WTF America. Outlier or not. I don't want to see this. Now with tensions of worry high as they are right now. BO and his team better wake the f up and counter this McCain sleaze.

Hate it or not, this celeb thing is working and building a perception of Obama. And perception is reality. And once someone gets a negative view of you, it's all downhill. See W, George Bush.

Convention next week. Fire up the troops people.

"Time to acknowledge"? I guess the progressives like to lose the elections progressively, one step at a time.

Greg, everyone knows that Zogby is a hack desperate for attention.

You don't need to use him as an excuse to admit McCain succeded in defining Obama.

Zogby polls are outliers. During the primary battle between Clinton and Obama, the day before super Tuesday, Zogby gave Obama a 14 pts lead. Clinton won the state by 12 pts.

C'mom...people. ignore the national polls. One polls comes out right after the other.

Zogby polls are outliers. During the primary battle between Clinton and Obama, the day before super Tuesday, Zogby gave Obama a 14 pts lead in California. Clinton won the state by 12 pts.

C'mom...people. ignore these national polls. One poll seems to come out right after the other. Zogby is seeking to make news.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_loopy_zogby_polls.php

The "Loopy" Zogby PollsBy David Moore

All pollsters, it seems, eventually find themselves with what Andy Kohut once referred to as "loopy" results. His comment was about the Gallup polls in the 2000 election, though in September 2004, Pew experienced such results itself, and of course several polls this campaign season have produced inexplicable or "wrong" numbers, as indicated by the subsequent primary election vote counts.

This time, it's Zogby's turn to confuse the masses. His latest Reuters/Zogby poll, based on a sample of 1,089 "likely voters" drawn from listed telephone numbers, conducted Aug. 14-16, 2008, shows McCain over Obama by 46% to 41%.

Two days earlier, Zogby reported substantially different results. His online poll (of self-selected people who want to be part of his Internet polling sample) of 3,339 "likely voters," conducted Aug. 12-14, showed Obama with a three-point lead, 43% to 40%.

By Zogby's own calculation of the margins of error of each poll, the difference between the two polls in McCain's support (46% in the later telephone poll vs. 40% in the earlier online poll) is statistically significant. The difference in Obama's support (41% vs. 43% respectively) would not be statistically significant. Still, the 8-point difference in the margin of McCain's lead would be significant - a McCain 5-point lead vs. an Obama 3-point lead in the earlier poll.

If we believe both polls, the period of Aug. 13-14 must have been a real bummer for Obama and an electoral high for McCain. Whatever it was that caused millions of voters to "change" their minds and gravitate toward the Republican candidate in the two-day period, however, escaped my notice. Perhaps others have been more observant.

Of course, there are reasons to discount both polls. Zogby has long been known for refusing to use sound methods in designing his samples. The use of only listed telephone numbers, and the self-selected samples of voters in his online surveys, are the two most salient problems. Still, his last pre-election polls often come close to the actual election results, and many news media outlets regularly publish his results.

Regardless of how loopy are Zogby's results, or his sampling methods, his polls contribute to what Kathy Frankovic, in her AAPOR presidential address in 1993,[i] referred to as the "noise and clamor" of the polls. Thus, they're worth noting, if only in disbelief.

Now that the 'celebrity' hook is in people's minds, it isn't coming out. There's plenty of psychology studies to support that. The McCain camp has defined him; falsely, but they've done it. And all with the passive help of the Obama campaign itself.

I hope they something amazing on deck, because I'm embarrassed by the way they sat back and took it in these early rounds.

--
tGhR

uhh..i think you said it right here.

"The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday, while Obama was on vacation"

I don't take any of this seriously in for the time being. But I am confident that he will get a bump from the convention and the announcement of this veep. And once he has his attack dog going to work, the polls will open up in Obama's favor.

Again, speaking as one who has defended the campaign
repeatedly in the past:

McCain's core message: McCain is a strong experienced leader; Obama is a lightweight.

Obama's core message: [crickets]

I buy that the Obama campaign's ground game is great, and we will surely need it in November. But their media / messaging operation? WHAT media / messaging operation?

Zogby has been unreliable. But Obama's numbers have not been getting better and it may not be an outlier. Post-1964 Presidentail history says it is likely on target for Nov. Let's repeat the refrain again. Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry, Obama. Can anyone name the only Dem nominee since LBJ to be elected twice? I'm willing to give you Gore once and you can't count Carter twice.

Is it too late not to lose?

What was that name again?

Methinks you need to look at polling aggregates with ALL candidates (BHO, McCain, Barr and Nader). Not great, but certainly not "chicken little" stuff.

Again, this poll is nonsense but it is time for team Obama to get hold of the narratives if they don't want to lose this election.

McCain has been wining the news cycle for the past three weeks; yet, Obama's media team is frankly ineffective. Most of the negative stories that came out in the last three weeks are about Obama. McCain is attacking effectively while his allies in the media grade him on a curve.

It is time for Obama to take the gloves off and go after this old man. McCain has, frankly, outspent Obama in the last month or so. Right now, i don't know what Obama's strategy is and his surrogates are not visible on TV let alone on print media. Where is the Op-ed, Where is the letter to the editors, where are the surrogates?

Obama needs to re-align his media team if he wants to win this election. He needs to hammer the media for defending McCain’s negative campaigning.

Are we going to have a mass freakout over this like the one last evening?

Let me know, please. If so, I'll go water my lawn or something. Thx.

Do not get a heart attack people. I was just watching the U.S. basketball team and the announcers sounded like you guys in the first quarter. They kept saying "its only a 3 point lead " and "austrailian team is really keeping this one close" and "the U.s. better watch out because the way the Austrailians are shooting, this could be a close one". The U.S went on to win by 30 points. The breathless analysis of the polls show me that Obama is winning. He may not be up 20 points like we all want, but he is winning. He is up 3 now, he was up 7 last friday, he may be up 5 on sunday, but he is up. Fear and panick have never solved anything, but hard work has. So volunteer, work the phones, canvass, and it will be fine.

Once again, the Democrats prove themselves incapable of definining their opponent. Stop sticking to the issues Obama! It does not work! More about McCain's 10 houses, $500 shoes, his millionaire friends calling us whiners, the Keating 5, cheating on his crippled wife, his no knowing as much as he should about the economy, $5 million being the rich threshhold.
Saying these things once is not enough. Beat us over the head with them. Then beat us some more! How many elections do we have to lose before we learn that stupid wins???

Please, With the Headlines. McCain has not opened a 5 point lead. Rather, in a poll of people who meet Zogby's definition of likely voters, McCain has 5% more than Obama in the polling results. Because any poll based only on listed landline numbers will not have an appropriate demographic sample, the pollster must reweight the results upon the basis of the subsamples, all of which have higher individual margins of error and Zogby appears to have gotten some unusual subsample results. Only 42% amongst women, for instance, as compared to LATimes/Bloomberg showing an 11 point Obama lead among women and Quinnipiac where Obama leads among women 53-39. When pollsters have a likely voter model, then their sample becomes not a sample of the true electorate but a sample of the people in the general population who meet the pollster's criteria for being a likely voter. And there is still a margin of error for that. If Zogby's subsample of women had shown 53% support for Obama like Quinnipiac's, then Obama would probably be the one leading the Zobgy poll 46-41. Now, really, which is more likely for Obama's support among women- 42% or 53%.

Before Obama went on vacation there was the poll that said people were tired of hearing about Obama... all the pundits said he needed to lower his profile because he was overexposed. Apparently none of these pundits thought about what that lowered profile would mean: McCain in the spotlight and a subsequent marginal rise in the polls. McCain took public financing which means he has to spend all of his money now before accepting his $84 million. That's why he's been spending and spending.

This is AUGUST people. If the race is going to get tight, now is the time for it. The convention is next week. The VP announcement is imminent. Post convention, you'll see more surrogates unleashed, Obama will not need to be worried about being overexposed. But more importantly, the Obama camp has been excellent at GOTV and registering new voters. They have the ground game.

In my town, I live two blocks from the Obama office. I get called by volunteers and staffers to volunteer at least 3 days a week.

I'd suggest we obsess less about the polls and more on registering DEMOCRATIC voters and organizing to get those voters to the polls in November.

What is the strategy right now? Is it voters registration?

I think the core issue may turn out to be that Obama will not delegate. While on vacation, he could have had a half-dozen delegates out there hammering McBush. He did not. Why not?

It appears to me that he simply will not relinquish the reins. He wants to control every aspect of the campaign from his corner office.

It probably will not work and the closing of the polling shows that McCain's use of surrogates is working, while the "one size fits all" technique of Obama is not. It may not be a matter of the "Obama campaign" waking up -- it may come down to the question of whether the candidate actually has enough trust in his own team to let them onto the field to play.

Thanks.

mp

Granted that Obama's numbers haven't looked good lately, but why is this poll supposed to be any better than the Quinnipiac poll that was released yesterday (also likely voters) that showed Obama ahead? [Zogby is considered a far less reputable pollster than Quinnipiac.]

Nevertheless, the braces holding up the sky seem to be wobbling. But they sky isn't falling... yet.

The VP choice/roll-out and strong convention could help get things back on course for Obama.

[On a side note, many of these state and national polls were taken while Obama was on vacation. So, it's possible that these numbers may be due, in part, to Obama being off the trail for a while. That's not to say that the ads, etc. aren't working. Maybe they are. I think we'll know for sure after the convention. If they're working, they may neutralize/minimize the anticipated bump.]

Well, maybe Mencken was right: Maye you never CAN go broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. Rove sure hasn't.

HILLARY COME SAVE US!! JOHN EDWARDS WHERE ARE YOU??

Edwards would have already lost because of the scandal and Hillary would be behind by double digits. Her mere presence would have rallied the GOP base, allowing McCain to reach for the middle, and given Hillary's polarizing stature and how she ran her primary campaign McCain would make serious inroads there. Then you could have the Obama dead-enders holding out, maybe instead of Carly Fiorina reaching out, McCain would have an African American surrogate reaching out to Obama supporters.

The only reason I worry about these polls is because the Rev Wright issue hasn't played out in front of the GE audience. He needs a 3-4% buffer zone for when that story is played by the McCain camp in late October.

On August 20, 2004, John Kerry was leading in states worth 301 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com (including FL, OH, and WV), though he ended up losing those states and the election in November.

On August 20, 2008, Obama is leading in states worth 264 electoral votes on elevtoral-vote.com and he is losing FL, OH, and WV -- as well as CO, NV, MO, and IN.

Why the "Celebrity" tag is working - Nobody is listening to Obama anymore. It seems people tune out to what he says because well "he's an empty suit celebrity". He gave a very good speech to the VFW yesterday, but it doesn't register. His answers at the Saddleback Forum were more detailed and real and yet "McCain won the night" with his stump speeches and storytime.

Now voters are looking at McCain, looking for something they can like so they don't have to be one of the suckers voting for the celebrity.

1. This was a regular Zogby poll, not his totally worthless interactive online poll. I am skeptical about Zogby polls but only because he is biased in favor of Democrats.

2. John Zogby is pro-Obama and his brother James is a big Obama supporter and heads an Arab-American group. So don't go painting Zogby as a rightwinger.

It is mid-August people.

Oh yeah, the folks at Five Thirty Eight have him plummeting (my words, not theirs) as well.

Actually, McCain has been the worst at viewing the 'facts on the ground'. He advocated invading Iraq before even Cheney did, when we hadn't even invaded Afghanistan, let alone secured it (something we STILL haven't done). He said (his words) we should "muddle through" in Afghanistan with our existing troops. Now that our allies in the Iraqi government (the people who are actually on the ground that your 'facts' are coming from) are asking for a 16 month timetable, he ignores them. He ignored the fact that Al Qaeda is actually in Pakistan, throwing in his lot with Musharraf long after anybody who speaks a word of Urdu (including the Army) knew that he was finished.

When Obama proposed taking two of the steps that EVERY person who actually knows the region have advocated--seeking a constructive dialog with Iran about Iraqi security (that was recommended by Bush's panel!) and taking measures to contain the pro-Al-Qaeda actions by the ISI and others--McCain demagogued and attacked Obama repeatedly for not repeating McCain's documented failures like a good little man.

8 years of rule by the 'pro-business' party has completely ruined business in the US. 8 years of rule by the 'pro-security' party has rendered the US laughably ineffective even when a G-8 country invades one of their neighbors. 8 years of rule by the 'education president' have driven us further to the bottom of international rankings in education. And 8 years of rule by the pro-life party have brought us 8 consecutive increases in the abortion rate. Enough already! Just because a network or two reliably repeats McCain's truisms doesn't make them true.

This poll is pure BS, no need to waste time on this. I read a few polls yesterday. MCBushSame getting 20% of the black votes in Indiana, Florida....Not a chance..

This is just a way from the medai ti bash Obama and to say he needs to hire Clinton for VP...

This will not happen, nor will it be Biden...

People want change, not the same old politics....

Zogby's real poll may not be the most accurate but according to Nate Silver it has been MORE accurate than ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, LAT among others

Go negative:

Be outrageous and over the top!

"John McCain's America" --- grainy footage of Thirties breadlines, interposed with footage of tanks on the move through WWII European rubble.

"John McCain's America" --- Still shots of McCain's eight or ten homes, captioned, "McCain Home #1", "McCain Home #2" and so on with V/O talking about home foreclosures, closing shot of crowds in shelters.

"John McCain's Vision" --- B/W still shots of McCain in the most unflattering shots we can find. McCain's voice saying every outrageous clip we can find.

C'mon folks! You can come up with hundreds of ads similar to these. Let's get creative and hope the slumbering Obama campaign sees them and copies them.

I agree with everyone here. I remember when the celeb ads hit I was furious at camp O for NOT doing a thing about them. I think they were still high on the European tour... even the fact that McCain could claim that he refused to see the troops b/c he couldn't take cameras. They just kept trying to explain. Now the Paris/Britney ads as much as Obama would like to believe he's above it all, are working. Again, when are we seeing the jugular ads from Obama coming? He's looking chicken with his lame ads... like he has such high morals and wouldn't dare tear down anyone.
Yes, and Obama Fuck starting everything with McCain is a genuine war hero.... We don't give a crap! Tear the man to size.. and fast!

As the Obamessiah gets smacked in the face repeatedly he "turns the other cheek" so he can be hit some more. He needs to get more Old Testament -- you know, "an eye for an eye."

PPP(D) says today that Obama lost 7 points in MO since July so now he's behind there by 10 points. Missouri has gone with the winner in every election since 1960.

If this poll is accurate it is proof positive that Americans are just plain dumb. After eight years of taking it in the ass from Bush I can only assume that all the dumb bastards that chose McCain liked what Bush has done to them. I'd have never thought I'd be stuck living in a country run by and for dumb asses. Pathetic.

From the beginning this campaign has been Obama's to lose.

It appears that he's fulfilling the promise.

There is absolutely no way that this race should have been close, yet, Obama and the Democrats have allowed John McCain to control the message the entire way.

They still have time to pull this out, and perhaps this might be the wake up call, no telling.

I know for me, I still support him, but FISA was certainly a turning point into his stand on issues.

My letter to Obama campaign, fyi:

We need to take control of the dialog in this race. ASAP. It's so easy. Challenge McCain. Pick a handful of points and CHALLENGE McCain directly on those points. Such as: "I challenge John McCain to support my tax cut for the Middle Class." "I challenge John McCain to support investment in Renewable Energy and Conservation."

"I challenge John McCain to tell us how he would fix the housing market."

"I challenge John McCain to support the Iraqi government's request for a timeline to get us out of Iraq."

Then HAMMER IT HOME.

Change the dialog.

Make HIM respond.

Otherwise, we are letting Karl Rove dictate Barack Obama's campaign.

Dictate the dialog. Rule it. Own it.

Do it NOW or they will STEAL IT AGAIN.

Zogby? Who's that?

Oh yeah, that guy who got every single poll wrong throughout the entirety of the primary season.

Yet again, the chicken littles in the party are out in full force with their "oh noes!" now that JOHN ZOGBY has taken a poll of 1,000 LIKELY VOTERS (whatever the hell that means in August) and come up with a 5% lead for the old man. You don't even bother to go into the crosstabs to see the demographic percentages interviewed.

For anyone interested, about 50 more people chose McCain than Obama in this poll from one of the shittiest pollsters out there. Those 50 people are who have your panties all in a bunch...

McCain floods the airwaves with attack ads on Obama, claiming he is only a celebrity that is not ready and a tax raiser. Obama pleads for John McCain to play nice.

McCain attacks Obama, almost saying Obama is guilty of treason, and Obama asks John McCain to do nicer. Obama gives a speech before the VFW, devoid of passion.

Is there a more stupid strategy by Obama? And what about the DNC? Where are they, or are they only concerned about getting money from corporate lobbyists and doing their bidding anyway, showing here is no difference between R and D?

McCain comes across as forceful. Obama comes across as an out of touch wimp, giving long winded nuance filled comments.

Have the Democrats learned anything this past 8 years? Why is the only Democrat fighting back being John Kerry?

You really need to relax dude. I dont know how many of you have been doing this long, but this is not the attitude to have in politics. Polls are a snap shot in time, they reflect the mood at the time. One week of polling does not make an election. Ask veteran politicians like Rendell who know what large leads do. They breed laziness. This is the presidency and no body will give it to you, we have to fight. You dont win fights by whinning, and you guys are whinning. They will be dips in the polls and they will be bounces, the poll that counts is election day. I remeber in 1994, Mario Cuomo was up by 20 points on the day before the election against Pataki, Howard stern went on his radio show and pleaded for guys to change things. Pataki won the next day. I think most of Coumo's supporters took it for granted and did not work as hard to get their people to the polls, while Pataki was desperate chasing down his voters and making sure they voted, and that Stern pleas was the difference. In 2004 I remeber Delay laughing after the election and saying, "I dont care what the democrats say or what they plan, the fact is they are lazy and they can not out work us..." that all changed in 2006. The thing is in 2006, a lot of people did not think we would pull it off untill the results where in and Delay was stunned. We have learned how to fight, and I see the swagger in the McCain team now, but that is good because we need to work hard for the presidency.

It's time to acknowledge the possibility that the "celeb" hook may be in deep.

It's time to acknowledge the possibility that Zogby polls are worthless. Zogby has an awful track record, so why is anybody believing this poll when it disagrees with several other national polls which have come out in the last two days?

I hate to say this again; but Obama made a big mistake when he pissed off his progressive base by caving in on the FISA bill and bad-mouthing MoveOn.org for the General 'Betray Us' add they ran 10 months ago - just to show he can 'moderate' or 'triangulate'.

Surveys showed that he lost 17% of the support of Independents and Libertarians after that cave, and I know he lowered the motivation of the progressive foot soldiers that supported him in the primaries. Ever since those bone-headed moves the trend has been down for Obama.

I also think the acceptance speech in the stadium in Denver is going to be nullified and probably sullied by the 'celebrity' angle so brilliantly utilized by the GOP (they do know how to run negative ads that unfortunately work with the same people that still think Saddam was responsible for 9/11).

If Obama doesn't nullify the celebrity angle by slamming McCain for being a bigger, richer, and more out of touch celebrity that himself the speech is already a disaster regardless of how good it is.

Obama is beginning to look like Obambi - he better turn this around soon!

Besides the celeb ads, a lot of what has given McCain traction is offshore drilling. A majority of voters favor it, at least in the last polls I saw. It may not be a policy you like, but it is a policy and voters agree with McCain. Dismissing his supporters as sheep purely driven by emotion is simply stupid. There's no question that McCain's playing rough, but there are policy issues involved, as well.

It may have served Obama well during the primaries to keep crowing about his "judgement" in 2002, but that's only going to get him so far. Did you really think voters would go for him because he made a speech in a park six years ago? I think people are a lot less concerned with how it started than with how it's going to end. And a majority of the voters supported the invasion at the time. I'm not sure how much mileage Obama's going to get out of reminding them that he was right and they were wrong.

I know it comforts all of you to dismiss the voters as so much less informed as you, but it's a fool's game.

You know what's worse? I don't even think McCain has unleashed his most effective attack ads yet.... Hillary threw out much more shit but unfortunately for her, they don't work with the Dem base. Wait till McCain go full throttle with the napalm he so relished dropping on his victims.

I have been saying this for 3 weeks and I only get called a "concern" troll...

Obama's campaign staff is not as brilliant as anyone is claiming.

For those of you that think McCain's radio ad misses, I would like to provide some valuable counterpoint, which also dovetails with my main criticism of Obama's economic plan...

It does nothing to reduce the deficit.

If you ask peope, and I am talking independents, whether they would like to see more government programs or a smaller deficit, 80% will say a smaller deficit.

As angry as voters are at Bush and Congress, it underscores a SKEPTICISM of government. I personally believe that more government can work, but the average American is far from that view.

...and here is the risk. If Obama does not seriously define his Change message, he will allow McCain to define it for him. That radio ad is exactly how he will define it...HUGE GOVERNMENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FAIL YOU.

That will not be a winning proposition. Obama needs to start talking about balancing the budget, cutting some programs and replacing bad ones with the ones that he prefers.

If it comes down to voting for a trillion dollar deficit, which is how McCain will paint Obama's plan, nobody will ever vote for it.

If Obama does not define his plan in different terms, and fast, this slide will continue.

Americans are predisposed to believe that Liberals want huge, wasteful government. It is an easy lever for McCain to pull. He will do it, and he is just starting.

My fear is that this is the beginning. Those of you that thought the celeb ads were weak because they lacked substance are correct.

What happens when they start with the tried and true tactics that seem to kill us.

Clinton won because he talked about balancing the budget and actually went out and did it. Right now Obama is positioned as the anti-Clinton Democrat. That is not a safe place to be with a $500B deficit.

I hoped the economy would work in our favor, this poll shows that is a mirage unless something changes and fast....

Anyone who freaks out about polls at this stage in the race should really seek out counseling. Until the two candidates start appearing side by side polls don't mean jack.

I was hoping that after the countless freakouts in the primary Obama's supporters would start to develop a little perspective. Sadly that was wishful thinking. Relax, people, relax.

This is really depressing!

Anyone who is not concerned about the direction of the Obama campaign is not paying attention. All the comments about O needing to take charge of the conversation and quick, are spot on. I hope his people are reading this (and other) blogs and taking stock. They need help!

Food for thought; here is my contribution (not particularly politically savvy but a really concerned American)

John McCain at the CNN republican primary debate said "... I think we are better off overall if you look at the entire 8 year period (of the Bush administration)."

Eight years of republican rule brought us a

FEMA that is a disaster at disaster relief,
contributing to the deaths of hundreds of US citizens in New Orleans, an
FDA that cannot stop salmonella poisoning of our food, or
lead poisoning of our children, an
FAA that puts airline company profits ahead of airline safety, an
FBI that cannot adequately solve a 6 year old terrorist attack from within our own boarders even after illegally abusing revised surveillance laws that are themselves unconstitutional abridgements of our civil rights, a
NASA that fosters oil company profits by doctoring its own research reports on climate change, an
SEC that facilitates market manipulation rather than polices it, a
DOJ that values politics over justice,
and on and on and on ...

To most Americans, 8 years of republican rule has destroyed nearly all regulatory and oversight functions of the Federal government.

But ...

John McCain is proud of the Bush record and will make sure that the same people and practices running all theses failed agencies and departments that you depend upon,
sometimes even for your life,
continue the record he so much admires.

Can you and your family afford four more years of republican government under John McCain?

On the other hand

McCain and Obama have been nearly tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for a full week. This sets the stage for a potential shift in the structure of the race resulting from next week's Democratic National Convention. Even an average "convention bounce" for Obama (a 5-point increase in his support) would give him a significant lead over McCain.

All of you whining about Zogby polls have your head in the sand...

His polls have not been accurate, but they reflect the trend.

Obama was not up by 7 points when Zogby said he was, either, but you were happy to believe him.

McCain is not ahead by five points either, but a 12 point swing is real.

Every other poll shows a drift, LA TIMES had Obama by 15 points! It is 2 points! If he was not really up by 15 then, what is he up by now!

Best case scenario, this thing is tied. Once Gallup switches to the LV screen, McCain will be ahead there too. The RV screen in Gallup always favors the left.

It is time you fanboys stop your robotic cheerleading and face up to reality, this thing is gonna be close IF Obama's team gets their act together.

If they don't 2 weeks from now we will see Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan start to slide.

2 weeks after that it will be Iowa, Pennslyvania. Virginia will be out of reach...

They need to start defining Obama more specifically.

Axelrod's SuperStar Strategy has officially backfired. Can we all admit that?

McCain will keep using the "celeb" angle as long as Obama keeps presenting himself that way, and there is no sign of letting up.

Obama's dramatic speech will now just look like a Rock Concert and reinforce McCain's celeb message.

...and I am mad about it.

Chicken Little would be flattered by all of these imitations. If all of these armchair quarterbacks were so good at this political stuff, they would be making seven figures as political consultants. Any PAID political consultants here? Speak now or forever hold your piece...(cricket, cricket).

Concern is justified. "The Sky is Falling, the Sky is Falling" is not. One poll (Zogby of all poles especially) does not justify panic. It just means to get your butts out from in front of the computer and start knocking on doors for the campaign. There's gotta be a direct correlation between number of posts made here and low level of involvement in the campaign (whining doesn't count as involvement because it doesn't register voters). Step away from the keyboard...NOW! Get to work folks.

my god.

what a bunch of pessimism and navel gazing.

look. i am confident that obama has been laying low for a reason. he needs to peak at the right time. by taking the high road now, it gives him credibility to run the attacks everyone here has been suggesting ad nauseum.

the obama playbook has been to, yes, drift as long as possible right up to the convention than take that bounce and start hammering mccain with ads, winning debates and to the press.

had he already done so, throughout the summer, he would have peaked too soon. people would start to feeling sorry for ol' mcnasty and obama's supporters would think they were going to win in a walk.

obama needs turnout and he needs his campaign attacks and his own appeal to the voters to peak in November, not August.

obama is not kerry. he's not dukkakis. and he is not run by the DNC.

he is ABSOLUTELY CORRECT

get a grip people.

my god.

what a bunch of pessimism and navel gazing.

look. i am confident that obama has been laying low for a reason. he needs to peak at the right time. by taking the high road now, it gives him credibility to run the attacks everyone here has been suggesting ad nauseum.

the obama playbook has been to, yes, drift as long as possible right up to the convention than take that bounce and start hammering mccain with ads, winning debates and to the press.

had he already done so, throughout the summer, he would have peaked too soon. people would start to feeling sorry for ol' mcnasty and obama's supporters would think they were going to win in a walk.

obama needs turnout and he needs his campaign attacks and his own appeal to the voters to peak in November, not August.

obama is not kerry. he's not dukkakis. and he is not run by the DNC.

he is ABSOLUTELY CORRECT to be focusing on his ground game in anticipation of massive turnout come election day. massive turnout that will be guaranteed by timing his push to the actual voting date and not because some of his supporters want him to draw blood NOW.

get a grip people.

sorry for the double post.

I'm not here to whine or complain.

Better take a look at this:

http://www.nmfbihop.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1558

Enough said. I'm out of here.

Comment on McCain:"We make money the Republican way: we marry it!"

Last cycle, every Dem finally could quote Will Rogers:"I belong to no organized political party. I'm a Democrat."

Come November 5th, I'd like to NOT be quoting Abba Eban:
"They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."

I like the Electoral College better.
Obama 280 vs. McCain 258
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/electoral-college-results.html

DEM 264 REP 191

I thought that was what really counted. Can someone explain to me what the big difference is? And can or do you think Obama is using this as well?