics of a Veep is how well said Veep gets along with the nominee. And, presumably, the nominee's spouse.
August 15, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
well, if that's the case, then Obama's political skills are vastly overrated. By picking a loser like Kaine, he is basically saying "I have no gaps to fill in my candidacy, so I'm picking my little buddy here." I can't see it - Obama's smarter than this,right?
August 15, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's certainly seemed smarter.
But I don't know that Kaine will be viewed as a "loser" to that many people. Myself? I guess I would prefer him to Bayh, certainly, but I wouldn't be excited over him.
I've changed my mind yet again. I think the Veep is going to be Lincoln Chafee.
Yeah, I know, absurd, but hey, it's all speculation at this point.
August 15, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"loser" may be too strong but he's mediocre at best. He rode into office on Warners coattails and hasn't really accomplished anything, other than his early endorsement of Obama. Good for him on that, but the VP nod is too great a reward.
August 15, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Every speaker could be the potentional Vice Presidential nominee . The suspense is calling us!!!...lol
August 15, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
So does this mean that Sebelius is out of the running for VP? I must've missed that. Dang. I was rooting for her.
August 15, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we may be going a bit overboard using the convention schedule as a barometer for the Veepstakes. I mean Obama's campaign seems relatively good at keeping secrets, so by scheduling Sebelius it might just be a way to throw us off the scent. That said Webb, Biden, Bayh, Kaine, Clark and Dodd (along with myriad other senior party folk) have yet to be scheduled. I still very much hope it's Biden, but it seems a bit too pat to dismiss out of hand anyone who's already on the schedule.
August 15, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden and Bayh have both been scheduled on Wednesday.
The unscheduled include Kaine, Dodd, and Webb (Clark said he'll be out of the country during the convention).
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 15, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
As well as Chet Edwards of Texas.
OBTW, Webb has said he is not in the running for veep.
August 15, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone has to introduce Obama on Thursday night, maybe Webb is going to do that.
I wouldn't consider it at all likely that Webb is being considered for the ticket since he refused to undergo the vetting process.
August 15, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or he's speaking at the Republican convention.
August 15, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, it's entirely possible that the VP pick has already been slotted, and that they'll just change the slots around after the announcement. It's not like these slots are carved into stone.
This looking at slots to determine the VP tea leave reading is just kind of ridiculous.
August 15, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
"This looking at slots to determine the VP tea leave reading is just kind of ridiculous. "
And it's not like the Obama team doesn't know people will be looking for clues in their convention plans. It's silly to think you are "out smarting" them by reading clues in the speaker lineup.
August 15, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
On the newswire last night there was an article listing the complete list of speakers and Warner was no longer listed as the keynote speaker, though still speaking on his original night and spot, instead it said the keynote address will be given by the VP. Is that the case now?
If Ambinder's story was to be believed and Obama's vetters made one last push to get Warner to open up to vetting, that might tell you what Obama is looking for. However if Warner is the keynote speaker (and Obama wanted him for VP), that's basically Obama's endorsement as to who he wants to follow him in eight years time. And if that is the case, then one might assume Obama will select an older VP because why roll out the red carpet for Warner if your VP would be the favorite in eight years time?
I read recently that Obama and Biden voted together 94% of the time.
August 15, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I seriously doubt it's Warner--I'm still perplexed about why he dropped out so abruptly last year from running for President.
I figured he had something in his past that would eventually come out, and he decided not to risk that kind of exposure or put his family through the meatgrinder--and sure, he's running for Senator now, and may be risking something, but the spotlight is much brighter on presidential candidates than it is senatorial, I think.
August 15, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are we now to the point that someone's deciding not to run for the Presidency makes him morally or ethically suspect?
August 15, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank god the Obama team has Greg Sargent to map its their strategy for them. Between Greg's chessboard expertise and Kleefeld's polling smarts, there must be some crazy synergy going on between Chicago and TPM!
Then again, at least we've taken a break from bad news polls. This could be an encouraging development.
August 15, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Webb is a non-starter, he need his seat in the Senate, giving that up would be INCREDIBLY stupid. Not to mention he has plenty of baggage that Obama doesn't need to mess with, and he definitely don't have the personality of a #2. Webb would be a very bad choice.
Also keep in mind that it wouldn't make much sense for Obama to be so secretive about the VP spot, and then make obvious moves with the schedule that would give it away. Think about it, there is nothing that says people can't be moved around at the last minute. The real VP could already be scheduled for another day. You might as well just give up trying to figure out what he is planning.
August 15, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I co-sign this whole comment.
I'm with Lux here.
August 15, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, Lux. What a total buzzkill.
: )
August 15, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
all, please see latest update.
August 15, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kinda funny Greg. We love ya', but we can laugh, right?
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 15, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
That sucks. We need jim Webb to speak at the convention.
August 15, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw.
That's ok, Greg. It happens to everyone.
August 15, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
So...
Why isn't Al Gore slated to speak at the Convention yet?
August 15, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good call.
August 15, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
See "August Surprise":
http://www.newyorksocialdiary.com/node/32725
August 15, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have to give Obama credit: he managed to keep a significant amount of attention even during even his (Obama's) vacation week, just with the tantalizing prospect that we could get word about the VP in our e-mail inbox *at any time* and then letting out, in pieces, information about speakers at the convention, agreement with Hillary, etc. It's not a lot substantive ... but it hasn't left the stage to McCain exclusively. The stagecraft -- and ability to keep a secret -- is simply awe-inspiring.
My entry into the betting pool:
Biden - Sunday night
August 15, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean the Sunday two days from now???
Bold choice...
August 15, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll say Biden, also - but I think they'll announce it next Wed.
August 15, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
My theory has long been that Obama will not rob Peter to pay Paul. He is keenly aware that if you pull a strong Dem from a shaky red state, you will lose that Gov slot or Senate seat. That means Kaine, Webb, and Bayh are all out.
That leaves Sibelius (whose seat would stay Dem), Clinton, or Biden. We all know it's not Clinton (although never say never), and Sibelius is a clear unknown. My tea leaves say Biden- safe Dem senate seat with a Dem gov who would appoint a Dem replacement, strong foreign policy creds, charismatic, and the best attack dog the party could have. They just need to sit him down and control the loose lips.
August 15, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
's all good, Greg.
August 15, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good to have Webb speaking at the American Legion instead. Better to have him sing a solo in Phoenix than add his voice to the chorus in Denver.
I can remember Mo Udall's words at a particularly tedious Dem convention years ago:
We have reached the point where everything has been said, but not everybody has said it."
(I miss Mo Udall.)
August 15, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like Webb introducing Obama on Thursday night. A quick trip to Phoenix and he's back.
August 15, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg,
Your humility about the dopey post is becoming and charming. The Veepstakes have us all wondering!
August 15, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
heck. bring clark back from whatever country he's going to and make him vp. anyone see him analyze the Georgia/Russia conflict on cnn today?
Sounded like an intelligent adult with a lot of foreign policy experience, especially in comparison to the blustering, presumptious mccain.
hit it out of the park.
August 15, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink