Even in 1996 Clinton did not win Florida outright. He took 48% of the vote to Dole's 43%, with Perot siphoning off the other 9% (and exit polls showed that 27% of Perot's voters in Florida identified themselves as "conservative" vs 17% identifying themselves as "liberal," suggesting that Perot siphoned more votes out of Dole's reservoir than out of Clinton's). In other words, while Florida is narrowly republican, it is still reliably republican. Anyone who was counting on winning there was setting himself up for disappointment right from the start.

Florida isn't even a state that people should expect democrats to win.

Delaware GOP, Ting, Booted 4 Secretly Supporting Obama

It's always close. We never win it. Clinton only "won" it by a plurality in '96 because Perot sucked the life out of the campaign juggernaut that was Bob Dole.

We are never going to win there if its close enough to steal. Its the one state where the Republicans have both the means, the will, the tools and the historical willingness to do it.

If we have to win Florida to win, we're already hosed. That's the real lesson of 2000 and 2004.

But all that said, its a great place to bleed McCain and, for that reason alone, is worth putting a lot of money into after the conventions. McCain has to hang on to it and he knows it will be close. He cannot afford to be blase there and take the breezy "oh well, if we lose there we're hosed anyway" attitude he's shown in some of the other Bush II states where Obama's building a ground game.

He knows he has to keep it. That's why his SE regional HQ there.

And that, by the way, is a potentially catastrophic blunder. His whole "regional HQ" strategy is flawed because it basically ignores the GOP's biggest strength in '00 and 04, which was its ground game. He's running "must win" states out of these regional HQ's rather than putting Guccis onto the ground in those states. By putting his regional HQ's in a few "must win" competitive states (his Atlantic Coast HQ is in Virginia), he's basically ensuring that his "regional" HQ's will turn into missnamed state HQ's.

McCain is still running North Carolina from Florida. NC is as must win as Florida, it is as much in play as Florida and he has no ground game here. None. No field offices, no state HQ, nothing. He's not even running it out of the regional HQ in Virginia, which is next door.

On the other hand, I did actually see my McCain bumper sticker ever today, and the car was being driven by an angry looking older white woman, so I guess I should be having a panic attack.

That's disgusting. Just give up on Florida? Barack Obama can't afford to give up on ANYTHING, that's why he implemented the 50 State Strategy in the first place. He has to get any state he has a chance of winning and these margins are far too close to just give up.

I tell you what would really help him cover all 50 states, Hillary and her husband campaigning all over the nation and spreading the word that the economy of the 90's is on it's way back.

So that means Obama is actually up by 6 in the Republican Rasmussen tracking poll, right?

for gymrat23 up there.

The bottom line is simple; he who has the best get out to vote wins the election. Florida is going to be a swing state but Obama shouldn't rely too much on it.

In fact, i'll argue, Obama should focus more on these states like VA, OH, CO, IN, MT and NM. He has a great records with the farmers and that is a winning issue in these states mentioned above

If the poll is accurate as to age, they may be "pro life" because they are beyond the age where it's an issue for women.

Obama wins in state's where he or Democrats have an organizational advantage. Obama will be able to "borrow" the Democratic machines Clinton relied on to carry PA and OH.

Florida has a REPUBLICAN machine. They'll lend it to McCain.