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Poll: Obama Keeping It Close In North Carolina
Another poll confirms that North Carolina is looking like a close state for this November, despite the fact that the state hasn't voted Democratic since 1976.
The new numbers from SurveyUSA: McCain 49%, Obama 45%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. This is not significantly different last month's poll, which had McCain up 50%-45%. All the recent polls have shown McCain leading by a very narrow margin -- much closer than it was in 2004, when George W. Bush won by a margin of 56%-44%.
Barack Obama is aggressively targeting this state, and has placed it on his campaign's list of 18 states where his TV ads usually run. It's yet another suggestion that Obama is making good on his promise to broaden the map this year.
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This is good news. The one thing to keep in mind is that while Obama has been investing in NC, McCain has chosen to ignore it. This is a huge risk on McCain's part, and reflects what they no doubt feel to be a growing disparity in resources between the two campaigns, but so far Obama seems to have hit a bit of a ceiling. I think this is the same sort of ceiling that we've seen at the national level where voters are taking time to consider Obama as President, and we can very well see that break late in Obama's favor, but it's something to keep an eye on.
If McCain is forced to divert his attention away from his current targets and campaign in North Carolina, he's in real trouble.
August 13, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't help but wonder if McCain is going to (unwisely) just take states like Alaska, Montana and North Carolina for granted. He doesn't have the resources for any significant time/money to be spent there, so he'll just assume they're in the bag, while concentrating more on the likes of Michigan, Ohio.
August 13, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
No surprise there. Ignoring North Carolina is a trait McCain shares with the state's senior Senator, Elizabeth Dole.
August 13, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm...tough seeing Obama not over that 45% mark yet, but it's certainly close enough to be a battleground and force McCain to spend there.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 13, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I did look at the latest Florida poll, and there is something odd.
McBushSame gets 18% of the black vote, and 46% of the women votes versus 44% for Senator Obama.
So I don't think it is reliable.
For NC, nothing changes, but I still would like to see what kind of % Barr would get in NC.
It is good to see that Senator Obama is ahead in PA. It is a good sign based on the amount of advertisement McBushSame is spending...
August 13, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see Barr getting more than about two percent here at most. Of course, I'm someone who thinks his ability to influence the election is overrated.
August 13, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't McCain close the deal in NC or Alaska?
August 13, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
SUSA has the African-American vote as 19% of this poll. Which is just about exactly what the turnout was in the 2004 election.
If Obama is to win in NC, it's going to be all about a dramatic increase in AA turnout. A 25% increase is probably what he needs to win.
Registration rates for young voters is also astonishingly high this year - if they actually turnout for Obama then that perhaps a 15% increase in AA voters would combine for an Obama victory.
August 13, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
19%? What's your source? The exits put it at 26%.
August 13, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
26% is an exit poll. But you can get the actual number of AA voters who voted in an election right from the raw board of election data (rather than a poll).
Tom Jensen of PPP polling did this because people kept bring up the 26% number and found the truth:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/05/erroneous-exit-poll.html
26% also doesn't pass the smell test. AA's make up about 20% of the registration roll in NC and 20% of the population. I don't know of ANY state in the south where AA's make up a greater share of voter turnout than their population numbers.
I know kos has been throwing out the 26% exit poll but it's just wrong.
August 13, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a good feeling about North Carolina and Virignia. Florida too, the way this campaign is being run by the McCain folks makes me believe they will not put in the work that is needed to win. Bush used these tactics to divide the electorate but had an agressive ground game and barely won, McCain is using the same tactics but with no ground game and it will be a disastor.
People are taking a break from politics for now and are not paying attention, trust me. when the debates start we will see a break for Obama. I really do not think Americans are as dumb as Republicans or the MSM think. I think they have real issues and they are looking for substance, and it will show in the debates that McCain does not have a plan
August 13, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
North Carolina and Virginia won't be easy for Obama...he'll have to work very hard and Democratic turnout will have to be very high. But I hope at the very least he makes McCain work hard and spend money to cling to the two.
August 13, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, honestly I think NC is a hail-Mary sort of thing.
VA is another story. Close, but a very plausible pick-up.
August 13, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has no ground operation here, Obama has a large and growing one. I saw Obama's turnout operation in action in May, and that was just the warm up. if the final polls are close, Obama wins NC. The Republicans here are thoroughly demoralized and disorganized. At the state level, they're still putting themselves back together after a bitter civil war between the ideologically pure true believers and those deemed too willing to compromise with the evil Democrats to get things accomplished.
In my view, Virginia and North Carolina are linked. As goes one, so goes the other. Both are going to Obama unless some news event shakes up the math and whatever moves one to McCain will move the other.
August 13, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was Obama's ground operation that won the primary. They will bring all new voters to the polls. His campaign manager is a political science professor who understands the electoral map more than Mark Penn or Carl Rove. He may not win NC, but he will make it close. Thanks to Obama's 50 state strategy, there will be too many holes in the dam for McCain to plug. I am confident. Much more than I was with Kerry.
August 13, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
SurveyUSA's likely voter model says that 19% of likely voters in NC will be black.
According to the exit polling, African Americans comprised 26% of the electorate in NC in 2004.
2004 actual: 26%. SurveyUSA 2008: 19%.
Does anyone really think African American turnout in North Carolina--a state in which Obama has fifteen field offices open with half a dozen more that will be opened soon, and in which McFuddle still has exactly zero--will be lower in 2008 than it was in 2004? And not just a little--27% lower?
Hell, even if not one black person more votes this year than in '04 in NC this year, their percentage of the whole is practically guarenteed to go up just because enthusiasm for McCain is tepid, at best, and because he's still got no ground game here.
I'm not ripping on SurveyUSA. I am ripping on people who react to polls with a likely voter filter as if they were anything approaching predictive before October.
One more time. Likely voter models don't work in the summer. Not intended to. Pollsters use the same model because they think if they don't they can't get an apples to apples comparison. But really, I don't get the logic. Is a green apple any more comparable to a ripe one than the ripe apple is to an orange? At least the ripe apple and the orange can both be eaten without puckering you up and upsetting your innards.
August 13, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just watch out for those green oranges.
August 13, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oooooohhh, green citrus. I'll bet that's some serious bordering on toxic nastiness.
August 13, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. Betcha green oranges would really startle the sheep!
August 13, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
NC Steve,
The 26% exit poll is not accurate. The state BOE has the exact data on the turnout numbers.Tom Jensen of PPP polling looked into the 26% number and found the truth:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/05/erroneous-exit-poll.html
But I do believe that we could see a 20% increase of AA voters and a similar increase in young voters.
August 13, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are reports that the McCain campaign does not intend to open field offices in certain key states including Ohio, but instead will rely on ads and personal visits (that vaunted McCain charisma)? Maybe that is due to financial constraints. So without field offices, how will the campaign run its Get Out The Vote operations? I don't think that work is usually done by the state or national party offices. The GOTV can make a difference at the 1 or 2% level, at least. It could even be more if only one candidate is running a GOTV operation.
August 13, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
That can't be true.
No field offices in Ohio?
That's got to be a head fake.
August 13, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there a reason that SurveyUSA's polls tend to break towards the Republicant in the race the VAST majority of time?
August 13, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously, Rasmussen is fairer.
August 13, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink