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Rasmussen: McCain Narrowly Up In Nevada And Virginia

A new pair of Rasmussen polls gives John McCain narrow leads in the key swing states of Nevada and Virginia, a sign that the presidential race remains very competitive on the state-by-stat level.

The numbers in Nevada: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. In another worry sign for Democrats, McCain's personal ratings are at 58% favorable to 42% unfavorable, compared to only 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable for Obama.

In Virginia: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. McCain's favorable are at 51%-36%, with Obama's at 51%-47%.


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Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but Nevada is a state that distributes EV's by the vote proportion, it is not a winner take all system. So if there are any % swings in Nevada, we're only talking about 1 EV right?

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Last I heard, the only states that do that are Nebraska and Maine.

Well, lame!

yeah, I never heard of nevada doing that, but if they did that would great.
I dont think the Nevada poll is all that credible, I never heard of Obama having a lower favorable rating then McCain when it came to battleground states like Nevada. You would only expect that in states like west virginia

New Obama Ad Featuring Voters
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/new-obama-ad-featuring-voters/

Ok, thanks. I thought Nevada was one of those states but I guess I was mistaken.

Very close races and will remain until election day. Would be nice to be ahead but Obama can win both. The ground game will be key as well as new voters coming out in force.

RASMUSSEN POLL: It’s hard to imagine a closer political race than the battle for Virginia’s Electoral College votes.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 45% to 44%. When “leaners” are factored in, it’s McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point edge, 48% to 47%.

Confusion: Obama is one-point head, but when learners are added McCain is one-point ahead. Pls, someone tell me is that making any sense at all?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Do you think those numbers need to be adjusted for the Bradley effect?

McCain's negative attacks are working. All the while Obama is sunning himself on the beaches of Hawaii.

Jonze... luvya, man - but aint it time to refill your Prozac??

Jonze,

Wrong. McCain's lame ass attacks are not working.

The fact of the matter is that Obama's week would have been much better spent busing it around a key swing state. Imagine if he spent the week in Virginia touring around with Webb, Kaine and/or Warner. Taking a week long vacation with less than 90 days before election day paints the picture that McCain wants it more and/or Obama arrogantly believes he has it sewn up.

Honestly, I think most people realize the fact that Obama has been campaigning nonstop for well over a year, whereas McCain has not. People paid very, VERY close attention to the Democratic primary. People know how much Obama put into it. They know he needs some time to rest.

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Agreed, why worry about Nevada, when you've got McCain on the front page of the Des Moines Register at the state fair with a pork chop on a stick? If Obama can't do food on a stick in August in the midwest, he's not going to be in any position to be worrying about states in the south or west.

Seems like he's replaying John Kerry's campaign. All safely boringly unmotivatingly centrist and smug while the slime merchants are at work stoking the fires of the hard right. As always, the left is taken for granted. Well, yawn, he isn't winning this. If he's lucky, he'll benefit sufficiently from a throw the bums out vote to edge out McCain. He'll have no mandate. He'll have a surly public on his hands ready to throw him out of office in 4 years if he doesn't produce. He isn't going to get a honeymoon. Hope he had a nice vacation.

I was born and raised in Iowa. Eating pork chop on a stick (whatever the heck that is) is not going to get the old man any votes. Since (and I'm assuming) you've never been to my home state, you seem to take us for some kind of hicks who love country music and the murkin' flag.

Honey, Iowa is not Kentucky. We've voted for the Republican candidate once since 84. So please dont generalize its people to make your point.

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Tyler, I was born and raised in Iowa and we Minnesotans spend plenty of time in August eating food on a stick too and if you want to be in a place where you can find 100,000 likely voters on a nice Saturday in August, you'll find them at the state fair. McCain was on the front page of the Register. Obama was no where. That's just a fact.

The reason McCain is ahead in Nevada is he attracts more Republicans than Obama does Democrats. They are tied in independents. Therefore, if Obama is able to bring home the base, he wins the state because there are more registered D's than R's -- a flip of 04.

Nevada was always a culturally conservative state despite the city of Las Vegas. The governor is a republican as well the states junior U.S. senator.

The key to wining Nevada is simple: Latino and rural vote. One of which Obama won in the primary.

The other of which he'll crush McCain in in the general.

Obama is not going to win the rural vote in Nevada. He has to win Clark County (Vegas) by a wide enough margin to offset republican leaning Washoe County(Reno)and the very republican but sparsely populated rural counties. Very doable.

Jonze,

pls, refrain from using the word 'arrogant.' Be aware that word has racial connotations to it.

Now. I agree. When Obama's face is seen in those two states his polls numbers rise significantly. But make no mistake both men want to be president, Obama just has a much better chance.

if obama negatives are so high why are the polls close................

ignore Jonze, he's fixated on negatives for some odd reason.

Jonze, I see your point. However, consider this: The next 90 days will be grueling. 60 days ago we were talking about Obama's cave on FISA. FISA is a big deal but the American Electorate has a short attention span. Imagine what will we be talking about in the next 30-60 days? Will it be a week in Hawaii? Or attributing the gaffes and unrested McCain is making to his old age?
Obama is resting now for the road ahead. McCain rests on weekends, and by his own admission, is not as sharp pulling the 18 hour days.
He's taking a hit on the vacation. Time will tell if it was worth it.

There is no one that I know that is paying attention to the election right now. Its the olympics, its vacations, its back to school shoping, its give me a break already. The only people that have 30 mins in a day to answer a poll are retirees, the unemployed and the political nuts. Wake me up in Spetember and then I will worry.

While Obama was overseas and now while on weeklong vacation McCain has been on the ground in key swing states putting face time in, shaking hands and kissing babies.

McCain's back in Michigan today, was in Pennsylvania Monday and Tuesday, and will probably hit Ohio again all the while Obama is off the trail.

And now Obama is talking about making a campaign stop in Alaska. He's not going to win Alaska, and visiting there will take him out of a toss-up swing state for 2-3 days. McCain hasn't taken the bait of a 50 state strategy, and Obama is burning money on such a plan as a result.

While Obama was overseas, McCain was on the ground in swing states then as well. Obama has pretty high negatives in these polls, and the only way he'll be able to bring those down if he gets out on the trail to meet people so they can size him up and realize he's not the boogie man McCain is smearing him to be.

While I understand that the vacation will re-energize him and he'll be ready to kick ass and take names all the way up until Nov. 4th, he's also 47 years old, and taking the vacation while the 72 yr old McCain is out stumping just sends the wrong image. It was three more months, he couldn't gut it out for three more months without a week-long+ vacation in a beach somewhere? He's not going to get any sympathy from soldiers or their families.

And just so I'm not completely negative, Obama passed the 2M donor mark earlier today.

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Just out of curiosity, what do you do for a living Jonze?

I ask because you're railing against a well-earned vacation and an international trip which was an unmitigated success which probably add up to a combined 10 days, the majority of which were actually days where Obama was working, actively, on the campaign and away from his family. Setting aside those 10 days, the man has been working 12-16 hours a day, 6 or 7 days a week, for over 18 months. In addition to being a sitting U.S. Senator, the man has defeated one of the greatest political machines of the 20th Century while under literally constant scrutiny. He holds multiple events and press availabilities. He probably can't pass gas without some Republican analyzing the scent for evidence of non-domestic food intake. And you're complaining about him taking some time to himself to step away from public scrutiny, think, read, sleep in, play with his kids, pop in a DVD and put an arm around his wife, etc.

So I ask again: What do you do for a living? How many 16 hour days have you had in the last 18 months? How many 7 day weeks? And how many of your days off have been dedicated to volunteering on behalf of Obama or getting any other Democratic candidate elected? Because lately you've been coming off like Eyore around here and I'm wondering if your time couldn't be better spent doing something positive than accentuating things that you perceive as negative...

Well said.

I fail to see how anyone can, with good conscience and intelligence, rail against Obama for taking a vacation. It's pathetic to think that a man can do what Obama's been doing for as long as he's been doing it and not collapse -- physically, mentally, etc. But Obama held up, the entire time. It's a well-deserved vacation.

And you know the other thing? I would bet that because of this vacation, Obama is going to have a lot more energy to get shit done. Not to mention his head and mind will be much clearer, and he'll probably have formulated his strategy for the following weeks.

There are so many more positives than negatives to Obama taking this much-needed and well-deserved vacation.

I'll tell you what I'm not doing for a living - I'm not running for the President of the United States. I know it's hard as hell work, but 72yo John McCain seems to be doing it all right. I'd understand if he didn't want to do the work, but then don't run. Don't run if you can't gut out the final 90 days on the campaign trail.

John McCain is dangerous. he's a war monger and he's going to want "his war". John McCain is bought and paid for, is probably losing some of his wits and yet he's basically tied with Obama.

We all like to guffaw at the silly attacks, but guess what, they're working. McCain is fighting for the vote, and people at least respect that. Obama has much higher negatives because he is allowing himself to be framed and not fighting back. It's madness.

If he didn't want to fight, he shouldn't have ran. He has said he's not scared to lose. Well I'm scared if he loses. Say what you will about Hillary Clinton, but at least she'd go down swinging. Obama has been on cruise control since midway though the Dem primary and hasn't put his foot on the gas since.

I wonder how many of his supporters are only supporting him now because they don't want to admit they might have made a mistake. He's not a fighter. What happened to bringing a gun to a knife fight? He's all talk. Excuses were made, some by me, that Obama was taking it easy in the primary because he was battling fellow Democrats, that once the GE rolled around he'd toughen up and throw some damn punches. But he's not - he's too laid back, he thinks he's supposed to win.

I was recently polled by Rasmussen and was struck by how clunky the process was. Anyone who isn't a political junkie would've hung up after the first few questions. I can't believe for a second that Rasmussen polls are anywhere near accurate, regardless of their results.

For one thing, the automated poll makes it easy to lie about such things as household income, race, party affiliation and any number of things that the pundits latch onto as a story angle.

The other thing that was annoying was the number of false choices that were presented to herd whatever response I gave toward an outcome that was favorable to the GOP. I believe this is called push polling.

Anyway, since Rasmussen polled me I won't be putting much faith in their numbers.

While I can't quote the exact reference for the quote that I read - I do believe that it came from a solid source (so you'll believe me or not as you may choose); the Chair/CEO of Rasmussen Polling was quoted as saying in effect 'I have an obligation to keep John McCain competitive through at least the GOP convention'. So yes the Rasmussen organization is indeed a GOP "leaning" polling firm and their frequent release of polling data has the intent to Float the McCain candidacy just enough to create the illusion that this race is "close".

However, if one looks at the broader trend lines of the overall polling from several sources (ARG, Gallup, Pew, Zogby (et al) there is NO Question that Obama is ahead and staying there... In fact the line I paraphrased above seems to be an open admission that the GOP is barely keeping the McCain campaign alive through essentially push-polling their own skewed results.

Were it not for that, No One Would Pay McCain Any Attention at All and CNN, Faux, MSNBC would have nothing for their Air.

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Your moving avatar makes it very difficult to read the upper portion of your comment.

While the polls are within the margin of error, anything goes. Still, this election is hard, if not impossible to poll.

It's all about the ground game.

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Obama's on vacation all week and he hits his highest mark in the Gallup tracker (except the post-Berlin bump). He needed to get out of the news, and he did.

Instead, it's been Olympics, John Edwards and Georgia - none of which affects the election.

These polls are worthless until the conventions. At that point we'll see how well Obama does pulling his Dem numbers up. If he gets to around 89% of Dems on his side, he wins. This race is competitive because Obama only gets around 82% of Dems. That's mostly a result of the long primary and some voters not paying much attention right now. McCain's negative campaign has helped bring his GOP numbers up, but it's done nothing to help him among Independents or Democrats. The "high negatives" for Obama are coming from Republicans who thrive on a diet of raw urine and feces.

New Obama ad attacking McCain on the economy:

For Indiana only.

http://www.washtimes.com/weblogs/bellantoni/2008/Aug/13/indiana-gets-its-own-anti-mccain-ad/

This ads are getting better and better.

Kudos, Obama camp.

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Obama seems to be now running ads attacking McBush in specific states geared to events in that state. I like it.

Jonze

Please read the news. Latest poll Obama is ahead in Alaska.
McBushsame will be on vacation next week. It is important for Senator Obama to take some time off.

Senator Obama is doing fine. He is ahead by 6 points in the Gallup poll.

And I want to see the cross tabs before we can comment on the polls. Like the poll from Susa in Florida where McBushSame gets 18% of the black vote.

I have a tendency not to believe the polls at this point.

I keep hearing the Electorate decides the winner, But doesn't the popular vote controls the Electorate votes?

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Virginia and Nevada are red states. Thus the fact that Obama is making them competitive is AMAZING.

This election will be WON on the ground folks. When it is this close in these states, whomever has the better ground game will win.

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Maritza, you're going on my list... When Senator Obama is elected President, I'm going to hold my very own inaugural ball here, just outside DC, and invite all the TPMers who are fellow believers in the vital significance of the ground game. It will be the deciding factor in this election. People swear by TV, but only because TV is their G-d. I swear by the ground game, but only because I grew up fearing the unforgiving wrath of Schembechler...

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You're invited for your avatar alone, but I did indeed miss your posts. Thanks for passing them along! I must confess, I've been trying to dial it back a little in terms of how tuned in I am to the back and forth here and elsewhere. So much of what's going on right now is complete bullshit, frankly, and I find myself knowing that and still getting too invested in it all because I care so much about the outcome in November. I beat up on myself for caring too much and then I beat up on myself for thinking that I could possibly care "too much" about something so significant. Sometimes it's good to step away, go outside, get some air, literally and figuratively...

Haha! Thanks. =) I saw The Dark Knight for the second time last night. Thinking of going again in the next couple weeks, too...

Though I doubt I'll be in the DC area at the time, I still appreciate the invite. ;D

I've been dialing back, too, to some extent. I mean, I haven't been commenting and posting as much as I did in the past couple weeks. It's all good, though. Like Obama, we all need a break sometimes.

I hope this mess with Mccain acting like he's President about the mess between Russia and Georgia does't lower his poll#s

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Why doesn't Obama run similar attack ads in EVERY state. This Indiana ad is damn good.

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Obama needs to run a similar ad of that Indiana ad in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, etc.

Again its a damn good ad.

Obama will win Virginia and Colorado, but I'm not quite sure about Nevada and North Carolina.

Also, I think Senator Obama needs to hit McbushSame on the nuclear waste. McBushSame is for the nuclear waste in Nevada but against it in Arizona.


Virginia has always been tight from McCain up by 1 to Obama by 2, so nothing new, it's one of the only true toss-up states at the moment, along with Indiana.

The fall and the debates will be the real campaign.

One thing as an Obama supporter worries me: McCain is always seen as ready and good in a crisis. This tells me, outside of political junkies, that most people aren't paying attention right now, because clearly McCain is not a very bright, alert guy, and shows very unstable judgment.

Hope Obama crushes him in debates and without saying it directly is able to make McCain show his true colors.

I'm worried about the debates, from what i've seen with the debates between him and Hillary, He's not a very good debater, Isn't he debating Mcwar Saturday?

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McCain can barely talk and, because he is the presumptuous Secretary of State in waiting, Joe Lieberman won't be there to whisper in John Dubya's ear when he gets his facts completely wrong. Again. McCain is a lesser orator. He doesn't have the facts on his side. He doesn't even have the body language advantage.

So Genesis, with all due respect, what the fuck are you worried about?

Let's check back after the debate, ondioline. You either haven't seen McCain debate, or you are hit hard by selective perception and retention. The McCain I've seen is relaxed, sarcastic and comfortable with himself. He's going to make fun of Obama a lot. And can anyone tell me how we ended up with Oxford, MS as the first debate venue?

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I've seen him debate plenty. The one that's lingering in my mind right now is him repeatedly stammering through ham-handed efforts at kissing Ronald Reagan's ass in an airport hangar. He does great at "relaxed, sarcastic and comfortable with himself" when he's the venerated senior member of the old boys club, but when you only have to whip Rudi 911, Mittens Romney, Popcorn-Fried Squirrel, the internet phenomenon known as Ron Paul.

To put this another way: It's easy to grin when your ship has come in and you've got the stock market beat. But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile with Obama's right foot in his seat...

Genesis, actually Obama has done very well in some debates. He crushed Hillary in Texas, for example, one of the few I actually watched from beginning to end. He lost the Texas primary because of Hillary's 3 am ad among other last minute attacks. The other being the Pennsylvania one, which was a "who bangs up on Obama the most" debate. But Obama has always looked sincere, poised, presidential and in charge of the issues. He just needed to get the experience of having the smart ass answer at "gotcha" questions.

McCain is a terrible speaker, I took the time to watch some of his town halls, Republican debates during the primary, honestly he is a horrible debater.

My prediction of McCain in debates: People will see the projection of a man who doesn't even believe what he is saying, really, who looks totally uncomfortable around people (a fault I sometimes have myself, but I'm not running for President) and who just oozes with old-fashioned attitudes and ideas. McCain just doesn't sound and look Presidential, most people don't know that because they don't actually watch or listen to him, that's why debates are there. And they will see a man on the edge of anger and contempt at Obama and any kind of opposition to his ideas. He won't lost, but people will feel a certain bitterness about the man, he can't hide forever.

I'm not saying McCain's people won't prep him up a bit, they will and he'll have his great answers, but Obama will come out in control. At least, that's my prediction based on my perspective of what I have learned and seen of these 2.

I can't wait for the debates and no Saturday is not really a debate, it's a forum, I think more like one will speak after the other kind of thing, with audience questions.

For now, I can't wait for the Dem convention, I think people will be surprised at how persuasive it will be and some doubters of Obama will surprise themselves by feeling enthusiastic about him...but like I said there will always be a small portion who will never like or vote for Obama.

No, Saturday is not a debate. Each of them will have 1 hour.

But I trust Senator Obama to do well. This will be different since he will debate against a republican. He had to be be careful against Clinton. He will take off the gloves against McBushSame.

No need to get nasty, I'm not the enemy and I think I stated my worry in my post,So why the fuck are you asking?

You don't win the ad wars by using intellectual arguments. You win the ad wars by appealing to people's emotions and values. I highly recommend all Democrats watch PBS's special about the art of persuasion:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/persuaders/

So far, Obama's campaign message has hardly attacked McCain as a completely unappealable candidate. It's tried to talk policy and it makes me snore. His ads are all weak.

You're right.
Now is the time to define and refine the campaign based on the early glimpse of Republican strategies, changing events, etc etc.
McCain and Cohorts would probably be wise to take a week off before their Convention, but I think they'll be too frightened to take the almost automatic drop in the polls during the lapse in the campaign.

How is VA that close with McCain holding a noticeable lead among independents? Are they that small of a percentage of the electorate in VA?

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Interesting fact. 65% of the new voters in Virginia since January are under the age of 35. Supposedly there are $200,000 new voters so far in Virginia which if they voted WILL tip the scale in Obama's favor.

Another interesting fact is that right after the Dem convention, swarms of Obama volunteers will be out there registering voters and talking to neighbors in neighborhoods to vote for Obama. My mother will be traveling to Oregon and Nevada to register voters.

Those ads have worked by drastically raising Obama's unfavorables. Oops she did it again(sorry)

Jonze are you SERIOUS? I GURANTEE you have never run for ANYTHING in your entire life. Obama has been campaigning almost nonstop for 2 years. He needs the rest. Speaking of rest, I didn't hear you saying this when McCain takes every weekend off.

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Eric, this is the kind of stupid framing we expect from the MSM, but not from TPM. Obama is virtually tied with McCain in two states that Bush won in 2004 and that's bad news for Obama! Bush only won Nevada by three points, but Virginia was a landslide.

Obama is staying close or leading in many similar states - this is a good thing, Eric! Tell me what new states McCain is adding to the Republican column.

Uh, Jonze, McCain has taken every weekend off for months. His nomination was sewn up long before Obama's was. Obama has been campaigning every week and weekend and this is the first break he's had since the primaries.

Go back and look at McCain's weekend schedule since last December if you don't believe me. I am on a media list and have been keeping track of it.

I know McCain has taken Sundays off, if not weekends, but nobody notices that. They notice when Obama is sunning on a Hawaiian beach for a week though, a mere 90 days out of a damn important election. People also see a 72 yr old John McCain stumping in key swing states while a 47 yr old Barack Obama needs a weeklong+ vacation.

I understand that McCain essentially had months off between March and June, however most don't care to realize that and perception is reality. And the perception is is that McCain has been front and center of this whole Russia/Georgia/S.Ossetia battle while Obama is vacationing in Hawaii.

Perception is reality.

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