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Polls: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Three Key Battleground States
A new set of swing-state polls show Barack Obama narrowly ahead in three key swing states, all of which voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004:
• The new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, within the ±4% margin of error.
• The new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, within the ±4% margin of error.
• Meanwhile, a new University of Minnesota poll gives Obama 48% to McCain's 38% -- but the pollster's analysis finds that McCain could carry the state if he picks Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.
All of these states voted for John Kerry in 2004 by margins of only one to three points, so expect them to be closely contested from now through November.
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I'd like to say that the MN poll result is good news, but any analysis that comes to the conclusion that Pawlenty could deliver the state to McCain can't really be trusted.
Obama will win MN and it won't be that close.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 21, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
NPR had the chair of the Minnesota Republican Party on last night, who argued that Minnesotans go big for the homeboy. And pointed to Mondale winning the state in 1984. Not sure if I buy it, but that was his thinking...
August 21, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look, if I were McCain, Portman or Pawlenty would be on the top of my list. But I also don't think they would fundamentally shake up the race.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 21, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pawlenty is not as popular as you would think. He narrowly won and without a plurality of votes due to a 3rd viable party here. He is too socially conservative to appeal to most MN independents who tend to be moderate.
I think Obama will easily take MN regardless of the VP - Pawlenty would help turn out republicans who would vote for MC Cain anyway and therefore probably hurt Franken's Senate race but I very much doubt he'd help deliver Minnesota to Mc Cain.
August 21, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is awful!! The campaign is over, put someone else up at convention. Obama doesn't know what he's doing! I just wish he'd follow my internet advic--what? He's ahead now? W...What?! You mean I should take all polls pre-convention with a grain of salt and look at a host of things to determine campaign viability instead of living and dying by the most recent poll??!
CRAZY TALK.
August 21, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Settle down Beavis. Obama did need to start hitting hard, and I think the last 1/2 day they unleashed some good stuff. The trends have been bad tho. They didn't need to wait so long so the race would get so close, but it's nice to see they're ready to play hardball now.
August 21, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tim "Didn't there use to be a bridge here?" Pawlenty would help McCrazy win Minnesota? Riiiight.
I just checked and in the most recent poll I could find his approve / diasapprove numbers were only 53 / 45. Not terrible but not exactly suggestive of coattails.
August 21, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm..that Penn. number seems too close. But good news he's still ahead.
August 21, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good news for a change. How will the gloom-and-doomers spin this in a negative way?
I'm hoping the VP choice and the newly aggressive Obama will bring us even bigger numbers.
August 21, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
---analysis finds that McCain could carry the state if he picks Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.---
LOL!! Yeah, that's why T-Paw won by 1% in the last gub. election here! ROFLMAO! 45 to 46%. He's really got no hold what so ever on the voters here in MN. He's a wet blanket, a lame duck, who barely squeaked it in 2006. I would say the populance here think he's about as exciting as plain oatmeal.
August 21, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win here, no doubt, even with T-Paw on the ticket.
August 21, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's supposed to win there...he's supposed to win all three...plus he needs the additional ones Kerry didn't win...this analysis stuff isn't really as hard as it looks...
August 21, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
A win is a win!
August 21, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama wins, NH, IOWA AND New Mexico---he wins the election, because he wouldn't need Florida and Ohio.
August 21, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Karl Rove's electoral map has Minnesota in blue. He also has Obama up in electoral votes 260-194, with New Hampshire as the only blue state in the tossup category. If Obama takes Virginia, or Nevada and New Mexico, or Colorado and New Hampshire, he's over the top.
August 21, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the first time since the primaries ended, the computer simulations by pro-Obama Nate Siver at fivethirtyeight.com have McCain more likely to win in November than Obama (a 52.1% chance of a McCain win) -- due to McCain being ahead now in OH, FL, MO, VA, and NV.
On this date in 2004, Kerry had 286 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com while Obama has 264 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com today.
August 21, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You should take any PA poll right now with a HUGE grain of salt. (They under report the Philadelphia area ALL THE TIME). The Philadelphia suburbs were deep red for most of my lifetime, and now they are almost blue. The middle of the state is still deep, deep red but Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will carry this state easily for O.
August 21, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses. Seven houses.
August 21, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I think Obama will win in Minnesota but lose and lose badly in Pennsylvania. His Glitzkrieg during the primaries was aggressive and insulting as were his "bitter" comments as was his "sweetie" reaction in that Detroit car factory. Pennsylvanians will reject him despite the efforts of that state's very talented governor.
August 21, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Add the Doug Wilder/Tom Bradley factor and is he ahead? Bet not! McCain/Clinton 2008!
August 21, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kerry won NH in 2004.
If the only non-Kerry states that Obama wins are IA and NM, then he will get 263 electoral votes.
Obama needs 269 to tie and let the House decide, or 270 to win outright.
August 21, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink