« Obama Campaign Quietly Airs Second Version Of "Low Road" Ad | Home | Bayh: Obama Has Not Asked Me To Be His Veep »
Poll: Obama's Core Groups Launch Him To Six-Point Lead Over McCain
A new AP/Ipsos poll has some good news for Barack Obama, with him leading John McCain thanks to big advantages among his core demographics.
The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.1% margin of error. The two are tied among men, usually a GOP-leaning demographic, while Obama takes a 13-point lead with women. McCain has only a 10-point lead among whites -- compared to President Bush's 17-point lead in 2004 -- and Obama has a 55-point lead among non-whites.
Obama's lead also comes from his big advantage among younger voters, with him ahead by 30 points among voters under the age of 34.
This all runs contrary to recent polls from Rasmussen and Zogby that have shown him slipping behind McCain. Gallup also has Obama ahead today.
Advertisement
That sound you heard was sighs of relief from worry-warts (myself included) everywhere.
If McCain hasn't fundamentally changed the race by what was clearly his best week slapping Obama around, then he's in trouble. Now it'll be up to the VP selection, the conventions, and the debate as McCain's last hopes.
Plus, Obama seems to have learned how to slap back (although he needs to repeat the slap):
http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/08/05/now-im-impressed/
August 5, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
That video is awesome. It deserves to be on the front page of TPM.
August 5, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was thinking the same thing about the video. Hopefully they pick it up.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 5, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree. It was a thing of beauty. Especially considering that the whole thing arose because a voter asked "What can I do?" (just like Americans were all asking how they could sacrifice after 9/11). Would love to see Obama turn the GOP joke around -- into the GOP making fun of an individual voter's sincere effort to make a difference. The spontaneous standing ovation from the crowd at the end says it all.
August 5, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dayum. "They take pride in being ignorant" The gloves come off. Who wants to bet McCain will have surrogates out on this "Obama is taking the low road, calling us liars and ignorant. That kind of language has no business being in a Presidential campaign".
Of course then the MSM if they did their job would ask - "Well do you think Obama's energy plan really is a tire gauge?" and then "Do you not realize that all experts agree that proper tire pressure can increase fuel mileage by 2-3 percent? For that matter so does Charlie Crist, Arnold Schwarzenneger, Joe Lieberman, and the official government website on fuel consumption? And that NASCAR put out a press release attesting to that fact back in 2006 and it is available on their website to this day?"
"So if you know that Obama's plan is a lot more than a tire gauge and further know that tire pressure would reduce fuel consumption what was the point of the Obama Energy Solution tire gauge gimmick handout?"
And the GOP reply - It was a joke. We're going to have fun with our campaign. If you can't take a joke, you have the problem not us.
August 5, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that will last all of about 2 and 1/2 posts.
;)
August 5, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The video is even better than they described on dailyKos
August 5, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
55pt lead among non-whites!
Good lord!
August 5, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is August 5th. At this rate many of you will have bruxed your teeth down to the gums and/or be drunk on the bubbly before Labor Day. The only poll that matters is election day.
August 5, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, August polls don't mean shit.
BUT this at least thwarts the fucking chattering talking-heads in their tracks with their new meme:
"John McCain has now taken the lead in all the polls since his new, agressive campaign."
Doncha think?
August 5, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The reason they are chattering is because they keep bruxing their teeth over polls. But yeah, agreed.
August 5, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That will be the number the GOP rallies around.
August 5, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've got a feeling he's going to need every one of them.
August 5, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
12 point lead among "definite" voters
August 5, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is for you CT Voter...and please share it w/ Qwerty!!!
August 5, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Many in MSM have been misleading the public by leaving the impression that if McCain and Obama are close at this stage of the game in the national polls, something must be wrong with Obama's campaign. Nonsense!
"Media Hype and Election Polls (or the sky is falling)"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/
August 5, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republican convention follows the Dems by 3 days
If Obama does it right, the only question the media will be asking the week of Sept 1 is "where's George Bush"
That and who's been in the Larry Craig T-room at the airport
August 5, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bet on it. It's become a well-known tourist question, according to airport info desk staff. Who knew the Mall of American and Camp Snoopy could be topped??
http://wcco.com/topstories/Sen.Larry.Craig.2.370324.html
Expect that, and "Where is the bridge that collapsed due to lack of repair money?" (not the greatest advert for a gas tax holiday)
August 5, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, it's at the bottom of the river.
August 5, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
This cannot be right. I have been reliably informed by many (self-appointed) experts that the sky is falling and that Obama is in a crashing, burning, flaming death-spiral.
August 5, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, just yesterday somebody posted that Obama's campaign is over.
August 5, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps, over at another place of posting, Tom Daschle's execution has been postponed.
August 5, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This cannot be right. I have been reliably informed by many (self-appointed) experts that the sky is falling and that Obama is in a crashing, burning, flaming death-spiral.
Got a match for that straw man? If not, I can supply you with one. Would be fun to watch it burn.
August 8, 2008 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
WHEW!!!.. that tie few days ago gave me an headache all day. I am so fearful of that man JM becoming president I am sick to my stomach.
August 5, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
As much as I like seeing these numbers - and Obama's recent improvement in Gallup's daily tracker - just a bit of caution. The poll include 521 Dems/Dem leaners and 381 Republicans/GOP leaners. (100 apparently stuck with indie/don't know) That's a 52-38 Dem lead in party ID. I think that's a bit high - reality is probably more in the 10pt range, at most 12. (their initial party ID gap, w/o leaners, was 10pts, 45-35...Dems beat the GOP among leaners, 17-13)
Still, I'm not going to complain.
August 5, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just you wait. The Well-Oiled Republican Attack Machine is just getting warmed up!
If you thought the tire gauges were scary -- and the Paris Hilton ad -- well, they have even cleverer, more fiendish plans up their sleeve. They're just pausing at the moment, perhaps to give the attack machine a little more oil.
If we don't do precisely what I say, and do it right away, Obama is toast.
August 5, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll give you the Zogby poll but I don't consider it accurate to compare a full blown poll to the daily tracking polls. Did we learn nothing from the primaries?? Not only that, it's deja vu all over again with Rasmussen and Gallup dailies moving in opposite directions.
I take these all with a big grain of salt (what the heck does that mean anyway?). The pollsters are going to have a pretty difficult time getting their models straight this time around with all the new voter registrations, cellphone use and increased voter turnout.
August 5, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Senator Obama is ahead among women, he is ahead among low income voters, he is ahead among latinos, he is ahead among jews...
I thought they would not vote for him...
This is indeed excellent news for Senator Obama...
I am wondering if Senator Obama should wait after the democratic convention to name his VP?
Any takers?
I also hope he will continue to link McBushSame to Bush...He needs to keep mcBushsame on the defense...
I also read that Mcbushsame his reducing some ads in PA, Ohio, Iowa...I am wondering why...
Chuk Todd was indicating that McBush may decide to forget on Iowa and PA, and focus on Michigan...
The McBush campaign had spent already over 5 Millions in PA with no inroads...
August 5, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
6 months from now, we'll all look back and wonder why we ever believed any of the pollsters, who have been consistently wrong for the last 12 years. Obama will win this election by double digits!
August 5, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an aside, Zogby should get out of the polling business with their performance in the primaries.
We need rankings of polls before we lend credibility to their findings.
August 5, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Waiting for the Anti-Obama trolls to weigh in with:
"but, but, but, but the Republican Rasmussen poll is the only one that counts (and now we like Zogby too!) ... just ask Sean Hannity!"
August 5, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the swing state polling trends on the right side of the screen. Obama's doing fine. Check out New Mexico:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/nm/08-nm-pres-ge-mvo.php
August 5, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Obama is up in one poll. And Jake Tapper is still at ABC. Time to go check the air in my tires and she if I have $20 for a lap dance with Cindy.
August 5, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they did a poll of LIKELY Voters, Obama's lead would be down to just 2-3%.
And most of it was a weekend poll.
And like what Ogliberal said, this poll oversampled Democrats by 14%! Way too many Democrats in the poll.
August 5, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
However, most pollsters/analysts have stated that at this stage of the race (early), and especially this year, registered voter numbers are probably more reliable and LV results.
August 5, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
C'mon now, don't let this little statistical setback stop you. All you former Hillary supporters who know in their hearts she'd be 20 points ahead by now, all you good Right Thinking FISA Furious purists, PUMA trolls, and just general worry-warts, get to work and dig that dark cloud out of this silver lining. We're counting on you!
August 5, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're already at it as you can see above:
too many Dems polled, oversampling...
It's August 5th....
But Zogby and Rasmussen show McCain ahead....
Just like the USA Today Gallup poll 2 weeks ago showing McBush up by 4.
If Gramps is close, or ahead, it's the "Rosetta Stone" of polling.
If Obama's ahead, then it's early, too many Dems polled, doesn't mean shit.
August 5, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I answered you earlier Bucky. As the emperor said
"too many notes." Too many polls, too many trolls.
August 5, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Gramps is close, or ahead, it's the "Rosetta Stone" of polling.
If Obama's ahead, then it's early, too many Dems polled, doesn't mean shit.
Whereas if the poll shows McSame up and Obama down...
You might want to consider having the same standard for yourself as for other posters.
Just sayin'.
August 8, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right.
So when Obama flip flops on Iraq, campaign finance, FISA and offshore drilling, it's all Hillary's fault.
August 5, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who?
August 5, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
So - which one do you think is right, Eric? ;)
August 5, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
August 5, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
August 5, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, I am old LOL. I just don't trust the younger voters to actually get up off their behinds and go vote.
For all of you under 34, you can make a difference. You will make a difference. This one election will decide if the US has a chance to survive or if it is doomed to slavery under the Neocons.
I love my country and the Constitution has only one chance, and that is if Obama wins.
Please get out there, register other young folks to vote, talk, talk, and talk why they MUST vote.
Please :)
August 5, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll try, Dad. I might have some video gaming to catch up on, though.
August 5, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll try, Dad. I might have some video gaming to catch up on, though.
August 5, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Point proven. I am a female you moron. I guess too many video games keep you from seeing many of us real life.
August 5, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
"... and by 55 points among blacks, Hispanics and other minorities, the poll shows."
So minorities all get lumped together as one now? I want some specific numbers on each damn constituency!
August 5, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we throw the term flip-flop under the bus?
August 5, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
God yes!
I'll pay money if that's what it takes - anything.
August 5, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a story now that at the Ohio event some photographer in the press section yelled out that Obama should recite the Pledge of Allegiance, and as the crowd was shouting the heckler down Obama quieted the crowd and led the crowd in saying it.
Now this was most likely a trap of sorts because if Obama didn't after urged by a "citizen" McCain would have ran an ad campaign on it, and if Obama botched a word or two it would have led to an attack campaign as well.
Obama nailed it.
August 5, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
We still need to worry!
"McCain has only a 10-point lead among whites -- compared to President Bush's 17-point lead in 2004 -- "
To me this indicates upcoming slippage - people telling pollsters one thing and actually voting against Obama as happenened in the primaries.
We need to keep saying Obama is someone we know and can trust--- He went to Harvard Law and taught Constitutional Law at the Conservative University of Chicago. One of his fellow Professors Antonin Scalia (who also left to end up in a very prestigious public sector position) had favorable remarks about Mr. Obama.
August 5, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Women would rather carpool with Barack.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0532505820080805
Take that, pet owners!
August 5, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is god news, but its only one poll. does this pollster have a good track record?
August 5, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't bet your thorax on any pollster, franky.
August 5, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen has become blatantly racist. Let me say it again. Rasmussen has become blatantly racist.
The sequence of events was this:On June 30th, the McCain campaign ran an ad where they pasted Obama's face on the statue of Liberty, on the four presidents on Mount Rushmore, and on U.S. currency. They can say---"joking" and Obama could lightly mock them as he did in Missouri.
Then they ran the Paris, Britney ad----and while some made the racial connections---Obama did not. Rasmussen at that point---took a poll asking people if that ad was racist. (only 22 percent said yes). Then they triangulated a question about whether Obama was playing the race card---by implication connecting what he said before the Hilton ad to the ad which came later----and got a damaging figure above 50 percent---exactly what McCain would hope for.
Let me say it several times---this impugns Rasmussen's integrity and makes a lot of what they do suspect----Rasmussen has become blatantly racist. Rasmussen has become blatantly racist. Rasmussen has become blatantly racist. Rasmussen has become blatantly racist.
August 5, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kjoe,
I agree 100%. The Rasmussen poll has a conservative slant and many of its authors who publishes daily articles are republicans are conservative democrats. ITS AN IRRELEVANT POLL.
August 5, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope finally now people can start remembering that it's only August and that Obama is doing a lot better than some people have been saying he's doing. =)
August 5, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
O there you are.
I've been giving you props for pointing out that he is doing better than some people seem to think or at least say.
August 5, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? I hadn't read any of the comments. I'll have to go back and read them all. ;D How nice of you, Tena. Such a sweetheart.
August 5, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a drop for Obama from his 7-point lead in the last AP/Ipsos poll in June. Ipsos is always biased toward the Democratic candidate for some reason.
Pro-Obaam Zogby now has McCain ahead by 1 in his regular phone poll (not the bogus online interactive poll).
I wish we could see some polls this week from OH, CO, VA, PA, MI, NM, IN, and NH. I'm tired of polls from non-competitive states like Alabama, New York, and Washington.
August 5, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is one of the most unreliable pollsters his election. On FiveThirtyEight.com's pollster ratings, Zogby is second from the bottom. The only pollster who's done worse is the Columbus Dispatch.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
I just brush Zogby aside, honestly.
August 5, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
often, it is the way questions are posed, and their misleading implications which are more disturbing than the numerical results.
The numbers can be anticipated---when the "right" questions are asked. Rasmussen is getting horrible on this.
August 5, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
When push comes to shove, Rasmussen is a Republican first and a pollster second -- and for the GOP, push definitely HAS come to shove. It's every hack to the front.
August 5, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink