Good points.

Timing is everything. Last fall, Obama was down 15-20 points to HRC. He knew when to bring it on.

Along the tempests right now are occurring in the teapot of August. The switch will be flipped soon, probably starting with the convention.

At the risk of self-promotion, I predicted this timing issue back in February.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/the-cadence-of-hope.php

To Frog Leg's point, I think that Obama is just more patient than we are. McCain is busy shooting his load early, going after the jugular way in advance of the GE. If he's shot everything and is still close/slightly behind, McCain is left with nothing but rehashing old points that he trotted out previously.

I think that Obama may even want the polls to be close now, as that keeps the fundraising incentive going. Furthermore, he can surge after the convention. We've had Dems in the past who have had huge leads and have played to survive, than to win.

Furthermore, I think that after the first debate, Obama will start to pull ahead cleanly.

This is a good analysis that makes sense. People tend to have short memories. I am glad Obama is ignoring all those talking heads in DC. The people in DC are usually wrong 98% of the time - especially the so called strategists that talked in the background. If they are that good strategists, why are they unemployed? In fact, they are losers.

Could be that he is just waiting to give McSame a little birthday present...

Ok, I agree he shouldn't get down to McCain's level yet. It damages his brand, lowers the level of discourse. We do like to look back with pride that he won "his way" against the Clinton machine.

But we also often forget this: when Hillary got REALLY negative -- signing up former enemies, 3 AM ads, "going there" on the Wright thing -- he kind of already had the nomination won. Or at least had an almost insurmountable head start.

There will be no such electoral head start this time. Everything comes down to one day in November.

It will be the real test of his new political strategy, and I'm optimistic that it will be the final vindication of it.

For hope, I look back to Indiana and North Carolina, where he finally locked this thing up against Hillary's worst onslaught yet, even refusing to take the gas tax holiday bait.

LOL Greg, I was one of the Oct 2007 Gang of Handwringers...

Lost one of my Team Obama ground crew to Edwards because he was convinced that O would not strike back hard enough

Since the level of anxiety is so fucking high - let's just face our worse case scenario and get it out of the way. McLame wins.

You know what will happen if McLame win? Nothing. We'll have a majority in Congress and he won't be able to do much of anything.

Obama didn't beat Hillary by getting tough. He beat Hillary because the DNC got tough.

Although the DNC was able to influence the primaries in favor of Obama, they don't have the same big stick to bludgeon McCain with like they did Hillary.

Another possibility is that Obama and his team are not relying on the public polling to refine their message, but (in addition to longer term planning) internal polling.

But in the primary there were many who believed that Obama responded too late. I disagree with this. In many cases it appeared to me that Obama waited until some momentum had built up over an issue, allowing everyone to get "on the record" with their opinion. Then as everyone turned to focus on Obama, once everyone was listening, he would respond.

This allowed him to box everyone else in to a more fixed position. I can't count the number of times that pundits and candidates simply say the opposite of what their opponent says. (Remember the visit the troops issue.)

If you want another analogy, think defense lawyer. Obama lets the media and McCain to lay out the case, then pokes holes in it.

What tends to happen is that McCain and the media build a fantasy world around an issue which sounds great at first. As Obama lets them build their case, they collectively screw themselves.

But the process takes time. In the end, McCain, his surrogates and the media lose credibility.

Exactly. Enough handwringing and second-guessing. Obama has proven time and time again that he knows what he is doing. He is doing just fine.

Co-sign X 1,000. If we could figure out a way to harness the power created by hand-wringing, we'd have the "energy crisis" solved by the end of next week.

I respect Barack Obama for taking the high road, but sometimes when ur back is against the wall, you to start swinging. If the party is offering up help to the Obama camp to combat McCain attacks, then the Obama team should accept that help.

To reach the Campaign Headquarters by phone, please call: (866) 675-2008

I think Obama waits for a couple of reasons. Let the first impression be that he is above attack ads and such, letting his opponent be branded the negative ad attacker. This leads to the second point - he can then defend his own attack as as defending himself/counter punching. Everybody believes in self-defense so his actions are not really held against him.

The one ahead in the primary or the polls has that luxury. The opponent running behind has to try to shake things up to gain ground.

Too many D.C. pundits telling you how to run your campaign- a campaign where a skinny black man with a funny name won one of the most meteoric primaries when no one expected.

Obama is doing fine. It looks like he's winning a landslide right now. I've been nervy in the past, but it's time to stay calm and make a difference we can.

Sept/Oct it will seem like all hell break loose. But it's only August.

By running the campaign as a granular grassroots community organizer, he risks losing the macro-narrative to the Republican attack machine. Just wait until the Republican 527 over-the-top slander ads start any day now. McCain has laid the groundwork with his over-the-top negative campaign launched last week.

*heavy sigh*

The only thing I can figure, having already gone through this twice before, is that guys just cannot stop being armchair quarterbacks - they start that shit young - they are all convinced they could win the game if the coach would just put them in.

Yeah right - sure you would.

This is a valid point Greg. Maybe they do have a plan. It just isn't evident to those of us out in the hinterlands. As for your comment that:

I have to point out that the pretty much on target you're referring to is if you are okay with barely winning. The last two months of the primaries were a series of close contests, most of which Obama lost. Obama barely even swung back at Hillary who pummelled him on a daily basis. When he did swing back it was not what one could characterize as vigorous or forceful. I don't think a narrow victory is good enough for November.

Assuming he is elected, if Obama hopes to accomplish anything of any significance whatsoever, he will need huge Democratic majorities in Congress to do so (much larger than what we now have) because the Congress is filled with so many DINO's right now like McCaskill, Bayh, Rockefeller, et al that the Republicans have tactit control of the Senate on almost every issue and similar power on numerous issues in the house that are central to every major program/policy Democrats are interested in changing or implementing in the coming years. A narrow victory for our candidate for President does nothing at all, in fact it impedes our chances of, electing Democratic majorities in both houses large enough to actual implement any of the major policies Obama says he wants to implement. There's simply no evidence that Obama's team of advisors and campaign staff have any intention of crushing McCain as would be necessary to helping the rest of the Democratic ticket in the manner they ought to and if the primaries are offered as an example of what they will do it isn't very heartening.

Additionally, if we don't absolutely clobber the Republicans in a decisive manner we invite them to once again steal the Presidency. It is only in a close election that they can steal enough votes to alter the outcome. In a decisive victory we take that opportunity completely away from the Republicans.