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Obama's Convention Bounce Grows
Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Barack Obama continuing to enjoy a convention bounce, and it may still be growing.
The numbers: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, well outside the ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up by a 48%-42% margin, after having fallen behind McCain by two points in Gallup just as the convention was beginning. This morning's Rasmussen poll had Obama moving into a 49%-45% lead.
Note that this is a three-day sample that is just starting to take into account the impact from Bill Clinton's full-hearted endorsement of Obama, and we have yet to see any polling from after Obama's big speech last night.
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Lovely! I'd like to see another couple of points here between now and Tuesday.
August 29, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thought youz guyz were into full-throated. Gettin' yer chakras mixed up?
August 29, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
That wood pertain to Ms. Lewinsky's endorsement.
(sorry)
August 29, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would be great if the Palin pick doesn't fundamentally change this bounce. The way the media is slobbering on it, I think we'll see that come down a couple points.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 29, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yet another lingering effect of Team Hillary (and the stoking by Team McCain): the MSM is going to bend over backward to avoid ANY criticism of Palin, now matter how legitimate, to avoid the appearance of sexism.
Hell, even that horrible human being Ferraro is already at it again: "This Might Do It For McCain"
August 29, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you are going to blame Hillary's run for office for the Corporate Media's inability to impartially report on another female candidate? Do you really hate women so much that those who have a chance shouldn't run because those that don't deserve a chance won't be held to account? Exactly how STOOPID are you?
August 29, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still find these daily trackers silly and meaningless. But after McCain, Faux, and the MSM were trumpeting the brief dip a few days ago, it's nice to see the upswing!
August 29, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but just wait until McCain/Palin gets the snowmobile-racer bounce!
August 29, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's never forget the trooper-hating bounce!
August 29, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama's biggest lead was in late July, 49-40. It would make big news for him to crack 50.
August 29, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Conservatives are stunned. Pat Buchanan said this morning on morning Joe that if McCain would chose her it would be a huge risk for the Republican party.
Mondale/Ferraro 2 produced by Karl Rove.
August 29, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not according to Faux:
"The Base Hearts Palin"
"A Republican Slam Dunk"
"A Daring Choice"
"Brilliant"
"Maverick"
For what it's worth, of course.
August 29, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Faux will do what's told to do.
August 29, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
McBush could drop trou and take a big dump on JFK's grave, and the weenies at Fox would call it "brilliant" and "daring". Too bad there are so many people who still take Fox seriously.
August 29, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
**The poor republicans hate McCain so much that this is wildly popular to them. Someone who actually may LIVE for four more years. They could care less if it puts the country at risk. They have always been Party First, and it will finally be the death of them.
August 30, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, my wife says the Palin pick is smart, mainly because of her beehive. I think she came out of the same mold as our beloved Monica Goodling. The too-ambitious-for-her-intellect conservative woman.
August 29, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great. And now we get a week of split screen shots of a Hurricane disaster and a GOP convention train wreck. There's no guarantee McCain will see a bounce out of his convention.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
August 29, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you get real lucky, Danny, maybe a lot of people on the Gulf Coast will get killed. Snap out of it, man.
August 29, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I gotta agree here.
But I am starting to think that God is trying to tell us something.
August 29, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Do something to make hurricanes barreling towards New Orleans less common, or at least less deadly", perhaps. If the Dutch have this flood-prevention/containment deal all figured out, we can do it too.
August 29, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see no evidence that this is how God works.
Short-term party politics doesn't really seem to be his domain, does it?
August 29, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see it so much as short-term politics as a, "Repent and turn away from your transgressions" type of message.
But you're right. It's probably just global warming.
August 29, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't it Ram Dass who said "there are no coincidences?" Surely everyone who reads THIS blog and is over the age of 40 knows the culture-bending book "Be Here Now." Chock full of mystical truthiness.
While it may not be punishment for the wingnut Rpublicans' terminal hypocrisy, this hurricane may be the rain "they" prayed for during the Obama speech at Invesco.
I was there, in the top row, and it was blessed with par-excellent, unseasonably mild weather.
Absolutely gorgeous, Denver is a once and future city, don't go there if you don't want to get hooked.
Anyway, just wanted to add my 3 cents worth.
If you pray for rain, you may get it, but not in the time and place and version you thought you deserved.
August 31, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course it is. God's domain is whatever the reich-wing wants it to be. That's the beauty of fantasy, you can make it be whatever you want it to be.
August 29, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even Evangelicals have no control over "acts of god". Do not fool with Mother Nature.
August 31, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever the long-term implications of the Sarah Palin pick, that decision has allowed McCain to stomp all over the glowing coverage of Obama's acceptance speech that would otherwise be dominating the news cycle.
But I think we all obsess way too much over the daily tracking polls and the 24-hour news cycle. They mean less than the fundamentals, which remain fundamentally favorable for Democrats. I'm not sure Palin will turn out to be the game changer Republicans had been hoping for.
August 29, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree. McCain stopped the endless second-guessing that would have commenced today. By announcing his veep pick, the narrative about Obamam's speech has been frozen into place: it was tough, strong, and left the Republicans grasping for words.
August 29, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. He stomped on it, but in doing so appeared to make a completely reactionary VP pick in an effort to "go long".
McCain has just completley given up his own campaign narrative, and put it in the hands of the media from here on out. Obama on the other hand has never been in more control of his own campaign narrative. This is a huge win for us.
The only problem is, I don't trust our media to not try to pull McCain all the way to the White House, just to see if they can.
August 29, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is a good point. Froze it in place.
And don't forget, whoever he picked, setting the announcement for today was only ever going to switch the discussion.
August 29, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought you guys were using full-throated nowadays, Eric.
August 29, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I thought they were using deep-throated. Go figure.
August 29, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin has a big plus--she's shorter than McCain! Can you imagine McCain standing next to Michelle Obama? He would look like the small man that he is.
August 29, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
ringrid said;
I mentioned the size difference in regard to the debates. Will McCain stand on a milk crate or will they both be sitting.
August 29, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
They'll be behind podiums in at least one debate, so only the hand-shakes before and after will the height difference be noticeable, and therefore NOT covered by television.
August 29, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if Cindy is worried....
August 29, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's got nothing to worry about unless Palin has millions hidden somewhere.
August 29, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will be up by over 10% tomorow in gallups poll.
but i think mccain picking Palin will take a lot of the attention away and the bounce will fade. the only question is HOW MUCH will it fade.. maybe it fades 5% or maybe it fades 8%. who knows.
we will know not this weekend, but the weekend after what kind of effect the GOP convention has.
August 29, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to be over 10% at his peak to have any comfort level now that the GOP gets its turn at bat and Palin is a wild card that could go either way. I think it hurts McCain because it takes away the experience argument.
Remember that Dukakis was ahead by 17 points after his convention and ended up losing by 8 points -- a 25 point swing.
August 29, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
When will you finally get it that Obama is not Mondale, or Dukakis, or even John Kerry. And McCain sure as hell isn't Reagan.
This is a new year, and we've got a whole host of new issues.
August 29, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
If one more person raises the inane 'Dukakis slip' argument, I am going to track them down and remove their pancreas with a shrimp fork!!!!!
August 29, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that what those little forks are for? Learn something new every day.
Seriously though, I agree that the fundamentals have never been stronger for Obama. Though it is nice to see upward movement in the Gallup daily, despite the irrelevance of: A) the poll (national) in general and B) One day out of three (they have to be averaged right?)
On the Palin pick, total wildcard. Perhaps a 5 - 15% chance of having it's intended outcome. One of my pet theories is that it was a Rovian decree in order to placate a disgruntled CC base. McCain may be dead in the water as far as Rove is concerned, but at least a base-appealing veep will draw more voters to the polls for other races.
I just hope Obama has a good closer. I have little faith the Rove won't ratchet up the BS assault in the final week. And we know how the MSM will amplify just about any unfounded story that floats their way. Be prepared.
August 29, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that what those little forks are for? Learn something new every day.
Seriously though, I agree that the fundamentals have never been stronger for Obama. Though it is nice to see upward movement in the Gallup daily, despite the irrelevance of: A) the poll (national) in general and B) One day out of three (they have to be averaged right?)
On the Palin pick, total wildcard. Perhaps a 5 - 15% chance of having it's intended outcome. One of my pet theories is that it was a Rovian decree in order to placate a disgruntled CC base. McCain may be dead in the water as far as Rove is concerned, but at least a base-appealing veep will draw more voters to the polls for other races.
I just hope Obama has a good closer. I have little faith the Rove won't ratchet up the BS assault in the final week. And we know how the MSM will amplify just about any unfounded story that floats their way. Be prepared.
August 29, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't expect Obama's tracking poll result to improve tomorrow. It will probably be going down on Sunday. The three-day average is giving deceptive results right now in the face of very volatile numbers.
Note that four days ago McCain took the lead in the tracking poll. This means that four days ago, the daily sample must've shown McCain ahead. Yesterday's tracking poll release included that sample, but today's doesn't. The fact that Obama's lead went up in today's tracking poll release just reflects that yesterday's sample was better than the one that fell off. Since his lead only went up by 1 point, it wasn't very much better -- it was probably a tie.
August 29, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is a bad pick . . . unqualified and the scandal was the first thing I heard the CNN guys come up with about her minutes after the announcement. And, way too much make-up, like a happy-hour bimbo. I think this will backfire with a lot of women. Palin is a caricature. Is she is really the BEST gop female available? I think it's an insulting selection actually. For the record; I voted for HRC, am a male homo and do not consider myself sexist.
August 29, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this pick sinks the McCain campaign definitively.
August 29, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? Not likely. She is more liked by the conservatives than McCain, so it solidifies his support base. She will take some Hillary voters away from Obama for sure, and the attacks on her lack of experience to be No. 2 will boomerang on Obama, who has little more experience and no executive experience at all. Obama's 15 minutes are running out fast, an empty suit pushed by a fawning media and backed by Soros's money, people are catching on that he is a joke.
August 29, 2008 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're spinning again Bulldog.
Palin is a gun-totin' anti-abortion Conservative. Just when was it that Hillary was embraced by the either NRA or the Right-to-Life movement? Any Hillary supporter who leans toward Obama is not going to swayed by adding Palin to the ticket. And the Hillary supporters who leaned toward McCain are already lost.
The real effect of this that McCain neutralized his own anti-Obama "experience" argument. He can't use it anymore because when he points that finger at Oama, three fingers are pointing at his pick for VP.
On the other hand Obama can say that more people voted for him in the primary than all of the Republicans put together. Who voted for Palin? McCain and what, a hundred thousand or so Alaskans?
I do agree that McCain "solidified his support base" and this highlights the fact that his support was weak to begin with. Solidifying your base is what primaries are for. In a general election a strong candidate doesn't run to the base, they run to the center. If you need to "solidify your base" in a general election, you're in deep doo-doo.
Nope. This is destined to become one of those decisions that look good on paper and turn out to be completely dumb.
August 30, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see there's a quote from David Frum!!!! on TPM, dissing this choice by McCain. There are snowmen in Hell tonight.
August 29, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm.... I wonder how the Gustav Convention will play for the Republicans.
August 31, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink