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Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Pennsylvania
A new Franklin and Marshal College poll shows Barack Obama with a narrow lead in the big swing state of Pennsylvania, a place where his primary loss caused some to question his electability.
The numbers, among likely voters: Obama 46%, McCain 41%.
The pollster's analysis shows that both candidates have a hurdle to overcome here: "If McCain's primary difficulty is that many believe he will carry on the policies of an unpopular administration, Obama's primary difficulty is his perceived inexperience."
That said, Obama can take some encouragement from the fact that he's ahead right now, though this state will continue to be contested through November.
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McCain has been pounding Obama in ads there and more appearances on the ground too. He really had hoped to move the needle by now, but he hasn't done it.
Obama's up by 5 amongst likely voters and up by 8 amongst registered voters, so the "truth lies somewhere between."
It will be a battleground, but it continues to lean Obama.
BTW, funny how the Philly news covered these poll results as...you guessed it, "Bad news for Obama," check it out:
http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/it-was-funny-now-its-surreal/
August 13, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Same old world class punditry.
"The economy is in the tank along with Bush's approval ratings, gas is at record highs, America's fed up with the Republicans and this is a banner year for Democrats. Obama should be ahead by 45 points!!!"
August 13, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's good to read. Thanks.
August 13, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Remember, if he's not up by 15% in every state and national poll, it's bad news for Obama. Why can't he pull away?
August 13, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
It confirms what Chuk Todd said. McBushSame is spending huge amount of money there, and he is not getting grounds. This is a good sign for Senator Obama.
August 13, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has one field office in PA; Obama has 18 (source: Nate Silver's website). I have a hard time believing McCain will contest the Keystone State until the last week in October.
August 13, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can't win the big States, in deed!
August 13, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
"That said, Obama can take some encouragement from the fact that he's ahead right now, though this state will continue to be contested through November."
I've never understood why you guys include these short, blatantly obvious points at the end of every poll summation.
And why not summarize some of the info in the polling details provided by the pollster?
August 13, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric- I know language is all subjective, but five points is a "narrow" lead?
I'm starting to think Josh may be the only person who workd for this website who DOESN'T default to the "this is bad news for Obama" meme. Exactly when does a steady lead of 5-7 points (which Obama has had in PA for over a month) become a solid lead?
August 13, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seems to me that 5-7 points is really close, barely over the error. I know he's been consistent, but a "solid lead" would probably be twice that. Of course this is all subjective.
August 13, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can already hear the pundits saying why isn't Obama up by a gazillion points.
August 13, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Big lead, narrow lead, margin of error, underperforming...Blah, Blah, Blah. A win is a win!
August 13, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
It could be worse. Have you seen the myriad of terms to describe stocks? The P/E ratio. YPEG. PSR. EBITDA. A political read might go something like this:
"McCain's q-ratio has steadied but his P/E ratio and baggage (both in deadbeat lobbyists and around his eyes) have increased."
August 13, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is terrible news for Obama.
August 13, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Especially when you consider the Constitutional Amendment where electoral votes are no longer awarded to the winner, but to the candidate who beats the spread.
August 13, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm confident that the media will properly contextualize this by pointing out that Obama is outperforming both Gore's (+4) and Kerry's (+2) final results in Pennsylvania.
Then again, I'm told by smart people in the media that Obama should be up by eleventy-one points. Clearly this means that Obama is DOOMED!
I can't wait until November, when an Obama win by a 100 vote margin in the electoral college and tieing among white men will be interpreted as a worrying sign of weakness in the upcoming administration.
August 13, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that within the margin of error introduced by the Bradley Effect? If you believe in the Bradley Effect, you have to believe we're on the verge of a nightmare. Losing Pennsylvania would be a disaster.
August 13, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy, there have been several articles lately outlining why 'the Bradley Effect' is a myth. It was just a conjecture used a few decades ago by certain pollsters to explain their poor performance in a few isolated races. Yet, there are bad polls in every election, but we do not come up with bogus pop-psychology theories to explain those. I personally call it 'the Bradley Excuse.'
Regardless, the fact that most pollsters these days (most notably, SUSA and Rasmussen) use computers to conduct polling which eliminates the supposed psychological underpinning of the effect.
August 13, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Stroszek. There is Bradley effect, and it exists in old Dem states of the northeast, like OH, PA, RI, and MA. There is also reverse Bradley effect in the crescent of largely black states from MS through VA, perhaps MD. It's not huge in the northeast, but worth a couple of points. O underperformed PA polls modestly, no question. But O overperformed VA, NC, MS, GA, AL, and SC, in some cases by astro-margins. The best statistical summary of this is on 538.com, you should check it out. The real point is O is fine right now. MI is the real prize, not PA. MI could be flipped. And it's not or much less prone to racial weirdness in poll data, the states south and west of it appear immune. A
August 13, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read 538 religiously, and the point of that article is that there is no such thing as the Bradley Effect. A 1.8 variance in an entire region means the polls were basically on the nose, and many pollsters were even more accurate than that. Here is a quote directly from Nate:
The title of the piece is, in fact, 'The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect.'
I suggest you stop misrepresenting other people's writing and stop pushing this bogus theory.
August 13, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
In fact, if a single firm got just a 1.8 variance in a race between white candidates, it would be considered outstanding work.
No offense, but your comment is one of the silliest things I've ever read.
August 13, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
5 point lead, 3.9% margin of error is small.
Also remember that Obama underperformed his polls in the primary so we can expect some slippage.
Why isn't the media jumping on McCain's gaffes about Georgia?
Quoting Wikopedia and not getting the history of Ossetia correct?
We seem to be accepting that South Ossetia was Georgian territory and Georgia was right to send in their army to quiet the Pro-Russia residents.
I'm doubious.
August 13, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the best news you've got is that you're not getting more of an ass whuppin' than you're getting, that's not real good news.
August 13, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Bradley effect is in every pollstars calculation this year. That is why a lot of Republicans are worried that the polls are not acurate. The polls are being wighted heavily in favor of McCain to account for the Bradley effect.Internally they know those are not the numbers they are getting, they are getting more like 8-9 points.
August 13, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
What evidence do you have to support this?
August 13, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing. I don't know why some many progressives push this bullshit. Idiocy, I guess...
August 13, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm curious why we're looking at likely voters now. Likely voters are only looked at in the Sept/Oct period. He's ahead by 8 points in registered voters. That's good enough for me.
August 13, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please stop posting "likely voters" when you have the more reliable "registered voters" number. No pollster worth his salt would use likely voters as a genuine indicator of the race at this point. Not until October when full registration and GOTV drives are in effect does the likely voter screen matter.
Realize that for many pollsters the determinant of "likely voter" is simply age and race and not actual willingness to vote.
August 13, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink