Poll: Obama Leading By 10 Points -- Among Working Class Whites!
Now this should put the "Obama's working class whites problem" meme to rest. Buried in the new Washington Post poll is a startling number:
But even among white workers -- a group of voters that has been targeted by both parties as a key to victory in November -- Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the more empathetic candidate.
In an even bigger shocker, it turns out that Obama's advantage is partly driven by the fact that he's better on an issue of importance to these voters: Health care. Seven in ten working class whites polled say government should focus on getting people like them health insurance they can afford, a key Obama position.
If this poll is accurate, McCain is dramatically under-performing among these voters. Will we be hearing a "McCain's working class whites problem" meme anytime soon?
Late Update: Atrios on Obama's "problem" with these voters: "Nobody could have predicted that it's as real as his Latino and Jewish voter problems."















>>Will we be hearing a "McCain's working class whites problem" meme anytime soon?
No. No, we will not. Moving on...
August 4, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Time for the MSM to the rescue: Things that can't fit in their race-based pro-GOP narratvies get ignored.
Don't expect the WaPo to have a big headline about McCain's Working Class White problem.
August 4, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
mcThuseleh probably already knew this, hence last week's desperation.
August 4, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Someone tell the respondents to the Rasmussen tracking poll today...sigh. I know, I know, tracking is bullshit, unless Obama's way up.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 4, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
"A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters."
The attacks are working. As long as this campaign isn't about the issues, about the future, Obama will struggle. If McCain's wins the indies - the swing among this group is incredible - game over, because enough Hillary dead-enders won't come back, eliminating most or all of the Dem party ID advantage.
Many will say, "ignore these polls", but I can't. It's disturbing. The Obama camp needs to regain the narrative, which will be difficult given the complete idiocy of the media.
August 4, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
After seeing the Troll Traffic on Eric's last thread (Morning Roundup), I wonder how they will try to spin this one.
August 4, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Thanks for the laugh, Greg.
As soon as the "Obama has a problem with Hispanic voters" theme dies a rightful death, maybe this one will. Which gives the "Obama has a problem with...." theme an indefinite life expectancy.
August 4, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't even remember McCain making a "bitter" comment!
August 4, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Still trying to find out where you got that cute logo.
August 4, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
And you just gotta love the Post's headline: "Obama leads, but doubts prevail".
That's not really reflective of the results, IMO.
August 4, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Conducted in mid-July?
August 4, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. Polls conducted four months before an election are infinitely less significant than polls conducted three and a half months before an election.
August 4, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Correction: June 18 to July 7. This poll is exactly a month old this Thursday.
August 4, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which means the poll won't reflect his dip in working class support after killing those steel mill employees on July 20th. Good point.
August 4, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well at least the italics, exclamation marks, front page billing on TPM home and the "OMG OMG OMG I wet my pants" from Greg is good enough for morale boost.
August 4, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the "working class whites" meme arrived with a storm of hype so I expect it to leave in the same manner.
August 4, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would imagine the point is that this was being shopped around as a weakness when actually it was not... hence the over the top attacks which will have a short shelf life much like our fascination with all things shiny and pretty.
August 4, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
"As a group, they are somewhat less likely to be Republicans than all adults under age 65 and are also less likely to be registered to vote." ...a vital constituency...
August 4, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I suppose if some of them are not registered now, they can NOT be registered before the election. Never mind any alleged 50-state voter registration efforts.
August 4, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought he was working a 57 state plan...?
August 4, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
...plus the 2 he hadn't been to yet...59 State plan.
August 4, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you want him to include Czechoslovakia too?
August 4, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
...I think his 200,000 likely voters from Berlin will be enough to carry it for him.
August 4, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I think he'll need to register the Green Bay Packers too (or was it the Pittsburgh Steelers?).
August 4, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
...or his uncle who liberated Auschwitz...
August 4, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or the women who want their contraception covered in their insurance plans, as John's good old buddy Carly advocates.
August 4, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
...or all those unemployed oilworkers getting ready to start work now that your guy's come to his senses...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080802/pl_bloomberg/am9crhuzlqai
August 4, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
You mean now that your guy's come to his senses.
http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0WTTko8I5dIUesA3wPQtDMD;_ylu=X3oDMTBjMHZkMjZyBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNzcg--/SIG=12o73p44f/EXP=1217950908/**http%3a//www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php%3ffa=PAGE.view%26pageId=71107
Oh, I forgot, it's courageous leadership when your guy flip-flops...
August 4, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
...nope, common sense when oils at $140 a barrel... let's see:
FISA...check
Offshore drilling...check
If you can just get your guy to reconsider his stance on taxes, Government take over of healthcare, school choice and illegal immagration, he may have a chance.
August 4, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
So you agree that McCain flip flops. That's good.
Illegal immigration! Love it. Another one where your guy saw common sense, apparently. He says during a GOP primary debate that he wouldn't even vote for his own bill??? Hardly courageous, principled leadership.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/us/politics/30text-debate.html?_r=1&sq=transcript&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&scp=2&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1217865931-beKP7wdnJQ9mMKpi2l7aKA
August 4, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and still more ready to lead than your guy (Brittney or Paris).
August 4, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
But by your own words earlier on this site, someone who flip flops this much (72 at last count) is not leading, but following:
http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/flipflops
August 4, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that the best you can come up with?
August 4, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Greg:
This poll is old - taken from June 18 to July 7. During this period, Obama was leading by 5-6% on many days of the Gallup tracking poll.
I wonder what a similar poll would say today... The closest I can think of is the Gallup aggregates by education among whites, which appears to contradict these findings:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108046/Candidate-Support-Education-Among-Whites.aspx
August 4, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Obama wasn't leading by 5 - 6 points on many of the days, and, in fact, in was tied with McCain at one point in June:
A href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow-General-Election.aspx">Historical Gallup Daily Tracking
August 4, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whoops, sorry for crappy htmling:
Historical Gallup Tracking Poll
August 4, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link - I didn't see that. I was looking at this:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108835/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Slight-Advantage.aspx
Which gives a closer look at most of the June 18-July 7 period, and on 7/14 days, Obama leads by 4-6% (I said 5-6, but 4-6 seems more appropriate).
August 4, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess it's all in how you choose to spin it.
Days where O lead is 4 or greater (just from that graph)=7. Days where O lead is 3 or less: 7.
August 4, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very true. Still, I'd like to see the results of a similar poll taken more recently, particularly after last week's McShenanigans.
It seems a little weird how Gallup's "Key Indicators" does not include any income-based differentials...
August 4, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, this is simple for the spinmeisters in the media:
"True, Obama may have a 10 point lead amongst working class whites, but, why isn't it higher? The fact that 37% of working class whites polled would vote for McCain shows that Obama is very weak in this historically Democratic constituency."
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
August 4, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I love the question, "why isn't it higher"? Like if you don't win by a certain margin, it's not legitimate. Obama only has to win this election by 1 vote and he will move from hell to the no, to hail to the chief!
August 4, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, I hate to pee on the picnic, but the group measured in the Kaiser poll is the working poor, not the working class. The working class is generally defined as people with no education past high school. If income is used, the cut-off is usually 50 k. Whites in this group went overwhelmingly to Hillary and the last poll I saw that checked for this found that McCain was winning whites in this group by 17 percent.
While I'll grant that these categories are arbitrary, the working poor has long leaned Democrats. It's the white working class that leans heavily Republican. Believe me, if Obama were leading by 10 among what every pollster and every social scientist understands to be the white working class, he'd be up nationally by 15.
I understand liberal bloggers seizing on this poll, but it's nothing more than spin.
August 4, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh ye purveyor of reality based information...shame on you...get back in line! Now, give me an "O"...give me a "B"....
August 4, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh ye slinger of McCainist BS, take your phony arguments and stick 'em where the sun don't shine...
August 4, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't believe I've made one argument today...I have commented on a few...
August 4, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
To be more exact, the sample in the Kaiser poll includes people generally identified as poor--people, I believe, who earn 15 k or less--plus some proportion of the working class. Given the Dems traditionally win the votes of the poor by a huge majority, it's not a surprise the sample-which includes the working poor--would lean Democratic.
August 4, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
It won't kill the meme because the media will ignore this, as usual. Like you said, it was buried. They don't care, they have their meme and they'll fill it.
McCain's white/latino/jewish/black problem? Hell no, McCain is their bright shiny little star, he has no problems in their mind.
August 4, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I hope Obama wins. And I hope he leads by 10 points among working class whites. But saying one month-old poll "demolishes" anything is just stupid. Don't you people know how silly you look when every favorable poll is treated as gospel, and every unfavorable poll is rationalized away? Do you really thinnk elections are won by wishful thinking?
I shouldn't be surprised, though. A lot of you are the same idiiots who think the best strategy for electing a black president is to call anyone who campaigns against him a racist. Yeah, that'll get people on your side.
August 4, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
About time responsible organization like Kaiser and Harvard put their money where their mouth is. Perhaps, this kind of polling will shut the media talking heads up.
Too much spin on TV only makes an average voter confused. I am sick and tired of 21st century journalist spin something that is not true.
August 4, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
From this post: "it turns out that Obama's advantage is partly driven by the fact that he's better on an issue of importance to these voters: Health care. Seven in ten working class whites polled say government should focus on getting people like them health insurance they can afford, a key Obama position."
But from the blurb from poll on the front page: "Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over Republican Sen. John McCain among the nation's low-wage workers, [b]but many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system[/b], according to a new national poll."
I don't see how you can make this post claiming it's about health care without addressing that quote.
August 4, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok - given his standing in the polls, can someone explain where the demographic problem is coming from? If he's ahead among all these voters, why's the race so tight?
August 4, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
If he's leading by ten among white working class voters, then he must be trailing significantly in some other demographic if polls are right suggesting that he's only got about 2 points on McCain.
August 4, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
with all due respect, a 10% lead in the constituency most devastated by Bush-McCain is not that great. It would help if Obama showed a little more fight and a little more resolve. just remind me again why Democrats are so unwilling to fight for their causes.
August 4, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
"There is nothing to worry about, go to your homes, the Wizard has everything under control,"
August 4, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
A month old poll from the time when Obama led by nine.
Now it's even and Obama is a celebrity not a politician. The working class is exactly who the "celebrity" ad was targeted for...
August 4, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Led by 9 in what universe?
Go to the Gallup tracking history, and he never once lead by 9 during the time period that the poll was conducted, and, in fact, they were tied during a couple of the days.
August 4, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Old poll not worth talking about.
Mccain is in the lead to stay now unless the Superdelagates dump Oilbama for Hillary.
August 4, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Expect the mainstream media not make an issue for McCain. Can someone say, 'double standard.' The rules are different for McCain.
This poll is not surprising. Why wouldn't working class white folks support Obama, he has better platform to address their concerns not McPervert.
August 4, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
When are Latinos going to become an official Obama constituency? The media still pushes the theme that he only has blacks and young people on lock and Hispanics are up for grabs when every single general election poll thus far has shown otherwise.
August 4, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well gee - let's see - there are two conflicting polls on this page.
That's why I love polls so much.
I'll take this one - since I don't trust any of them, I'll take the ones that say what I want since the others have numbers manipulated to show what someone else wants.
I'll go with the one I want - this one. This one says that people don't give one good goddamn about Obama being a celebrity or uppity - they want solutions.
August 4, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
The working class whites are fast becoming the poor whites. The true unemployment according to shadowstats is a shocking 13.7%!
Obama needs to HAMMER the bread and butter issues home. This is where he should reprise Bill Clinton's "It's the Economy" win against the elder Bush.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/engdahl/engdahl080408.html
August 4, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please let it be true.
August 4, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Before getting too excited about these results, it is useful to note that the vote question came after thirty-five other questions that essentially asked respondents to ponder how crappy things are in the country as a whole and in their own personal economic lives. In other words, you really have to consider that responses to the vote question were heavily influenced by the placement of the question in the middle of the survey, following dozens of questions about economic conditions. If the vote question had come after dozens of questions about terrorism and foreign policy, my guess is that McCain would lead significantly among this group.
August 4, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm going with the one I like.
August 4, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are posting a poll taken almost a month ago?
August 4, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm highly confused. If Obama is leading with women, with white working classers, with blacks, with latinos - how are the polls so even? Add up all those people, its nearly the whole country. All that's not being counted is white elderly people, asians, and the rich. What is the major discrepancy which explains how this can be the situation?
August 4, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
this thread needs some troll-b-gone. if wapo can write about this poll as 'new', greg should be able to blog about it as new. the poll is 'new' today because the polling data was released today.
and since greg's point isn't about tracking, when the poll was taken is pretty much irrelevant.
August 4, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink