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Poll: Obama Leading By 10 Points -- Among Working Class Whites!

Now this should put the "Obama's working class whites problem" meme to rest. Buried in the new Washington Post poll is a startling number:

But even among white workers -- a group of voters that has been targeted by both parties as a key to victory in November -- Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the more empathetic candidate.

In an even bigger shocker, it turns out that Obama's advantage is partly driven by the fact that he's better on an issue of importance to these voters: Health care. Seven in ten working class whites polled say government should focus on getting people like them health insurance they can afford, a key Obama position.

If this poll is accurate, McCain is dramatically under-performing among these voters. Will we be hearing a "McCain's working class whites problem" meme anytime soon?


Late Update: Atrios on Obama's "problem" with these voters: "Nobody could have predicted that it's as real as his Latino and Jewish voter problems."


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>>Will we be hearing a "McCain's working class whites problem" meme anytime soon?

No. No, we will not. Moving on...

Time for the MSM to the rescue: Things that can't fit in their race-based pro-GOP narratvies get ignored.

Don't expect the WaPo to have a big headline about McCain's Working Class White problem.

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mcThuseleh probably already knew this, hence last week's desperation.

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Someone tell the respondents to the Rasmussen tracking poll today...sigh. I know, I know, tracking is bullshit, unless Obama's way up.

http://strategy08.wordpress.com

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"A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters."

The attacks are working. As long as this campaign isn't about the issues, about the future, Obama will struggle. If McCain's wins the indies - the swing among this group is incredible - game over, because enough Hillary dead-enders won't come back, eliminating most or all of the Dem party ID advantage.

Many will say, "ignore these polls", but I can't. It's disturbing. The Obama camp needs to regain the narrative, which will be difficult given the complete idiocy of the media.

After seeing the Troll Traffic on Eric's last thread (Morning Roundup), I wonder how they will try to spin this one.

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Will we be hearing a "McCain's working class whites problem" meme anytime soon?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Thanks for the laugh, Greg.

As soon as the "Obama has a problem with Hispanic voters" theme dies a rightful death, maybe this one will. Which gives the "Obama has a problem with...." theme an indefinite life expectancy.

I don't even remember McCain making a "bitter" comment!

Still trying to find out where you got that cute logo.

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And you just gotta love the Post's headline: "Obama leads, but doubts prevail".

That's not really reflective of the results, IMO.

Conducted in mid-July?

You're right. Polls conducted four months before an election are infinitely less significant than polls conducted three and a half months before an election.

Correction: June 18 to July 7. This poll is exactly a month old this Thursday.

Which means the poll won't reflect his dip in working class support after killing those steel mill employees on July 20th. Good point.

Well at least the italics, exclamation marks, front page billing on TPM home and the "OMG OMG OMG I wet my pants" from Greg is good enough for morale boost.

Well, the "working class whites" meme arrived with a storm of hype so I expect it to leave in the same manner.

I would imagine the point is that this was being shopped around as a weakness when actually it was not... hence the over the top attacks which will have a short shelf life much like our fascination with all things shiny and pretty.


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"As a group, they are somewhat less likely to be Republicans than all adults under age 65 and are also less likely to be registered to vote." ...a vital constituency...

Yes, I suppose if some of them are not registered now, they can NOT be registered before the election. Never mind any alleged 50-state voter registration efforts.

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I thought he was working a 57 state plan...?

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...plus the 2 he hadn't been to yet...59 State plan.

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Do you want him to include Czechoslovakia too?

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...I think his 200,000 likely voters from Berlin will be enough to carry it for him.

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No, I think he'll need to register the Green Bay Packers too (or was it the Pittsburgh Steelers?).

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...or his uncle who liberated Auschwitz...

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Or the women who want their contraception covered in their insurance plans, as John's good old buddy Carly advocates.

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...or all those unemployed oilworkers getting ready to start work now that your guy's come to his senses...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080802/pl_bloomberg/am9crhuzlqai

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...nope, common sense when oils at $140 a barrel... let's see:
FISA...check
Offshore drilling...check
If you can just get your guy to reconsider his stance on taxes, Government take over of healthcare, school choice and illegal immagration, he may have a chance.

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So you agree that McCain flip flops. That's good.

Illegal immigration! Love it. Another one where your guy saw common sense, apparently. He says during a GOP primary debate that he wouldn't even vote for his own bill??? Hardly courageous, principled leadership.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/us/politics/30text-debate.html?_r=1&sq=transcript&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&scp=2&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1217865931-beKP7wdnJQ9mMKpi2l7aKA

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...and still more ready to lead than your guy (Brittney or Paris).

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But by your own words earlier on this site, someone who flip flops this much (72 at last count) is not leading, but following:

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/flipflops

Is that the best you can come up with?

Greg:
This poll is old - taken from June 18 to July 7. During this period, Obama was leading by 5-6% on many days of the Gallup tracking poll.

I wonder what a similar poll would say today... The closest I can think of is the Gallup aggregates by education among whites, which appears to contradict these findings:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108046/Candidate-Support-Education-Among-Whites.aspx

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Um, Obama wasn't leading by 5 - 6 points on many of the days, and, in fact, in was tied with McCain at one point in June:

A href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow-General-Election.aspx">Historical Gallup Daily Tracking

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Whoops, sorry for crappy htmling:

Historical Gallup Tracking Poll

Thanks for the link - I didn't see that. I was looking at this:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108835/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Slight-Advantage.aspx

Which gives a closer look at most of the June 18-July 7 period, and on 7/14 days, Obama leads by 4-6% (I said 5-6, but 4-6 seems more appropriate).

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I guess it's all in how you choose to spin it.

Days where O lead is 4 or greater (just from that graph)=7. Days where O lead is 3 or less: 7.

Very true. Still, I'd like to see the results of a similar poll taken more recently, particularly after last week's McShenanigans.
It seems a little weird how Gallup's "Key Indicators" does not include any income-based differentials...

Well, this is simple for the spinmeisters in the media:

"True, Obama may have a 10 point lead amongst working class whites, but, why isn't it higher? The fact that 37% of working class whites polled would vote for McCain shows that Obama is very weak in this historically Democratic constituency."

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR MCCAIN!!!

I love the question, "why isn't it higher"? Like if you don't win by a certain margin, it's not legitimate. Obama only has to win this election by 1 vote and he will move from hell to the no, to hail to the chief!

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Okay, I hate to pee on the picnic, but the group measured in the Kaiser poll is the working poor, not the working class. The working class is generally defined as people with no education past high school. If income is used, the cut-off is usually 50 k. Whites in this group went overwhelmingly to Hillary and the last poll I saw that checked for this found that McCain was winning whites in this group by 17 percent.

While I'll grant that these categories are arbitrary, the working poor has long leaned Democrats. It's the white working class that leans heavily Republican. Believe me, if Obama were leading by 10 among what every pollster and every social scientist understands to be the white working class, he'd be up nationally by 15.

I understand liberal bloggers seizing on this poll, but it's nothing more than spin.

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Oh ye purveyor of reality based information...shame on you...get back in line! Now, give me an "O"...give me a "B"....

Oh ye slinger of McCainist BS, take your phony arguments and stick 'em where the sun don't shine...

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I don't believe I've made one argument today...I have commented on a few...

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To be more exact, the sample in the Kaiser poll includes people generally identified as poor--people, I believe, who earn 15 k or less--plus some proportion of the working class. Given the Dems traditionally win the votes of the poor by a huge majority, it's not a surprise the sample-which includes the working poor--would lean Democratic.

It won't kill the meme because the media will ignore this, as usual. Like you said, it was buried. They don't care, they have their meme and they'll fill it.

McCain's white/latino/jewish/black problem? Hell no, McCain is their bright shiny little star, he has no problems in their mind.

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Hey, I hope Obama wins. And I hope he leads by 10 points among working class whites. But saying one month-old poll "demolishes" anything is just stupid. Don't you people know how silly you look when every favorable poll is treated as gospel, and every unfavorable poll is rationalized away? Do you really thinnk elections are won by wishful thinking?

I shouldn't be surprised, though. A lot of you are the same idiiots who think the best strategy for electing a black president is to call anyone who campaigns against him a racist. Yeah, that'll get people on your side.

About time responsible organization like Kaiser and Harvard put their money where their mouth is. Perhaps, this kind of polling will shut the media talking heads up.

Too much spin on TV only makes an average voter confused. I am sick and tired of 21st century journalist spin something that is not true.

From this post: "it turns out that Obama's advantage is partly driven by the fact that he's better on an issue of importance to these voters: Health care. Seven in ten working class whites polled say government should focus on getting people like them health insurance they can afford, a key Obama position."

But from the blurb from poll on the front page: "Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over Republican Sen. John McCain among the nation's low-wage workers, [b]but many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system[/b], according to a new national poll."

I don't see how you can make this post claiming it's about health care without addressing that quote.

Ok - given his standing in the polls, can someone explain where the demographic problem is coming from? If he's ahead among all these voters, why's the race so tight?

If he's leading by ten among white working class voters, then he must be trailing significantly in some other demographic if polls are right suggesting that he's only got about 2 points on McCain.

with all due respect, a 10% lead in the constituency most devastated by Bush-McCain is not that great. It would help if Obama showed a little more fight and a little more resolve. just remind me again why Democrats are so unwilling to fight for their causes.

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"There is nothing to worry about, go to your homes, the Wizard has everything under control,"

A month old poll from the time when Obama led by nine.

Now it's even and Obama is a celebrity not a politician. The working class is exactly who the "celebrity" ad was targeted for...

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Led by 9 in what universe?

Go to the Gallup tracking history, and he never once lead by 9 during the time period that the poll was conducted, and, in fact, they were tied during a couple of the days.

Old poll not worth talking about.
Mccain is in the lead to stay now unless the Superdelagates dump Oilbama for Hillary.

Expect the mainstream media not make an issue for McCain. Can someone say, 'double standard.' The rules are different for McCain.

This poll is not surprising. Why wouldn't working class white folks support Obama, he has better platform to address their concerns not McPervert.

When are Latinos going to become an official Obama constituency? The media still pushes the theme that he only has blacks and young people on lock and Hispanics are up for grabs when every single general election poll thus far has shown otherwise.

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Well gee - let's see - there are two conflicting polls on this page.

That's why I love polls so much.

I'll take this one - since I don't trust any of them, I'll take the ones that say what I want since the others have numbers manipulated to show what someone else wants.

I'll go with the one I want - this one. This one says that people don't give one good goddamn about Obama being a celebrity or uppity - they want solutions.

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The working class whites are fast becoming the poor whites. The true unemployment according to shadowstats is a shocking 13.7%!

Obama needs to HAMMER the bread and butter issues home. This is where he should reprise Bill Clinton's "It's the Economy" win against the elder Bush.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/engdahl/engdahl080408.html


Please let it be true.

Before getting too excited about these results, it is useful to note that the vote question came after thirty-five other questions that essentially asked respondents to ponder how crappy things are in the country as a whole and in their own personal economic lives. In other words, you really have to consider that responses to the vote question were heavily influenced by the placement of the question in the middle of the survey, following dozens of questions about economic conditions. If the vote question had come after dozens of questions about terrorism and foreign policy, my guess is that McCain would lead significantly among this group.

I'm going with the one I like.

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You are posting a poll taken almost a month ago?

I'm highly confused. If Obama is leading with women, with white working classers, with blacks, with latinos - how are the polls so even? Add up all those people, its nearly the whole country. All that's not being counted is white elderly people, asians, and the rich. What is the major discrepancy which explains how this can be the situation?

this thread needs some troll-b-gone. if wapo can write about this poll as 'new', greg should be able to blog about it as new. the poll is 'new' today because the polling data was released today.

and since greg's point isn't about tracking, when the poll was taken is pretty much irrelevant.

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