I see you've been taking poll-reading classes from CNN because what the christ seven points isn't a "slim" lead by any standard. At any rate, last month's Quinnipiac polls from these three states:

PA: Obama 49, McCain 42
OH: Obama 46, McCain 44
FL: Obama 46, McCain 44

(Also: the period during which these polls were conducted was 8/17-24, i.e. almost entirely before the Biden announcement, which doesn't tell us a whole lot there.)

Argh! Just as one of the posters blogged here yesterday, the polls are going to change. Looks like panic-mongering.

and he will continue to slip unless he hammers mccain to the ground....

Qunnipiac, ARG, Research2000, Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, PPP etc, all say something different. One poll doesn't determine where the election is going.

Eric,

You've become obsessed with the polls.

Let's talk about the poles that matter: The poles Cindy McCain will use while performing an exotic dance for anyone earning more than 10,000 McCain points!

Don't expect a Biden bounce. Would have happened already and we're not seeing anything in the daily tracking polls. In fact, Rasmussen is back to tied today, which likely means that Obama's numbers on Sunday and Monday kind of stunk. But there should be a convention bounce, maybe even a significant one. For that to happen, Hillary needs to hit it out of the park tonight. (I think Michelle's speech last night probably helped as well, but it was too late to affect today's trackers.) I'm sick of looking at results like this latest Q polls and seeing McCain getting 85-90% GOP support in Florida and Ohio while Obama struggles to hit 80% in Dem support. This is where the GOP is smarter than us - they don't evne like McCain but they know the stakes. For them, it's not about grudges or proving a point or making a statement - it's about winning. If Dem party ID weren't so much higher than the GOP's this year, McCain would have a clear lead in many of these states.

I think the convention will change things pretty quickly. But it does hinge on a couple of folks named Clinton, especially the one speaking tonight.

I sit here in Ohio. I run a retail business in a Dayton suburb and we service people around the entire area. I have seen the impact of the McCain smear ads on the working class in this area (one of the ten fastest dying cities in the United States) and there has been a shift against Obama with the smear ads. Obama needs to be going far more negative. A lot people who were going to vote for Obama have been shifting because they believe that he has no policy position, will take away their guns and will raise taxes.

For those of you downplaying this - get wise, same trend as we have seen in the last two presidential elections with the Republican bitch slap tactic.

Has TPM endorsed McWar like the media have? It seems like it...

Sad, really!!

I disagree with the analysis, Eric.

I think we are just beginning to see Barack's improvement in the polls. I think many Dems including myself were worried about the lack of a strong aggressive message. But Obama and the campaign have clearly gotten the message.

Imho it takes time for that sentiment and the campaign message to find its way down through the corporate media and into the homes of people who aren't following intensely nor commenting on TPM, etc.

I feel much more confident than a week ago. And I believe the polls are just beginning to bear that out.

you should definitely be ashamed of your unpatriotic desire to disprove our racist values. an apology would help too!

Since this is a polling thread of sorts: CO-04: Markey (D) 50, Musgrave (R-inc) 43.

Erik is a defeatist.

Hope or fear, people. It's your choice.

And no, not just your own personal one. Hope begets hope.

Clinton supporters, Edwards supporters, and all the rest of you out there... if you're tired of the Republicans destruction of America and want a change, just say it! Say it now!

Because I don't know about you, but I want change. This country *needs* to change course now!

PA still looks OK.

FL was always worrisome, although Biden's strong pro-Israel past might help there.

OH is the one that looks problematic. I think Obama needs to double down on the DHL type stuff and bring NAFTA into the mix there.

I feel the proper way to desensationalize this headline would be to say: "Quinnipiac: Obama's lead drops in OH, FL and PA". Another way would be the reverse: "Quinnipiac: McCain gains in OH, FL and PA".

"Slipping" improperly suggests he is about to lose his lead, and "3 largest swing states" attaches an unwarranted amount of urgency and importance to the poll. "Obama slipping in 3 largest swing states" in itself generalizes the results of the one poll and makes it sound like this is the general state of affairs rather than indicating the singularity of the poll's results, as mentioning the source in the headline immediately suggests.

While sensationalism is a common phenomenon in the mainstream media, TPM sure doesn't have to engage in it.

here is the deal. the corporations decide. they own the media. if they choose to push and pull mccain to victory...they certainly can. the question is will they see their own longterm interest or their shorterm impulse gratification. if they force mccain on the country, america's all important image will suffer another huge blow but they can continue to rape the country for another four years. we await their decision and august was not a good sign as to what they are going to do. neither is past history.

"crush him in one of the largest electoral votes in the last one hundred plus years."

Shades of Bob Dole!

I tend to agree. Too many new voters that the poundits do not have access to in their polling and prognosticating, and those new voters are 9-1 in favor of Democrats.

It's tight in North Carolina. McCain has absolutely no ground game there. Obama could definitely win there.

PA is "historically close"?
2004: Kerry 51, Bush 49
2000: Gore 51, Bush 46
1996: Clinton 49, Dole 40
1992: Clinton 45, Bush 36
Average: Dem 49, Rep: 42.75

Over 6 points on average. Hardly "historically close"